The debate may have won it for her.

We're seeing an interesting uptick in Hillary's poll numbers today.

Both of these polls had one day of polling that took place after Hillary's debate performance, and virtually all the data comes after the Florida primary and the departure of Edwards.

After a few days of tightening, the Rasmussen national tracking poll is starting to show a reversal of this trend. Hillary now leads by 8:

Clinton 45%
Obama 37%

Even more striking is the uptick in today's Gallup national tracking poll...check it out. We have seen a clear tightening in this poll over the last couple of weeks, but Hillary suddenly shot up 4 points today while Barack has held steady:

Clinton 48%
Obama 41%

Note that these numbers are also in keeping with the Fox poll released yesterday. Most, if not all, of this data was collected before the debate, but after the Florida/Edwards news.

-----

You've heard me mention the debate more than once. It seemed obvious to me at the time that it was a huge victory for Hillary. And don't accuse me of having blinders on....for instance I thought Edwards clearly won the South Carolina debate.

Barack did better in the Iraq segment and it may have been his best overall debate, but it wasn't enough. On question after question, Hillary was more commanding and knowledgeable. Really, its simply the difference between a good debater and a great one. And on top of that, she was more likable....delivering the zinger of not only the night but of her entire campaign. Never in my life have I seen a more rapturous response to an answer at a debate. When the massive applause finally waned....it just started right back up again. Poor Wolf had to go to a commercial break!

Another crucial piece of evidence: A diary detailing why Hillary won the debate shot to the very top of the recommended list over at DailyObama. There ya go.

I know this analysis goes against the CW on many blogs and in some quarters of the media. However, keep in mind that there was a similar reaction to the debate in New Hampshire....and how'd that one turn out, in hindsight? I said on DKos at the time (in a comment now in the dustbin) that I thought Hillary would win New Hampshire with that debate performance. My feeling after the last debate was the same: She just won Super Tuesday.

And for once, even Kos agrees with me.

Tags: Barack Obama, Election 2008, Hillary Clinton (all tags)

Comments

116 Comments

very interesting, huh?

let me know if you disagree.

by Scan 2008-02-02 08:51AM | 0 recs
Well, I agree...

You are right that Obama may have been able to shine during the Iraq segment, mainly because the focus was on the past instead of what both are doing NOW to end the occupation. However during the rest of the debate, before AND after that segment, Hillary simply outshone Obama. She knows her stuff on the economy, she dominated on health care, she set the record straight on immigration... Heck, even when the Iraq talk moved back to what's happening now, HILLARY took charge in talking about her legislation in the Senate NOW to stop Bush from making the Iraq occupation permanent. Hillary took command, and I think this may be her secret weapon going into Super Duper Tuesday. ;-)

by atdleft 2008-02-02 09:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Well, I agree...

Interesting that Obama has taken Hillary's war vote to a new level - now saying he wouldn't be a president with Hillary's "mindset" that led us to war.
But Obama's "mindset" was quite silent on the war after he entered the Senate - and voted with Repubs to "support the troops" by continuing the war he "opposed."

Why did Obama stop "supporting the troops" in 2007?

by annefrank 2008-02-02 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: very interesting, huh?

Some thoughts ...

The Rasmussen and Gallup polls are both tracking polls. Clinton got a significant bounce from both which suggest a one day spread of 17 fro Rasmussen and 15 on Gallup.

Gallup did an analysis of why Obama was gaining and it was apparently because women because disenchanted with Clinton as the MSM demonised her since SC. Then the debate happened and, I bet, all those women came back to Clinton.

CNN did an analysis with undecided voters and 20% more thought Clinton. Clearly, irrespective what the pundits say, the people thought Clinton won.

by kristoph 2008-02-02 09:13AM | 0 recs
Re: very interesting, huh?

I think you're being overly optimistic scan.

Nice news, good news. But I saw a headline where she's down in NM. And then Ethel Kennedy's endorsement. I do appreciate the good news though. Thank for posting; lifts my spirits.

by India 2008-02-02 02:20PM | 0 recs
Re: very interesting, huh?

Thanks for this diary, it's nice to finally find some people who don't demonize Clinton at every turn, and live in some alternate reality where any semblance of realism is treated as alien. I'm working in the field for the Senator, and have been getting extremely aggravated by the complete idolatry occurring over at Kos. Again, Thank You.

by Cambridgeliberal 2008-02-02 07:01PM | 0 recs
Re: very interesting, huh?

Ethyl Kennedy's endosement has you down? C'mon, buck up, li'l camper! It's not like every 4 years candidates vie for just a taste of that Ethyl Kennedy mojo. She's just one member of a moderately influential family. The only reason the media even mentioned her is that she endorsed Obama and not Clinton.

by itsthemedia 2008-02-02 08:15PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

But will she win in November?  She has to run close to even among independents.

by mikelow1885 2008-02-02 08:54AM | 0 recs
Clinton-Obama '08!!!

