Blue Dawn: Final Oregon Predictions and Viewing Guide
by skywaker9, Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 08:28:31 PM EST
The genesis for this title is a Willamette Week article titled "Red Dawn" published in July of 2006 which claimed, at the time, to show evidence of a Republican surge in the Beaver State. It goes without saying that those predictions were dead wrong as the Democratic party has more than tripled its registration edge in my home state and seems poised to post strong wins statewide. Below are my final summary predictions and some things to watch Thursday.
Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do ?diaryId=1455
The Statewide Layout:
Total Registered Voters: About 2.2 Million.
Turnout Projection: 80-85%. We're at about 54% as of yesterday in Multnomah County, which closely parallels the state as a whole (http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/dbcs/elect ions/2008-11/turnout.shtml). Democrats are currently outvoting Republicans by 7% and Independents/Third Party Members are lagging well behind that pace. As of now, just less than half of the votes cast in Oregon have been cast by Democrats. I doubt that margin will hold but if we end up anywhere close to that it will be a very good night. FYI, there is not a single county in the state currently where a higher percentage of Republicans have voted than Democrats.
This means I think that about 900-950k votes will be required to win statewide, once you account for third party votes in many races.
How to Watch OR Results:
There are four good places to track Oregon's results:
Official SOS vote tracker-http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/. Note: There is no link there yet but it will go active on election night at 8 PM. This is the best statewide results tracker.
KGW (Portland's NBC affiliate)-http://www.kgw.com/. Widely considered the best in Portland, KGW often does live streams of its election results broadcasts.
The Oregonian-http://www.oregonlive.com/-Oregon's largest statewide paper, based in Portland.
The Register-Guard-http://www.registerguard.com/web/news/in dex.csp-The leading paper in Eugene, Oregon's second largest city.
Results will typically be released on the following schedule (all times Pacific):
8 PM-Ballots due, Multnomah County releases its first count (ballots cast before Monday night), expect this result to be skewed in Obama's favor.
9-9:30 PM-Major counting completed of ballots cast prior to Monday/Tuesday in most counties. Results are typically updated every 30-60 minutes.
11 PM-Most results apparent. If the margin is 3% or less we may have to wait overnight but anything more than that they'll have called it by now.
12 PM Wednesday-Count completed by this time.
FYI, exit polling IS conducted via phone survey, so you can expect a call on the Presidential race at least AT 8 PM.
Things to watch for:
Washington and Clackamas Counties-If either goes blue, Merkley will win the Senate race, period. I'm betting Washington does and Clackamas will be close.
36 State House Seats-Thanks to one of our crazy ballot measures in the 90s, you need a 3/5 majority in the legislature to pass revenue increases. We have that in the Senate and will not lose it. We need a net gain of 5 (which is I would say very possible) to get it in the State house.
Dark House State House races-There are always 1 or 2 that no one expects to be close but are (the races in Medford and the Dalles last time were and Minnis's seat was shockingly close in 2004). They are almost never actual upsets but this year they may be.
For a more detailed description of results, read my prior diary: How Blue will Oregon Be?: My Near-Final Predictions.
Size of Districts:
State House: Aprox. 55k.
State Senate: Aprox. 110k.
The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party. All minor parties are listed after the two major parties.
I=Independent Party (This IS a political party, NOT those running as independents).
P=Peace Party (Ralph Nader's party formed to get him on the ballot).
N=Not a member of a party, or what is otherwise known as independent.
US President-Obama (D).
US Senate=x-Merkley (D).
Secretary of State-Brown (D).
Attorney General-Kroger (D).
State Treasurer-Westlund (D).
Labor Commissioner-Avakian (Nonpartisan Office).
Explanation of Special Case for Measures 57/61: Once it became apparent to the legislature last year that what is now known as Measure 61 would qualify and would likely pass, they referred their own alternative (Measure 57) to the ballot. In order to deal with conflicts should both pass (as many, if not most, consider likely), the legislature put a clause in Measure 57 stating that if both pass, the one with more yes votes becomes law while the other fails.
Measure 54 (C):
Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).
Measure 55 (C):
Summary: Minor fixes to the state's redistricting process.
Measure 56 (S):
Summary: Partially repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass for May and November votes.
Measure 57 (S):
Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix's (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative. Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.
Projection: Pass with more votes than Measure 61, thus becoming law.
Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:
Measure 58 (S):
Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.
Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.
Measure 59 (S):
Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore
Summary: This is at least the third time that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns. This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state's budget.
Measure 60 (S):
Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore
Summary: This would require "merit-pay" for teachers in public schools.
Measure 61 (S):
Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix
Summary: This is Kevin Mannix's draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.
Projection: Pass but with less votes than Measure 57, thus meaning it effectively fails.
Measure 62 (C):
Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.
Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.
Measure 63 (S):
Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore
Summary: This measure would allow minor home modifications (costing less than $35k) without a permit.
Measure 64 (S):
Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore
Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.
Measure 65 (S):
Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)
Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.
Projection: Fail, narrowly.
District 1: Wu (D-inc).
District 2: Walden (R-inc).
District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc).
District 4: DeFazio (D-inc).
District 5: Schrader (D).
Key: *=Targeted Seat.
Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.
Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).
1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).
2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).
5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).
14 (West Slope/Beaverton)-Hass (D).
18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).
21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).
22 (Portland)-Carter (D).
23 (NE Portland)-x-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.
25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-This one may be a bit closer than expected because the Rs have fielded a candidate via write-in. I still believe it is going to be Monnes Anderson by a lot though.
28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).
29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).
30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).
9 (Stayton)-Girod (R).
12 (McMinnville)-Boquist (R).
*27 (Bend)-l-Telfer (R).
Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.
Projected Composition: 38 D, 22 R.
The following seats are rated either safe or likely:
1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).
2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).
3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).
4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).
5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).
7 (Roseburg)-Hanna (R).
8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).
9 (Coos Bay)-Roblan (D).
10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn't find an opponent for her.
11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).
12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).
13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).
14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).
16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).
21 (Salem)-Clem (D).
22 (Woodburn)-Komp (D).
25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).
27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).
28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).
29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).
31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).
32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).
33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).
34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).
35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).
36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).
38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).
40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).
41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).
42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).
43 (Portland)-Shields (D).
44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).
45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).
46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).
47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).
48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).
53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).
55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).
56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).
57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).
58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).
60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).
Projected Pickups (all D):
*26 (Wilsonville)-x-Adamson (D).
*37 (West Linn)-x-Eberle (D).
*49 (Gresham)-x-Kahl (D).
*50 (Fairview)-x-Matthews (D).
*51 (Clackamas)-x-Barton (D).
*52 (Corbett)-x-VanOrman (D).
*54 (Bend)-x-Stiegler (D).
Projected Holds (D or R):
Note: These are all possible takeovers by the opposition party. I am merely stating that I think they are more likely to be holds than takeovers, although in some cases, like the Canby seat, it will be very close.
6 (Medford)-Esquivel (R).
15 (Albany)-Olson (R).
17 (Scio)-Sprenger (R).
18 (Silverton)-Gilliam (R).
19 (Salem)-Cameron (R).
20 (Independence/Monmouth)-Berger (R).
23 (Dallas)-Thompson (R).
24 (McMinnville)-Wiedner (R).
*30 (Hillsboro)-Edwards (D).
*39 (Canby)-Kennemer (R).
59 (The Dalles)-Huffman (R).
Well that's it, let me know what you think.