This latest in my continuing series of diaries on Oregon politics will discuss the current status of Oregon's political landscape by using voter registration as a guide.  With this model, we can see clearly how strongly the Democratic party is positioned for this fall.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do ?diaryId=1237

Key:

Names listed are those of the party's candidate holding the seat.
For Congressional districts, multiply the State Senate values by five.
Strong District: Oregon House Voter Reg. Difference 10k or more, Senate Voter Reg. 20k or more.
Likely District: Oregon House 5-10k Difference, Senate 10-20k Difference.
Lean District: Oregon House 3-5k Difference, Senate 6-9k Difference.
Tossup District: Oregon House less than 3k Difference, Senate less than 6k Difference.
=Opposition party has registration edge of 1k or more.
x=Candidate is unopposed (by a major party candidate).

All values are rounded to the nearest thousand, source of data is: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may 202008/p08stats.pdf.

My read on the state of the races is here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/ 12954/7313/791/549408.

Congressional Races:

District 1 (D): D+ 57k, Likely D.
District 2 (R): R+ 33k, Leans R.
District 3 (D): D+ 125k, Strong D.
District 4 (D): D+ 36k, Leans D.
District 5 (D): D+ 19k, Tossup.

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate:

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Seats NOT up for re-election this year:

Total: 14 (Due to a vacancy filler election in one district).
D-Held: 10.
R-Held; 4.

Summary:

Strong D: 3
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 3
Tossup D: 1.
Strong R: 0.
Likely R: 2.
Leans R: 3.
Tossup R: 2.

Uncontested Races:
D-Held: 5, 3 Strong, 2 Lean.
R-Held: 3, 1 Likely, 2 Lean.

Districts in which the opposition party has a voter registration edge:

D: 1, Westlund's seat.
R: 0.

Up For Re-Election:

Strong Districts:
21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D)-x.
22 (Portland)-Carter (D)-x.
23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D)-x.

Likely Districts:
2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).
17 (Beaverton)-Bonamicci (D)-2 year vacancy filler)
18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).
28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R)-x.

Lean Districts:
1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).
5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D)-x.
14 (West Slope)-Hass (D).
25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-x.
29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R)-x.
30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R)-x.

Tossup Districts:
9 (Stayton)-Girod (R).
12 (McMinville)-Boquist (R).
27 (Bend)-Telfer (R)-Pickup from Westlund (D).

Oregon House:

All the seats are up for election this year.

Current Composition: 31D, 29R.

Summary:

Strong D: 9.
Likely D: 10.
Leans D: 7.
Tossup D: 5.
Strong R: 0.
Likely R: 4.
Leans R: 5.
Tossup R: 20.

Uncontested Races:

D-Held: 19, 7 Strong, 6 Likely, 4 Lean, 2 Tossup.
R-Held: 6, 4 Likely, 1 Lean, 1 Tossup.

Districts in which the opposition party has a voter registration edge:

D-Held: 0.
R-Held: 6 (Berger, Nelsen, Lim, Flores, Lindland, Burley).

Strong Districts:
8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D)-x.
33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D)-x.
36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).
41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).
42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D)-x.
43 (Portland)-Shields (D)-x.
44 (Portland)-Kotek (D)-x.
45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D)-x.
46 (Portland)-Cannon (D)-x.

Likely Districts:
4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R)-x.
5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D)-x.
10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-x.
11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D)-x.
12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).
13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D)-x.
16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).
27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).
31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D)-x.
38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).
47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D)-x.
55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R)-x.
56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R)-x.
60 (Ontario)-Benz (R)-x.

Lean Districts:
2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).
3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).
6 (Medford)-Esquivel (R).
9 (Coos Bay)-Roblan (D).
14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D)-x.
28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D)-x.
34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).
35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).
40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D)-x.
48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D)-x.
53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).
57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R)-x.

Tossup Districts:
1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).
7 (Roseburg)-Hanna (R).
15 (Albany)-Olson (R).
17 (Scio)-Sprenger (R).
18 (Silverton)-Gilliam (R).
19 (Salem)-Cameron (R).
20 (Independence/Monmouth)-Berger (R).
21 (Salem)-Clem (D)-x.
22 (Woodburn)-Komp (D).
23 (Dallas)-Thompson (R).
24 (McMinnville)-Wiedner (R).
25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R)-x.
26 (Wilsonville)-Wingard (R).
29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).
30 (Hillsboro)-Edwards (D).
32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D)-x.
37 (West Linn)-Bruun (R).
39 (Canby)-Kennemer (R).
49 (Gresham)-Nelsen (R).
50 (Fairview)-Lim (R).
51 (Clackamas)-Flores (R).
52 (Corbett)-Lindland (R).
54 (Bend)-Burley (R).
58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).
59 (The Dalles)-Huffman (R).

Let me know what you think.