The unity ticket certain to win!

by Beltway Dem 2008-02-02 08:56AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

You're damn right she will win in November. If Democrats stop playing defeatism and say I support my candidate and we will win and fight for it, she will win.

by RJEvans 2008-02-02 09:00AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

She will win and then we will lose Congress in 2010.  She better be damn quick to pass universal healthcare because that window will be closed after the 2010 elections.  

by Toddwell 2008-02-02 09:03AM | 0 recs
Gimme a friggin' break!

You don't even know what will happen in 2010 with either Hillary or Barack as President, so stop trying to assume that "we'll lose Congress" if Hillary's our President. Maybe once we get universal health care passed, a climate & energy plan passed, a REAL economic recovery plan passed, and we being our troops home from Iraq, Hillary might just do what it takes for us to GAIN Congressional seats in 2010 and beyond. ;-)

by atdleft 2008-02-02 09:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Gimme a friggin' break!

I think we may even lose some seats this November if she is the candidate.  i think you're forgetting how dedicated the conservatives are.  when they see her name on the ballot, they'll flock to the voting polls like flies on you know what.  while they're there, they'll vote for the conservative congresspaerson in their district and the conservative senator of their state.  I think the Clinton hatred runs rabidly high in the bible belt for both HRC and BC.

by gabejack 2008-02-03 06:17AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Toddwell, this is ridiculous.  For your argument to even hold up against scrutiny, you have to prove that (i) Clinton would lose the House in 2010 (which is impossible to speculate at this point), (ii) that Obama could do better and (iii) that Obama would do better.  Stop spitting out speculation without the proof to back it up; this is only February 2008, please do not pretend to know what will happen nearly three years from now.

by ejintx 2008-02-02 09:18AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

What the hell is wrong with you people, is like you want to lose! It's like your duty to see that Clinton loses. At least tell me you would consider voting for her and supporting her.

by RJEvans 2008-02-02 09:23AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I would rather lose congress than lose the white house; if we lose the white house, no end in iraq, no universal health care and continued tax cuts for the wealthy and no stem cell research.

by American1989 2008-02-02 09:34AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Do you think Clinton will end the war in Iraq?  Hell no.  And the new Republican Congress is likely to pass HUGE tax cuts for the wealthy and Clinton will sign it to get the tax issue off the table.  You think she will get universal health care through a Republican Congress?  Hell no.  Im gonna laugh so hard it you guys after we get massacred in the 2010 midterms.  We will be down to about 180 seats in the House and you will all be wishing that we never had a President Hillary.  

by Toddwell 2008-02-02 11:09AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

"the new Republican Congress"

Whhaatt?  You live in some other country or something?

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-02 02:33PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

It will come in 2010.  How do you expect Democrats to be able to hold onto seats like IN-02, IN-08, IN-09, NC-11, AZ-05, and CA-11 without even slightly lower Democratic turnout?  We will lose these seats and our majority if we have anything close to a 1994 like election in 2010.  

by Toddwell 2008-02-02 03:18PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Have you LOOKED at the fucking Democratic turnout this year?  It's off the charts!

by WMCB 2008-02-02 08:25PM | 0 recs
May I quote US Grant here?

When Grant took over the Army of the Potomac, his generals were so thoroughly intimidated by Lee that he finally snapped, "'Bobby Lee, Bobby Lee'! Quit worrying about what he's gonna do to you and start thinking about what you're gonna do to him."

You could take a lesson from Grant.

by itsthemedia 2008-02-02 08:32PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I believe that they poured some strong Scotch in with that kool-aid they served at Obama Grand Central tonight.  :-)

by georgep 2008-02-02 06:58PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I say screw this DEM shit.  I am tired of this kind of political team playing.  Vote for the best candidate.  vote for the person who appeals to everyone, not just the democrats.  I want someone who can find common ground with the conservative movement and appeal to them as well, letting them know about the urgent moment in our country right now and that we cannot be divided.  I am tired of settling for a candidate I don't believe in just because he or she happens to be on the right team.  screw that I say.

by gabejack 2008-02-03 06:25AM | 0 recs
Iraq

If this primary were about the Iraq AUMF then many of the Obama supporters would be correct to claim that he won that debate. But this primary is not about the Iraq AUMF, it is about how to lead the country out of the mess Bush and the Republicans have driven us into.

by souvarine 2008-02-02 08:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Iraq

But Barak didn't vote on the AUMF souvarine. Had he been a Senator back then he would have voted "present" or abstained or something. Actually I beleive he would have voted yes for the AUMF. All of his remarks during that period indicate it. He evn said he and Bush were on the same page, pretty much. And he thought Rummy was doing a heck of a job (well, thought he was in the mainstream!), when every Dem was calling for Rummy's head (except Lieberamnn and a few others).

