I disagree about turning up the volume. There is danger in appearing to want to take political advantage. We are not preaching to the converted here, but to swing voters. What we need to do is catch the Bushies gloating about OBL and the tape, and make that the story. Here is an example:
NY DAILY NEWS
"We want people to think 'terrorism' for the last four days," said a Bush-Cheney campaign official. "And anything that raises the issue in people's minds is good for us."
A senior GOP strategist added, "anything that makes people nervous about their personal safety helps Bush."
He called it "a little gift," saying it helps the President but doesn't guarantee his reelection.
Worrying about the possibility that Kerry takes PA MI OH WI and MN, loses FL and wins the EC with 272.
It does seem more of a reach than a confident play, or a show of confidence. (Why not visit NJ or MI if you are confident of the win and want to make it bigger?).
I don't know who to tell about this, but the EC map and calculator on the left side of the MyDD home page currently shows Kerry winning IN. That seems unlikely.
Here is a blog by a volunteer for Kerry in Miami, showing Harassment by police.
cop car that came up in front of Kerry headquarters this morning, lights blazing. left his lights blazing while he systematically ticketed every car he could in front of the place. This happens several times a day. Have you ever heard of the police acting this way? Of course not, not since the 60's anyway. They pull up, acting like someone's been murdered, and ticket everything they can and tell anyone on the street to go inside. And you thought corruption was dead
Seems unlikely to make a big dif to me. People are so invested in the presidential contest that this itself will drive turnout up. And clearly GWB does not share your confidence about this, or he wouldn't be visiting OH so much -- he would be going for an increased margin of victory in MI NJ and PA.
> he should be in New Jersey
Not my point. My point is, if Bush were really as confident as you suggest, he would be in NJ. Or just camping out in MI and PA.
Seems to me that the only reason to worry about NH is if you are worried about the possibility of losing the EC by a narrow margin. That may itself be a sign of confidence, though, if that is the only thing they are worried about -- I don't know.
I've been following the ave and mean of the tracking polls as you suggest. The ave and mean dif between candidates has been btw 1 and 2 recently. And GWB has been sneaking up on 48. It is interesting that Zogby tracks the ave and mean difference btw the two candidates much better than any of the others.
I wish I could share your confidence about GWB needing better numbers than this to win. It is pretty clear from his recent comments that Zogby sees a Bush win. (Despite the source, see also http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak28.html )
Does anyone know why Zogby state polls are so oddly different in results than any others? Where is the info on Zogby's 2000 state polls?
I'm afraid there is something right about the previous post (not the part about it being good for the country, of course.) Whether for show or not, the Bushies seem to be planning an attacking schedule.
However, I hear GWB is also headed to NH, which is too puny to be any help in building a mandate. (Why not concentrate on MI or PA?)
Seems to me they are confident about FL, and worried only about the possibility (however large or small, it clearly is a possibility) Kerry wins PA MI OH MN and WI. Taking NH would be insurance against that combo.
this same page you link to (washingtonmonthly.com) has a great response to Bush's comments on the explosives:
>>>>>>>
NO KIDDING....A reader emails to say that he just heard the following from George Bush on CNN:
A political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not who you want as commander in chief.
You just can't make this stuff up.
--Kevin Drum 11:47
>>>>>>>>>>>
Kerry needs a response and I think he should go with this: "Bush actually said 'A political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not who you want as commander in chief.' My name is John Kerry and I endorse this message."
Also, I think Kerry needs to point out that Bush's insisting on so much uncertainty about the explosives is self-indicting -- his administration should have made sure there was no such uncertainty.
What is the best and quickest way to pressure the main stream media to cover the story? Is there a way to email them all at once with a web form somewhere?
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My view is still that we should attack the Bushies' gloating, but not seem to politicize the tape ourselves.
It is their complaining about politicizing the tape which is going to bite them in the ass ... if there is enough time for the story to blow up...
NY DAILY NEWS
"We want people to think 'terrorism' for the last four days," said a Bush-Cheney campaign official. "And anything that raises the issue in people's minds is good for us."
A senior GOP strategist added, "anything that makes people nervous about their personal safety helps Bush."
He called it "a little gift," saying it helps the President but doesn't guarantee his reelection.
The link is:
http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/247753p-212149c.html
No sense if worried about losing red states -- why not just go there?
Only makes sense if they are worried about the possibility of various close scenarios.
Worrying about the possibility that Kerry takes PA MI OH WI and MN, loses FL and wins the EC with 272.
It does seem more of a reach than a confident play, or a show of confidence. (Why not visit NJ or MI if you are confident of the win and want to make it bigger?).
cop car that came up in front of Kerry headquarters this morning, lights blazing. left his lights blazing while he systematically ticketed every car he could in front of the place. This happens several times a day. Have you ever heard of the police acting this way? Of course not, not since the 60's anyway. They pull up, acting like someone's been murdered, and ticket everything they can and tell anyone on the street to go inside. And you thought corruption was dead
He has pics too. Here is the link
http://karlgaj.com/blog/index.php?p=38
I put this in my diary too, though not sure if I did it right (first time).
Seems unlikely to make a big dif to me. People are so invested in the presidential contest that this itself will drive turnout up. And clearly GWB does not share your confidence about this, or he wouldn't be visiting OH so much -- he would be going for an increased margin of victory in MI NJ and PA.
> he should be in New Jersey
Not my point. My point is, if Bush were really as confident as you suggest, he would be in NJ. Or just camping out in MI and PA.
Seems to me that the only reason to worry about NH is if you are worried about the possibility of losing the EC by a narrow margin. That may itself be a sign of confidence, though, if that is the only thing they are worried about -- I don't know.
I wish I could share your confidence about GWB needing better numbers than this to win. It is pretty clear from his recent comments that Zogby sees a Bush win. (Despite the source, see also http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak28.html )
Does anyone know why Zogby state polls are so oddly different in results than any others? Where is the info on Zogby's 2000 state polls?
However, I hear GWB is also headed to NH, which is too puny to be any help in building a mandate. (Why not concentrate on MI or PA?)
Seems to me they are confident about FL, and worried only about the possibility (however large or small, it clearly is a possibility) Kerry wins PA MI OH MN and WI. Taking NH would be insurance against that combo.
>>>>>>>
NO KIDDING....A reader emails to say that he just heard the following from George Bush on CNN:
A political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not who you want as commander in chief.
You just can't make this stuff up.
--Kevin Drum 11:47
>>>>>>>>>>>
Kerry needs a response and I think he should go with this: "Bush actually said 'A political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not who you want as commander in chief.' My name is John Kerry and I endorse this message."
Also, I think Kerry needs to point out that Bush's insisting on so much uncertainty about the explosives is self-indicting -- his administration should have made sure there was no such uncertainty.