You know what though, it could be true... Giuliani could win the GOP nomination despite the fact that there is no enthusiasm at the grass roots and little at the elite level for his candidacy, because the Republicans hate their field THAT much -- as I would too if I were a Republican.
Incidentally, forget the Obama and Dean comparisons -- hands up everyone who had more house parties than that during their first year at college.
It seems to me this is a broader reaction against an entire style of government driven by the White House and that was built on arrogance and denial of reality. I don't know anything about these two staffers but they sound like they spent some years pursuing degrees in The Math from Karl Rove U. The problem for Republicans is the only alternative to denying reality is accepting it, and that isn't a great option for them right now either. Not that I want to give them tips, but I am a little curious what people think the NRCC committee could do at this point? Obviously they need to hunker down and focus on defending their vulnerable seats -- beyond that it is hard to conceive of what kind of strategy they could pursue in order to actually make gains, given that the Republican brand is in the hands of this White House.
The map of 2010 also shows senile/crazy Kentucky Senator Bunning possibly facing Ben Chandler. So I guess it would be a sign of hubris to start discussing which constitutional amendments we would like to pass once we reach that threshold? My own preference is for the "Dick Cheney is a douchebag" amendment. It doesn't really have any concrete implications, it just kind of lays it down, right in the constitution. And then as a bonus any time we get a supposedly strict constructionist judge who talks about respecting the constitution as written, we'll be able to say: "Oh, so you agree with the Dick Cheney thing..."
How easily we forget that 2004 was a Democratic year, and did not on its own turn red states blue. The Salazar/Coors race, which some people called an easy pick-up early on, was neck in neck right through till election day, and was only won by a couple of points. We'll win this race, no question about it, but it will be close, and it is hard to get too upset by polls that do us the service of reminding people on our side that we have to fight for this seat.
I think it's possible that the real subtext to their "change of heart" message to cultural conservatives is not "I now believe what you believe" but "I am afraid of you and will do whatever you want when I am in office" -- and that this is all cultural conservatives really need to hear. Did America's conservative religious leaders really ever believe Tom DeLay was one of them -- or did they just know he would do their bidding on important issues?
I am honestly puzzled at the thinking behind this initiative. I mean, not the general thrust of it, I get that it's a right wing power grab. But why propose EVs be allocated by electoral district rather than a straight proportional allocation based on percentage of the state's popular vote? They are so obviously setting themselves up for the very criticism that Boxer just made. And it's not like an allocation by percentage would ever give the GOP candidate any (or much) less than 20 EVs. I'm not saying we should waste a lot of brain power dissecting these people's thinking, but isn't it odd?
It should be said that current polls don't show Giuliani putting NY into play. Quite the opposite, they show a Hillary blow-out. The bigger worries are about Pennsylvania, Michigan, and just possibly NJ.
I incorrectly predicted that Huckabee would tank. Now I'm definitely worried about this guy. (However, in defense of my predictive abilities, I refer you to my post on MyDD in October 1984 when I correctly predicted Reagan would win the general election.)
Interestingly Huckabee does not get more than 3% in the poll. I agree with you about his potential electability, given his personality and background, but he just does not seem to have the stuff for a national campaign: can't raise money, get endorsements etc. Lucky for us. I think the only way he can ever become president is if he ends up as VP on a winning ticket. My suspicion is Brownback will exceed expectations and Huckabee will do poorly and slink out of Iowa a wounded duck. Hopefully we'll never hear from him again.
Interesting post. It strikes me that the optics of locking Harriet Miers in the cupboard below the stairs, though delightful to some (me included), might on balance be very bad. We would certainly end up on the wrong side of the late-night monologues. It would potentially shift the narrative from Bush flouting the law, to Congress being nasty and vindictive. What about making it clear, through leaks to the media or whatever, that Congress will continue to pursue this matter, including contempt charges, into the next administration? This would let those involved know they are not above the law, and have the added benefit of potentially making GOP candidates go on record as supporting or rejecting the Bush administration's theory of the Presidency as above the law and the constitution.
There were rumours that the state GOP were trying to cut a deal with Blanco to let Vitter resign and appoint a Republican. I posted a comment on Senate Guru that I couldn't see what could be in it for Blanco, but someone replied that Blanco could appoint a Republican who agrees not to run again, and Dems can take a shot at an open seat in the special. Otherwise Vitter waits till Jindal becomes Gov, then the Repubs get to appoint whoever they want and that person can run in the special as a (sort of) incumbent. So I guess that is the big question: is Vitter only sticking around till Jindal is elected? If so, we are probably better off taking the deal now.
I have to put in a word here for Andrew Johnson. Though not personally hilarious, he ended any hope that Reconstruction might actually improve the position of the freed slaves. A hundred plus years of segregation were his lasting achievement, though Grant unfortunately helped in this.
If you want to have some fun, get the SUSA site to break the poll down by consituencies. It has him at 95% approval among black voters in January, down to 34% now. Among Hispanic voters, he was at 19% in Feb, up to 51% now. Either the sample size is awful small for those constituencies -- they must have polled like three people from each of those groups -- or (less likely, I know) those are some pretty volatile minority voters in Oregon.