Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

It is almost over.

Losing 3 out of 4 of the Super Tuesday II states, including two of the largest states in the nation. One of them a crucial swing state for Democrats' November hopes.

Your own adviser saying you aren't ready to take a 3 AM call.

A political fixer who helped raise you money and whom your house is linked with is facing down Patrick Fitzgerald -- the man who bagged Scooter Libby -- in court.

What is the final straw?

Is it John Edwards coming out to endorse your opponent before the North Carolina primary?

Is it another aide fired ('resigned') after making a monstrous remark?

Is it the pressure of doubt knowing you haven't been able to win any of the most important large states which Dems MUST carry in November? Is this the strain which saw you take the day off a few days ago?

*
*

Senator Barack Obama has run a solid campaign. There is much about the campaign I have problems with personally, but I applaud what the senator has been able to accomplish in his run and the precedent he has set for future campaigns.

So I come today to pay my respects. As the wheels of the "Obama 2008" bus came careening off following Super Tuesday II, you almost felt bad for the 1st-term senator. Because you think that he and his not-ready-for-prime-time advisers finally realized who and what they were up against, the enormity of it all.

The race which the Obamaphile media wanted desperately to be over on March 4th began to look over -- but not for their guy. You could see it in the anchorpersons' calm and reserve what was happening. The Saturday Night Live skits had been such a hit because everyone could relate to the truth of them, the fawning which had been so misplaced yet pervasive.

And now the fawning had ceased, and fortunes had switched.

There was a time, I believe, when the New York senator referred to her husband as a 'force of nature.'

In the wake of the week -- and in the coming months -- Senator Obama may very well wish to echo that sentiment about his one-time opponent.

Tags: 2008 elections, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton (all tags)

Comments

71 Comments

Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

I suspect the collapse probably won't be complete till after he wins the nomination, the GE, and a second term.  But you're right -- at that point he won't have ANY chance of winning again.  There's some constitutional provision or something...

by HSTruman 2008-03-07 10:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

Obama has no chance of becoming President. If he cant stand up to Hillary on national security in the Democratic primary, he will certainly lose to McCain in the general. Obama either loses now, or loses in November.

There are two people who may be president: Hillary or McCain.

Get used to it. You cult is over!

by moi moi 2008-03-07 10:45AM | 0 recs
Also

I think you should stop attacking Hillary. It is only going to hurt our chance in November when she is standard bearer.

by moi moi 2008-03-07 10:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Also

Too late for that.  If by some miracle she does come from behind to beat Obama, she's already assured a McCain victory over her.  The only chance is to have somebody who can differentiate himself from McCain. She clearly can't.

by Drummond 2008-03-07 11:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Also

And I attacked Hillary in my post how exactly?  Oh right, I implied that Obama would win.  I forgot that constitutes an "attack."  Thanks for the reminder and for your ever so civil comment that all Obama supporters are cultists!  Not sure what I would do without you.

by HSTruman 2008-03-07 11:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Also

We're only bringing up her lack of integrity because that will be McCain's angle: John McCain "leadership you can trust", Hillary conversely will be framed as Hillary Clinton: "she supported the troops, until it was politically inconvenient".

by Socraticsilence 2008-03-07 11:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

Well its sad to her charchter that she feels the need to say as much.  Her choosing McCain over Obama is sad but shows who she is as a person.  She is using McCain's talking points WITH HIM and flat out declaring McCain would be better than Obama.  This is SELFISHNESS and speaks poorly to her charchter which of course she has none. It is sad to your charachter if you agree with her that McCain is qualified and Obama is not. She does not care about this party or this country just about her OWN political fortune and for that she deserves to lose.  

by affratboy22 2008-03-07 12:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion
Well - I don't agree that Obama's campaign is near collapse.
But I don't see how his focus on the delegate count helps him, as in Texas where Hillary won the popular vote.
Unless he's promoting his brand of Florida 2000.
by annefrank 2008-03-07 11:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

You oughta think about getting counseling for that crack cocaine addiction.

