I am a 41 year old politically active man but never before have I felt that the decisions that are made at the ballot box this year have this much relevance to my own personal situation. Being a late bloomer on both the kid and real estate waves, I am now deep into the diapers, not enough sleep, how are we going to afford a bigger house phase of life (the last part of the equation is particularly acute as I live in NYC).

Last week, in the midst of all the insanity, I closed on a house in Brooklyn. I felt like (and may actually have been) the only person closing on a house as the stock market plunged and credit ground to a halt. While I am confident of remaining employed and being able to make my mortgage payments, the enormity of my decision combined with the economic crisis and the impending birth of my second child, has left me on pins and needles as the election nears.

Like most everyone here I am hopeful, given the course of the last few weeks, that Obama is going to win the election and that the Democrats are going to increase their congressional majorities. But I am still struck by how much I personally have riding on it (and therefore, by extension, how much millions of others have riding on it as well). Will this crisis bankrupt me and my family? will my children know a better standard of living that I have?

Every election it seems like we are told this is the most important one ever. I have often found this to be a trite, hallow threat. But is there any doubt that this year this is spot on. I am sorry to make it sound like it is only because I have additional responsibilities that I care so much about the election, but the enormity of my decisions and the fragility of the economy make it impossible for me to separate the personal from the political this year.

We need a steady hand at the wheel right now and Barack Obama has totally crushed John McCain at demonstrating the temperment, the sensitivity and the strength that is needed in the next (44!) president. Lets get it done people. Give, volunteer, talk, email, cajole, persuade and march to victory on November 4th!

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UPDATE---I meant this diary as a reminder to myself and to others that despite the fact that the current track of the campaign looks favorable to our side, that we can't get complacent. Along the way I allowed myself a little detour into snarkville because I couldn't resist tweaking Jerome on his "Sarah Palin is the next great republican" thing. I know very well what is at stake and how quickly this thing can change and this diary was an attempt to get folks to catalogue reasons why we need to be on our guard.

In the year or so that I have been reading and participating in MyDD I have had a love/hate relationship with Jerome's odd hang dawg pessimism about the 2008 presidential race. From the days of the primary when he was the Lone Ranger of the web trying to douse the nascent flame of hope to the Republican convention where he was ready to anoint the completely "unready for primetime" Governor of Alaska as the next Ronald Reagan, slayer of Democrats, to this week where he threw a wet blanket over our surging poll numbers, Jerome has never failed to sprinkle a little acid on whatever good tidings come our way and it has often pissed me off.

Now however, I think we could really use this brand of thinking. Its all going a little too well at the moment--the polls are breaking our way, the economic circumstances are playing into our wheelhouse, and the McCain campaign's series of blunders have many feeling highly optimistic about our chances again. We need to buckle down for this last stretch and be ready for what will inevitably be a last throes sort of kitchen sink strategy from the Republicans. Its happening already in Michigan with their new Rev Wright ad. A little dose of realism verging on pessimism might be just the thing to hold our hopes down to a manageable level so that the heavy lifting can be undertaken with due seriousness.

So Jerome, or anyone else who wants to play voice of "reason" (or wet blanket, however you want to look at it)---why shouldn't we be optimistic? Why is John McCain not doomed to lose by his historic lust for deregulation in the banking industry, his close ties to mortgage and banking lobbyists and his inability to remember how many houses he owns? How can Sarah Palin be the real deal "on the national scene for decades" Republican when she can't even hold a press conference and has proven to be a serial liar on the campaign trail? What is it that I am not seeing right now? Because from where I sit, the Republican ticket is looking mighty foolish, inarticulate and sloppy, while the Obama campaign appears to be the "Daddy" one in this equation--confident, surefooted, and attuned to what the people want and need.

Counterarguments Jerome? Ready to puff Sarah Palin up into a giant among men again? Ready to predict a McCain victory?

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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/090 8/13529.html

Sorry for the short diary but the ad attached to the article above is a remarkable one I think. In two minutes (yes that's a lot of time to devote when you are watching football or whatever) Obama manages to perfectly crystalize the main issues in the current meltdown, and then manages to tie it into a message of unity and shared responsibility. I think this is just the right tone and whether or not this gets major airplay on television, this should become a viral campaign because if most middle class and working class voters watched this and then watched McCain attempt to discuss the economy and his solutions for middle class issues I have a hard time believing we could lose this election

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For many years I have been obsessed with the number 44. My obsession began as a collegiate joke back in the 80's and slowly morphed into a full blown, seeing the number everywhere, all consuming passion. The number 44 seemed to intersect with my life everywhere--at every important or momentarily significant moment up would pop my friend 44 (while hailing a cab to get to a job interview it would be cab #UB44, or while watching a movie, say "My Own Private Idaho", the character would say something about the lucky #44). I soon learned that there are 44 phonemes (pronounced sounds) in the English language (thanks "Hooked on Phonics"!), that it takes exactly 44 candles to fill a menorah for the duration of each chanukah (2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9=44) that hindus believe you go through 44 thousand (million?) reincarnations before reaching nirvana and other life changing realizations. When I became a film-maker and began my own production company of course I called it 44 Pictures (check it out at www.44pictures.com).

