Electoral Vote Math 2008
by silver spring, Sat Aug 18, 2007 at 03:53:54 PM EDT
A number of state polls have come out recently matching the top Democratic candidates against the top Republicans. It's hard to keep track of these polls, so I've put them together in this diary to see who currently is a better match against the Republicans (at least according to these polls). Yes, I have evolved into a Hillary Clinton supporter, but will happily support anyone the Democratic party nominates. I support Hillary not only because of these polls. I have been a supporter for many months now, even way back when many polls seemed to indicate that Obama might be a better general election candidate. I simply think that Hillary's experience and persona make her a stronger candidate, and as the primary race has progressed, I believe this has been reflected in the polling. I have nothing against Obama and think that he would be an incredible President -- in the future -- and my dream ticket for 2008 is "Clinton-Obama."
Hillary v. Giuliani:
Obama v. Giuliani:
Many of these polls include only match-ups of either just Hillary v. the top Republicans, or Hillary and Obama v. the top Republicans, so there is really not enough information to include Edwards here (sorry, no slight to Edwards supporters, but only the Iowa state poll includes Edwards). Likewise, although most of these polls include match-ups w/ Romney, Thompson and McCain, some match only Giuliani. We have no idea who the Republican nominee will be, but as Giuliani currently appears to be their "strongest" candidate and as some of these polls match only him, and not the other Republicans, I have made him the "de-facto" Republican nominee (we can assume, and the polling certainly hints at this, that either Hillary or Obama would have an easier time against any of the other Republicans). I'm only including polls from the last 30 days, and have put together in map format. I have tried to incorporate the recent state polls into map format and then translate what that means in terms of electoral vote math. For maps above, I have assumed that any state which Kerry carried by at least 7 points will go to the Democrat no matter what and have designated as "Solid Dem." (CA, WA, HI, IL, MD, DE, NY, CT, MA, RI, VT, ME, -- 12 states and DC of course - for 168 total electoral votes). Likewise, I will assume that any state which Bush carried in 2004 by at least 14 points will go Republican no matter what. (These 19 "Solid Rep." states are: AK, UT, ID, WY, MT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, TN, KY, IN for 153 total electoral votes). (You might ask why 7 pts. for Dems. while 14 pts. for Reps.; well, it just makes sense to me, as 2004 seemed to be a Republican year and the field was "skewed" towards them, while now the field is even to being skewed towards the Democrats, so I'm being more "generous" towards the Dem. nominee. I hope that if you look at the map and go over my list of states, it will make sense to you also which states I labeled "Solid" Dem. or Rep. Of course, part of the point of this diary is to discuss all this in the context of these state polls.)
Part of the problem here is that, out of the remaining 19 "toss-up" states only 10 have had any sort of state polling done recently where the top nominees of both parties are matched. I have not seen any polls of this type out of 9 states: NV, AZ, NM, MO, MN, WI, NC, VA, WV). On the maps, I have indicated any result where there's a tie or near tie, ie. 43-43, 42-43, 43-42, as a "tie", everything else as Dem. ahead or Rep. ahead.
The results of these state polls clearly indicate that Hillary is a stronger match against Giuliani than Obama would be. Out of the 5 battleground states where both Hillary and Obama were matched against Giuliani (FL, OH, PA, NJ and IA) in only one (Iowa) does Obama perform better than Hillary. I also have a hard time believing that Obama would do better than Hillary against Giuliani in Arkansas. Polls for NH, MI, CO and OR also do not include Obama, and it would be hard to predict how much better or worse Obama would perform in those states, but I think there is certainly a pattern in this state polling showing that overall Hillary would do better than Obama in a general election.
Current state polling now indicates that if the race were held today, Hillary would be a favorite to win the Presidency. When the solid Dem. states (168 electoral votes) are added to the states in which Hillary is clearly ahead (76 electoral votes: FL, AR, IA, MI, NJ, NH) the total is 244 EV, just 26 short of a win. We can then look at the "tied" states (Oregon - Hillary ahead 42-41; Penn. - Hillary ahead 45-44; and Ohio - Hillary behind 43-44 or tied 43-43 based on two polls). Let's assume Hillary gets Oregon and either PA or OH, and we have a 271 or 272 EV majority. Note that based on these state polls, Giuliani only gets 162 clear EV (granted he would likely pick off some of the remaining toss-up states which were not polled). Again, this scenario does not even include states like MN, WI, NV, AZ, NM, MO, NC, VA, or WV for which there is no polling. I would think that Hillary would be able to carry at least several of these.
Obama, on the other hand, would have a somewhat tougher job. When the solid Dem. states (168 electoral votes) are added to Iowa (the only polled toss-up state in which Obama clearly leads) we have only 175 electoral votes. Giuliani, meanwhile, would have a total of 236 (153 solid Rep. plus 83 "Giuliani leads" in FL, OH, PA and NJ). His 236 is just 34 under the magic number and I think he would surely make that up out of the remaining "not polled" states (OR, NV, AZ, NM, CO, AR, MO, MN, WI, MI, NH, VA, WV, NC). Bottom line: it looks like it may come down to FL, OH and PA again, and maybe NJ too if Giuliani is the nominee. Right now, it looks like Hillary is doing relatively better than Obama in all these battleground states. Where Obama is clearly behind, Hillary is either clearly ahead or tied/barely ahead, depending on the state. The electoral vote math, as things stand now, favors her for the general.
The polls of battleground states included here are:
Arkansas (Rasmussen, Aug. 14-15):
Hillary 55
Giuliani 37
Michigan (Rasmussen, Aug. 14-15):
Hillary 49
Giuliani 40
Oregon (Rasmussen, Aug. 14):
Hillary 42
Giuliani 41
New Hampshire (Rasmussen, Aug. 8):
Hillary 44
Giuliani 40
Florida (Rasmussen, Aug. 8):
Hillary 49
Giuliani 44
Florida (Quinnipiac, Aug. 8):
Hillary 46
Giuliani 44
Obama 41
Giuliani 44
Colorado (Rasmussen, Aug. 8):
Hillary 40
Giuliani 50
Ohio (Rasmussen, Aug. 8):
Hillary 43
Giuliani 44
Ohio (Quinnipiac, Aug. 8):
Hillary 43
Giuliani 43
Obama 39
Giuliani 42
New Jersey (Rutgers-Eagleton, Aug. 2-7):
Hillary 47
Giuliani 44
Obama 43
Giuliani 45
Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac, Aug. 8):
Hillary 45
Giuliani 44
Obama 39
Giuliani 45
Iowa (Research 2000, Jul. 23-25):
Hillary 41
Giuliani 37
Obama 45
Giuliani 36
Edwards 43
Giuliani 37
One state I did not list above is California which I labeled "solid Dem." However, a recent poll did come out there which also reinforces the point that, as where things stand now, Hillary is just a stronger general election candidate:
California (Field Poll, Aug. 3-12):
Hillary 52
Giuliani 37
Obama 48
Giuliani 38
Edwards 47
Giuliani 42
Tags: clinton, Electoral Vote, obama, president (all tags)
-----------
myDD - skin
-----------
188 Comments