Sorry, I have real problems with #5 and 6. Living in Colorado Springs and as a long time fiscal conservative progressive, I have watched the Republican Party here eat its own over the "3 Gs" - to the point where anyone right of James Dobson has a tough time getting nominated. It is very possible for a faction to gain control of a local group - especially in caucus states. The mantra in this area has been "vote the person, not the party". The single maor campaign issue here for Rs was "don't lose control of the Congress". WHAT makes the Democratic progressive movement any better than them if #5 is in place - #5 is ALL about power. What #5 says to me is that the progressive movement believes the common voter is an idiot and can't make intelligent choices while voting. That's what got us here in the first place.
#6 asks me to accept without challenge a candidate that I DO NOT agree with and feel would be a mistake to elect. Don't tell me that never happens in elections. I understand realpolitick - I have argued against Republicans and voted against them because Republicans based their strategies on power, not governance. #5 and 6 are that distilled down. I am a progressive because of choice - the thing about a tent is that you can leave and enter at any time - many of these eight rules are a Houston McMansion of political power - not a tent. A vote is something to be sought - not coerced.
The next four weeks are less significant in Colorado. Colorado is one of THE major states for early voting. About 25-30% of the voters in CO-05 already have their absentee ballots either in hand or they will arrive today, another 10% will pick them up over the next 3 weeks. In addition, early voting in Colorado starts on oct. 23 - the County Clerks expect less than 40% of the voting will actually take place on Election Day. So the Foley story actually hit at just the right time.
Look at Colorado this year - CO-05 has turned into a race that had the Repub at 2/1 odds and Jay Fawcett at 15/1 against the field. The oddsmakers are now 3/1 and 7/1 and the momentum is still building. If this hadn't been contested Joel Hefley would have no one to use as a lever against Doug Lamborn. Angie Paccione is giving MM a run for her money, Ed Perlmutter is 2/1 versus 4/1 for the incumbent O'Donnell. Bill Winter is giving Tom Tancredo more than he wanted. All these races are draining money and in some cases, there is no money to find. It's also tying up Trailhead so they can't go playing afield.
the campaign is knocking doors 5 days a week (can't knock during Broncos games). The frustrating thing is that internal polls show the message still isn't out to the majority of the voters (even after knocking since May 1). Without the money for airwaves media, we are doing everything we can for earned media. Frustrating because the race is very winnable - even in the heart of Fort Dobson.
Jerry is right - the discussion in Colorado these days is whether Both ways Beauprez was just the rabbit in this race and will pull out for the bell lap to allow another contender to take a shot. None one is taking this really seriously but when the newspapers start to report your campaign is in serious trouble before October 1, the race is not competitive.
Great thing about satellite, I get a shot at KO at 6 PM. If I miss it, I still get it at 10 PM (I get NY and LA channels but live in the Mountain Time zone). Watch it, love it, email the show. The ONLY news I can get a 15, 12 and 10 year old to watch. What the demos don't pick up is that this guy may be the journalist that gets a whole new generation BACK to TV news. How cool is that?
Don't always agree with them but ColoradoPols carries its handicapping of the Colorado races with commentary which usually is relatively accurate. They have the D AG candidate written off, Treas a dead heat and the SoS R at 4/1 versus the D Ken Gordon - (a great guy whom you should support) at 5/1
Absolutely, I am connected with a progressive race in Colorado Springs (Fort Dobson). Let's look at the changes:
5 of six state house races elected (from 2 of six last election). 1 should stay Dem (Mike Merrifield - was the first Dem to win reelection in El Paso County in decades) 2 races are contested but would be considered upsets (BIG upsets) but they could happen - Anna Lord, HD-21, and Karen Teja, HD-14, are the ones discussed.
State Senate D-11: Ed Jones, the current Republican holder (African-American who denounces affirmative action and has news reports of having in a bar that was closed for "open cocaine trafficking"), is highly vulnerable.
State level:
Bill Ritter, Dem Gov candidate is walking away. His opponent has shown a remarkable ability to exercise his 2nd Amendment rights by metaphorically choosing verbal automatic weapons to shoot himself in the foot. Ritter out raised his opponent $600K to $225 in August. Better news is the Repub candidate may be a black hole for the local R 527 (Pete Coor's Trailhead) funds - taking attack money from the house and senate races.
SoS- The Dem candidate, Ken Gordon, just got endorsed by the Green candidate for SoS as he stepped from the race "to assure the person supporting our positions" has a better chance to win (Ralph, are you listening?). This is a tough race but very winnable.