And to top it off Barack votes aye on Condi Rice.

by India 2008-02-02 02:39PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I definitely hope this is the case. But please....we don't need Kos to validate any of our points.

Of all people...not him!

by 1986dude 2008-02-02 09:05AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

By the way no endorsements from anymore big wigs.

Richardson isn't endorsing but for all its worth he is watching the game on sunday with the president.

Edwards is not endorsing too.

As well as Gore .

So on that front thats great news.

by lori 2008-02-02 09:07AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Clinton is doing her 20 state simulcast on Monday. There is some gossip it will include a big endorsement or perhaps even several.

I doubt it would be Gore but I could see Richardson, Biden, possibly Edwards.

by kristoph 2008-02-02 09:17AM | 0 recs
Harry and Louise

That ad on healthcare may do in Obama.  It was mean and vindictive.

If Hillary can survive the Beltway primary on the 12th, she'll wrap up the nomination.

by mikelow1885 2008-02-02 09:27AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I think we are seeing this up tick for HRC because the last debate was the most watched in cable history.  More people were able to compare them side  by side and the undecided people are breaking for Hillary. I believe that debate will prove more decisive than any amount of advertising, punditry or endorsements that are being broadcast.

I also believe that you will begin to see both candidates close the gap on the small advantage that McCain has nationally because of that debate.

by Mr Man 2008-02-02 09:07AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

McCain is toast whoever wins our primary.

by India 2008-02-02 02:47PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I really feel that Hillary stood out at the debate. She was clearly in command of the facts and showed her smarts on the issues.

The most important duty of the President is Commander in Chief. Protecting America always comes first,always. Sen. Obama wasnt on the Senate floor casting a vote. At the saying goes Hindsight is 20/20.

by Safe at Home 2008-02-02 09:21AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

If Hillary holds all the 2004 Dem. states and retakes N.M. & Iowa and throw in Arkansas = 270.

by Safe at Home 2008-02-02 09:56AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

There's a headline about NM.

by India 2008-02-02 02:50PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I thought this was true while watching the debate - I'm so stoked to have it be verified in some polls.

There is no doubt that Obama did a great job with what he has in his arsenal.  But all he really has is his position on a vote that he did not have to cast, and for which he later let Kerry and Edwards off the hook. Clinton clearly dominates in every single other issue, and is "likable enough" to get elected in November. If Obama had been a leader in the Senate the last two years for either getting out of the war or restoring the constitution, as I expected him to be when he got elected, I would be 100% behind him. As it is, his positions are so similar to Clinton's that I prefer her experience.

I also noticed that even the radio hosts that are self-identified as pro-Obama, such as Cenk Uygar and Ed Shultz, were honest enough to say that they at least both did well.  If they had thought for a minute that Obama had gotten a bounce out of that debate they would have been crowing about it, like they do his speeches.

Either of these two can beat McCain in November.

by ocli 2008-02-02 10:03AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

ocli; I love this from your post: "his position on a vote that he did not have to cast ..". I'm going to use this in my conversations because it is is powerful in it's simplicity. I wish Hillary would say just these words over and over and over and over again.

by India 2008-02-02 02:58PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

God, I hope you're right.  When I think of all the debates and her substance, passion, and plans for her Presidency, I just really think she is the one.  If she pulls off the nomination, she will have overcame the media,  the hype, and the side shows, to reach the voters, which would be an amazing accomplishment.  I do think when she is side by side with Obama, people immediately see the difference between the two and she (imo) is miles ahead of him.

by Kingstongirl 2008-02-02 10:04AM | 0 recs
Re: VP is the BIG QUESTION

Obama is not making a very good case for himself as VP pick by putting out negative ads against her.  He is giving her a very good excuse not to pick him - why should she feel obligated to have him as VP if he does not support universal health care?

by ocli 2008-02-02 10:06AM | 0 recs
Re: VP is the BIG QUESTION

I have never heard Obama express any interest in the VP position.

by itsthemedia 2008-02-02 09:24PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

It looks good, but Obama is gonna have to make it through the Rezko grinder unscathed before he's considered viable for VP.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-02 10:20AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

My thoughts EXACTLY.

by Scan 2008-02-02 10:28AM | 0 recs
EXACTLY

by Seymour Glass 2008-02-02 11:41AM | 0 recs
I doubt there will be more bombshells

on that story, but the simplistic version based on facts we know now just don't look good for Obama.

Bottom line is that he wanted a nicer house than he could afford, and he got Rezko to buy part of the lot so that the seller would accept the Obamas' bid for the house.

Even if he hasn't done any favors for Rezko, no laws were broken, etc., it doesn't look good. A lot of people can relate to wanting a bigger house than they can afford, but who is able to get a rich businessman to step in and make the sale possible?

by desmoinesdem 2008-02-02 10:53AM | 0 recs
Re: I doubt there will be more bombshells

EXACTLY

by Seymour Glass 2008-02-02 11:42AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Who says Obama wants anything to do with a VP slot? Contrary to what you may think, Clinton needs Obama more than he needs her.

