Wow, you went through a lot of work there. I'd say if every state went the way you extrapolated simply because of what Ohio did, Clinton would have won in Wisconsin, too. Indiana is more closely tied with Illinois and Chicago than anyone else; I think you overestimate Clinton's chances, though I don't disagree it'll be hard fought.

We'll just have to see.

A damn fine diary.
Not only is the research good, but it's funny, too.

I cringe when the pundits say that Indiana is like Illinois.  
It ain't.  It is anything but.

unfortunately (for us Hillary supporters) I also read a poll recently that asked Indianians if they were "ready for an african american president" (about 55% yes) and if they were "ready for a woman president (something like 40% yes).  :(

you do alot of hard work and I appreciate that. Good work! I would love one for NC. Let us see if this is on the mark

Having been born and raised in Indiana, I would say that Indiana is not Illinois, not by a long shot.

This state will go red this fall anyway but I think the votes will be more balanced because of republican crossover.  Whether they do vote for O is anyone's guess.  They are surely prejudiced there.  This is the state where the KKK once was created, where the John Birch society still has believers.

Without a doubt there are a few progressives there but not very many.  Even the colleges there are red underneath.  I don't think that O will find many people who believe as he does.  They are very pro military as well but don't feel a particular need to  be showy about it.  I doubt O speech makes a bit of difference to them.  This is a place where Indianapolis was once called naptown, and still is by some people.  They don't change their political views much either.  It took them decades to change to daylight savings time and many are still mad about that change.  A democrat like Evan Byah is their kind of democrat, not anyone even closely resembling Kennedy or Kerry.  Their idea of a man is not Obama, that's for sure.

Good work on your analysis and maps.  I like them a lot.

you do alot of hard work and I appreciate that. Good work! I would love one for NC. Let us see if this is on the mark

Obama's campaign projected he would win Indiana 53-46, so any victory by Clinton there would be huge.  If she does manage a double-digit victory there, combined with an even larger victory in PA and perhaps squeaks out a win in NC, her chances for securing the nomination improve greatly.

Excellent work! Thank you for all the effort.

By the way, to those people who say Illinois is like Indiana politically is LIKE SAYING West Virginia is like the State of Virginia.

Unless you understand the politics in these states, please DO NOT make false conclusions just to sound knowledgeable or to falsely benefit your candidate.

Indiana is the most republican leaning state among the big 4 neighbors of IN,MI,WI,IL.

While Illinois is the most Blue state among the 4.

Indiana is much more conservative, Illinois is much more liberal.

Blacks have less clout in Indiana statewide office. While Illinois is only one of 3 states to elect an African-American for High Statewide office. In fact, the Only state in the entire country to ELECT TWO BLACKS for Higher Statewide office.

The month of April & May could turn out to be the roughest months for Obama & the best month for Clinton.

Even June could be rough for Obama. Clinton is expected to win Puerto Rico by a lanslide & is now said to be very viable in South Dakota.

If Obama ends the 2008 Primary with losing months for April,May & June - this will be a BIG HEADACHE for SUPER DELEGATES!

Have you ever had a Frontrunner nominee in history end the primary with Losing laps instead of Victory laps? And absolutely  No Momentum going into the Convention?

Okay, as a current resident of Indianapolis and the proprietor of a blog entitled "I May Be from Indiana, but I am NOT an Idiot..." I feel inclined to answer some of the issues here.

Sure, in a lot of ways Indiana is pretty backwards, but I kind of resent the implications that we're somewhat moronic and that Indianapolis is still "naptown."  For anyone who has visited Indianapolis in the past 10 years, you have to have noticed that it has undergone amazing transformations, which has been an example for many  cities trying to revitalize their core.  There is a lot going on in art and culture as well, with Indianapolis and it's Cultural Trail being singled out by the New York-based Project for Public Spaces as one of five "Great Cities," with the others being Hong Kong, Bogata, Zurich, and Melbourne.  Sure, we are not Chicago, and we never will be.  However, we're not all slack jawed yokels.

It is also a myth that Indiana is monolithically red.  In fact, the 7th District, which encompasses most of Indianapolis went for John Kerry in 2004.  Sure, there is little chance that Indiana will become a blue state in November, but there are definite pockets of progression in many parts of this State.  The fact that the Clinton Campaign has avoided Indianapolis in their campaign stops, proves that it is probably already being ceded to Obama, especially in light of the large African American population, that gave Julia Carson (and now her Grandson) multiple wins.

The interesting thing for Indiana will be turnout, and I think it will be much bigger than anyone thinks.  With a Governor that a lot of people do not care for, and of course, all of the House seats being voted on, there will be plenty of motivation for people to get out and vote.  Also, the Democrats have former Rep. Jill Long Thompson running in the primary for governor, which could also give a "woman" power push for Hillary.

Also, you must take into consideration for Obama that almost 40% of Northern Indiana favors the Chicago media market over Indianapolis.  So, in a lot of ways, Obama is more their senator than Evan Bayh or Lugar.  So, I expect him to be strong there and in Indianapolis.

