74 House Races to Target (ranked)

by Superribbie, Sat Sep 24, 2005 at 11:58:32 AM EDT

From the diaries--Chris

(Cross-posted at dailykos)
I have been putting together a series of profiles of vulnerable GOP House seats. On Thursday, I posted the seventh and final installment. That diary included New Mexico, Arizona, California, and Washington.

Prior installments:

1) New England, NJ
NY, PA
WV, OH, MI
IN, IL, WI, MN
The South
IA, KS, CO, WY, NV

These diaries gave an in depth look at 74 potential pickups, some more likely than others. I was asked at one point to provide a summary and rank them in terms of likelihood of winning. To do so, I came up with the following rubric: add the district partisan score to the average of the '02 and '04 Dem challengers' vote percentage, add 10 points for open seat, add 5 points for freshman incumbents, add 5 points for Ohio and Kentucky seats (b/c of scandal), add 10 for scandal, add one for Iraq veteran challenger, and add points at my discretion for strong challengers; and I reserved my right to tweak based on my own hunches. That empiric produced the following ranking, which seems pretty plausible to me.

(See the extended entry for the complete list.)

Iowa 01 (open seat) 119.6

Colorado 07 (open seat) 114

Indiana 09 (Mike Sodrel) 104

Washington 08 (Dave Reichert) 104

Connecticut 04 (Chris Shays) 103.8

Illinois 06 (open seat) 103.6

Connecticut 02 (Rob Simmons) 103.3

Pennsylvania 08 (Mike Fitzpatrick) 102

Pennsylvania 06 (Jim Gerlach) 101.8

Wisconsin 08 (open seat) 101.6

Kentucky 03 (Anne Northup) 100.3

Florida 09 (open seat) 100

Iowa 02 (Jim Leach) 100

California 50 (open seat) 99.6

Minnesota 06 (open seat) 99.6

New Mexico 01 (Heather Wilson) 97.3

Pennsylvania 15 (Charlie Dent) 96.5

California 48 (open seat--special election) 95

Connecticut 05 (Nancy Johnson) 95

North Carolina 11 (Charles Taylor) 94.8

Louisiana 07 (Charles Boustany) 94.3

New Hampshire 02 (Charles Bass) 93.8

Ohio 18 (Bob Ney) 93.3

Nevada 02 (open seat) 93

North Carolina 08 (Robin Hayes) 93

Nevada 03 (Jon Porter) 92.3

Colorado 04 (Marilyn Musgrave) 91.8

New York 29 (Randy Kuhl) 91.8

Indiana 02 (Chris Chocola) 91.8

Ohio 01 (Steve Chabot) 91.3

New Jersey 07 (Mike Ferguson) 90.8

Ohio 12 (Pat Tiberi) 90.8

Arizona 01 (Rick Renzi) 90.8

Michigan 09 (Joe Knollenberg) 90.5

Florida 22 (Clay Shaw) 90.3

Ohio 15 (Deborah Pryce) 90.3

New York 26 (Tom Reynolds) 90.3

Michigan 11 (Thaddeus McCotter) 90

Iowa 04 (Tom Latham) 90

Florida 13 (open seat) 90

Alabama 03 (Mike Rogers) 89.8

Indiana 08 (John Hostettler) 89.5

Minnesota 02 (John Kline) 89.5

Virginia 02 (Thelma Drake) 88.8

Pennsylvania 07 (Curt Weldon) 88.5

New Hampshire 01 (Jeb Bradley) 87.8

Pennsylvania 03 (Phil English) 87.8

Virginia 11 (Tom Davis) 87.5

Illinois 10 (Mark Kirk) 87

Illinois 11 (Jerry Weller) 87

Minnesota 01 (Gil Gutknecht) 86.8

Pennsylvania 18 (Tim Murphy) 86

Ohio 03 (Mike Turner) 86

California 11 (Richard Pombo) 86

New Jersey 03 (Jim Saxton) 86

West Virginia 02 (Shelley Capito) 85.5

New York 13 (Vito Fossella) 85.5

New Jersey 05 (Scott Garrett) 85.5

New Mexico 02 (Steve Pearce) 85.5

Texas 22 (Tom DeLay) 85.5

New York 03 (Peter King) 85.5

Pennsylvania 10 (Don Sherwood) 84.8

California 26 (David Dreier) 84.5

Arizona 08 (Jim Kolbe) 84.3

Michigan 07 (Joe Schwarz) 84.3

Arizona 05 (J.D. Hayworth) 83.5

Florida 08 (Ric Keller) 83.5

Kansas 02 (Jim Ryun) 83.5

Pennsylvania 04 (Melissa Hart) 82.3

Michigan 08 (Mike Rogers) 82

Ohio 14 (Steve LaTourette) 81

New York 24 (Sherwood Boehlert) 80.8

Ohio 04 (Mike Oxley) 78.3

Wyoming at Large (Barbara Cubin) 70.5

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Flipping the house is nice

But question is how does this work into the issue of what flavor of flip? I've seen analysis on mydd.com that there are some Democrats who consistently vote Republican on the issues. Chairmanship and setting the agenda are a great thing. We need that. But, a true vitory would include being able to set an agenda that is not just playing into the Replubican hands of saying "it's the Democrats." So, when considering this, how does those open races you point out stack up in terms of who is running, what will they be running on and what will be the real, versus no so real effect of a shift into the Democrats favor?

