In what can only be described as something that is a long time coming, longtime Oregon conservative activist (and complete A-hole) Bill Sizemore was jailed today after being found in contempt of court for the fourth time.  The specific incident this time was Sizemore's failure to file federal and state reporting forms required for organizations he controls to maintain their tax exempt status.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do ?diaryId=1513

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The genesis for this title is a Willamette Week article titled "Red Dawn" published in July of 2006 which claimed, at the time, to show evidence of a Republican surge in the Beaver State.  It goes without saying that those predictions were dead wrong as the Democratic party has more than tripled its registration edge in my home state and seems poised to post strong wins statewide.  Below are my final summary predictions and some things to watch Thursday.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do ?diaryId=1455

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With a week to go, it is time for me to really make some predictions about where the races will go this fall.  I will update them on November 4 but if I had to guess, what is below is what I think will happen.  The real question for Democrats, in summary, will be not will they increase their majority but by how much.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do ?diaryId=1440

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The following is the updated version of a FAQ guide I published before OR's primary in May talking about how Oregon's Vote by Mail system works.  In addition, I have added information on how to interpret Oregon's results on election night.

Cross-Posted from Daily Kos: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/20 /12923/777/307/636329

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The latest in my postings on Oregon politics is a discussion of how I intend to vote when I get my ballot on Friday or Saturday. I am posting this now both to foster discussion and because, especially on the ballot measures, I am willing to listen to arguments on whether I am wrong to think about voting the way I intend to.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do ?diaryId=1411

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The following is my update of the races that will be contested next month in the state of Oregon.  My projections will be updated probably one more time shortly before election day.  I do not work for any campaign and my projections are my own.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do?dia ryId=1395

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The following is my analysis of the latest numbers put out by Survey USA.  I am choosing to analyze this both because I want to explain to folks what is going on but also because SUSA does provide crosstabs, making analysis easier.  This is NOT just another poll diary.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do ?diaryId=1364

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I had not planned to publish another Oregon political news roundup but a few stories in today's news cry out for me to make them known to the blogosphere.  They are:

1. Matt Wingard's troubles deepen-The State Legislative candidate's (R) child abuse issues may be worse than previously thought.

2. Oregon Dems blast the bailout.
   
3. Oregon Dems surge in registration in OR-5.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do ?diaryId=1360

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Enough has happened in the past few weeks for me to do one of my occasional Oregon political news roundups.  Specifically, the following four stories will be covered:

1. Gordon Smith the Elitist-Smith is revealed to be at least the 10th richest member of Congress.

2. One expensive movie ticket-The Governator no shows for a Smith fundraiser, choosing to appear via satellite.  
   
3. Republican Wingard gets hit for child abuse conviction in new ad.
   
4. Democrats continue rise in voter registration.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do ?diaryId=1357

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The following is my look at the races in Oregon this fall, from statewide down to state legislative and excluding ballot measures.  Unlike my previous updates, I rank each race within its category, rather than by district number.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do;jse ssionid=5666463668249FE4C8DA53B06273CDA1 ?diaryId=1338

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