Will it be enough for him to win? I do not know.  Clinton will need to mobilize the blue collar base, which I think she will be able to do, but I do think it will be very close.

Okay...that rambled on more than I wanted...

I hail from NW Indiana (though I've lived in Chicago for about 20 years now).

My extended family still lives in Indiana -- mostly in the South Bend/LaPorte/Michigan City area, but some south around Indianpolis.  We're entirely Catholic.  Largely Polish.  Largely rural/some 'ex-urban'.  Lily white.

This weekend's Easter gathering really opened my eyes.

It's anecdote only - and there is dangerous in anecdotal readings - but my family is by and large typical 'low info' voter types.  They don't watch CNN or MSNBC at all -- but neithere do they watch FoxNews.   They don't generally vote in primaries-  but are somewhat reliable "Reagan Democrat" GE voters.

I was actually dreading the political discussions... My family knows me as the liberal among us - but they're not freeper types that somehow think this makes flawed.

My anecdotal report - ~30 voting age folks, ranging from highly educated uppper class (MBAs, another cousin whose family owns a large number of midwesetern auto dealers), solid middle class (single working women, nursing home adminitrators, independent truck-drivers), and lower class (stuggling blue collar workers, farmers, etc).

3 to 1 favoring Obama... and I have not sent a single e-mail or spent a single phone call lobbying for him.   More than pleasantly surprised - I was pleasantly SHOCKED at the discussion... so much so that I really listened more than talked because I found the Easter dinner discussion so uplifting, I didn't want to jinx it.

Some key points from my ad hoc focus group.

- Wright has NO legs.  The small town that my family hails from is 100% white... largely Catholic.  Rather than hurt Obama, Wright seems to have HELPED him.  There's a large segment of Catholics that believe THEY'VE often been victimized by Protestan machinations.  I, of course, don't buy into all that -- but there was an awful lot of "How come nobody is asking about McCain's church?!?! Or Clinton's??!?!"   I have no insight as to whether this is a Catholic thing or what -- but there was a strong opinion that how and where Obama worships is HIS private business... not "ours".

- Unity sells.  Big time.  The most common theme from 'camp Obama'?  It's time for a "new" politics.  More than once, I heard the themes of moving forward, hope, change -- an end to "bloodsport" politics.  Obama really speaks to folk's better angels.  These are folks that may be registered as Democrats (mostly), unaffiliated (the next largest group), and yes - Republican (a few).  However-  NONE of them are 'partisans'.  They're as likely to vote GOP as they are Democratic.   They truly like a candidate that seems to be 'post-partisan'.  They do NOT think Obama 'resolves' partisanship... rather, they think Obama can lead a move away from partisanship.

- Iraq matters.  Time and again - I heard the exact opposite of what I heard in 2004.  McCain's support for Iraq is going to hurt him.  Big Time.

- Econmics = taxes.  Lots of anger over taxes - but they were confined to State/local tax issues (IN just raised its sales tax... property taxes are high.. Excise taxes are high).  I actually used this as a neat little segue to deride our current administration... that local taxes have risen because federal income taxes were slashed, so states and municipalities have to raise their taxes.

- It wasn't nearly so easy to slot people into their 'demographic' classes (i.e., by education or income).   The 3 to 1 Obama support lead was pretty close to the same in my lower class, high school educated cousins, aunts, and uncles, as it was among my solid middle class, 2 year college family, as it was in my MBA holding, executive upper class family.

- Regionalism matters.... Fairly or not - Obama gets "midwest bonuns points".   There's a strong undercurrent of anger against those that view the midwest as 'flyover' country.   More than once - I heard the idea of voting Obama to "stick it to the east coast/stick it to the west coast".   Obama is clearly getting some regional, geographic "bonus points".... rightly or wrongly.

Like I said - this all just anecdotal... but it was also a welcome respite away from the hyper-partisan nature of our current world of the blogs.  I'm heartened, in fact, that 'non-partisans' actually seem to look at the way we see things as "navel gazing", "gotcha" politics of the worst sort.

Excellent diary.

Obama has raised more money in IN than any other candidate. Democratic and Republican.

One dynamic is missing from this report. There is a seven-way Democratic primary for Julia Carson's old seat in the 7th District. Her grandson, Andre, just won it in a special election over the Republican, John Elrod.  However, he is facing stiff competition from several much more qualified and experienced candidates, including two state legislators and the former Director of the Department of Health.  This is going to be a turnout race, and Carson's old machine will most definitely crank up the buses.  That will translate into a greater percentage of African American votes than the percentage of population.  That favors Obama.  Also, Indiana is VERY Republican.  It is still proud to be the birthplace of Lincoln.  A better question than who lives where is who lives where WHO WILL VOTE DEMOCRATIC.

Indiana is an open primary- just declare when you get there.  Also, the Governor is unopposed on the primary ticket.  The real deciding factor might well be local.  Most races here are decided in the primary, particularly in the Republican towns and cities.  People who otherwise might vote Clinton will take Republican ballots to decide their next city council, mayor, school board or judge.

More great work, techfidel. I appreciate the effort you put into this. It is nice to read the numbers versus the vitriol. Happy to rec.