Texas System Worries Clinton Backers

The Washington Post today has a story which describes some concerns over the Texas "two step" primary/caucus system.

Supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton are worried that convoluted delegate rules in Texas could water down the impact of strong support for her among Hispanic voters there, creating a new obstacle for her in the must-win presidential primary contest.

Several top Clinton strategists and fundraisers became alarmed after learning of the state's unusual provisions during a closed-door strategy meeting this month, according to one person who attended.

What Clinton aides discovered is that in certain targeted districts, such as Democratic state Sen. Juan Hinojosa's heavily Hispanic Senate district in the Rio Grande Valley, Clinton could win an overwhelming majority of votes but gain only a small edge in delegates. At the same time, a win in the more urban districts in Dallas and Houston -- where Sen. Barack Obama expects to receive significant support -- could yield three or four times as many delegates.

This is troublesome on multiple levels and leads to many questions:

Why is the Clinton campaign only now discovering the nuances of the Texas primary/caucus system when they've had over a year to prepare a workable strategy?

How can a campaign be so inept as to not fully research the primary system in every state when running for the presidency?

Is this something on the level of believing they would be met as liberators on February fifth and thus had no follow up plan?

It's amazing to me that the campaign had been described as the most disciplined only a few short months ago has come apart at the seams. The facade of competence was ripped away to reveal the truth where loyalty was treasured above competence.

That's what we have in the White House now, and the nation has suffered greatly from one president who surrounded himself with yes men who had absolute loyalty and were frightened to tell the truth to the boss.

How can a candidate be ready on day one when she wasn't ready for February 6?

Tags: Hillary Clinton, texas (all tags)

Comments

61 Comments

A candidate could win the popular vote

but could lose the delegate vote.

Texas should be an interesting race.

by puma 2008-02-18 03:09AM | 0 recs
Re: A candidate could win the popular vote

The Texas Two Step measures two qualities of the candidates.

First it measures the breadth of support with the primary.

Then it measures the depth of support with a caucus.

Both are important measures of support.

by Walt Starr 2008-02-18 03:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas is insignificant

Ickes moved it to Puerto Rico two days ago. They msut have decided they ahve to move it again after they discovered they have little chance at making up the dleegates in Texas.

Then Penn moved the firewall to the lounge of the Denver Hyatt Regency later that same day.

by Walt Starr 2008-02-18 04:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas System Worries Clinton Backers

The gigantic mistake Hillary made was assuming she would be the next president.

by soros 2008-02-18 03:10AM | 0 recs
Note to self

Hilzoy if just marvelous here:

Note to self: If I ever run for office and base my campaign on the idea that I am ready to lead from day one, I must remember to actually run an effective campaign.

by Bill White 2008-02-18 06:09AM | 0 recs
To be fair to Hillary's campaign

NO ONE could have anticipated this, either that

(a) The race would still be going on this late; or

(b) That Texas would have enacted such goofy arcane rules.

Gosh, what do you guys expect? She's only human! And those Texas law books make such difficult reading.

by Bill White 2008-02-18 03:15AM | 0 recs
Re: To be fair to Hillary's campaign

Is there are article out there saying the Obama camp was taken by surprise? I heard they were out and about in Texas explaining the rules to everyone. Seems like they were prepared...

by illlaw1 2008-02-18 04:46AM | 0 recs
Re: To be fair to Hillary's campaign

Obama knew how important Texas would be last year.

He drew a huge crowd in Austin in late February of 2007.

Obama had forethought and a strategy. Hillary expected tobe greeted as a liberator on February 5.

by Walt Starr 2008-02-18 04:50AM | 0 recs
Re: To be fair to Hillary's campaign

Can't you grok snark?

:-)

Cheers!

by Bill White 2008-02-18 05:57AM | 0 recs
Re: To be fair to Hillary's campaign

Oh...cry me a river!

She knew all along that Obama had become a political superstar.  When Obama raised more money then her in the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2007, that should have been an even LOUDER clue that she was going to have tough competition.  If her campaign was so arrogant to believe that it would be over and they would have the nomination in the bag after February 5 and spent all their money and made no alternative plans for after Super Tuesday, then that's their problem.

Also...her campaign had plenty of notice about the Texas rules and had plenty time to strategize.  They obviously didn't.

It has become a cliche that if you want to see what kind of president a candidate will, then look at how they run their campaign.  For Hillary it is VERY telling.

by mikelewis68 2008-02-18 06:20AM | 0 recs
Doesn't MyDD grok snark?

