We've often heard the argument that because Democratic primary participation is disproportionately higher in a particular state, Democrats stand a chance of performing better in that state in the general election.  After Alex Thurston made this argument about the upcoming Oklahoma Senate race, I decided to find out if this claim is actually true.

To validate this argument, we want to compare the percentage Democratic primary turnout (out of the total primary turnout) to the performance of the Democratic presidential candidate in the general election for each state.  To account for crossover voters, it makes sense to only consider state primaries that were competitive on both sides.  For simplicity's sake I decided to look at the 2000 election, but the 1988 election would work as well.  Data and full details on how I selected the states here.

Here are the states with competitive primaries:

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Just FYI:

1.         Q: What is the date of the Michigan Democratic Presidential Caucus?

A: Saturday, February 9, 2008 unless another state violates the scheduling rules of the Democratic National Committee, in which case the Michigan Democratic Party (MDP) will move its Caucus earlier, possibly on or before the offending state. Many of the pre-Caucus dates in this fact sheet will change if the Caucus is moved to an earlier date.

5.         Q: How will that delegation be selected?

A: The delegation will be selected in 3 steps.

First, on Saturday, February 9, 2008 (or earlier), voters will cast ballots in the Michigan Democratic Presidential Caucus where they will vote for their preferred candidate for President. Candidates for President who receive at least 15% of the vote will earn delegates to the National Convention in proportion to their vote.

Then, on March 29, 2008, 83 delegates and 15 alternates will be elected at 15 Congressional District Conventions based on the results of the February 9, 2008 Caucuses.

Finally, on May 17, 2008, based on the results of the February 9, 2008 Caucuses, 45 delegates, 6 alternates, 18 Convention Committee members and 4 pages will be elected at a meeting of the Democratic State Central Committee in Grand Rapids.

All of these elected delegates, alternates, committee members, and pages, together with 28 super-delegates - Michigan's Governor, 2 U.S. Senators, 6 U.S. Representatives and 17 Democratic National Committee Members and 2 others- will make up Michigan's delegation to the National Convention.

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According to Snoop, Imus' insults are not comparable to the way similar language is used in the Hip Hop community.

"It's a completely different scenario," said Snoop, barking over the phone from a hotel room in L.A. "[Rappers] are not talking about no collegiate basketball girls who have made it to the next level in education and sports. We're talking about ho's that's in the 'hood that ain't doing sh--, that's trying to get a n---a for his money. These are two separate things. First of all, we ain't no old-ass white men that sit up on MSNBC [the cable network home to Imus] going hard on black girls. We are rappers that have these songs coming from our minds and our souls that are relevant to what we feel. I will not let them mutha-----as say we in the same league as him."

I'm absolutely not saying that misogyny in rap is okay (it is not cool), but Snoop's right -- Imus was using the term in a completely different context than the way it is used in rap.

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One of the most essential elements of online political activism is that anyone can do it.  The more people who are watching their elected representatives and are invested in the political process, the better.  Thankfully, with some new (and a few old) tools, citizen watchdogging has gotten easier than ever.

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This diary entry is a summary.  Please see the full analysis for a more in-depth examination.

The Detroit News/WXYZ-TV EPIC/MRA poll just released new information on MI-Gov and MI-Sen.  Here's my election analysis based on the numbers:

Keep in mind that there are a lot of problems with the methodology of polling in general (question wording bias, bias because of the kinds of people who decide to respond, bias in phone ownership, answers differing from actual voting behavior, question order influences).  On top of that, no poll accounts for voter energy and election day GOTV.  Finally, remember what Mark Grebner had to say about ballot proposals.

In this particular poll, 57% females were questioned as opposed to 43% males.  The fact that females were more likely to answer the poll tells us two things.   It tells us that the method used to pick respondents is not representative of the population.  It also explains some of the difference in favor of Granholm and Stabenow (since women tend to favor Granholm and Stabenow by a greater margin than men).

With all of that in mind, onto the numbers...

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