Obama will pad his already large lead in this election with wins on Sat. and next Tues... the numbers just don't lie.  There really is no path to victory for Clinton that doesn't revolve around some sort of cheating, and or a massive super-delegate switch to her side.  Neither are likely occurances.

by Cycloptichorn 2008-03-07 10:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

A 12 step program might help with that mental block that you seem to have.Good luck with that.

by gunner 2008-03-07 10:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

sorry, but neither is BO's making the magic # needed through the primary season to cinch the nomination. He won't have the 2025 needed either, so accept that math too.

by JHL 2008-03-07 11:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion
That number - is it 2024 or 2025?
I've seen both on newscasts.
by annefrank 2008-03-07 11:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion
That number - is it 2024 or 2025?
I've seen both on newscasts.
by annefrank 2008-03-07 11:59AM | 0 recs
2024
Lieberman was stripped of his Superdelegate status.
by DreamsOfABlueNation 2008-03-07 01:10PM | 0 recs
COGNITIVE DISSONANCE

by highgrade 2008-03-07 10:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

Someone forgot to take their medicine.  I hope one day I can be on what you're having and not live in reality.

by mefck 2008-03-07 10:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

Great Dairy. Right on target. Obama lost the nomination on March 4 - when he lost the primaries in Texas and Ohio. And the difference in the results for the Texas Primary and Texas Caucus show how hollow all his other caucus victories are. This actually hurts him. He cant win real elections in big states. And this is in the Democratic primary with glowing press. Wait till the general election against McCain and the hugely negative press that any Democrat will endure when running against the GOP (and especially McCain).

Viva Presidente Hillary!

by moi moi 2008-03-07 10:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

I don't understand this or the initial post. I think maybe I need ana education in whatever it is you guys are talking about. Hillary Clinton has pretty close to a ZERO chance of winning the nomination. Unfortunately for her people, it's mathematics. She can't overtake him, it's literally impossible/implausable. Any "comeback" she made in delegates has already been erased from the certification of the California results (Obama gained 8 delegates today cause it was closer than originally thought), and he'll widen his lead tomorrow and on Tuesday. I just don't get where you people are coming from. It literally baffles me the lack of logic that is in these posts sometimes.

by Homebrew143 2008-03-07 10:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

Funny thing about mathematics, it works both ways. Obama cannot get enough delegates to win tbe nomination without the superdelegates either.

by LakersFan 2008-03-07 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

No - he gained 4 in CA.

Of course you neglect to mention that he has no way in he** either of getting to the finish line magic number of 2025.  

by cmugirl90 2008-03-07 11:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

Ah, she win through a "sekrit plan" good luck with that.

by Socraticsilence 2008-03-07 11:37AM | 0 recs
Obama failed to put Hillary away

on Tuesday.  It was probably his last chance to do so.  So he's toast, right?

Wrong.

All Obama needs to do is run out the clock.  She won't even get a chance at a knockout punch until the convention.  And even the projections that give Hillary a sizeable bounce from her nearly delegate-free victories on Tuesday require her to win 65% of the remaining superdelegates.  None of whom have expressed an intention buck the pledged delegate or popular vote winner.

Oh and obviously, the only polls that matter are the ones in states that haven't voted yet.

by corph 2008-03-07 10:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama failed to put Hillary away

if you actually believe that the super delegates are going to go against the will of the people (Obama leads and will most likely be leading in both pledged delegates and the popular vote which he leads by 600,000 right now), then you are out of your mind. Why would they do that? They'd turn off millions of young people who are being introduced to the party, and create so much infighting that there is no way they win the general.

I think you have to come to grips with the fact that Obama is the only choice for the party at this point. If you don't, then you are going to be very disappointed come convention.

He'll win WY and Miss., Lose PA, Win N.C...and so on, and so on. The supers don't have much of a choice.

