Who Voted for the Dems?

So, just who provided the Democrats with their historic victory yesterday?

One way to get a handle on this issue is to compare the house exit polls from the 2006 and 2004 elections.

To demonstrate how this can be done, consider the gender gap:

Vote by Gender       

2006    D    R
Male (49%)    50%    47%
Female (51%)    55%    43%

2004    D    R
Male (46%)    45%    53%
Female (54%)     52%    46%

In 2004, 46% of voters were men and they broke 45-53 for the Republicans. In 2006, 49% of voters were men and they broke 50-47 for the Democrats.

So how much better did the Democrats do with men in '06 compared to '04? One way to measure this is to estimate how much of the swing in the total vote to the Democrats is accounted for by these male voters compared to women.

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The Problem is Conservatism

Right-wing theorists have a strategy for dealing with the impending conservative crack-up, from Iraq to the economy - blame it all on the Bush administration:

The neocons develop an exit strategy -- a political one

President George W. Bush may have no military exit strategy for Iraq, but the "neocons" who convinced him to go to war there have developed one of their own -- a political one: Blame the Administration.

Their neo-Wilsonian theory is correct, they insist, but the execution was botched by a Bush team that has turned out to be incompetent, crony-filled, corrupt, unimaginative and weak over a wide range of issues.

We cannot let them get away with this.

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Why is this So Hard? A Liberal Public Philosophy

Here we go again. According to Matt Bai, "The Framing Wars" and Kenneth Baer, "A Stick in the Bai" we Democrats can't figure out a clear, pithy statement of our ideals:

[T]he problem with Democrats [is that] [w]e lack an overriding argument or a clear public philosophy.

So let's make one.

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Solving the Democrats' Southern Problem, part II

From the diaries--Chris

After reading some of the thoughtful comments in my previous diary, "Solving the Democrats' Southern Problem," I'm becoming increasingly convinced that writing off the South is a bad idea for the Democrats. I think there are real steps that we can take to woo Southern (and Western, and Midwestern) moderates without abandoning traditional liberal commitments of equality for women, gays, and other minority groups. Plus, forcing the Republicans to fight in some of these Southern states is just good political strategy.

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Solving The Democrats' Southern Problem

Via Ruy Texeira at Donkey Rising, former Alabama congressman and founding member of the "Blue Dog" Democrats Glen Browder offers up some suggestions on how the Democrats can win back Southern moderates.

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With Friends Like These . . .

Just another installment in that long-running series "The Mystery of the Self-Loathing Liberal."

Ruy Teixeira has a new post up on Donkey Rising where he takes liberals to task for being boring on education:

Democrats have not benefitted more from education issues because they have had little new and exciting to say to voters about these issues. Instead, they have repeated the same old tired refrain ("more money!"), which has just reinforced voter stereotypes about Democrats and certainly hasn't made make them look like the party of reform and change.

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America No Longer the Land of Opportunity?

It is a well-known fact that the United States has the highest level of economic inequality of any developed country.

When faced with this reality, Conservatives will typically argue that in a country like the United States, economic inequality doesn't matter, because economic mobility is high here. People in the United States can more easily move upward in the income distribution compared to other advanced countries.

Well, a report just put out by Britain's Sutton Trust and the London School of Economics effectively punctures this myth of American economic mobility.

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Diaries

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