He could easily wait out this cycle and either run again in 2012 against either a 76 year old McCain, who is likely to have a failed presidency, or against whoever McCain's VP pick is.  Either way, Obama would cruise to the nomination in 2012 and be in a pretty strong position to win.

If Clinton wins, Obama can leave the Senate and head back to Illinois and win the Governorship in a landslide. He'd have heavy executive experiecence and still be a Washington outsider in 2016. Which one of Clinton's eventual running mates does he have to fear in a primary that year? Evan Bayh? LOL. A 75 year old Ted Strickland? Tom Vilsack? A 71 year old Wes Clark?

I think it's likely Mark Penn and the Clintons won't pick Obama unless there is uncontrollable pressure from the party put on them to do so. They don't want Hillary to potentially be overshadowed by the media attention he'd get.

I think either Strickland or Bayh are almost a lock to be her running mate should she win. Strickland would be much better than Bayh since he actually helps in a specific state. Clinton will not win Indiana with Bayh on the ticket, and his impact on the campaign trail would be limited at best (think of John Edwards with a more boring stump speech and less compelling biography in 2004).

by Hadi 2008-02-02 11:26AM | 0 recs
Rezko

Rezko

by Seymour Glass 2008-02-02 11:45AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

No she need some male testosterone magic to counter McCain. Webb or similar. Clark doesn't cut it. Actually Webb is so perfect. If Obama is beaten he'll fade soon enough and if I was him would I really want it. Make a name in the senate or go back and win the governorship. Much better options really.    

by ottovbvs 2008-02-02 11:55AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

But Jerome; The Tribune endorsed Obama with Rezko, so it must not be a big deal for Obama. Also I'm sure Teedy and Caroline and now Ethel would not endorse if there were any nint of a potential legal sideshow with Rezko. Just sayin'.

by India 2008-02-02 03:13PM | 0 recs
.Ted and Ethel

I don't think they help - Hillary may be the 1990's, but the Kennedys are pretty 1960's.

by nascardem 2008-02-02 04:25PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

That is rather ironic. He has to make it through the Rezko grinder unscathed before he's considered viable for VP. Yet, he doesn't have to make it though the Rezko grinder to be viable for President.

by MOBlue 2008-02-02 05:04PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

If you assume Hillary won on the health care issue, and Obama won on the Iraq vote issue, then I think Hillary's win trumps.  In the real world (outside the blogosphere), most people  are not interested in a vote that happened 5 years ago and how it pertains to the general election.  They grasp one general election Iraq issue - Obama and Hillary both want the troops out of Iraq, McCain doesn't. And I think they will take away one issue from the health care debate - Hillary wants universal health care for everyone - Obama doesn't.  If Obama compares mandatory health insurance to mandatory car insurance - does that mean we shouldn't have to buy car insurance if we don't think we need it - but can pick it up later if we do? In my view, that argument is ridiculous for car insurance - and equally ridiculous for health insurance.

by AnnC 2008-02-02 10:20AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

The problem is Illinois politics are rife with crooks and shady characters. I think this Rezko problem isnt going away soon.If a miracle occurs and Obama is the nominee I see a McCain 40 state blowout. Lets rally to Sen Clinton and take back the White House.The stakes are too high. Obama wouldnt help the ticket. Just Ask John Kerry, who I went through the wall for.

by Safe at Home 2008-02-02 10:42AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I will work to make sure Hillary loses the general.  You people are cutting off your noses to spite your face.  Do you feel like seeing 24/7 Clinton bashing for the next eight years while getting nothing done?

by Toddwell 2008-02-02 11:07AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

ERR and your a Democrat Toddwell. I hope you enjoy another three Alito's on the supreme court

by ottovbvs 2008-02-02 11:10AM | 0 recs
The Supreme Court: I agree 100% n/t

by Decided Voter 2008-02-02 11:52AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I really don't care about the Supreme Court.  What decisions has the court made recently that I should care one bit about?

by Toddwell 2008-02-02 12:09PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

You make pick up your Myopia Certificate in the lobby on the way out.  

The Supremes hold sway on everything from Choice to restrictive election laws, the power of the presidency vs. Congress and the power of the federal government vs. the states.   You may not care about it but for me it's one of the top three election issues.

by InigoMontoya 2008-02-02 12:17PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I don't know you so I can't know what you care about.  I can tell you that I will be voting for a Democrat in November regardless of the nominee.

The court has recently decided or will soon decide on the scope of power for the Executive branch, Choice (late term/parental consent), Gay rights (Lawrence vs. Texas), voting rights (this session), Bush vs. Gore/Florida, environmental protections, affirmative action, etc.