She knew all along that Obama had become a political superstar.  When Obama raised more money then her in the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2007, that should have been an even LOUDER clue that she was going to have tough competition.  If her campaign was so arrogant to believe that it would be over and they would have the nomination in the bag after February 5 and spent all their money and made no alternative plans for after Super Tuesday, then that's their problem.

Well yeah, that kinda was my point.

Cheers!

by Bill White 2008-02-18 06:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Doesn't MyDD grok snark?

I guess I'm a little slow at times.

By the way...I know a Bill White.  Are you a lawyer in San Francisco? Law firm of Shute Mihaly & Weinberger LLP?

by mikelewis68 2008-02-18 06:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Doesn't MyDD grok snark?

Nope, Chicago

Not the Mayor of Houston, either. ;-)

Nor that libertarian extremist.

Nor the former middle linebacker for the Detroit Lions.

But I've been told that: "Everybody knows a Bill White"

by Bill White 2008-02-18 06:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Doesn't MyDD grok snark?

I guess I'm a little slow at times.

By the way...I know a Bill White.  Are you a lawyer in San Francisco? Law firm of Shute Mihaly & Weinberger LLP?

by mikelewis68 2008-02-18 06:46AM | 0 recs
Re: To be fair to Hillary's campaign

Oh...cry me a river!

She knew all along that Obama had become a political superstar.  When Obama raised more money then her in the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2007, that should have been an even LOUDER clue that she was going to have tough competition.  If her campaign was so arrogant to believe that it would be over and they would have the nomination in the bag after February 5 and spent all their money and made no alternative plans for after Super Tuesday, then that's their problem.

Also...her campaign had plenty of notice about the Texas rules and had plenty time to strategize.  They obviously didn't.

It has become a cliche that if you want to see what kind of president a candidate will, then look at how they run their campaign.  For Hillary it is VERY telling.

by mikelewis68 2008-02-18 06:21AM | 0 recs
It's HARD WORK!

by jgkojak 2008-02-18 06:27AM | 0 recs
Blaming HER for this?

Are we now going to posit that the person with the best campaign strategy makes for the best president?  Do these individuals have to be such micro-managers that they have to get involved in each and every district's delegate composition?

Look, there's plenty to criticize the Clinton campaign for.  But you as a candidate do have to put a lot of trust in the so-called experts who run these things.  If you want to say that somehow SHE is at fault for not knowing how the delegates would play out in Texas districts, that's a pretty tough standard.  I'm thinking she's got a lot of other things on the plate right now, such as trying to convince people that she's the best candidate.  

by DaTruth 2008-02-18 03:26AM | 0 recs
ABSOLUTELY Blaming HER for this!

It goes to the judgement issue once again.

Poor judgement put poor "yes men"in charge of her failing campaign.

by Walt Starr 2008-02-18 03:28AM | 0 recs
Here's where your logic is fatally flawed...

Again, if you're trying to make the point that the best campaign strategy makes for the best president, I have two words (and one initial) for you:

George W. Bush

Obviously, his campaign turned out to be better than John Kerry's and Al Gore's.  So, I guess you're saying that GW Bush, then, is obviously better as Commander-in-Chief than these other two men.

Case closed, dude.  You've lost this argument so badly that it's embarrassing for you.  

by DaTruth 2008-02-18 04:03AM | 0 recs
Ridiculous

The more apt analogy is to the Bush IRaq War plan.

Hillary was going to be greeted with flowers and as a liberator on February 5, so there was no need to plan for any other contingency.

Hillary Clinton is unfit for command. I wouldn't trust her to manage a convenience store after her complete mismanagement of her campaign.

by Walt Starr 2008-02-18 04:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Here's where your logic is fatally flawed...

Hillary (and her staff) FAILED to read the NIE and made a bad call on the Iraqi war authorization;

Hillary (and her staff) FAILED to read the rules concerning the Texas Two Step nominating process.

Hillary (and her staff) FAILED to figure out how to win in caucus states.

In all these instances BAD results are arising from laziness and a failure to anticipate and a failure to understand the rules of the game.

by Bill White 2008-02-18 04:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Not so fast there, Tex

If Hillary cannot win more delegates than Obama HOW can she possibly be better at winning against McCain?

by Bill White 2008-02-18 04:19AM | 0 recs
Re: ABSOLUTELY Blaming HER for this!

