Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [UPDATE x3: 5 more!]

by TexasDarlin, Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 07:07:17 AM EDT

UPDATE 5/1/08 11:08 AM PST: Hillary gets 5 new superdelegate endorsements today, including 4 from New York and Connecticut AFL-CIO President John Olsen. Official statements will be added when available.

UPDATE 4/30/08 12:00 PM PST: Already a second one today (Wed.) for Hillary...see below.

"Pennsylvania Superdelegate, State AFL-CIO President Bill George Backs Hillary."

From Hillary Clinton press release of 4/30/08:

Pennsylvania Superdelegate Bill George announced his support for Hillary Clinton today.

George said Clinton was the best equipped to beat Sen. John McCain in a general election and deliver real solutions to the challenges facing the working families of Pennsylvania and the nation.

"Hillary Clinton has the strength and experience to jumpstart the economy and rebuild the middle class," George said. Working families in Pennsylvania overwhelmingly favored her in last week's primary, and I feel that she is our strongest candidate to carry Pennsylvania in November and win back the White House."

George has been a DNC member since 1996 and is President of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO.


And this just in.... From The Atlantic:
A few moments ago, at the Universidad del Sagrado Corazon, Luisette Cabanas, an unpledged superdelegate, announced her support for Clinton, giving the campaign the majority of automatic delegates on the island.

"Today I endorse Hillary Clinton for president because of her strong win in Pennsylvania," Cabanas said in a statement. "She has shown a firm conviction and the character needed to lead the nation."Source

This makes 6 (Update: 12)new Super delegates (if I count correctly) added to Hillary Clinton's column since her impressive victory in Pennsylvania last week. Now, if Barack Obama has all the super delegates he needs "in the wings," as his campaign would like you to believe, why would Democratic officials, especially such high-profile ones as Governor Easley of North Carolina, continue to come out in support of Sen. Clinton? And as I wrote in a post yesterday called Brazile for Hillary, senior Party leaders seem to be having second thoughts about the "inevitability" of Obama's nomination.

The tide is indeed turning!

Tags: bill george, cabanas, Delegate, Hillary Clinton, puerto rico, superdelegate, tide turning (all tags)

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102 Comments

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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

I would tell him he is incorrect and he should reverse his decision.

by Bobby Obama 2008-04-30 07:07AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable
Well then I would just have to turn that right around and say YOU are incorrect and YOU should wake up to reality.
Despite however much you love Barack Obama, how unfair you believe these attacks on him have been, how he has basically won it already... DON'T YOU WANT TO WIN IN NOVEMBER MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE????? Obama is done, for now. If he wins the nomination and goes on to face McCain he will be slaughtered at the polls. Think of Ruth Bader, man, she can't hang on much longer! Is your hero-worship of Barack worth more to you than the White House?
by Misty Mountain Maggie 2008-04-30 07:14AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

shrugs we will vote for our candidate, you vote for yours

and the supers will endorse who they want, no matter what.

Obviously George here supports Hillary, I disagree thats his decision, and we shall see what the other supers think.

by TruthMatters 2008-04-30 07:18AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

Not to mention that this guy is from the AFL-CIO which is known to be a strong Clinton supporting union.

No news to see here, move along.

by Why Not 2008-04-30 07:55AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

You just take it on faith that Obama is unelectable.  I take based on all the polls that he is electable.  Evidence vs. faith.

by soccerandpolitics 2008-04-30 08:39AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

And the surveyyyy says . . . AP-IPSOS latest:
Hill over McBush by 9
BO over McBush by 2

So you're right the EVIDENCE now shows Hillary is more electable.

FAITH and HOPE are the domain of Obama and his supporters and have been from the very beginning.

Unfortunately, the narrative has added a few more words that don't favor Obama but are the domain of Hillary these are those words.

CHARACTER
CREDIBILITY
COMPETENCE
JUDGEMENT
ELECTABILITY

She has owns those words, but these same exact words are a big question mark for Obama.

Listen up Supers.

by wasanyonehurt 2008-04-30 10:04AM | 0 recs
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I see

what were you sayin when obama was up 10 iver hill?

that polls do not matter?

by kindthoughts 2008-04-30 10:31AM | 0 recs
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fluctuations happen

and if you look at the latest poll they are basically dead even with 1% whihc is well with in the margin of error.

