So in war, the way is to avoid what is strong and to strike at what is weak - Sun Tzu

Virtually everyone in the left blogosphere was disappointed at the nomination of Roberts to the SCOTUS.  Many who I respect on this site are gearing up to battle tooth and nail against this confirmation.  They see this as a matter of principle to save the country from Bush and his Theocon minions.  I respect this point of view... but is it the right one to be taking in this situation?  Should we fight a battle that at best we are on even ground with and at worse are on the defensive with, while avoiding the fight that is sure thing?  

Move not unless you see an advantage; use not your troops unless there is something to be gained; fight not unless the position is critical. If it is to your advantage, make a forward move; if not, stay where you are. Anger may in time change to gladness; vexation may be succeeded by content - Sun Tzu

Let's look at Robert's first.  From an ideological POV, this guy is a terrible nominee.  While his positions are not etched in stone due to a short time on the bench, the cases he argued and the groups he belongs too are insights into his thinking.  We can be reasonably suspicious he may try to overtune Roe v Wade.  We know he is not a friend of the enviroment.  We know he is not a friend of affirmative action or gay marriage.  This is troubling.

From a legal POV, Roberts has a lot going for him.  He went to one of the best Law Schools in the Country.  He clerked for the Chief Justice.  He has argued in front of the SCOTUS more than anyone else.  He knows the workings of the court and is completely qualified and respected as a legal mind (ignoring all political beliefs).  The only negative is that he has only been on the bench for 2 years.  This should be addressed during confirmation.

The major problem that lies here is that fron the logical POV of most people, he is more than qualified.  I would say that the average American either does not care about the political leanings or more likely, doesn't care about the nominee at all.  Unless a juicy scandal pops up, Roberts will be confirmed.  

Our options in battle are simple, we must filibuster him and fight what is strong... or we have to let him go to the floor.  I have always said a moral victory is worthless except for young children.  Filibustering gives us a win in the battle... however, we will have to keep fighting the same fight as Bush nominates another person.  It has the potential to backlash on us, which will cost us future battles.  

I look to Sun Tzu on this... Avoid what is strong and fight what is weak.  Roberts is a strong candidate...  Barring a filibuster he is a slam dunk.

The GOP does have several weaknesses that should be attacked however.  Rove is obviously number one.  We need to attack him now, especially since we know victory is emminent in this case.  Even if we fail to get the indictment, Bush and the GOP's support of him and the lying have damaged his credibility.  This has the potential to have far reaching implications in 2006 and 2008.  

First, it may force candidates to not use Rove as an adviser... Given his Machiavellian genius, I would say this is a good thing.

Two, it has sowed the seeds of distrust among the independents and conservative Dems.  Even moderate republicans are questioning the party.  We need to pounce on this distrust.  We need to start tying Rove and Delay together.  Business as usual, people that are corrupt and wield their power not for the people but for their own gain.  People that abuse the system.  Given recent polls, this is the weakest point the GOP has right now.  It will allow us to gain several seats in the house... We may not win the house, but it will put several people on notice who represent unsteady districts.  This also allows us to set the table for a 2008 run... winning the next major battle.  Given that in the next few years there will be a lot of SCOTUS noms, this is important.

So what is the best course of action?  Should we rubber stamp Roberts?  Hell no!  But should we use the filibuster... No.  The winner will be who controls the media's attention.  They want a bitter partisan battle that will create headlines.  We can't allow this.  We need to shift things back to Rove and Delay.  How do we do this?

My suggestion is that in the next few days, Reid needs to come out and make a statement.  He has done a preliminary review of Roberts record.  There are some things that he found very appealing and some things he found troubling.  There will be a lot of very tough questions to help dispell these troubling elements of the record.  However, the Dems will not filibuster Roberts, unless something extrordinary happens during the hearings.  During the same speech, Reid announces that he is petitioning the Senate to hold inquiries into the White Houses participation in a coverup of the Plume leak.  He is troubled by what is coming out, especially after the White House has denied for two years.  This administration has a history of this, and it is time that we as representatives of the American people work to restore faith and integrity of the government.  This puts Frist in a corner... Have the hearings and you hurt your primary chances by pissing off the party, don't have the hearings and you look as if you are part of the coverup (a message that will be spouted by every democrat).  

From here, the majority of our leadership and the progressive groups (including blogs etc) starts hitting this point and ties it in with Delay.  The corruption of government is terrible.  12 years of GOP control has produced leadership who care only about wielding their power like an ancient warlord and how much money.  They want to run your lives:  They want to control the things in your life that are most private:  your healthcare, what you watch on TV, listen to on the radio, download from the internet.  They want to force you to follow their beliefs.  This is a message that plays well with the liberal base and with the libertarian west.  Keep reframing gay rights and abortion as privacy issues.  Try to keep gun control out of the headlines unless it is about criminals and guns.  Hitting these few planks will pick us up a lot of support and seats in 2006... including many Sec of State and Governor Mansions... crucial for 2008.  

In the mean time, we have a small group of Senators (25 or so)... along with the abortion advocacy groups hitting the Roberts nomination.  Never use the filibuster rule... but work to defeat the nomination.  Find as much dirt as possible... Hammer the hell out of him during the hearings with a lot of tough questions.  But let the vote happen.  He will probably get confirmed... but if the Groups do their job the vote will be close.  If hit hard enough, you may even get some defectors from the GOP.  Party discipline will be important.

This stategy will helps us out alot.  By not focusing our whole on Roberts, we keep the pressure on the WH which hurts his agenda, legacy and the party.  This will help us win the war in the long run... Control of congress and the WH will allow us to shape the plethora of noms that will come out in the next few years...  Especially if Rhenquist and Breyer stay on until 2009.  

The art of war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy's not coming, but on our own readiness to receive him; not on the chance of his not attacking, but rather on the fact that we have made our position unassailable - Sun Tzu