During this post collegiate time I of course became politically  aware. The first presidential campaign that I was active in was the disastrous Mondale/Reagan blow out in 84. Then I suffered through Dukakis, enjoyed winning for a change with Bill Clinton, suffered crushing hopeless "defeat" despite winning in 2000 and then along comes 2004.

I understand immediately and acutely that if Kerry defeats Bush he becomes the 44th president and I unfortunately just don't see it or feel it. Of course I desperately want Bush to lose, for the nightmare to be over and I look to see whether 44 can help me out here, but to no avail. There is just no way that John Kerry was dynamic enough (groovy enough?) to be the 44th president. So I suffer through the last 4 years along with everyone else.

Meanwhile, enter the 2008 campaign. I seize early on on Obama as my horse in the race. He is everything the 44th President should be in my book (universalist, charismatic, from a culturally diverse background, a complete break from the parade of crusty white guys who have preceded him). So imagine my absolute crushing heartbreak when I discover the pink website whose name shall remain unsaid. Oh, what bad bad karma to have such a hideous eyesore polluting my precious numerical obsession. Can't tell if its bad karma for me or for them so I decide to ignore it and focus on Barack as 44.

Lo and behold, he is nominated and I am overjoyed. We will have our 44 in shining armor after all. I mean McCain can't possibly be #44. For everything that number stands for he just can't possibly win. I am of course confident in this feeling (as I remain confident) but am dismayed to find that the website on which I blog (myDD) is mired in doubts about this proposition.

So here is what I say to you all: forget the primaries, forget pink websites, eliminate from your minds even the concept that John McCain could possibly ever be the 44th president of the US, embrace my glorious number 44, embrace our fantastic candidate for President and ride the karmic wave all the way to the White House. Stop looking for reasons why this is too good to be true and allow yourself to soak in the notion that a brilliant, handsome, thoughtful person of mixed race will be our next President! America what a country! 44 what a concept! Dig it.

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Hello everybody. I have just summoned the energy to reengage in this discussion here at MyDD. Like many of you I experienced a severe primary burnout syndrome from which I am just now recovering. While I was feverish with excitement at the thought of an Obama victory back in the heady days of March, the long slog through the rest of the primary campaign had the unfortunate effect of dulling the thrill and causing a bit of anticlimax factor when Obama finally pulled it out.

So I have taken some time away from the boards in order to refresh my thoughts and regain my equilibrium. I am happy to say it was a good decision, as I now emerge ready to duke it out with a more appealing combatant, John McCain. I take solace from the near unanimity of the polls in favor of Obama, though I am mindful that nobody won an election based on June polling. I am also heartened by what appears to be a slow but inexorable healing process here on MyDD.

The fall campaign is lining up to be a momentous one, pitting generation against generation, with incredibly important cultural and political ramifications. The key to victory will be the success (or lack thereof) of the Obama campaign in translating the appeal that the upscale, highly educated Obama voter feels for the candidate into terms that resonate with the lower income, more conservative voters in the suburban/rural areas that he needs to win. It should be a no-brainer, but we mustn't be complacent and we should push the campaign to broaden their appeal to the crucial voting blocs that went for Clinton in the primaries. Early signs look good, but lets take this thing all the way in November.

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Barack Obama gave what I consider to be an overwhelmingly important and gracious speech this evening. He spent a lot of time sincerely praising Hillary Clinton for her personal strength and the strength of her campaign, as well as the groundbreaking nature of her candidacy.

He did this on the night when he might well have expected to have the stage to himself, and didn't. And he did this on a night where he might have expected Hillary Clinton to similarly (and not tepidly) praise him. This showed a tremendous amount of restraint and respect.

He then proceeded to deliver a remarkable framing of the choice between himself and McCain, turning notions of patriotism and fear-mongering on their heads. And he did so in a manner that electrified not only the crowd on hand but a nationwide audience. He announced himself forcefully and eloquently, and talked about a lot of things that supporters of Hillary Clinton are likely to care about.

So, my question dear Clinton supporters (or at least the ones still holding out against Obama)....did this speech do anything to move you to him personally or politically. I hope it did but I am curious to hear some responses.