So you do not have a candidate who is doing better in the polls and on top of that she is already behind in pledged delegates and the super gap is closing (so far in the day Obama got one more super then Hillary). So I have to say, you have nothing to really brag about

by kindthoughts 2008-04-30 10:57AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

Character and credibility?  Really?  She owns those words?

I guess you haven't seen these polls.

71% of Americans don't consider her "trustworthy." (April 16, 2008)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2008/04/15/AR2008041502883. html?nav=rss_print/asection

55% of Americans say something negative about Clinton when not prompted with possible answers
(April 30, 2008)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106909/TopofM ind-Candidate-Perceptions-InDepth.aspx

Clinton is viewed "unfavorably" by 54% of Americans, and is the only candidate in either party with a net unfavorable rating
(April 30, 2008)
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte nt/politics/election_20082/2008_presiden tial_election/overall_favorable_ratings_ for_presidential_candidates

Simple national opinion polls have ZERO bearing on who will win the general election, especially those taken during primary season.  That being said, they show both Clinton and Obama beating McCain.  What I find more disconcerting is that over half of the country dislikes Hillary!  Even when not prompted with a set of choices!  How the do you win an election when more than 1 out of every 2 people in the country either doesn't like you, or finds you "untrustworthy."

by belicheat 2008-04-30 10:44AM | 0 recs
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Re: Yes - Hillary is most electable

This thread is not about the issues.  This thread is about Hillary's only remaining path to the nomination, convincing superdelegates she is "more electable."  I am not trying to denigrate Hillary or her supporters.  I am trying to make a counter-argument to those who are using polling data to claim Hillary is more electable.

Now, it seems to me that the main thrust of your post was that Hillary has been some sort of victim?   If you look at the polling data I linked to, you can pretty much pinpoint when she lost the trust of the American public.  Want to know when trustworthy ratings started tanking?  When she got caught lying to the American public with a straight face seven different times regarding Bosnia.  

It's not sexism, it's not some sort of misogynistic plot to hold a woman candidate down.  Hillary chose to lie repeatedly, and she got caught red handed.  That's what is hurting her in the opinion polls.  I'm not a woman, so I really can't consider myself a hardcore feminist.  But what I do believe is that whipping out the victim card to explain all of her campaign's shortfalls is ridiculous.  And quite frankly, I believe it denigrates the legitimate concerns of women who are actually being victimized every day.

So, back to the true topic at hand.  Regardless of the root cause, you seem to have acknowledged that Hillary is not popular nationally.  That being the case, how is that going to help the Democrats re-take the White House?

by belicheat 2008-04-30 11:10AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

Sorry belicheat...100-39=61.  Not 71 as you're tryin' to pass off.

And this was way before the PA primary, where Obama got his ass handed to him along with his un-favorables that have jumped from his Media awakening.  This was also pre-Wright reemergence....

And if you think that poll "polled" half the country you're crazy.  It was a representative poll of less than 1200 people, who didn't even ask registered voters, much less PA voters where they were campaigning at the time.

by TxDem08 2008-04-30 11:24AM | 0 recs
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Re: Yes - Hillary is most electable

Man josey, give me a hit of what you've been smoking for the last 16 years. Where is the substance with Hillary? A woman who grew up in the dirt road town in Pittsburgh, became a Cubs fan, while rooting for the White Sox, all the while pledging her allegiance to the Yankees. Vagabonding her way through, Arkansas, Washington, New york, and any other city she finds convenient to put on her resume. This morning I heard her talking, about how her father would load the family in the Model T or whatever kind of car they had in dinosaur times, and drive all day Sunday, "ALL DAY" looking for the cheapest gas prices.He would've saved fuel if he just used the full tank he started out with. Always willing to try to pander to the lowest common denominator, that's Hillary

by johnny sexton 2008-04-30 01:48PM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

You have a funny way of proving that Obama is "unelectable" when you cite a poll showing him with a 2 point lead over the Republican nominee.

by soccerandpolitics 2008-04-30 12:07PM | 0 recs
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Is that Dr. Phil?