I assumed incorrectly that you might know what the court means to Democratic values and its threat or enhancement of them since you frequent and comment on this site.  To me, that means you're more politically active than the average American.  I would HOPE that you would know what the court has done and how and to what degree it could impact you or those you care about whether you're a Democrat OR a Republican.  It's important to all of us though from usually opposing perspectives.

Case in point: Justice John Paul Stevens (liberal/fair-minded)  will be 88 when the next president is sworn in.  I think he's waiting for a Democrat to appoint since Bush has appointed staunch conservatives that usually vote to the right of him.  A Democrat will replace him with someone similar to him keeping the courts swing slightly-to-right balance. A Republican will appoint a conservative and we will have a sharply right/conservative court for the next 20 years or so since all the conservatives are younger than the liberals.

Not incidentally, it's not just the Supreme Court here that's at stake - it's appointments to the entire federal judiciary.

Knowing this and not caring about it would seem emotionally irrational to me.  I'm sure BOTH Hillary and Barack care about the balance of the courts.  In being prominent leaders for us right now, I will gladly follow their lead!

Hope this helps.    

by Decided Voter 2008-02-02 01:17PM | 0 recs
You're an idiot

There was the 2000 election.
They are about to approve voter identification laws.
Restricted affirmative action.
Restricted employment discrimination law suits.
Approved statutes placing limits on choice.

by nascardem 2008-02-02 04:29PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Todwell; why let the press control you?

by India 2008-02-02 03:28PM | 0 recs
Debate or employment numbers/reality check

The emphasis on the debate does rather reflect that most posters here don't seem to read anything other than political news. On Friday the announced awful employment numbers for January the worst for for years. I'd say this had at least as much impact as the debate because it probably accelerated the natural tendency to make a reality check as you get nearer to making a decision. All the polls even the ones showing Obama gaining have continued ot show Clinton well ahead as a manager. It was probably going to happen anyway but the employment numbers and her solid performance in the debate have probably assisted in bring home the voters to Momma.  

by ottovbvs 2008-02-02 10:43AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

How many people watched the debate?  I recall that 5 million watched the previous one.

by Steve M 2008-02-02 10:44AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I'm guessing the numbers were somewhat higher for this one since they are down to two candidates and it was always a bit jokey when there were seven of them up there. So maybe it did have a bigger impact than I think but I still hold to to view that voters do flirt and unless the sale is closed they go back to comfort zone. Obama is a great guy but when it comes down to who do I want to entrust the family jewels to?  

by ottovbvs 2008-02-02 11:07AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

dont have the numbers offhand, but it was the highest in cable history....8 mil+.

by Scan 2008-02-02 11:15AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

8mil + is very big so maybe it did make ripples. I don't want to start the who won argument all over again, please, but there was no doubt she consolidated her credentials for knowledge and competence. Absent the AUMF which is so important here but not generally she was very much in the driving seat.

by ottovbvs 2008-02-02 11:19AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I seem to recall 5mil was enough to set the previous record!

It says something that a primary debate could be a cable "event."  Love the interest.

by Steve M 2008-02-02 12:02PM | 0 recs
Re: VP is the BIG QUESTION

I think that she'll have to wait until the Rezko trial is over before considering Obama. If he's called as a witness it could be poisonous to have him on the ticket.

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-02 10:48AM | 0 recs
just spoke to my 60-something stepmother

She lives in NY, which we all know will go for Hillary, but I thought the conversation was interesting.

She was for Edwards all last year and really did not like Hillary. Of course she has voted for Hillary for Senate, because she is a single-issue voter on choice and always votes Democrat, but she really didn't want Hillary to win the primary.

She works in a "creative class" field, so I thought there was a chance she'd break for Obama, but she is for Hillary 100 percent now. She thought Hillary did great in the debate and is more prepared for the job than Obama.

by desmoinesdem 2008-02-02 10:50AM | 0 recs
Re: just spoke to my 60-something stepmother

This is the problem Obama faces in the GE. Elderly White Voters will be a tough sell for him.

by Safe at Home 2008-02-02 11:12AM | 0 recs
Re: just spoke to my 60-something stepmother

Hey I'm not elderly

by ottovbvs 2008-02-02 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: just spoke to my 60-something stepmother

I apologize.

by Safe at Home 2008-02-02 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: just spoke to my 60-something stepmother

Just my little joke.

by ottovbvs 2008-02-02 12:54PM | 0 recs
my stepmother would vote for him in the general

just not in the primary.

