Don't look at what people say: look instead at what they do. My father drummed this healthy advice incessantly into my head as a child, and it has never yet failed me as a guide to human feelings and motivations.

Sometimes we get so caught up in the latest poll, the latest 24-hour news cycle, the latest back-and-forth rhetorical volley that we lose sight of the big picture.  And that big picture says one thing: despite the false protestations of confidence, the GOP is really, really desperate.

Forget anything you're seeing come out of the mouth of any GOP operative.  Forget any crowing you may or may not be seeing about the latest Gallup poll.  Forget any false humility or concern you hear from this Democrat or that.  Just look at what's happening.

Here's what's happening: as the Democrats continue what has by all accounts been an extraordinary start to the convention that has left even conservatives impressed, the Republicans and their allies in the media are plying two separate lines of attack.  These attacks constitute the best attempts of the conservative establishment to define Obama negatively before he has a chance to explode in the polls once Americans have a chance to see that the Obama family really is all-American, with American values, American children, and an overwhelming love for one another and for their country. So what are these attacks?

Is it the "celebrity" attack McCain's camp has been so recently playing up?  No, it's not.

Is it the "lack of experience" attack McCain's camp has promised to hammer through November?  No, it's not.

Is it the "shady Chicago politician" attack some have been urging that McCain use?  Nope.

Is it the "elitist, Volvo-driving, latte-sipping Mostest Liberalest Frenchiest Senator in America" attack they used on John Kerry?  Not really.

No, it's none of these.  Their line of attack at this crucial time is...wait for it...William Ayers and Hillary Clinton.

Really?

What does it say about Republicans that they're willing to spend big ad money catering to the PUMA crowd?  There are few acts in politics that seem more desperate than catering to a bunch of people that can't even put together a protest of more than 50 people at the seminal event that defines their cause, and whose blog mothership can't even manage to keep more than a smattering of regular commenters.  McCain and the Republicans couldn't find a bigger demographic to cater to--like maybe Democratic-leaning paintball players between the ages of 60 and 80?  There has to be a least a couple hundred of them.

To say nothing of the fact that by putting out an ad featuring an individual who is deeply misinformed about a critical aspect of McCain's platform will only serve to backfire when it allows the Obama campaign to remind women voters once again that John McCain is not, in fact, pro-choice.

But even more indicative of the GOP's current desperation is their use of William Ayers. With the McCain campaign pretending to officially look the other way, the swift-boat group American Issues Project has spent $2.8 million on tying Obama to William Ayers via an ad being put on in  in multiple swing states.

Now, I'll be honest here.  The Ayers "issue" is the only thing outside of a major gaffe that I believe has any potential to sink the Obama campaign with independent voters.  Hillary Clinton could not have used it to great effect during the primaries because it would have been seen as too negative and even utterly ridiculous by Democratic voters.  But there's some question what the effect of William Ayers might be on voters who are already at least half-inclined to believe emails coming from their right-wing friends about how Obama is a secret Manchurian Muslim.  The Muslim smears alone might not work, and ties to a mellowed 60's radical alone might not work, but some combination thereof that creates a vague terrorist association with Obama in the minds of low-information voters might just be a problem.  Combine this with the fact that while many voters have already heard all about Reverend Wright (thanks, long primary season!) and Rezko is basically a non-starter, most voters haven't yet heard of Bill Ayers.

Which is why, if the GOP had any since, they'd be saving Ayers until October.  Any campaign media manager with half a brain knows that you bring out the killer blows in October--not in late August.  If you bring out the biggest guns too early, the public has time to ingest the information as well as listen to a couple of months' worth of counter-response.  Indeed, there could be no better news for Obama than that he gets a chance to put out a response to the Ayers problem in late August.  I frankly never thought we would be so lucky as to have a chance to get out in front of Ayers before the convention.  In fact, one of my first thoughts when Fox Noise initially refused to air the ad was that it wasn't too sleazy for them, but that they figured it was bad strategy to make that move this early.

Pushing Ayers this early in the campaign is a sign either of monumental stupidity or extraordinary desperation.  Seeing Hillary Clinton trotted out against her will and the attempt to exploit the PUMAs at the same time, I'm forced to conclude that it must be panic.  There's no other explanation for what constitute what are essentially hail mary passes to try to move voters against Obama.

Personally, I believe that Nancy Pelosi is right: the polls are shortchanging Obama by significant margins--and his numbers will only increase as voters get to know Eldon John McCain even better, and Obama gets whatever bounce is to be gotten at the Convention.  And I believe Republicans know it, too.

Which is why they're desperate.  Whatever they may say, it's just too obvious based on what they're actually doing.