I can't help it...

by kydem 2008-04-30 07:11AM | 0 recs
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My thought too

But this guy is smarter

by NewHampster 2008-04-30 07:17AM | 0 recs
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Re: My thought too

But that begs the question, who is Dr. Phil endorsing?

He is buddies with Oprah, but then again, isn't he from Texas?

by emptythreatsfarm 2008-04-30 07:23AM | 0 recs
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Re: Is that Dr. Phil?

I think it was a fair question!

by bobbank 2008-04-30 08:00AM | 0 recs
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Re: Is that Dr. Phil?

HAHA! That was my first thought as soon as I saw the photo!

by AnnC 2008-04-30 10:16AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

already diaried........just a few below this one.

by feliks 2008-04-30 07:11AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

already noted; but the question is, that she is not going to win the nomination because of people like chandler and hill

by American1989 2008-04-30 07:13AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

$10,000 of that was used in 2006 to upset an incumbent.

Since when is helping Democrats get elected a bad thing?

by GWBblows 2008-04-30 11:30AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

You are dead on.  Obama even donated money to Hillary... what a jerk, probably trying to get her endorsement in the general.

Or maybe he realizes that having dems in the senate and house is better than the alternative and he is doing all he can to ensure that.

by matchles 2008-04-30 05:29PM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

More Great News for Hillary Clinton. Four National polls are now showing her beating McCain and she is gaining on Obama in North Carolina, where she now leads among White Voters by a whopping 31%

by steve468 2008-04-30 07:15AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

Obama has two new superdelgates today, Clinton one.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/040 8/9968.html
While more than 80 Democrats in the House and Senate have yet to state their preferences in the race for the Democratic nomination, sources said Tuesday that most of them have already made up their minds and have told the campaigns where they stand.

"The majority of superdelegates I've talked to are committed, but it is a matter of timing," said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). "They're just preferring to make their decision public after the primaries are over. ... They would like someone else to act for them before they talk about it in the cold light of day."

Obama currently holds an 18-13 lead among committed superdelegates in the Senate, while Clinton holds a 77-74 lead in the House. Asked which way the committed-but-unannounced superdelegates are leaning, McCaskill -- who has endorsed Obama -- said: "James Brown would say, `I Feel Good.'"

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 07:35AM | 0 recs
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Another Clinton super, Puerto Rico

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/arch ives/2008/04/chelsea_picks_up_a_puerto_r ico.php

From Puerto Rico, today

by mady 2008-04-30 08:23AM | 0 recs
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Re: Another Clinton super, Puerto Rico

And now Obama has yet another - 3 for Obama today, 2 for Clinton.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 09:12AM | 0 recs
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Re: Another Clinton super, Puerto Rico

Yup, and this from Politico:

"Capitol Hill insiders say the battle for congressional superdelegates is over, and one Senate supporter of Barack Obama is hinting strongly that he has prevailed over Hillary Rodham Clinton.

While more than 80 Democrats in the House and Senate have yet to state their preferences in the race for the Democratic nomination, sources said Tuesday that most of them have already made up their minds and have told the campaigns where they stand.

"The majority of superdelegates I've talked to are committed, but it is a matter of timing," said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). "They're just preferring to make their decision public after the primaries are over. ... They would like someone else to act for them before they talk about it in the cold light of day."

by mady 2008-04-30 09:17AM | 0 recs
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Ridiculous

Anybody who is a superdelegate is either part of the DC establishment or is part of the party elite.

Are you suggesting that he should deny any superdelegate support at all?

Where do you Clinton supporters come up with this stuff?

Take a look at who's supporting who. Clinton gets most of her support from party officials, while Obama gets most of his support from elected officials.

The SDs who actually have to face the voting public are selecting Obama, not Clinton.

by PSUdan 2008-04-30 11:44AM | 0 recs
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right its not like when Hillary annouce she had

150 superdelegates before the race even started. the DNC members.... Or in other words, the establishment

by kindthoughts 2008-04-30 12:05PM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

wOOOOT!

by LindaSFNM 2008-04-30 07:46AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

well another 2:1 day for Obama...i'll take it everytime...

by RockvilleLiberal2 2008-04-30 07:49AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

Now it's 3:2 Obama...

