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myDD - skin
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It just seems like he wouldn't do this unless he knows that he'll need to. Is the deadline for filing as an independent the day of the primary? Otherwise why start collecting signatures so soon? (And why announce it at all?)
I know very little about the science of politics, but people here do, right? What are the chances that Lieberman will formally announce that he's leaving the party two or three days before the primary, and then spin any result under 100% as a loss for Lamont?