Remember, as much as you think the "Clintons" have all this power, they really don't. Most party elders and senior leaders do not like them very much as they have always believed they were above the party. Her staying in doesn't help her case either. They have a win-at-all-cost attitude, and the party doesn't like that.

by Homebrew143 2008-03-07 11:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama failed to put Hillary away

"Winning at all costs" is Obama telling Repubs to vote for him now and switch back to Repub in Nov.

by annefrank 2008-03-07 12:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama failed to put Hillary away

uh, dude...she's losing the popular vote right now by 600,000. just thought I'd let you know

by Homebrew143 2008-03-08 05:39AM | 0 recs
You're not making any sense.

It's now a two-way race, withe the Edwards delegates' just as uncertain as the uncommitted supers.  Assuming they all actually vote, one of the candidates is going to get to 2,025.

Care to explain how and why these remaining supers will massively shift to Hillary, most likely bucking the preference of primary voters both in popular and pledged delegates?

Because if they don't, Obama gets to 2,025.  Nomination over.

by corph 2008-03-07 11:33AM | 0 recs
Re: You're not making any sense.

Um last I checked there's no official tally of Dem voters, only slip-shod exit poll extrapolation.

by Socraticsilence 2008-03-07 01:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

Then Hillary has a 2 weeks to think about the largest contest left, which she can't win: NC.

by Socraticsilence 2008-03-07 11:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

The race is NC is already down to the margin of error. It is a toss up with Clinton having the upward momentum.

by coolofthenight 2008-03-07 12:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

You continue to believe that, hey she's within 6 in MS too! (Seriously though she's not winning either of those states, anymore than she did WI or VA).

by Socraticsilence 2008-03-07 01:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

No need to be hostile there buddy boy. Time will tell and a clue for you life will go on either way so up your meds and  relax

by coolofthenight 2008-03-07 04:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

she has endorsed McCain!  What will be the difference.  How can she lose if he is so great.  Declaring him qualified to be CIC is sickining and counterproductive to herself in the long run.  The blind lust for power will be her downfall

by affratboy22 2008-03-07 12:20PM | 0 recs
you should check the

delegate count, Obama won Texas.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story .php?storyId=87961802

by kindthoughts 2008-03-07 12:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

These diaries are always sad no matter which side they come from.

by Steve M 2008-03-07 10:44AM | 0 recs
Obama won Texas by 3 delegates n/t

by Walt Starr 2008-03-07 10:48AM | 0 recs
Scoreboard! Scoreboard! Scoreboard!

by CardBoard 2008-03-07 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

And promptly get his butt handed to him in November.

by cmugirl90 2008-03-07 11:02AM | 0 recs
yeah

keep dreaming.

by kindthoughts 2008-03-07 12:56PM | 0 recs
I think either Obama or Clinton would win

I just think Obama would win more handily and be a better president.

by kindthoughts 2008-03-07 03:46PM | 0 recs
Here's basically a good sports analogy

A team is up by 8.  The opposing team scores 2.

The team ahead 8-2 is not, in fact, nearing collapse.  Unless Mitch Williams is pitching.

by ChrisR 2008-03-07 11:03AM | 0 recs
Better analogy.

It's late in the 3rd quarter, with the Hillbots 14 points behind.  They grind down the field eating up nine minutes of clock time and kick a field goal.

The Obamabots now need to fumble the ball or someone needs to start working the refs hard.

by corph 2008-03-07 11:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

Not when you lie about your Iraq policy:

"You can't make a commitment in March 2008 about what circumstances will be like in January of 2009," she said. "He will, of course, not rely on some plan that he's crafted as a presidential candidate or a U.S. Senator. He will rely upon a plan - an operational plan - that he pulls together in consultation with people who are on the ground to whom he doesn't have daily access now, as a result of not being the president. So to think - it would be the height of ideology to sort of say, 'Well, I said it, therefore I'm going to impose it on whatever reality greets me.'"

by cmugirl90 2008-03-07 11:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

Oops - that quote is by way of Ms. Power

by cmugirl90 2008-03-07 11:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

I don't think all of you realize how bad today, and this week, has been for Obama. Its not over until one of them says it is, but this Iraq shit is bad. Really bad. Thats what he's running on, for crying out loud!

by Scan 2008-03-07 11:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

There are not more Ohio-Texas primaries to rescue Hillary either.