. . . congratulations all around.

by wasanyonehurt 2008-04-30 10:13AM | 0 recs
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Hmm

I'm starting to have the sneaking suspicion that the Gravelanche might not be coming.

by Socraticsilence 2008-04-30 01:21PM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

That's funny, cause two other SDs endorsed Obama today, and Claire McCaskill says most of the undeclared Senators and congressmen support Obama.

And he has more endorsements from Democratic Senators. The people who have been working with her for the last eight years.

by BlueinColorado 2008-04-30 08:20AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

Gee, do ya think it's possible Claire might be trying to change the subject?

If Obama has enough superdelegates in the wings, why would top people such as Gov. Easley bother to come out and endorse Hillary?

What say you blue?

PS, I hear that HRC will be rolling out more very soon...

by TexasDarlin 2008-04-30 08:24AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

"Claire"

Amazing how selective your outrage about sexism and word choice is, SoCalDarlin'. But then, you have lots of trouble picking words, don't you?

Was Jeff Bingaman trying to "change the subject"? I think he and Baron Hill and Bruce Braley, who, you know, are elected Democrats, know a it more about "electability" than a union official from PA.

And I think Clinton's allies being caught up in an attempt to suppress turn out in North Carolina isn't going to play well.

http://southernstudies.org/facingsouth/2 008/04/facing-south-exclusive-dc-nonprof it.asp

by BlueinColorado 2008-04-30 08:34AM | 0 recs
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Clinton's allies? Give me a break...

by Rumarhazzit 2008-04-30 08:49AM | 0 recs
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Read the story

I know facts have an Obama bias, but read the story.

by BlueinColorado 2008-04-30 08:50AM | 0 recs
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Re: Read the story

Shocking, just shocking.....trying to get unmarried woman registared to vote.

They are bastards!!!

by Newport News Dem 2008-04-30 09:03AM | 0 recs
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ah....

...you didn't read past the first paragraph.

Or you did, and you desperately want to change the subject.

I suspect the latter.

What's more, Facing South has learned that the firestorm Women's Voices has ignited in North Carolina isn't the group's first brush with controversy. Women's Voices' questionable tactics have spawned thousands of voter complaints in at least 11 states and brought harsh condemnation from some election officials for their secrecy, misleading nature and likely violations of election law.

First, a quick recap: As we covered yesterday, N.C. residents have reported receiving peculiar automated calls from someone claiming to be "Lamont Williams." The caller says that a "voter registration packet" is coming in the mail, and the recipient can sign it and mail it back to be registered to vote. No other information is provided.

The call is deceptive because the deadline has already passed for mail-in registrations for North Carolina's May 6 primary. Also, many who have received the calls -- like Kevin Farmer in Durham, who made a tape of the call that is available here -- are already registered. The call's suggestion that they're not registered has caused widespread confusion and drawn hundreds of complaints, including many from African-American voters who received the calls.

The calls are also probably illegal. Farmer and others have told Facing South the calls use a blocked phone number and provided no contact information -- a violation of North Carolina rules regulating "robo-calls" (N.C. General Statute 163-104(b)(1)c). N.C. Attorney General Roy Cooper further stated in a recent memo that the identifying information must be clear enough to allow the recipient to "complain or seek redress" -- something not included in the calls.

I'm not sure how disenfranchising AA voters gets more unmarried women to vote

by BlueinColorado 2008-04-30 09:07AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

So when you hear Hillary is going to roll out more, its true, but when you hear Obama is going to roll out more its lies?

by Bobby Obama 2008-04-30 08:44AM | 0 recs
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IOKIYAHCS?

by dystopianfuturetoday 2008-04-30 10:32AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

One more for Obama. Another elected official.

That's 3:1 for today.

by BlueinColorado 2008-04-30 08:49AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [U

Thank you Mr. George for your endorsement.

You won't have to face with the bitterness of buyer remorse.  I guarantee.

by JoeySky18 2008-04-30 08:34AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [U

Good news for Hillary....keep them coming...now for some fun stuff...can we all have a good laugh for a change..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uloO0lskX z4

found this over on a NC site....you will know right away who Obama is....(sleepy, drooly,)  see how many voices you can guess...this is great

Saturday Morning Cartoons, Guess the Voices

by Cruiser35 2008-04-30 08:44AM | 0 recs
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Keep 'em coming!

