Thanks Jerome, for your predictable display of negativity. Perhaps, one day, the blogosphere will realize that Joe Lieberman is not the only DINO we need to toss out.

I've noticed that Jerome hasn't made a single post since Obama took control of the campaign.

I can't believe this made it to the Recommended List.

I remain unconvinced that Obama has put this election away, and I say that as a partisan Democrat.

I think Republicans have it right when they point out how much the race has changed in the past month. The DNC happened and it looked like Obama sealed the deal. The RNC happened and I was sure that the Palin pick was going to drown the ticket right out of the gate... it didn't. Instead, after the two conventions, the race was essentially tied and there were state polls in CO and NM which gave a lot of Democrats worry.

Nate Silver of 538 pointed out that McCain's surge was interrupted slightly before the economic crisis exploded into the news, but granting that premise, it is ridiculous to assert that the bad news from Wall Street changed the landscape dramatically in Obama's favor. In that time, Obama has put away MI and PA for good. But let's not forget he needs more than that to win the election.

If you look at state polling averages at Pollster.com, you would see that the race in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Washington is closer than the race in Colorado and New Mexico. In other words, McCain, in polling right now, is in the same position to win these three blue states as Obama is in to prevail in the latter two must-wins.

You could argue that the averages in MN, WI and WA are closer than they should be because of the lack of consistent polling, but I'd say the same thing applies for CO and NM, two states that have fallen off regular polling updates because they were assumed to be breaking for Obama. But are they? The last credible poll from NM showed a 49-44 race in Obama's favor. That's certainly not a lock. A couple of recent pollsters have put CO at a 5-6 point Obama advantage. That doesn't sound like a lock either.

I am sorta relying on the assumption that national polling will tighten as we approach zero hour, in favor of the GOP. If you look at Gallup's tracking poll history, you can see that, in nearly every race since 1974, the GOP candidate has gotten a healthy bump just before Election Day.

I guess this was a long-winded way of saying that it makes virtually no tactical sense to abandon McCain in the futile hopes of saving a Senate seat or two. The same volunteers inspired to work, contribute and vote McCain-Palin are the ones that will vote Chambliss, Coleman and others.

A better strategy for salvaging Senate seats would be for McCain to correct his campaign's course by focusing exclusively on the economy, and avoiding anything that might antagonize the Democratic base. Picking off whatever undecideds and soft Obama supporters that can be had is crucial to ensuring that GOP candidates like Coleman are on the right side of of a 50.01-49.99 race.

Nationalized elections are, by definition, ones where candidates on the district and local level have to respond to national issues, whether they affect their prospective constituents or not. If Jim Martin wins a razor-thin margin in GA, it won't be because he ran a spectacular campaign... it'll be because the bottom fell out of McCain's turnout operation there and the Obama tide overcame Chambliss. I don't think anyone has attributed Martin's rise in the polls to anything other than the financial crisis awakening people to the fact that maybe the Republicans don't have it right on the economy. If the GOP runs from McCain, he'll continue to sink in the polls and that will be disastrous for congressional candidates. You could say the same thing for Lunsford, in KY. Certainly, abandoning McCain is the surest way to destroy candidates in DNC-leaning states, like Oregon and Minnesota.

I'll note, as well, that this strategy was in play with very little evidence of success during the 1996 presidential election.

Haley Barbour, then Chairman of the RNC, pulled money from turnout operations and advertising for Dole and re-directed it to salvage whatever they could from the House and Senate. The GOP picked up some deep red open seats, but ended up losing a deep red seat. They also lost eight house seats, and did not win any race in which the result was decided two percentage points or less.

And I thought I was being a troll tonight...

I see the California trip has done nothing to improve your maturity levels, Jerome. I would really like to be a fly on the wall inside your head when Obama is called the comfortable winner on Election Night.

Jerome, my jaw nearly crashed through the Earth when I read this post. Not one pejorative comment about Obama or his campaign? I believe there is hope in the air, indeed!

Jerome, perhaps you should remove yourself as a commentator, at least on issues regarding this election, from MyDD until you can resolve whatever biases you have against Barack Obama.

I understand you had strong feelings that Clinton should have been the nominee, I voted for her as well and I was, for a while, angry that she didn't get the nod.

Looking through your past front-page entries, it seems that you really have never had anything good to say about Obama ever. Some of your posts downright remind me of things that I read on RedState.

Hopefully you'll take your time in California to reassess where you think you fit in in the progressive community, perhaps mature a little bit and come back to help restore MyDD to what it was before the 2008 Democratic primaries: the intellectual counterpart to the grassroots-oriented DailyKos.

For the record, I'm against the bailout as well.

Certainly not, which is why I am not overly optimistic about Obama's chances in North Carolina. I still think that a close race in the state pretty much assures us Virginia, though. In other words, there aren't a lot of situations in which Obama wins North Carolina but loses Virginia.

My inner pessimist does not want to believe these numbers. I have a lot of trouble believing the nearly 50% people in North Carolina identify with the Democratic Party (there is a distinction between what pollsters pick up regarding party affiliation on the phone and actual voter registration numbers). I have a lot of troubling believing that Dole is under 40% in such a deep red state; I mean, her approval rating is not terrible considering the current political climate and considering that she won 54% in a 2002 race against a well-funded, popular Democrat tells me that she has some solid support in the state. Finally, I have a lot of trouble believing that Republican identification is low and, at the same time, Obama is cruising with independents. What I have assumed and what has been bared out in polling this cycle is that those who identify as "independents" typically lean GOP, which is why McCain surged among this group in national polling after Palin and the convention.

Combine all of those doubts with the fact that 538 has rated PPP with a Democratic lean in-house, and I'm going to stick with that the race is still slightly in McCain's favor.

What these numbers do tell me, however, is that Virginia is now as good a pick up as Colorado. And since it looks like Obama will win Colorado, it looks like he will also win Virginia. More generally though, the map is returning to the wide-open 25 state strategy that it was in the early summer. Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri and Nevada are all back in play.

I think the most striking data to come from these tracking polls is the consistency. Obama is at 50-49, McCain is at 44-43, which is basically what the margin was all summer.

I obviously don't have any evidence to back me up, but I think this is what happened last night: The public is a little bit weary about Obama's foreign policy experience, but also far more concerned with the economy; now they are sufficiently satisfied that he can do the job as Commander-in-Chief, and are re-focusing their attentions to the economy. So, in a way, the typical swing voter might be saying... "OK, OK, he's fine with Iraq, let's just get him in there so he can fix the economy".

When voter perceptions harden like that, it's very difficult for any new tactic to work.

Now, that's not to say that something that could change those perceptions can't happen. As we've seen with McCain's already erratic campaign, expect plenty more Hail Marys in the next month or so. This is a tight race and will remain so until the end.

And the Battleground poll slips further and further into irrelevance. Does anyone really, honestly believe that Battleground has it right and literally everyone else has it wrong?

Let's all gather around for the MyDD circle-jerk!

I'm glad that we are back to fighting about which poll showing Obama ahead is correct.

I am going to steal what you just said, repeat it to other people and claim I made the observation myself.