Someone at Daily Kos wrote a comment a few days ago that really rang true for me. If you're a working woman over 50, how many times have you seen the hotshot young guy get the job, or get the promotion, ahead of the very smart, experienced, hard-working woman? Too many times. I think those feelings are partly why the older women break so heavily for Clinton.

by desmoinesdem 2008-02-02 12:11PM | 0 recs
Re: my stepmother would vote for him in the genera

exactly and the reality is that there is no good reason for it them or now.

by MollieBradford 2008-02-02 04:51PM | 0 recs
Hey

Every time I hear one of these references to old voters, boomer voters, and the like, I now quote Randy Quaid's line from Independence Day, as he is about to destroy the enemy alien ship:

"In the words of my generation, UP YOURS!"

by nascardem 2008-02-02 04:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Hey

Are you saying up yours to the kids who say boomers are older?

by del 2008-02-02 05:49PM | 0 recs
I Also Think Obama Will Have Problems In The G.E.

I think the more uncertain the economy and other aspects of day to day life becomes, the more people will want experience. Someone who they think can get the job done. Obama is perceived fairly or not by many as lacking in experience.  

by MOBlue 2008-02-02 05:19PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I'm a 60 yr old Male who is a staunch Hillary supporter and I hope she wins the D Nomination

I also think she can beat McCain

But we are only in the 4th inning and there is a lot of strategy yet to play out. Waht we see now is not necessarily what we will see in the Fall

As a Hillary supporter (I'd pick her over Obama any day), I'm concerned about 2 looming issues

McCain knows that he needs to appease the GOP mainline base in oreder for him to better solidify his winning in November

So, I think that he will 'soon' announce to all that 1)he is only going to run 1 term, and 2)he will pick a running mate that will inspire the GOP base ("hey it's only 4 yrs and looks who we get in 2012")

If Hillary wins the nomination, my sense is McCain will choose Condi

If  Obama wins, McCain will likely choose a man

BOTH Hillary and Obama will choose a white man as their running mate--O/H or H/O is not in the cards.

My second concern is what will Bloomberg do. If Hill wins the nomination on F5 (doubtful), Bloomberg may jump in, thinking that Mccain is hated by the GOP base---but Bllomberg has filing deadline issues (?) and may have to wait till say March 5?--when is Texas?

Also Bloomberg might suspect that McCain is going to make a sweet deal with the GOP base and go 1 term plus have Condi as his running mate--That might cause Bloomberg to stay on the sidelines

by ionsys 2008-02-02 11:09AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I'd love him to choose Rice. Unfortunately she's not going to be stupid enough to put her head into this grinder. Why would I love it. Because Bush is already going to be an invisible presence on the ticket, add Rice and they may as well print the bumper stickers McCain/Bush(Rice)

by ottovbvs 2008-02-02 11:14AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Oh Lord, Pleeeeeeeze let him choose Condi! First campaign commercial after he picks Condi


RICE: I remember very well that the president was aware that there were issues inside the United States. He talked to people about this. But I don't remember the al Qaeda cells as being something that we were told we needed to do something about.

BEN-VENISTE: Isn't it a fact, Dr. Rice, that the August 6 PDB warned against possible attacks in this country? And I ask you whether you recall the title of that PDB?

RICE: I believe the title was, "Bin Laden Determined to Attack Inside the United States."


by itsthemedia 2008-02-02 10:47PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I am a 51 year old Union Steamfitter and a staunch Hillary supporter. Being in construction I hear the Gun Nuts all the time. I hope Hillary lets the Gun issue alone & focuses on rebuilding America. We need Green Power Plants and Green Collar Jobs. This will be equivalent to the 90's boom and jobs will be aplenty.

by Safe at Home 2008-02-02 11:20AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

We need Hillary and Union Jobs.

by Seymour Glass 2008-02-02 11:50AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Amen Brother!

by Safe at Home 2008-02-02 12:43PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I suggest you read the ed in today's WSJ which is right wing Republican central attacking McCain. It's hard to tell who they are more incensed about Clinton who the can see winning or McCain.  

by ottovbvs 2008-02-02 12:06PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Framecop is still in mourning about Edwards being out of the race. I think he is past denial now and into anger. Work though it Framecop - we're here for ya!

Myself, I plan to stick with denial. Feb 5, comes the Gravelanche!!!

by itsthemedia 2008-02-02 10:53PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Now that McCain won the Republican nomination, there is no way that Blloomberg gets in.  McCain has too much appeal to moderate Republicans and independents--no space for Bloomberg.

Hmmm, Condi Rice.  That could be dangerous.  Perhaps that possibility provides even stronger motivation for Hillary to choose Obama as VP?

by markjay 2008-02-02 12:15PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Oooh interesting ionsys. Condi as a VP; Could even Obama stop that train, I don't know. Or what about Colin?

by India 2008-02-02 03:45PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

you may well be right re Condi--but if Hill is our nominee, I think McCain will be enticed at the idea of choosing a strong woman as his running mate--and that plus "only 4 yrs" may well energize the base and enable McCain to pull the GOP base in

Christine Whitman?  etc etc

I think Hillary will go with Clark, who has strong defense cards as well as being a southerner. I think Obama would go with a white man from the West Coast or someone with a resume. He might even entice a Chuck Hagle if Bloomberg stays out so as to reduce the GOP base effect. Hagel is currently for Bloomberg