This coming from the candidate who:

- plagarizes stump speeches
-plagarizes his opponents economic speech

  • flip flops on campaign promises
  • flip flops on deriding independent 3rd party expendtures
  • says he opposes kyl-lieberman but doesn't show up to vote AND sponsors a bill that does the exact same thing

Let's not talk about what piss poor character and judgement Obama has.

by world dictator 2008-02-18 04:25AM | 0 recs
Re: ABSOLUTELY Blaming HER for this!

Wow, I'm not a part of the Obama campaign, but thank you for thinking I am.

Your points are noted, but I would put it to you that the message fo change was palagarized by the Clinton campaign as soon as the mood of the antion was finally read by her incompetent campaign staff.

Really, you're efforts are tiring. I'm saddened for you in that your candidate has proven to be inadequate to the task. She has been measured and found wanting.

by Walt Starr 2008-02-18 04:36AM | 0 recs
Re: ABSOLUTELY Blaming HER for this!

HRC's message was change and yes we can before Obama eh?

by illlaw1 2008-02-18 04:51AM | 0 recs
Re: ABSOLUTELY Blaming HER for this!

What plagiarism? You can't plagiarize an idea, only specific and relatively long series of words. The world would be a much sadder place if only the originator could advocate for an idea. Hillary's plans would be a lot shorter too, because her proposals aren't generally original to her. And they shouldn't be! Presidents are implementors, not think-tank employees.

by curtadams 2008-02-18 04:53AM | 0 recs
Who plagiarized whom?

Deval Patrick borrowed his lines from Obama. They are close friends and they share media consultants. In the political world that's not plagiarism.

by elrod 2008-02-18 06:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Blaming HER for this?

Just remember that the President also appoints people such as the "National Security Adviser" another person who sought to evade blame for a screwing up due to a "failure to anticipate"

This episode simply does represent a failure of her campaign which absolutely reflects on her managerial and executive competence. Same with the caucus rules.

Obama did his homework on the caucus system and on Texas and Clinton did not. It really is very simple.

by Bill White 2008-02-18 04:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Absolutely!

This is exactly why Obama supporters are called cultists.

The only thing running a national campaign has in common with running a national executive is the word national.

In fact running a primary campaign and running a general campaign aren't even the samething.

And considering that Clinton has raised more money and gotten more votes than anyone not named Obama, you can hardly call her campaign poor.

by world dictator 2008-02-18 04:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Absolutely!

Uh. I don't know about the money part but she certainly trails in the popular vote.

by illlaw1 2008-02-18 04:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Absolutely!

And considering that Clinton has raised more money and gotten more votes than anyone not named Obama, you can hardly call her campaign poor.

Sure I can call her campaign poor.

Obama has gotten more votes and raised more money than Clinton and that is due to him running a superb campaign with almost no name recognition against a person who was the presumptive nominee for more than a year.

It is further due to the fact that she has run a poor campaign because she had EVERY ADVANTAGE going into the race, and she blew it.

by Walt Starr 2008-02-18 04:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Blaming HER for this?

Clinton and an ex-president can't campaign better than an empty suit. That says a lot about their preparedness.

by illlaw1 2008-02-18 04:48AM | 0 recs
the clinton's

never believed that this would go past 2/5 - russert dug out a quote from december  where hillary admits as such. that is why they had no money afterwards and no strategy for the smaller states. I think it would be a bit unfair to think that hrc should've expected a long drawn out raceack in the summer/fall, when she was 30 pts ahead in most states. but once december rolled around, there is no excuse for not planning for all contingencies. the arrogance is what killed her campaign.

by highgrade 2008-02-18 03:32AM | 0 recs
Re: the clinton's

And that very fact makes Hillary Clinton unfit for the role of Commander in Chief.

Look at what failure to plan for more contingencies than the most favorable outcome did for us in Iraq.

by Walt Starr 2008-02-18 03:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas System Worries Clinton Backers

The Clinton campaign is putting a great deal of effort into Texas.  The problem is not any late realization.  The probably is that the system is set up to thwart the will of the people.   The undemocratic nature of the Texas system is just one more reason why it's absurd to suggest that the amount of "pledged delegates" reflects the will of the people.  

by markjay 2008-02-18 04:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas System Worries Clinton Backers

I knew that one was coming.

Looks like Texas will not matter in March, too.

Nearly all states allocate delegates based upon turnout in prior elections. The problem is, the Latino districts Hillary does well in failed to turn out in 2004 and 2006 when the turnout would have altered the delegates allocated tot hose districts.

So should we change the texas rules now?