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So this is what it has come down to for the Democratic nomination for President in 2008. Next Tuesday night, all of the votes in the primary season will have been decided, a compromise will have been reached on FL and MI and the party will come together around our presumptive nominee. One more week and the party will sail into the General Election with a freshly minted new standard bearer, the groundbreaking Senator from Illinois Barack Obama. All of the intra-party huffing and puffing of the nomination battle can finally dissolve into the steely intensity and unified purpose of the General Election. Democrats of all stripes can come together under the banner of a new generation of leadership, ready to expand the electoral map and work with our partners in the congress for a true period of realignment in American politics.

No matter who your horse is/was in this nomination battle I think it will quickly become apparent that we have made the right choice. The strategic and message discipline of the Obama team's nomination campaign will have placed us on solid ground for the fall and the intensity of participation on the Democratic side provides a springboard of energy that will catapult Obama to a powerful position as the General gets underway in earnest.

I just feel it in my bones.

This is going to be the most fulfilling and reassuring election in modern American political history. The youth and groundbreaking nature of Obama comes at just the right time in our political cycle (and for our tattered national psyche).  I fear not that Obama will fail to win over our brethren from the Clinton camp. So many of the things that consume these boards now will be nothing more than amusing memories as we rise up to meet our real opponents head on, with the political landscape breaking in our favor.

This is my vision for the summer, and it begins next week!

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Why is it that day after day we are bombarded with front page threads like today's from Jerome, hashing out the various permutations of the popular vote?

First of all, there is no way to accurately count the popular vote in the Democratic nominating process. Given the fact that many of the caucus states don't report their totals, and that Obama was not on the ballot in MI (in anticipation of the "he took his name off himself" comments I will say that why he took his name off the ballot doesn't have anything to do with the fact that nonetheless you can't count Michigan's popular vote accurately) popular vote is not something that can be used to fairly decide the nomination, nor was it ever something that was being considered as being relevant to the outcome going in.

In fact, in Jerome's post there is lots of talk about how Obama is winning in 4 of the 6 ways of measuring but that Hillary might be able to overcome him in two of these with a big win in PR. That right there tells you that this is an absurd way of measuring who should be the nominee. Should we split the nomination into six?

Like it or not, we have a system of representative democracy in which popular vote does not technically count, in terms of how it represents the final outcome. In every election we select delegates who vote on our behalf. The popular vote, while reflective of the will of the people generally, is relegated to a secondary factor. MyDD poster Professor Reo responded to Jerome's post by saying that us Democrats would have been thrilled to win the presidency in 2004 had Ohio gone our way, despite the fact that Bush won by 3 million votes overall.

So why oh why do we keep seeing Jerome and others agonizing over the various permutations of the mythic, impossible to accurately tabulate, popular vote?

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After reading all the doom and gloom and bickering in the rec list and elsewhere on this site, I just need to post a thread talking about how, after the most talked about, scintillating and envigorating primary season in my memory, I am so excited and pleased Barack Obama will be the nominee of the party. I refuse to get caught up in the back and forth between Clinton and Obama camps anymore. I just want to breath in and think of how proud I am of our party, and of our nation. I have never before invested so heavily in a candidate, either financially or emotionally, and it is all paying off. I really hope a few other people around here can join me in experiencing a few moments of real, unadulterated, non-cynical joy at the prospect of President Obama taking the oath of office next January. Won't we project such a different and better face to the world?

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WOW! What cool and thoughtful dialogue we have going in here. Thanks to everybody who is arguing and discussing with respect. This is a cool thread.

This is a diary that seeks to explore the mystery of why the democratic primary electorate in the Appalachian region votes so differently than the rest of the country.

It seems that some people want to give West Virginia an outsized influence in the debate over whether or not Barack Obama has a problem securing the vote of blue collar white voters. I do not pretend to be able to dissect the psychology of these voters, and certainly do not ascribe to them any nefarious motivations such as fear of an African American candidate. But for whatever reason WVa's white voters turned out for Clinton in numbers that are different from white voters in most other parts of the country.

Yesterday, another poster had a chart up that showed the counties nationwide in which Hillary Clinton had won by margins larger than 65-35. Almost all of these counties came in Appalachia, and the only hole in the Appalachian section of the map at this point were the states of WVa and KY. Filling them in completes the cycle of Appalachian regions that Clinton can expect to win overwhelmingly. Again, why this is, I have no idea but it is so clearly regionally delineated that I feel I can say that with good confidence that Obama has a problem among Appalachian voters (and I say this as a strong Obama supporter).

At this point in this long race, Obama has won in predominantly white states on the west coast, the plains, the midwest, and the southeast. This demonstrates a breadth of support that is not shaken by the mysterious loss of support in Appalachia. It is foolish to suggest that because Obama seems to not connect with voters in Appalachia that he can't win the general, or even that he wouldn't be as strong a candidate as HRC.

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