Bloomberg worries me

by ionsys 2008-02-02 11:33AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Christine Whitman is McCain on steroids for the Republican "base" McCain has much more serious problems with the Republican base than anyone is recognising. Most regular Republicans will of course rally round the flag but many won't and there will just not be the energy amongst the footsoldiers do the donkey work. For example suppose a democrat 527 starts running ads around the subject of immigration with clips of McCain calling for amnesties etc. This guy is massively vulnerable although he was the strongest Republican candidate. In Iraq for a hundred years. Bomb bomb Iran etc. I regret to say it but Democrats can sound a bit like pantywaists at times. This guy can be beaten by Clinton, not by Obama but by Clinton.    

by ottovbvs 2008-02-02 11:43AM | 0 recs
McCain can't choose Whitman or Rice

They are pro-choice.

He has to choose an anti-choice running mate. Someone trusted by the evangelicals. If it's a woman, it has to be a Kay Bailey Hutchison type. But my bet would be on a man.

by desmoinesdem 2008-02-02 12:12PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain can't choose Whitman or Rice

The fat old white men versus Amelia Earhart and her bodyguard Jim Webb.

by ottovbvs 2008-02-02 12:30PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Chuck Hagel is an awesome man. Good grief, I wish Hillary would consider him or Jim Webb. I'm a forever Clark supporter, but don't think he'd hold up in the VP debates.

by India 2008-02-02 03:53PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Hagel is a die hard conservative on all social issues. I would have a very hard time supporting any Democratic ticket with a Republican on it, especially a extremely conservative Republican like Hagel.

by MOBlue 2008-02-02 05:25PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

True.  Hagel has an unwarranted image of being a moderate purely because he's not insane on Iraq.

by InigoMontoya 2008-02-02 06:03PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Do not worry about Bloomberg, he is out. They put up a web site with an astroturf "draft Bloomberg" petition, and he got like 37 signatures. A third party run is not viable this year - too much interest in the major party candidates.

by itsthemedia 2008-02-02 10:59PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Good polls numbers today for our gal.  Fingers crossed everyone.  I'm a nervous wreck!!

by Regan 2008-02-02 11:45AM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.


speaking about debates....

Iam going little of the topic. Just watched the
cspan hillary rally. Really impressed with the way Hillary improved (technically- tone, modulation,pitch etc.).

Watching Hillary over the years I didnt think she can make that adjustment. She has evolved and refined throughout this campaign. I hope she can keep it up.

Leaving Bill Clinton aside(he is 800 pound gorilla interms of straight connecting from the screen) GWB is relatively stronger when compared to Gore and Kerry who rushed their
speeches without connecting one bit emotionally.

by BlueSea 2008-02-02 12:24PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Absolutely agree. She far and away the most improved stump speeker of this campaign. Obama is still better in that kind of setting, but she has definetly closed the gap.

by Christopher Lib 2008-02-02 01:48PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

If Obama is such a great stump speaker, why is he using a teleprompter to read all of his stump speeches these days?

In all my years of watchin presidential campaigns, I've never seen anyone have to do that.

by hwc 2008-02-02 06:32PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

They tried giving him paper copies of his speeches, but he kept losing them.  ;)

by itsthemedia 2008-02-02 11:01PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

My wife and I share the same sentiment about Clinton and Obama. Barack is a great orator, but seems to be short on substance. Every time we listen to Hillary we learn something. And we're roughly 60, so it's not like we haven't been around the block.

And in case anyone's interested, Edwards was the first choice for both of us.

by Bob Miller 2008-02-02 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Behind ever successful man is a strong woman. A woman is a mans backbone. That is what Snoop Dogg sezs. Dont you agree.

by Safe at Home 2008-02-02 12:48PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Yup. I feel really confident that Hillary will  win Super Tuesday and go on to win the nomination. I just saw her via C-Span at the California State University rally. The energy and excitement was palpable. When she  spoke of the economy and kitchen table issues people, especially women in the audience nodded in agreement. This was not one of those superficial Obama rallies, where everyone is giddy with rapture of the second coming. This rally resonated with the energy of mutual respect, admiration and a sense of real possibilities and viable alternatives. I liked that Hillary asked people to hire her, to vote for her, with a sense of humility and dignity in her asking. And the mainly Latino crowd responded with deep felt enthusiasm. You can't PR that kind of sympatico despite the best efforts of the MSM to push Obama as  Gods man on earth, Hillary had none of Obama's high flown  prophetic rhetoric. Hillary understands the every day language and realities of the kitchen table and that is why she will win as the Democratic President of the United States. Viva Hillary! It was always the economy stupid, not Iraq.

by superetendar 2008-02-02 12:29PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

He is a great speaker but then so was William Jennings Bryan. And he has substance but not seasoning. She is simply the better choice.  

by ottovbvs 2008-02-02 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

Like Bob vila in a Home Depot looking very comfortable.

by BlueSea 2008-02-02 12:43PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

It was a really good rally wasn't it? I felt the same way after watching Hillary at townhall meetings in New Hampshire. Lots of concentrated energy in the hall.  A good sign.

by superetendar 2008-02-02 01:10PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.