Two yesterday and two today.  Good stuff.

by Beltway Dem 2008-04-30 08:38AM | 0 recs
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Re: Keep 'em coming!

Two yesterday and three today.  Better stuff.

Today's for Obama:

  1.  Rep. Bruce Braley (IO)
  2.  Rep. Baron Hill (IN)
  3.  Rep. Lois Capps (CA)

by soccerandpolitics 2008-04-30 08:48AM | 0 recs
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The day''s not over,

and Obama is not going to fare as well as Hillary in the coming primaries.

by Beltway Dem 2008-04-30 09:21AM | 0 recs
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right

and when Obama won 11 contest in a row I bet you were not saying that about him

by kindthoughts 2008-04-30 10:33AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [U

3-2 Obama so far today this great news for him...

by hootie4170 2008-04-30 08:52AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

With Sen. Obama also announcing two today, the superdelegate race may end up a replica of the priimary season - Sen. Clinton is running out of track and will require larger and larger percentages of the remaining supers to catch Obama.  

Also, does the PR super count as a whole delegate, or 1/2?  Grateful if anyone can confirm.  

by Kensingtonbill 2008-04-30 08:53AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

It appears that supers from Puerto Rico do count as a whole vote (Democrats abroad count as 1/2 a vote).  

Also, Obama has added Rep. Lois Capps, in addition to Reps. Braley and Hill, so score today is 3 O to 2 C.  See my comment above.  

by Kensingtonbill 2008-04-30 09:02AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable

that's great....congratulation on the SD's that Obama received today...

by Cruiser35 2008-04-30 09:05AM | 0 recs
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and????

So she got 2 endorsements today compared to Obama's 3. She hasn't had to deal with any controversy since her fantasies of being an extra in a diehard movie whrere she was running from sniper fire. The superd's are observing how tastefully, eloquenly and poised Barack handles conflict.

That is why in the supers are flocking to him....not her.

by april34fff 2008-04-30 09:40AM | 0 recs
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Congrats...

Clinton needs some good news to dampen the breaking robocall story.

by optimusprime 2008-04-30 09:46AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [U

Its such a shame Teamsters Leader Jimmy Hoffa Jr. can't be as wise. He probably left his wisdom in the trunk of a car somewhere

by DiamondJay 2008-04-30 09:47AM | 0 recs
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HRC Will Be the 44th President of the USA

Obama supporters need to wake up and switch sides fast.

Obama is a racist and an arrogant, inexperienced, incompetent.

Obama supporters who dump on Hillary Clinton are dumping on the Democratic nominee and the person who will be the next President of the United States of America.

by BerkekeyGuy 2008-04-30 10:11AM | 0 recs
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thanks for trolling

now please go back to freerepublic

by kindthoughts 2008-04-30 10:34AM | 0 recs
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Re: thanks for trolling

I was just giggling to myself, wondering if he meant to have "BerkeleyGuy" as his prototypical liberal handle but made a typo and ended up closer to bukake.

by Mobar 2008-04-30 10:41AM | 0 recs
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Unless your kiddingm

in which case bad joke, have a "1".

Maybe if you said "Hillary will be prez" a third time and tapped your heals together, that will make it happen.

Barack Obama is not a racist.  And if he's incompetent, why is he winning?

by corph 2008-04-30 10:38AM | 0 recs
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Re: HRC Will Be the 44th President of the USA

dream on brother...

by april34fff 2008-04-30 11:00AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [U

Clinton picks up 2 and Obama picks up 4 and your assessment is that "the tide is turning".  Get real!

by dnichols 2008-04-30 10:18AM | 0 recs
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HRC Most Electable

Obama supporters need to learn more math.

If they knew what a second derivative was, and what it means in this situation, they'd understand what's going on.

by BerkekeyGuy 2008-04-30 10:22AM | 0 recs
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I know what a second derative is

now what? wanna throw some actual math my way.

by kindthoughts 2008-04-30 10:35AM | 0 recs
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Re: I know what a second derative is

Sure, the first derivative of the function of the number of delegates vs. time, the rate of increase of number of delegates for Obama, has been decreasing. The second derivative of the function is negative.

by BerkekeyGuy 2008-04-30 10:44AM | 0 recs
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so basically

you say the rate been decreasing they you have a second sentence that say the same but you hope that the word negative would make it seem like its bad for obama.

