but there are obvious similarities too.  We are involved in an unwinnable civil war that is not supported by the majority of the people. The US government is engaged in daily lies and happy talk. You would have to be brain dead if you are my age and that doesnt ring a bell for you.

But that doesnt mean that the same strategies and tactics will work.  So you are right about that, but to deny that there is an element of deja vu is just another way of saying you arent old enough to remember that far back.  No crime in my book, and maybe even an advantage if it allows you not to respond to the right in a knee jerk deja vu way.

Poll results are really statements about odds and percentages in the first place.  A poll result (e.g. "Kerry has 51% of RV's) is simply the most likely true result based on a sample of the whole population.  So any further odds you figure are really conditional probabilities based on the assumption that the poll you are starting with is true (though with a 3% margin of error, truth is going to be outside of the margin 1 time out of 20) - so, dont forget to include an m. o. e. calculation with your conditional odds calculation - it will get bigger at every step of the way - So, the bottom line?  You can get very interesting results with your proposal - but only at a low level of confidence that they are actually true.

And another comment - I think this year will blow most of the historical pattern analysis out of the water.  The population is truly riled up and a lot of people who never voted before look like they will do it this time - Statistical analysis based on historical patterns only tells you what will happen if everyone acts the way they always did.  Do you think they will do that this year?  Put another way, the regressions you run are always true unless they arent.

do you really think he understood it?  i mean, if you are completely and totally ignorant and uncaring (not to mention focused on your golf) then you might not even really register what the thing said.

as for me, i dont think W has the concentration span to get through a page of writing with no pictures at all.