Sheesh!

by Walt Starr 2008-02-18 04:33AM | 0 recs
Actually

Actually, the problem for Hillary isn't that Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley didn't turn out in 2004 and 2006 but that so many of them voted for George W. Bush. In a reversal of the Indies-to-Obama strategy of elsewhere, in Texas core Democrats will be Obama's greatest strength.

by elrod 2008-02-18 06:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas System Worries Clinton Backers

Maybe a lot of them were not even citizens in 2004.  Is this really what Obama supporters come down to?  Arguing that a system that allocates delegates based on who turned out four years ago rather than who turns out now is fair and democratic?

by markjay 2008-02-18 06:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas System Worries Clinton Backers

Then it's just too damned bad!

The time to change the system was years ago. Whining about it now does nothing.

by Walt Starr 2008-02-18 07:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas System Worries Clinton Backers

Except of course the problem is late realization. They shouldn't be surprised about anything that they could have known beforehand.

by illlaw1 2008-02-18 04:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas System Worries Clinton Backers

Fascinating. And how exactly is Clinton proposing superdelegates respond to the will of the people?  I so love consistency.

by curtadams 2008-02-18 04:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas System Worries Clinton Backers

Them's the Texas rules- live with 'em.

You don't think that a national campaign is gonna have to deal with ballot and voter disenfranchisement issues (FL and OH anyone)???

by jgkojak 2008-02-18 06:30AM | 0 recs
Why not?

Why shouldn't all the primaries assign their delegates based on the popular vote? Why do primaries have to exhibit the same kind of anti-democratic, screwed-up gerrymandering and weighting that make our national elections so problematic?

Whatever happened to the concept of one person, one vote? Surely you weren't happy with the outcome of the 2000 election. Why don't we just have the winner of the popular vote should win the nomination?

And screw caucuses--I find the whole idea of election by peer pressure among those able and willing to spend three hours at a caucus to be screwy to the max.

by Inky 2008-02-18 05:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Why not?

Then the time to start changing the primary system for 2008 would have been 2004.

It's too late to change things now. If you planned to run in 2008, you should have known how primaries are run.

by Walt Starr 2008-02-18 05:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Why not?

I don't disagree--although I don't think we'll ever have a truly democratic and fair process. I also think that we shouldn't make a bigger thing of Clinton's team's struggles with a very arcane system than what it is. Obama does well in caucuses, just like McGovern did well in caucuses in 1972--that's because working people and parents are less likely to attend these event, whereas students (when energized) are more likely to attend. Now I imagine that Obama is a better campaigner than McGovern, and it's also true that Nixon, circa, 1972, was a more formidable opponent than McCain, circa 2008, is.

by Inky 2008-02-18 06:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Why not? --> TX ain't no firewall

I am entirely okay with the idea that Hillary has many good points even if her campaign failed to grok the TX rules.

BUT!

In that case, how can TX possibly be a firewall?

Unless Clinton closes the delegate gap on March 4th (and trading OH for TX won't accomplish that) how can she possibly win the nomination?

by Bill White 2008-02-18 06:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Why not? --> TX ain't no firewall

Did I say that Texas was a firewall? Or even that I thought Clinton would win the nomination? I'm confused.

by Inky 2008-02-18 06:31AM | 0 recs
Primaries vs. Caucuses

These two systems measure two different aspects of support for a potential nominee.

Primaries measure the breadth of support for a potential nominee, and do it quite well. By allocating delegates based upon past turnout in elections, it becomes an even more accurate indication of the breadth of support a candidate should get in the general election.

Caucuses measure the depth of support. This is important because highly motivated supporteres are necessary to get out the vote in the general election.

Any candidate needs both a wide breadth of support and a vast depth of support in order to win the general election.

So if you don't like the current system, the time is now to start changing it for 2012.

by Walt Starr 2008-02-18 05:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Primaries vs. Caucuses

Caucuses measure the depth of support. This is important because highly motivated supporteres are necessary to get out the vote in the general election.

That's one place I have to hand it to Team Obama--it was pretty amazing the way they took the theories of Saul Alinsky and, via Camp Obama, converted the techniques of issue advocacy into advocacy for a charismatic candidate who speaks of bipartisanship and finding common ground with the GOP.

I have reasons to be dubious of this approach to politics, but only time will tell how this all pans out.

by Inky 2008-02-18 06:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Primaries vs. Caucuses

Back in September & October my sig line at Daily Kos proposed that this primary would be a fight between opposite interpretations of Saul Alinsky's legacy.