I agree. I saw a lot more dimensions to Hillary
from since last 7 to 8 months.

without sounding cliche words - she gives an impression of tough & steady lady, wealth of knowledge, quick on feet,wise while speaking.
She looks more of a substance and lately showing her flair since NH.

All the debates she made her presence in field of 8 without overly dominating.

by BlueSea 2008-02-02 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

That was my thought about the debate. It was about issues, not a mud fight. So Hillary won.

by moi moi 2008-02-02 01:15PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I thought Hillary did extremely well in the debate (and Obama was very strong as well).

When the tracking polls started narrowing I attributed it to polling noise. For consistency I'll say the same thing again.

by OrangeFur 2008-02-02 01:50PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I'm not going to get overconfident until I see her have a major super Tuesday success, but I am feeling better about her chances. It's going to come down to organization and get out the vote. If Hillary can replicate what she did in New Hampshire and Nevada across the country than it will be a big night for her.

by Christopher Lib 2008-02-02 02:15PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.
the MSM has been trying to downplay hillary's performance in the debate, but the undecided voters (whose ratings displayed on CNN's meter) ended up favoring hillary over obama, 60 to 40. leave it up to the MSM to call a 20% win a "slight" preference. sheesh.
by nance 2008-02-02 04:21PM | 0 recs
Fun with numbers
Has anyone noticed that the poll numbers cited in the article were used in a misleading way? Instead of showing that Clinton's lead is  growing, the latest Rasmussen numbers actually show that Obama cut her lead in half since their previous poll in January. The most recent national polls show the race tightening.
And if you're going to cite Rasumussen, you might want to note that it shows the lead down to 3 points in California!
Clearly, the momentum everywhere is with Obama!
The American people know that he is someone special, someone we haven't seen since RFK.
Clinton may be a better policy wonk debater, but that's not what Presidents do. They lead and inspire a nation (and the world), and they show good, consistent, and honest judgement.
(And they don't drag psychodrama back into the White House.)
by tmginnova 2008-02-02 06:07PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I felt Hillary won the debate quite convincingly.  She scored on many levels.  As for the Iraq vote, people don't GET that a vast majority of voters is not interested in that as an issue.   Those who made it a big issue are already in Obama's camp, so with that Obama was preaching to the choir.

Most people tuned in to hear the candidates on the economy, health care, issues they really are concerned about.    There Hillary shined, and I would imagine she convinced a lot of late undecideds as well.

by georgep 2008-02-02 07:04PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.

I think Hillary is not only doing better in the polls and the size of her very recent crowds because of her FANTASTIC debate performance, but also because of Bill Clinton keeping his big mouth shut and letting Hillary just be herself!!

Don't get me wrong; I love Bill, but this is HER chance to make history, not his.

She is one hell of a fine lady, and 8 plus million Americans saw that on CNN at that debate.

I simply adore her! She will be such a wonderful leader for this great nation!

by vermillion 2008-02-02 07:37PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.Not so FAST

CLINTON, OBAMA RUN CLOSE(zOGBY tRACKING POLL)

Both parties have staged tight, seesawing battles for the nominations for November's presidential election. Clinton, the New York senator, and Obama split the first four Democratic contests -- Obama won Iowa and South Carolina, while Clinton won New Hampshire and Nevada.

In California, the poll found Obama led Clinton by 45 percent to 41 percent, with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. Clinton held statistically insignificant 1-point leads on Obama in New Jersey and Missouri, well within the margin of error of 3.4 percentage points in both surveys.

Both candidates have established a strong base of support and are holding on to it ahead of Tuesday's voting, the poll found. Clinton leads among women, Hispanics and elderly voters. Obama leads among blacks, men and young voters.

"They are running very close, essentially evenly split, among most of the rest of the sub-groups," Zogby said. "It is a very tight, very contested race on almost every level."

by BDM 2008-02-02 09:00PM | 0 recs
Re: The debate may have won it for her.
Insteresting article in NY Times about Obama having lied in Iowa about having passed piece of legislation (which never passed and which he had to rewrite over and over to make it less threatening to Republicans and to some of his major campaign contributors).
The title is Nuclear Leaks and Response Tested Obama in Senate
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/03/us/pol itics/03exelon.html?_r=1&ex=13597812 00&en=dc32a822488c8617&ei=5088&a mp;partner=msnbcpolitics&emc=rss& ;oref=slogin
by LovingIT 2008-02-03 03:06AM | 0 recs

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