So lets see:
Just because the rate has been decreasing its does nto mean it stopped. More over HRC is decreasing even worse, you want to take a swipe at that derivitave and its instanteneous slopes? Cause they are much steeper.

A more meaningful analysis would include rates of endorsement of both candidates, the fact the HRC needs way more supers then, and hence her second derivitave needs to be positive to catch up.

by kindthoughts 2008-04-30 10:54AM | 0 recs
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Re: I know what a second derative is

You're measuring ... what... delta(superdelegates) as a function of time?

The first derivitave of that is the rate at which Obama's closing the superdelegate gap.

The second derivitave of that is the acceleration of the closing rate.

Is that true?  Let's look at DCW.  Clinton lead among supers at one-week intervals starting 1/13:

96
94
96
93
97
77.5
64
47
39
36
36
34
24
26
25
22
20

So the delta over the previous week:
2
-2
3
-4
19.5
13.5
17
8
3
0
2
10
-2
1
3
2

Why the big changes?  most of the supers broke early, from late January to early March.  I propose that time is not a meaningful second axis for this: better would be delegates selected, or superdelegates committed.

The other problem with your analysis is that unless the first derivitave turns negative, the contest will end.  There's a limit on the second axis depending on the integral of the function, which continues to increase.

Anything else?

by Rorgg 2008-04-30 12:49PM | 0 recs
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Re: I know what a second derative is

Yes. You apparently can't read. I was talking about her support from demographics groups of voters. That's what the heads of the Democratic Party are looking at. By the way, have you seen the latest polls? Obama's tanking, big time. Also, you don't even understand the difference between "first-differences' which is what you calculared, and the proper way to compute the derivative of a descrete stochastic function.

What's the highest math course you've had, fella? Do you know anything beyond first year calculus?
Have you even had a course in differential equations, let alone stochastic processes?

Sheesh.

by BerkekeyGuy 2008-04-30 05:11PM | 0 recs
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Concavity?

The slope of the slope of a curve?  Pray tell, do you have a polynomial or transcendant function that perfectly maps delegate allocation?

Wait, I know, the Clinton campaign has been lying in wait since Iowa, keeping their delegate count down so they can accelerate all the way to the finish line with more and more delegate endorsemants every day!

It's high time they passed their inflection point, I'd say.

by corph 2008-04-30 10:44AM | 0 recs
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Re: Concavity?

The functions are discrete, not continuous, so the problem is actually one of systems of stochastic difference equations, where the sub-subsystems are the different kinds of voters, but since I don't know how much math you know I don't know how deep to go.

It turns out that all three campaigns are big users of a package called SPSS, which you're probably familiar with.

The pretty scatter plots you see on the laptops of people who do modeling for the campaigns are usually from SPSS.

Its over for Obama.

You can choose to believe it or not.

by BerkekeyGuy 2008-04-30 10:54AM | 0 recs
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Re: Concavity?

The scatterplots are from SPSS? SPSS doesn't provide data, just software.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 10:57AM | 0 recs
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Re: Concavity?

They're the output from SPSS.

Its clear I went too deep for you. Sorry.

by BerkekeyGuy 2008-04-30 11:18AM | 0 recs
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Re: Concavity?

Have pity on a math neo-phyte (though I did use spss many years ago in grad school).  

I believe you are saying that Obama's rate of super pick-up is decreasing, while Clinton's is increasing, and that her trend will overtake his and lead to victory.  

But don't you need to distinguish between the relative trend (i.e. Clinton goes from 0 to 6 over last two weeks compared to previous time period, while Obama went from 15 to 10 or whatever over same) and absolute numbers, particularly given finite number remaining? In that light i think your argument doesn't hold water.  

It's like a basketball game where one team is far ahead and is happy to trade baskets - HRC needs a bushel full of 3 pointers and steals.  

by Kensingtonbill 2008-04-30 11:37AM | 0 recs
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Re: Concavity?