In general, the Republican Party even in Fort Dobson is getting backlash from its tendency to put forward wingnut candidates. Hefley's cross over blast at Doug Lamborn - covered at SqaureState and on MyDD helped reenergize the whole Colorado Dem Party. It has made private discussions of assistance from senior Republicans much easier to gain. I think Colorado will really surprise (with multiple unexpected pickups) this year.
Orin - I have come to the conclusion that national level blogs are an incredibly inefficient way to gain support for a state level candidate. The perceived "bang for the buck" is too low - if people were REALLY concerned about elections and process, the national blogs would be pouring money into qualified Secretary of State candidates - after all, if the votes aren't counted fairly, don't matter how well you campaign. But they don't support them. The focus is on that national navel - DC. So, go to your state level blogs, work there and then go out and knock on doors. In the end, face to face is where NEW Democratic votes come from.
Most state level candidates in "red" or "purple" states get little state level support. I am working on the campaign of Anna Lord in Colorado Springs. She was recruited to run, told the party needed her but was explicitly told "don't expect a dime from the state or local party organizations". She is a progressive candidate pulling crossover support from moderate Republicans but support is still solely self-generated.The reality is that state level campaigns are all about the R/U/D ratios and that's where it lies. I personally think Anna has a chance to pull a surprise by defeating the former Republican chair here in Fort Dobson but she will do it purely on the strength of her organization - not the party.
The Colorado experience is that it HAS to come at the local level. I can tell you that In Colorado Springs (aka Fort Dobson - home of James Dobson and Focus on the Family) there are three seats that went uncontested and that have good progressive candidates this November. However, there has been ZERO dollars from the state party and minimal from the local (though the local chair has been giving his own money to the candidates). In addition, I am working on Anna Lord's campaign and she has gotten six endorsements - only one with a donation. The progressives will support progressive causes anyway but an endorsement - asking the candidate to publicly champion your cause - without support of money OR volunteers is a little disheartening. SO you have to get people at the loical level to do it - the state and federal groups won't.
jeromearmstrong Our Polarized and Money-Driven Congress: Created Over 25 Years By Republicans (and Quickly Imitated by Democrats http://bit.ly/ewXlXI #bblue
Anna really couldn't tell if this woman was serious or messing with her.
Sorry, I have real problems with #5 and 6. Living in Colorado Springs and as a long time fiscal conservative progressive, I have watched the Republican Party here eat its own over the "3 Gs" - to the point where anyone right of James Dobson has a tough time getting nominated. It is very possible for a faction to gain control of a local group - especially in caucus states. The mantra in this area has been "vote the person, not the party". The single maor campaign issue here for Rs was "don't lose control of the Congress". WHAT makes the Democratic progressive movement any better than them if #5 is in place - #5 is ALL about power. What #5 says to me is that the progressive movement believes the common voter is an idiot and can't make intelligent choices while voting. That's what got us here in the first place.
#6 asks me to accept without challenge a candidate that I DO NOT agree with and feel would be a mistake to elect. Don't tell me that never happens in elections. I understand realpolitick - I have argued against Republicans and voted against them because Republicans based their strategies on power, not governance. #5 and 6 are that distilled down. I am a progressive because of choice - the thing about a tent is that you can leave and enter at any time - many of these eight rules are a Houston McMansion of political power - not a tent. A vote is something to be sought - not coerced.
The next four weeks are less significant in Colorado. Colorado is one of THE major states for early voting. About 25-30% of the voters in CO-05 already have their absentee ballots either in hand or they will arrive today, another 10% will pick them up over the next 3 weeks. In addition, early voting in Colorado starts on oct. 23 - the County Clerks expect less than 40% of the voting will actually take place on Election Day. So the Foley story actually hit at just the right time.
Look at Colorado this year - CO-05 has turned into a race that had the Repub at 2/1 odds and Jay Fawcett at 15/1 against the field. The oddsmakers are now 3/1 and 7/1 and the momentum is still building. If this hadn't been contested Joel Hefley would have no one to use as a lever against Doug Lamborn. Angie Paccione is giving MM a run for her money, Ed Perlmutter is 2/1 versus 4/1 for the incumbent O'Donnell. Bill Winter is giving Tom Tancredo more than he wanted. All these races are draining money and in some cases, there is no money to find. It's also tying up Trailhead so they can't go playing afield.