by bruh21 2005-09-24 12:42PM | 0 recs

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A flip is a huge deal

The way the institution is set up, we'd get to stack the committees even if we have a 218-217 majority. The only roadblock may be, as you point out, some roll call votes. There are some Dems who will vote with the Repubs, but none over 50% of the time now that Ralph Hall has made the switch. Also, there are some GOPers who vote with us a lot. There'd be some close roll calls, but, as you'll remember, the GOP controlled the House with an iron fist with only a 223-212 edge or thereabouts from 1999-2003.

by Superribbie 2005-09-26 08:33AM | 0 recs

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Re: A flip is a huge deal

I don't want to under emphasize the importance of a flip. I wanted to emphasize the importance of the flip in terms of looking at the numbers as any kind of actual agenda after the flip happens.

by bruh21 2005-09-28 03:44PM | 0 recs

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Forgotten backstabber ?

So we've forgotten the betrayal in
the 5th District of Louisiana?

Back in the spring of 2004, the
incumbent Democratic Congressman
waited until the last legal day for
a candidate to enter the race to
switch parties to the Dark Side.

The clever timing of his treacherous
act meant that no strong Democratic
challenger could get in the race.

Against a couple of unknowns this
flip-flopping traitor to the Democratic
Party won re-election with 59% of
the vote and a wide margin. But
then, he ran essentially unopposed.

Back when Cong. Rodney Alexander
turned his coat from blue to red, many
on this site commented that we would
get even. We will field and finance a
strong challenger "next time" to punish
his perfidy.

Well, it's almost time for "next time"
and Louisiana's 5th District does not
even make your wish list.

Too soon we forget.

Meanwhile, you might want to check
your figures. The partisan share of
the 2004 vote is a cock-eyed number.
Because he had swindled Democrats
out of having a strong opponent,
the traitor ran ahead of George W.
Bush's share in the vote. Normally
a local Democrat would have run far
ahead of John Kerry's share. If you
adjust your calculations, a more
normal election could be much
more favorable to the Democrat
"next time".

by Woody 2005-09-24 03:19PM | 0 recs

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LA-05

Is actually the 2d most GOP district in the state, behind Jindal's LA-01. It gave Gore 41% in 2000 and Kerry 37%. It was won easily by John Cooksey as a new district in the 1990s and easily held by him until he left it to challenge Mary Landrieu in 2002. Alexander won a squeaker in the open seat race against a really crappy opponent (Lee Fletcher) and then bolted. I realize Alexander's own totals may be inflated because of the bait and switch--and the lingering anger may be enough to put him in hot water. I'm with you in hoping it is.

by Superribbie 2005-09-26 08:34AM | 0 recs

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AZ Picks

Kolbe's seat is the most likely pick-up, followed by Renzi. CD-5 will simply not be winnable until it is open. Kolbe will not lose in the general, but he will get a very strong primary challenge in Randy Graf. Graf put up a very strong showing, 42.5% in 2004, given that he raised next to nothing compared to Kolbe. Graf will defeat Kolbe on immigration and Kolbe's open homosexuality and Jeff Latas will defeat Graf in the general. CD-1 might be winnable, but Renzi is a pork machine. He actually wins on the reservations, which should be the starting point for an effort to unseat him, and it's because he can bring them pork.

by Fugee BoBfUn 2005-09-24 05:10PM | 0 recs

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I hoped to see both Nevada seats far down the list

Since they're both in the top 26 I'd have to estimate the number of truly vulnerable seats is really 15 or less.