The key issue is the question of what the voters will do in the general election.

What matters in the end is who is more electable.

In this case, its pretty cut and dried.

Obama is completely unelectable.

Its like he's caught in a "Knight Fork"

Whatever he tries to do now, he's going to lose.

The biggest problem is that there's simply no way to ignore the fact that he went to a church based on "Black Liberation Theology" for over 20 years.

There's no way he can escape that.

No speech, TV appearance, or anything else can solve it.

If he does something and gets a bump, it will quickly fade.

Hillary is not only electable, but based on detailed models, she should prevail against McCain with enough of a margin to protect against the kinds of problems we had in Florida in 2000.

Its a waste of time to discuss it.

Its over.

Obama can't win, he can only cause Democrats to lose.

The smartest thing for his career would be for him to drop out ASAP.

Most people doubt he has the maturity to do that.

by BerkekeyGuy 2008-04-30 11:58AM | 0 recs
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woah, woah

you went from derivatives, and charts to making random statements.

by kindthoughts 2008-04-30 12:10PM | 0 recs
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Re: Concavity?

A couple of things:

1) Your argument only works in and unbound function, in a bound function there is almost always going to be a negative second derivative, and its a bbit meaningless as a metric, there's a reason Hillary donesn't try and use this as an argument to say she's winning: "Obama's winning every week by less, so therefore eventually I'll win a week" is quite simply not a winning argument.

2) I really want an argument how Black Liberattion Theology is more of a negative than some other Theological philosophy, say Catholicism.

by Socraticsilence 2008-04-30 01:32PM | 0 recs
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Re: Concavity?

Your reply is pure nonsense.

by BerkekeyGuy 2008-04-30 03:41PM | 0 recs
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I humored you earlier

but I'm now convinced you're a GOP troll who thinks is funny to post under a name like 'BerkelyGuy' and claim some mathematical model can predict human behavior in a Democratic primary.  When challenged you just use more obscure-sounding terms and refuse to explain the reasoning.

There's only one person spouting nonsense in this thread.

by corph 2008-05-01 07:48AM | 0 recs
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re

supers fear the wrath of racist black america thats why Obama will be the nominee and he will lose but at least the black vote will stay a Democratic block and all those supers can still keep their cushy DC jobs

by rossinatl 2008-04-30 10:24AM | 0 recs
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yeah

and thats why Obama got more superdelegates today, eh?

by kindthoughts 2008-04-30 10:36AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [U

Obama now has a majority of House member endorsements and a majority of endorsers from the Senate.

I guess they think he's pretty electable!

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 10:58AM | 0 recs
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I'm in favor of these developments

Whatever hastens the end of the primary season is fine by me.

Honestly, at this rate, we're going to run out of superdelegates before Clinton makes up the margin.

by Dracomicron 2008-04-30 11:01AM | 0 recs
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Re: I'm in favor of these developments

No question.  She needs at least 2:1 to win it, even under the near-impossible best-case scenarios.  Realistically, it's more like 4:1.

However many she gets, if we keep seeing days of 1-1 , 2-1 Obama, and 3-2 Obama like we have this week, the clinch will come soon.  I'm guessing as it is, Obama will have 2024 after the May 20 contests.

by Rorgg 2008-04-30 12:39PM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [U

Wow, Clinton got two superdelegates today!

The tide is turning.

Oddly enough, every time Clinton gets a superdelegate, Obama gets a few more.

If Obama's superdelegates didn't count, Clinton would be on her way to the nomination!

by BlueGAinDC 2008-04-30 11:06AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [U

His campaign is one step ahead of her every time.

It's awesome.

by DeskHack 2008-04-30 11:11AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [U

Obama now has more House members,more Senators, and more congressional committee chairs supporting him than Clinton.

These folks know both of them personally - and they have chosen Obama.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 11:19AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [U

How about the other 291 undecided superdelegates?  Don't get too excited before all the votes are cast...

by mikes101 2008-04-30 11:28AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [U

Clinton's superdelegate lead is in unelected members -- the DNC group.

