This is a simplified version of the Single Transferable Vote (STV) which is used in some countries which have election by Proportional Representation(PR). It is used where there is only one seat at stake and saves the time and expense of run-off elections.
Of Barry Welsh's 382 contested seats there are probably question marks over three, ie. FL-14, MI-06 and PA-05. I think they are currently being reviewed. However two new seats now qualify as contested under the site rules, ie. FL-10 and NJ-11. That leaves us at 381.
There are other seats where there clearly appear to be candidates, eg. DE-AL and KS-02 but which don't yet reach the site criteria. I believe there are another 15-20 seats where candidates have indicated they are going to run or are being touted. For example among the seats which RBH indicates that he doesn't have any names yet: CA-03 Dr Bill Durston has announced his candidacy; NC-05 I believe Roger Kirkman is running; and in TE-01 at least four people seem to be considering runs - Billy Earp, Joel Goodman, Dennis Whaley and Eddie Yokley.
A close eye needs to be kept on PA-05 where the solitary bit of evidence for Chris Hughes's candidacy was a Daily Kos diary. There's no other information about this guy on the net and he hasn't been heard of since. With filing closing in Pennsylvania on 7th March we don't want this seat to go under the radar without a candidate.
I think Rex Freedom at the Barry Welsh site is wise to be cautious about including candidates until there is a fair degree of certainty that they are running, ie. they have either filed or set up a campaign website. Including candidates where there is still some doubt may deter other candidates from coming forward and possibly leave districts without any candidate at all.
Having said that he has included some where the evidence is not exactly cast iron yet, eg. PA-5.
As for CA-44 where does the website indicate that Vandenberg is running again? It doesn't appear to have been updated recently.
Even against a scandal ridden Liberal Party the Conservatives only got 36% of the vote. Centre-left parties got 60% of the votes.
The Conservatives are a minority and are unlikely to achieve very much given that they have no real allies in the Canadian Parliament. Meanwhile the Liberals are a strong opposition with more than a third of the seats. They have an opportunity to get a new leader in place and renew themselves. There is every chance of a new majority Liberal government in 2-3 years given Canada's political history. This was really as good as the Liberals could hope for given the scandals and an obvious tireness after more than 12 years in power.
Given that Republican policies have both strengthened Iranian influence in Iraq and the hand of terrorists I'm not sure that these propositions are mutually exclusive.
Good Point. At least one of Montana's senators has been a Dem since 1911 and it's usually been both.
Max Baucus's seat has been in Dem hands continually since 1913.
Thomas Walsh 1913-33
John Erickson 1933-34
James Murray 1934-61
Lee Metcalf 1961-78
Paul Hatfield 1978
Max Baucus 1979-2006
The other seat was in Dem hands for all but one senate term between 1911-89 when Burns became only the second Republican senator elected from Montana since before WWI.
Henry Myers 1911-23
Burton Wheeler 1923-47
REPUBLICAN 1947-53
Mike Mansfield 1953-77
John Melcher 1977-89
By contrast there have only been six Dem senators ever elected from Wyoming.
John Kendrick 1917-35
Joseph O'Mahoney 1933-61
Harry Schwartz 1937-43
Lester Hunt 1949-54
John Hickey 1961-62
Gale McGee 1959-77
As Ben mentioned in his diary the Liberals have been in power for 78 of the last 110 years. Essentially there have been long periods of Liberal government interspersed by short periods of Conservative government when Canadians have felt a need for change.
The Liberals have been in power for nearly 13 years now and are tired, lacking in ideas and suffering from various corruption scandals, although relatively minor compared with some of those swirling round the Republicans. In any democracy you need a change of government from time to time. Hopefully the Liberals will elect a new leader and refresh their policies and organisation ready to return to government in the near future. Given history and the generally moderate progressive inclinations of the majority of Canadians it's likely the 'Big Red Machine' will be back.
jeromearmstrong Our Polarized and Money-Driven Congress: Created Over 25 Years By Republicans (and Quickly Imitated by Democrats http://bit.ly/ewXlXI #bblue
Veronica Hambacker filed in MO-08 today.