Ooops, wait I mean Ohio, cause he actually won Texas.

by kindthoughts 2008-03-07 12:57PM | 0 recs
You mean like he "won" Nevada?

Texas primary:

Clinton  1,459,814 - 51%
Obama    1,358,785 - 47%

by Scan 2008-03-07 01:16PM | 0 recs
PREDICTION:

Superdelegates will count votes to make their decision.

by Scan 2008-03-07 02:03PM | 0 recs
Every week...

...he picks up more superdelegate endorsements, while her movement on that front has been nearly stagnant.  Ever wonder why?

He's likely to win Wyoming, and will definitely win Mississippi.  I guess he'd make modern history as the first person to win a majority of state contests and still lose the nomination?

By the end of this month, Clinton will no longer have an edge in superdelegate endorsements, and the "pool" of magical SDs who will pull this out for her will get smaller and smaller.  
Considering that Obama was about 3 percent of the TX pop vote away from closing her out, I think this whole thread is "magical thinking".

by megaplayboy 2008-03-07 11:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Every week...

I truly do not understand these people. I read this stuff and I feel like I'm on crazy pills. She has no chance of winning this, and she's a detriment to her party at this point.

I'm only upset that Samantha Power had to resign when all she did was tell the truth about Hillary

by Homebrew143 2008-03-07 11:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Every week...

This is why I'm here.  I used to come here for political analysis.  Now, its kind of like watching performance art.

by ChrisR 2008-03-07 11:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Every week...

Exactly.

by mefck 2008-03-07 11:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Every week...

So you believe that he won't win CA or NJ in a general?

The part you all seem to conveniently forget is that the vast majority of the people voting in those primaries are DEMOCRATS. They'll vote for him come November regardless because...HE'S A DEMOCRAT. He pulls independents, which will be necessary against McCain cause he's a moderate.

by Homebrew143 2008-03-07 11:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Every week...

Yes, let's pick out 4 of the smallest states Obama won and the biggest states Clinton won and compare.  That seems intellectually honest to me.

by mefck 2008-03-07 11:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

Personally, I think the only use this diary has is as flamebait. It's almost like the HRC supports think that as long they keep repeating "Hillary won on March 4th! Hillary won on March 4th!" that it will take root, have meaning and turn the contest around.

Here, go make yourself more useful than posting idiotic diaries -  go read some interesting news about the eventual delegate counts in TX:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story .php?storyId=87961802

by desertjedi 2008-03-07 11:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

well PA is ultimately meaningless (unless Obama wins then it ends the campaign), after all it will be cancelled out by NC.

by Socraticsilence 2008-03-07 11:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

Well if VA and NC, are worthless than yeah I have a hard time seeing why PA should matter all that much.

by Socraticsilence 2008-03-07 01:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Movement Dems Undoing

Well, if Sen. Obama's voters won't vote for Hillary; and if Sen. Clinton's voters won't vote for Obama...

And, if 20% of Dems will vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee...

Then I guess our next president will be John McCain, to which I shrug and say:

WHATEVER...

It was ever thus!

The Dems will have imploded again. But after reading the constant drumbeat of smears against former Democratic President Bill Clinton and Sen. Hillary Clinton in the "progressive" blogosphere, I'm about at the point where I just can't give a damn anymore.

John Edwards deserved better support too. But, the hype of hope was seductive--a lie, but a seductive lie. So, Edwards was abandoned like yesterday's trash the day after Iowa.

It's sad, really.

From a bounty of good candidates to disaster in one primary campaign. We coulda been contenders.

But, no--Obama had a "movement!"

by Tennessean 2008-03-07 11:39AM | 0 recs
Why Barack Obama

decided he had to run NOW will forever enrage me.  I have long maintained that either Obama or Clinton would sail to the nomination if not for the presence of the other.  They are jointly tearing the party apart because neither believes they have any reason to quit now.

