Motion to recommit in the 110th House: very odd
by skeptic06, Fri Jul 06, 2007 at 11:51:22 AM EDT
A few minutes playing about with a spreadsheet of the 110th House roll call votes to date - the source linked here - pulled up one or two oddities which, by and by, I shall be drawn to investigate further.
Up to the start of the current recess, there have been 45 MTRs (ie, with instructions). Instructions in this context means an amendment to be made to the bill as amended in the regular process. By the rules, an MTR can only be moved by an opponent of the bill in question.
Of these 45, 31 failed and 14 passed.
This contrasts rather starkly with the MTR stats from the whole of the 109th: 51 motions, 51 failed. (The stats for the 109th and earlier Congresses from the Voteview site.)
There's more odd in the margins of defeat and victory; the average margin of failure was 38.32 votes (SD 25.51), whereas the average margin of success was 257.07 votes (SD 141.01). That's an interesting artifact, if nothing more!
That's just a toe in the water: the devil is assuredly to be found in the detail, not further statistical analysis (if that's what this has been!).
Perhaps the GOP has bumped its success rate by offer motherhood and apple pie MTRs that Dem reps would find no political embarrassment in supporting. (Nor, if so, should the Dem leadership be peeved: they'd hardly want their troops to vote against Christmas just because a GOP MTR said it was a good idea!)
Given that 10 of the 14 successful votes secured majorities in excess of 180, that's my bet.
But - if so, why did Nancy threaten to exclude MTRs under the terms of future special rules? That's what the GOP said she'd said, at least, and was the basis of their sabotage of a day's business on the floor before the recess.