New Hampshire: fulcrum for full voting investigation?

by Winger, Thu Dec 09, 2004 at 12:33:53 PM EST

Nader's New Hampshire recount matched the original optical count.  So in one state at least, we do not have to fear e-voting fraud.

Furthermore, the exit polls in New Hampshire match the verified (ie recounted) outcome.  Thus:

We have a concrete instance where U.S. exit polling on Nov 2 accurately matched a real, verified outcome
This may sound trivial, but I believe it is exceptionally important.

The Right Wing Noise Machine is vehemently attempting to blame the Florida/Ohio exit poll mismatches on the exit polls.  The fact that the exit polls match a verified vote in New Hampshire is a powerful point to make to disrupt the RWNM.

In other words, the New Hampshire exit poll match is a fulcrum for opening up a full investigation in Florida and Ohio.  I feel this point has been woefully overlooked.

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Sorry, not quite
The New Hampshire Exit Poll was actually off by a large amount.  The link you have is to the renormalized Exit Poll..i.e. the CNN numbers have been fudged to match the vote tallys.
by Zee2 2004-12-09 01:00PM | 0 recs
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Here are "original" exit polls:
Original exit polls.

If the New Hampshire exit polls were indeed off, that would be terrible for the "FRAUD!" folks, and great for the Right Wing Noise Machine.  For then New Hampshire would be a verified vote which mismatched the exit polls, thereby evidencing that the exit polls were indeed screwed up.  Hence, the Noise Machine is right: the Ohio/Florida mismatch with the exit polls was arguably down to the exit polls being inaccurate.

by Winger 2004-12-09 01:27PM | 0 recs
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Losing Credibility
Even in Kerry's home state & Democratic bastion of Massachusetts, Bush increased his vote by 4.5% from 2000 to 2004. Democrats control most of the election machinery down to the precinct level, so pro-Bush fraud is pretty unlikely. Why is it so hard for some here to accept the legitimacy of the Bush vote in other states, which often had smaller increases that were still enough to win? Citing New Hampshire as evidence that votes in other states that diverged from the exit polls are suspect, is just grasping for straws. Kerry lost Ohio & Florida, even if many wish it were different. The exit polls were wrong in most places, not just Ohio & Florida. Yet, you can still find posts here suggesting that Kerry won in a landslide that somehow wasn't reflected in the final count. Circulating those allegations without proof just undercuts Democratic credibility that will be sorely needed in 2006 & 2008.
by SLinVA 2004-12-09 02:58PM | 0 recs

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