This is a simplified version of the Single Transferable Vote (STV) which is used in some countries which have election by Proportional Representation(PR). It is used where there is only one seat at stake and saves the time and expense of run-off elections.
This site brings together information from a variety of sources and is pretty reliable.
http://www.barrywelsh.org/fiftystate/ind ex.html
Is he running as a Democrat? Any idea why his website has gone down?
Yep, you're right although he's 75. At least he's a name on the ballot.
Joe Forsythe announced he was running in MS-01 last weekend.
Of Barry Welsh's 382 contested seats there are probably question marks over three, ie. FL-14, MI-06 and PA-05. I think they are currently being reviewed. However two new seats now qualify as contested under the site rules, ie. FL-10 and NJ-11. That leaves us at 381.
There are other seats where there clearly appear to be candidates, eg. DE-AL and KS-02 but which don't yet reach the site criteria. I believe there are another 15-20 seats where candidates have indicated they are going to run or are being touted. For example among the seats which RBH indicates that he doesn't have any names yet: CA-03 Dr Bill Durston has announced his candidacy; NC-05 I believe Roger Kirkman is running; and in TE-01 at least four people seem to be considering runs - Billy Earp, Joel Goodman, Dennis Whaley and Eddie Yokley.
This appears to be a reliable list of the candidates in Ohio
http://www.geocities.com/yellowdogsammy/
A close eye needs to be kept on PA-05 where the solitary bit of evidence for Chris Hughes's candidacy was a Daily Kos diary. There's no other information about this guy on the net and he hasn't been heard of since. With filing closing in Pennsylvania on 7th March we don't want this seat to go under the radar without a candidate.
On a positive note three districts which were not contested in either 2002 or 2004 have candidates this time - FL-21, KS-01 and PA-05.
I think Rex Freedom at the Barry Welsh site is wise to be cautious about including candidates until there is a fair degree of certainty that they are running, ie. they have either filed or set up a campaign website. Including candidates where there is still some doubt may deter other candidates from coming forward and possibly leave districts without any candidate at all.
Having said that he has included some where the evidence is not exactly cast iron yet, eg. PA-5.
As for CA-44 where does the website indicate that Vandenberg is running again? It doesn't appear to have been updated recently.
The Conservatives are a minority and are unlikely to achieve very much given that they have no real allies in the Canadian Parliament. Meanwhile the Liberals are a strong opposition with more than a third of the seats. They have an opportunity to get a new leader in place and renew themselves. There is every chance of a new majority Liberal government in 2-3 years given Canada's political history. This was really as good as the Liberals could hope for given the scandals and an obvious tireness after more than 12 years in power.
Max Baucus's seat has been in Dem hands continually since 1913.
Thomas Walsh 1913-33
John Erickson 1933-34
James Murray 1934-61
Lee Metcalf 1961-78
Paul Hatfield 1978
Max Baucus 1979-2006
The other seat was in Dem hands for all but one senate term between 1911-89 when Burns became only the second Republican senator elected from Montana since before WWI.
Henry Myers 1911-23
Burton Wheeler 1923-47
REPUBLICAN 1947-53
Mike Mansfield 1953-77
John Melcher 1977-89
By contrast there have only been six Dem senators ever elected from Wyoming.
John Kendrick 1917-35
Joseph O'Mahoney 1933-61
Harry Schwartz 1937-43
Lester Hunt 1949-54
John Hickey 1961-62
Gale McGee 1959-77
The Liberals have been in power for nearly 13 years now and are tired, lacking in ideas and suffering from various corruption scandals, although relatively minor compared with some of those swirling round the Republicans. In any democracy you need a change of government from time to time. Hopefully the Liberals will elect a new leader and refresh their policies and organisation ready to return to government in the near future. Given history and the generally moderate progressive inclinations of the majority of Canadians it's likely the 'Big Red Machine' will be back.