We're not going to pick up anything in Nevada. Gibbons' district comprises northern Nevada, and Porter is entrenched in a district that started 50/50 but was intentionally drawn by the legislature to grow slightly Republican. We needed to nab that seat as soon as it was available in '02, but Dario Herrera was a flawed candidate beset by scandal. Porter is bland as hell but this state doesn't have an impressive Democratic bench right now. After Bob Miller and Richard Bryan retired we've really scrambled to find top candidates. In 2000 we had to run a local personal injury attorney against John Ensign to fill Bryan's senate seat.

In general, every liberal site projects far too much hope for pickups in Nevada. Clark County is still gripped by national security fear after it was publicized the 9/11 terrorists met here. Every simpleton I talk to worries the big hotels are the next obvious target. That fear trumps all other factors and no sign it's diminishing.

by jagakid 2005-09-24 07:49PM | 0 recs

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Re: I hoped to see both Nevada seats far down the

Interesting, especially the last paragraph.

Us folks outside of Nevada tend to thing of Las Vegas as some sort of SEIU socialist paradise. Guess that will have to wait. And who knows which party the SEIU ends up backing in any particular race.

I'm afraid the prediction of knocking off Dave Reichert is a bit premature. We're talking about the sheriff who caught the Green River killer. Neither Darcy Burner or Randy Gordon is going to be able to knock him off.

The Dems need to build a decent farm team in east King County. I realize that John Kerry did very well in Bellevue, but you need someone with the name ID of a Reichert, or at least someone close.

by chrischross 2005-09-24 11:52PM | 0 recs

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not so fast on Iowa

Leach is untouchable. We went after him hard in 2002 and couldn't win, despite the fact that his new post-census district contained several counties he hadn't represented before and
"the People's Republic of Johnson County," home of Iowa City and Iowa's most progressive community.

The open 1st district is a different story, but remember that people there have been in the habit of voting Republican (for Jim Nussle) for well over a decade. Won't be a cakewalk, even with a good candidate. Will help if we have a strong candidate in the governor's race (there is no US Senate race in iowa next year).

by desmoinesdem 2005-09-24 09:16PM | 0 recs

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Oklahoma 5

Ernest Istook is considering a run for governor. If he does, the 5th now contains many more of what pass for Democrats in Oklahoma. At the least, without incombency the district is competitive.

As noted above, this seat will be a DINO but do not sneer at chairmanships that majorities containing DINO's bring; chairpersons get to lead investigations as well as shape agendas. And the House writes taxes.

by Dan 2005-09-24 09:48PM | 0 recs

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Re: No sneer

Not to sneer at any DINO seat
we can get.

In addition to having the Speaker
and the Committee chairs, the
majority party gets more support
from its soft members. It has
considerable power to reward
and punish individual members.
When we get a majority again,
many DINOs will start to vote
with the majority more often
and act less like DINOs.

by Woody 2005-09-25 07:13AM | 0 recs

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Nice job!

Anne Northtup shouldn't rate 11. She's a monster fund-raiser and at 60% she ran well ahead of the results for the open seat (Ky 4?) where Nick Clooney gabe it a go in the Cincy suburbs (we lost that one 55-43 and it was considered a hot button district at the time). That should be on the list, if low down.

Two Jersey seats rated in the low range but 2004 was a terrible year for the Dems here. Kerry made NO effort, the Reps at least did a token job, and 9/11 was played to the max along with McGreevey's scandal/resignation. NJ was second to NY in 9/11 deaths and in both states Kerry won but by much less than Gore. 2005 looks like a much better year. I think in a good year we have a real shot. The Reep candidates mentioned for US Senate are awful, too.

by David Kowalski 2005-09-25 01:37AM | 0 recs

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What about TX-22?

Delay's approval rating is below 50, and has been as low as 42/51, in his own district, and the investigations against him are just picking up steam. There are big demographic shifts in that district as well.

I'd also be curious to know whether you think CAFTA will put more seats into play.

Great analysis! Keep it up.

by thesleepthief 2005-09-25 08:24AM | 0 recs

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Re: What about TX-22?