The thing is, Hillary doesn't have another chance.  She will be 68 in 2016, while Barack will only be 56.  Hillary was been slowly, carefully, patiently preparing herself for this moment for at least the last 20 years if not longer, then along comes Obama from out of nowhere saying, nope, I want it now (sort of like McCain and Bush in 2000).

Hillary will be, at the very worst, a better than competent President, and at best, the complete realization of the entire Clintonian progressive  agenda, long stymied by a hostile Congress.   Who in Barack's circle convinced him that her presidency would be horrible enough for him to jump in and derail her attempt at the office?

He'll have another chance, and be better prepared next time.  This is Hillary's only shot at the apple, and you wonder why she is fighting so hard for it.  She deserves it, more than anyone in politics today...

by jarhead5536 2008-03-07 12:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Barack Obama

Then maybe she should have stepped up an ran in 2004 instead of taking the cowards way out.

by Socraticsilence 2008-03-07 01:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Barack Obama

She would have had zero credibility only halfway through one term in the Senate, and besides she promised New Yorkers that she would finish that  term.  It was vital that she establish a political identity separate from her husband...

by jarhead5536 2008-03-07 02:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Barack Obama

Hmmm, I guess this is one page of Hillary's playbook Barack forgot to read and copy from (well, not the husband part of course)!  He would be a great candidate if he only had followed her lead and actually established the credibility and experience he said himself he would need only, what was it, not quite two years ago, when he also said he had his term to finish first?

by ChargedFan 2008-03-07 10:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Barack Obama

Hillary can replace John Paul Stevens. It's a better job for her anyhow, and she'll be relevant long after Obama is out of office.

by mattw 2008-03-07 03:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Barack Obama

Many very valid points with what you said there!  

Although, would you believe I actually heard one woman saying she wanted to vote for Hillary but couldn't yet because she was too young and sexy yet (and this from a truly sexy 40ish woman)?  So maybe it's not Hillary's only chance--but her much more thorough grasp of world and military issues and greater level of experience definitely warrants her leading our country at this critical time for our country!

by ChargedFan 2008-03-07 10:42PM | 0 recs
Because Clinton

is NOT ENTITLED to it.

by kindthoughts 2008-03-07 12:59PM | 0 recs
Did I say

she was entitled?  No.  She is entitled to the chance to make her case, and I feel Obama cut in line...

by jarhead5536 2008-03-07 02:56PM | 0 recs
what line?????

where do you see this line??? Is there some line that says that if you are a spouse of a former president and junior senator you get to go before some other person???

She is making her case now as she is running in the primary. How does Obama doing the same is cutting in line?

This type of reasoning is exactly why people say, that her supporters think she is entitled.

by kindthoughts 2008-03-07 03:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

Universal - will you support the nominee, regardless of who it is?

by mattw 2008-03-07 11:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Yeah

Good to hear. I respect your opinion here; although I think you're wrong and the opposite is true, because more supers continue to endorse Obama and the closer we get to the end with him 150+ pledged delegates up, the more impossible it becomes for Hillary to catch him. But if she does, I'm ready to vote for her also.

Down with McSame!

by mattw 2008-03-07 03:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

It's gotta suck to know that Hillary's big "win" on Super Tuesday 2 is negated by the delegates Obama gained from Maine and D.C. last month.  It only took 330+ available delegates to make up the difference that he made with 39 available delegates.

by matchles 2008-03-07 12:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's spectacular collapse near completion

Thanks for making the case that we shouldn't look at pledged delegates in making a decision.

by Ga6thDem 2008-03-07 06:08PM | 0 recs
I love it when

you present your own assumptions as facts.

Who told you that popular vote is what SD's look for. There was never a time when two nominee contenders were in this situation. In all honesty, what ARE you basing your assumptions on.

by kindthoughts 2008-03-07 03:45PM | 0 recs

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