Who has been running against the DC Establishment for months and months and months? I think it's Obama. Just because he doesnt' scream and make unreal promises about ending free trade and creating a workers' paradise, doesn't mean he's not an anti-DC candidate.
I love Edwards. I really do. But to say that an Obama victory wouldn't cause a jolt is ridiculous. A Hillary loss will cause the cascading jolt, not Obama or Edwards win. Amongst non-politicos, Hillary is ALREADY NOMINATED. It would seriously shock the system for most casual observers who haven't really followed the race, but regularly vote in the later primary states. In fact - one might say that the jolt will be bigger than the Howard Dean crash, because Dean's support was stronger but smaller, while Hillary's is large but very thin.
Actually, there are varying polls. One famously had her at 51%, but most have had her well below that number in the low 40s. And combine that with the fact that her numbers against Romney and Thompson are usually around 50, and yes, you're right, this is a bit ludicrous...
But it's not a "lie", since there was a pretty famous poll that made the case.