DeLay's on there. That's one that may jump way up depending on how things develop. CAFTA may help some, but with organized labor's clout at an all-time low and international trade being a somewhat esoteric issue for many, I doubt if it will be a silver bullet. Its real usefulness is as a cog in the overall narrative of "the corrupt, crony-supporting Washington Republicans represent only their fatcat friends."

by Superribbie 2005-09-26 08:41AM | 0 recs

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Minnesota Races

I wouldn't bother with MN-01. Gutknecht is generally popular and voted against CAFTA, a good idea in an agricultural district. It would take a remarkable candidate to make him even feel threatened.

I'm not sure about MN-02. Rowley seems like a good candidate on paper, but I haven't been immensely impressed so far. For starters, her motto of "always try" has to go.

MN-06 may be doable, but I'm not sure all depends on Wetterling as you say. She does have high name ID, but managed to lose in 2004. Granted, she was running against a popular Republican incumbent in a conservative district. It may be different in an open seat. But she seems committed to the Senate race, even though Klobuchar seems to be doing a better job so far.

Further, the candidate currently in there for the Democrats, Elwyn Tinklenberg, may be the right kind. He's a conservative Dem with ties to Jesse Ventura's administration. (Jesse did well in this area.) Add to this the possibility of a nasty Republican endorsement battle and/or primary, in which the candidates will all try to move as far to the right as possible -- and it's hard to move farther to the right than State Senator Michele Bachmann -- and it could be interesting. The candidates may be too far out in right-wing la-la land even for the normally Republican Sixth CD. Tinklenberg could surprise people.

by machinevtool 2005-09-26 07:10AM | 0 recs

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Re: Minnesota Races

I agree that Tinklenberg is impressive; it is just a huge leg up to have run once before--countless current Reps in both parties are people who ran unsuccessfully against an incumbent and then came back to claim an open seat. Minnesota 01 inspires strong commentary both ways; I've gotten comments saying don't bother, and I've also gotten comments complaining that it's too low. The positives are our candidate, Iraq vet Sgt. Major Tim Walz and the fact that both Gore and Kerry took 48% of the two-party vote in MN-01.

by Superribbie 2005-09-26 08:45AM | 0 recs

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Re: Minnesota Races

OK, I may be a bit biased, but unless something big happens between now and election time, MN01 and MN02 ain't gonna flip. The only chance for any change in the House makeup is a Dem pickup of MN06, and that's only if Wetterling runs there. If she doesn't, I don't see much chance of the Dems winning.

And as for Tinklenberg, having "ties to Jesse Ventura's administration" is not exactly a positive thing at this point, so I don't see how that would help. I am guessing that a large percentage of Jesse voters in the 6th (just as in the rest of the state) wished they had never voted for him.

Concerning Wetterling, I am still trying to figure out why she doesn't run at the state level first instead of gunning for a national seat right away. With a few years of experience as a state Rep/Senator, she would be a much more potent national candidate. She has huge name ID and is a sympathetic figure, but she lacks experience and essentially has only a single issue on which to run. A state level position would allow her to fill out her resume beyond that one issue.

by RepTroll 2005-09-26 12:41PM | 0 recs

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OH - 12 Tiberi

When he ran in 2000 against Maryellen Oshaughnessey (Columbus City council) and won by a small margin. Subsequent to that the Dems have run some nobody. Anyone have any idea if there is a real challenge going to be raised against him? I would do work for that person if they are out there, but I don't want to tilt at windmills with someone who is not going to really try.

My sense is that this district is "moderate" and the right kind of progressive dem could claim it if they played up fiscal responsibility, the need for balance and how Tiberi is too closely aligned with far right elements.

by comotion 2005-09-26 01:08PM | 0 recs

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by 123 2005-09-27 01:03AM | 0 recs

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NY 29 (Kuhl)

I'd have to believe Randy Kuhl is very vulnerable. He's an empty suit who, when asked questions by constituents at town meetings and the like, often replies with "I don't know", or "Send that question in writing to my office". He's a first-termer, who won by a fairly narrow margin against a weak Democratic opponent.

Running for the Democratic nomination this time around is a seemingly bona fide candidate, Eric Massa: Naval Academy graduate, former senior aide to Gen. Wesley Clark, Republican-turned-Democrat, opposes Bush's war in Iraq.

Democrat Stan Lundine represented the 29th for many years before becoming Mario Cuomo's lt. governor, and then kind of dropping off the radar screen. So this district has proven that it will elect a Democrat.

Ignitor

by Ignitor 2005-09-29 09:44AM | 0 recs