But given the extensive Camp Obama network that has been built, if he wins the nomination and if Hillary Clinton supports him with enthusiasm we have a very real shot at a monumental landslide in November across the entire ticket.

by Bill White 2008-02-18 06:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Primaries vs. Caucuses

We'll see. I'm not sure what's going to happen. I doubt we'll have a monumental landslide (why should former GOP voters support Democrats down-ticket when Obama has expressed such a willingness to work with Republicans?). But I'm not eager to be proven right on that prediction.

But why do you think Hillary should support Obama "with enthusiasm" when Michelle Obama has said she doesn't even know whether she could support Clinton at all if she wins the nomination. Hillary probably act more graciously than Michelle did in making that comment--but don't you think that Michelle should be called out on that comment?

by Inky 2008-02-18 06:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Primaries vs. Caucuses

Q: Why should Hillary support Obama with enthusiasm in the Fall?

A: To preserve and enhance her legacy and Bill's legacy.

A: For the good of America and the Democratic Party.

A: To make sure her phone calls to POTUS get answered in 2009 and thereafter?

by Bill White 2008-02-18 06:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Primaries vs. Caucuses

I noticed that you didn't answer my question about Michelle Obama. As I said--I'm sure that Hillary will be gracious,--why can't you concede that Michelle's remark was less than that?

by Inky 2008-02-18 07:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Primaries vs. Caucuses

That whole Michelle "controversy" is being blown out of proportion for intra-party partisan purposes.

Clinton needs to start a food fight if she is to catch up. I'm not going to cooperate.

by Bill White 2008-02-18 07:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Why not?

We may all not like the system (Caucus, etc) but THOSE ARE THE RULES and both campaigns were aware of  them.  Hillary chose, arrogantly, to ignore the caucus states.

by jgkojak 2008-02-18 06:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Why not?

I never tried to imply otherwise--I'm just pointing out that the process is rather anti-democratic. It's like discussing the electoral college--apparently we're never going to get rid of it, but should we be allowed to belly-ache about it from time to time?

by Inky 2008-02-18 06:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Why not?

The belly-ache should be before or after an on-going campaign and not while others are proposing to change the rules in the middle of the game.

by Bill White 2008-02-18 06:42AM | 0 recs
the thing that concerns me

is not that I believe hw u run a campaign correlates exactly to how u run the country. its the decision making process, and how one reacts to pressure. first, no one shuld go thru life believing something is owed to you. the hrc campaign was not only supremely arrogant, but also lazy. secondly, as soon as they encountered resistance, it seems like they self imploded. there was abreakdown in communication and mistrust w/n the campaign. the candidate was apparently kept in the dark about critical information from her most trusted advisors (sound familiar?). the goal posts are constantly being changed to catch up to expectations (in iraq we went from wanting to remake the middle east to a democratic iraq to an iraq where 30000 people aren't  dying a month!). no one is held accountable until it is too late, and financial prudence is thrown out f the window. it's not a good introduction to ones ability to manage people and a message.

by highgrade 2008-02-18 05:05AM | 0 recs
What about the OH & TX firewall?

If Obama is leading by ~150 or 175 delegates on March 3rd; and

Clinton wins OH but loses the delegate count in TX; and

On March 5th Obama is still leading by ~150 or 175 delegates.

Isn't the primary campaign pretty much over?

by Bill White 2008-02-18 06:01AM | 0 recs
Yes

Right now Obama is up about 134 delegates. After tomorrow - supposing he wins a tight race in Wisconsin and comfortably in Hawaii - he'll be up around 145. With Texas unable to close the gap, a 20 point victory for Hillary in Ohio would only pull him down to about a 115-120 vote lead. Even a major PA win would bring him down to 85-90. In the meantime you have Mississippi and Wyoming to recover any OH losses. He'll be up 100 after April 22 heading into May.  That leaves NC, OR, SD, MT and probably IN on his side for the taking and KY, WV and Guam for her. PR caucuses will probably go to Obama, with the governor supporting him (and, yes, Jesse Jackson really did win PR). At the end of it he'll be up 100 at least. If you throw in FL for good measure that makes him up 70. No way do the superdelegates throw the race to Hillary facing that kind of margin unless she polls much better against McCain at that point.

by elrod 2008-02-18 06:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas System Worries Clinton Backers


The operative term is "Clinton operatives discovered"--

It's a pretty late date to be figuring this out just now.  There ARE Dems in Texas who are Clinton backers- and their campaign should have been in tune with the Texas rules MONTHS ago (as Obama's campaign was).

If this the team you REALLY want running the general election campaign for Dems?

by jgkojak 2008-02-18 06:26AM | 0 recs

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