And, as a poster on The Field points out:

There aren't enough DNC members left to "decide" the nomination anymore. There are 138 remaining DNC members (not including MI or FL), Let's assume that DNC members break 2-1 for Clinton (Clinton gets 100 Obama gets 38), that would put the running total right now at Obama 1772 and Clinton at 1694. Now, if the remaning congressional and gubenatorial super delegates were to break 50/50 (which I think is pretty generous to Clinton), that would mean that they each get 45 new supers putting the tally at Obama 1815 and Clinton at 1739. Assuming that they split the remaining pledged delegates down the line (204 each) Obama will have 2019 and Clinton at 1943 (or, Obama needing only 6 more delegates for victory). Assume that Gore and Carter back Obama that brings the number up to 2021, now in this scenario, Obama would only need 4 of Clinton's super delegates to defect in order to claim an outright majority.
http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=1130#c omment-25281

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 11:46AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [U

Assuming they split the remaining pledged delegates down the line seems very generous to Obama, wouldn't you say?  Wouldn't you agree the remaining schedule favors Clinton?

by mikes101 2008-04-30 11:52AM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [U

Clinton will probably get about 10 more pledged delegates than Obama from here on out thanks to anticipated big wins in Kentucky and West Virginia.  With add-ons likely to favor Obama, though, Clinton will need roughly 86% of the remaining super delegates to get the nomination.  Considering that Obama is likely to win most elected super delegates, something drastic would need to happen to the race for Clinton to have a chance.

by CA Pol Junkie 2008-04-30 12:26PM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [U

No, I don't agree the remaining schedule favors Clinton?

by feliks 2008-04-30 03:18PM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [U

No, I don't agree the remaining schedule favors Clinton?

by feliks 2008-04-30 03:19PM | 0 recs
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Re: Superdel. Endorses, Says HRC Most Electable [U

Oh, and Obama has more Governors, too.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 11:52AM | 0 recs
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I find it funny that

Hillary has more DNC members (by about 25) and the are the gap between them more or less.

DNC is all Obama....hehehe??

by kindthoughts 2008-04-30 12:19PM | 0 recs
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It's really surprising

No one knows Clinton. All you had to do was pay attention when she was on teevee. Everything is new to superdelegates and voters. Didn't anyone notice she was tough and resilient before?

by nonwhiteperson 2008-04-30 12:05PM | 0 recs
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HRC Most Electable [UPDATE: another one!]

Obama can't win. He can only cause Democrats to lose.

Hopefully he'll either drop out, or be soundly defeated in all the next primaries (with the possible exception of NC, because of the very high number of AA voters)

Dropping out now is the smartest thing for him to do for the long term, because he's only 46 and will have lots of chances in the future.

The longer he stays in, the more damage he does to himself and the party.

by BerkekeyGuy 2008-04-30 12:07PM | 0 recs
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thanks for you

concern trolling.

Move along now...

by kindthoughts 2008-04-30 12:20PM | 0 recs
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Berk can't even bring himself

to praise Clinton.  I don't think he supports her.  GOP troll trying to mess up our primary system.

Even the most bald-faced Clinton partisans aren't so randomly assertive.

by corph 2008-05-01 08:35AM | 0 recs
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Re: HRC Most Electable [UPDATE: another one!]

How are things on Telegraph Ave?

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 04:33PM | 0 recs
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Re:What's so impressive

Maybe I don't know the definition of the word impressive.I always thought it meant: has the power to excite.Why is 9% of the vote such an impressive victory. HRC has continuilly turned high double digit leads into single digit victories. Single digit leads into losses. This is a constant with her campaign which I think we can call "unimpressive"

by johnny sexton 2008-04-30 01:16PM | 0 recs
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It's almost 11:00 PM

and Obama has won the day...yet again.

3 supers declare for Obama
2 supers declare for HRC

and from a MYDD newsbit from earlier today

Bill Richardson appeared on Hardball Tuesday night and hinted there may be more super delegates going for Barack Obama from New Mexico; there are three SDs from NM who haven't endorsed a candidate, and two - maybe all three -look to be leaning towards Obama.

Seems to me, Obama is the one Supers think is most electable.

by mchughusa 2008-04-30 07:09PM | 0 recs
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Duh!

Of course, someone who endorses her is going to say nice things.

by nklein 2008-04-30 09:54PM | 0 recs

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