OK, Jay Fawcett is next - 40 left TO 1000. Can we get hime there?
the campaign is knocking doors 5 days a week (can't knock during Broncos games). The frustrating thing is that internal polls show the message still isn't out to the majority of the voters (even after knocking since May 1). Without the money for airwaves media, we are doing everything we can for earned media. Frustrating because the race is very winnable - even in the heart of Fort Dobson.
Jerry is right - the discussion in Colorado these days is whether Both ways Beauprez was just the rabbit in this race and will pull out for the bell lap to allow another contender to take a shot. None one is taking this really seriously but when the newspapers start to report your campaign is in serious trouble before October 1, the race is not competitive.
Great thing about satellite, I get a shot at KO at 6 PM. If I miss it, I still get it at 10 PM (I get NY and LA channels but live in the Mountain Time zone). Watch it, love it, email the show. The ONLY news I can get a 15, 12 and 10 year old to watch. What the demos don't pick up is that this guy may be the journalist that gets a whole new generation BACK to TV news. How cool is that?
Don't always agree with them but ColoradoPols carries its handicapping of the Colorado races with commentary which usually is relatively accurate. They have the D AG candidate written off, Treas a dead heat and the SoS R at 4/1 versus the D Ken Gordon - (a great guy whom you should support) at 5/1
Absolutely, I am connected with a progressive race in Colorado Springs (Fort Dobson). Let's look at the changes:
5 of six state house races elected (from 2 of six last election). 1 should stay Dem (Mike Merrifield - was the first Dem to win reelection in El Paso County in decades) 2 races are contested but would be considered upsets (BIG upsets) but they could happen - Anna Lord, HD-21, and Karen Teja, HD-14, are the ones discussed.
State Senate D-11: Ed Jones, the current Republican holder (African-American who denounces affirmative action and has news reports of having in a bar that was closed for "open cocaine trafficking"), is highly vulnerable.
State level:
Bill Ritter, Dem Gov candidate is walking away. His opponent has shown a remarkable ability to exercise his 2nd Amendment rights by metaphorically choosing verbal automatic weapons to shoot himself in the foot. Ritter out raised his opponent $600K to $225 in August. Better news is the Repub candidate may be a black hole for the local R 527 (Pete Coor's Trailhead) funds - taking attack money from the house and senate races.
SoS- The Dem candidate, Ken Gordon, just got endorsed by the Green candidate for SoS as he stepped from the race "to assure the person supporting our positions" has a better chance to win (Ralph, are you listening?). This is a tough race but very winnable.
In general, the Republican Party even in Fort Dobson is getting backlash from its tendency to put forward wingnut candidates. Hefley's cross over blast at Doug Lamborn - covered at SqaureState and on MyDD helped reenergize the whole Colorado Dem Party. It has made private discussions of assistance from senior Republicans much easier to gain. I think Colorado will really surprise (with multiple unexpected pickups) this year.
Orin - I have come to the conclusion that national level blogs are an incredibly inefficient way to gain support for a state level candidate. The perceived "bang for the buck" is too low - if people were REALLY concerned about elections and process, the national blogs would be pouring money into qualified Secretary of State candidates - after all, if the votes aren't counted fairly, don't matter how well you campaign. But they don't support them. The focus is on that national navel - DC. So, go to your state level blogs, work there and then go out and knock on doors. In the end, face to face is where NEW Democratic votes come from.
Most state level candidates in "red" or "purple" states get little state level support. I am working on the campaign of Anna Lord in Colorado Springs. She was recruited to run, told the party needed her but was explicitly told "don't expect a dime from the state or local party organizations". She is a progressive candidate pulling crossover support from moderate Republicans but support is still solely self-generated.The reality is that state level campaigns are all about the R/U/D ratios and that's where it lies. I personally think Anna has a chance to pull a surprise by defeating the former Republican chair here in Fort Dobson but she will do it purely on the strength of her organization - not the party.
CT and AL were added on the Kos diary
Oklahoma and Mass have responded on Kos - will get the numbers in later today.
The Colorado experience is that it HAS to come at the local level. I can tell you that In Colorado Springs (aka Fort Dobson - home of James Dobson and Focus on the Family) there are three seats that went uncontested and that have good progressive candidates this November. However, there has been ZERO dollars from the state party and minimal from the local (though the local chair has been giving his own money to the candidates). In addition, I am working on Anna Lord's campaign and she has gotten six endorsements - only one with a donation. The progressives will support progressive causes anyway but an endorsement - asking the candidate to publicly champion your cause - without support of money OR volunteers is a little disheartening. SO you have to get people at the loical level to do it - the state and federal groups won't.