This is the decisive moment in this campaign. Either this mini-surge (which has been going on in the tracking polls for three days, so is undeniably real) keeps going or it doesn't. Hillary needs to be able to say that she holds a clear lead in the national polls for the superdelegates to come to her side. Just winning the popular vote in the primaries and caucuses (which she can also do) won't be enough, imo.

If the election were held today (and yes, we know it won't be), Democratic contender Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton would get 51% of the vote to Republican candidate Sen. John McCain's 46%, the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll estimates. In a match-up between Democratic Sen. Barack Obama and McCain, Obama comes out ahead 49%-47%.

Both Democrats have overtaken McCain since the last USA TODAY/Gallup survey. In that Feb. 21-24 poll, McCain led Clinton 50%-46% and he led Obama 48%-47%.

Gallup surveyed 685 "likely" voters across the nation from Friday through Sunday. It says the margin of error on each result is +/- 4 percentage points. That means neither Clinton nor Obama's lead in the new poll is "outside" that margin. Clinton's support could be as low as 47% (because 51-4=47) and McCain's could be as high as 50% (because 46+4=50).

Keep in mind that polls are snapshots of current public opinion, not forecasts of what will happen in November

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/200 8/03/usa-todaygallup.html?loc=interstiti alskip

Some of this could be timing of the week.  Still, maybe he has lost a few percent.  If the gap is two or three points higher over the next two days, then we may have some indications of a real trend.

It really is too early to tell if this is a major shift or not much of anything.  Rasmussen still has Obama up.

But it would be surprising if there wasn't some impact in the polls.  Whether it is maintained is another story.

MAY is the operative word.

Considering the weekend Obama has had, this is probably good news.

I think this will go up a little more due to the fact that she has shown more leadership this morning on the economy .

Clinton on Economy: 'We Are In The Soup'
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/ 2008/03/clinton-on-econ.html

how is Obama reacting ? All I can see from the headlines is he is still fighting to not let the voters in Fla. & Mich.  vote .. throwing up obstacle after obstacle ..

If you people think that superdelegates are now going to flock to Hillary, you better be kidding yourselves.  With her topping the ticket, ads like this one, http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanma rtin/0308/The_ad_that_will_launch_a_thou sand_imitations_and_parodies.html, will be played in all of their districts and they will be out of a job.  

We have a real chance to pick up this district in Louisiana in a May special election, but with Hillary around you can say goodbye to it.  Thanks Hillary.  I hope you enjoy wrecking the party just as your husband did in the 1990's.  

I support Hillary Clinton, but do we really need a new diary every time one candidate overtakes the other in the polls?

I'm curious why you (and others) use "BHO" to identify Obama.  HRC makes sense...Hillary used to go by "Hillary Rodham Clinton."

I'm not aware of Obama having gone by "Barack Hussein Obama," so it strikes me that "BO" might make more sense.  Unless you have some other point you're trying to make?  

Obama maybe behind today, but give it a week and he will be back up again. Running daily poll commentary is a waste of time.

Thank God the real winner is coming up
When are American voters going to wake up. This Obama and his wife belonged to a black separatist church for 20 years and every move he''s made in the Senate has been carefully calculated to make him appear to be what he''s not. What can we expect from voters who went crazy over Bush. All you listen to are the charming speeches and you never do any research to see what''s behind the smiling face and the empty suit. Obama''s church is committed to Africa and Obama''s biggest sponsor, Oprah, is committed to Africa and Obama''s big accomplishment in the Senate is the Global War on Poverty Act which is mainly for the benefit of Africa. When our men come home from Iraq --- guess where he''s sending them. To Africa. Obama is not interested in the American People. He will direct our resources to Africa to further his interests and Oprah''s interests and to fulfill the wishes of his father who was born in Kenya. We have 1 million Iraqi refugees here as a result of the Iraq War. You can expect to be supporting another 1 million African refugees while our American soldiers are dying in Africa and thousands of American families are mourning and thousands of American children are left without fathers. Wake up and find out who you are voting for before you pull that lever or press that button.
If the media had done their jobs early on and had pressed Obama on issues and dug up dirt like they did the other candidates - this would all be over with right now. A race hate monger would not be able to boast his success in the past primaries if all this had been known to the voting public a few months ago. I guess better late than never????

It is awful convenient to say he''s been a consistant church goer but he''s been "absent" when this madman of a preacher made his anti American remarks from the pulpit????? Seems awfully suspicious. Forget the remarks on race - I''m talking about remarks against AMERICA which includes everyone. Wake up before it''s too late. It''s not too late to make sure he doesn''t get the Democratic nomination.

AND - What are they ever going to do about Florida & Michigan???? Mr. Dean needs his *ss ran off. He should have prepared for a worse case scenario. Something definitely needs to be done to include all the states.
Obama also said for the first time that his private real estate transactions with Rezko were not simply mistakes of judgment because Rezko was under grand jury investigation at the time of their 2005 and 2006 dealings. In addition, he said, "The mistake was he had been a contributor and somebody involved in politics."

The Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Obama's pastor for the last 20 years at the Trinity United Church of Christ on Chicago's south side, has a long history of "inflammatory rhetoric," "The government gives them the drugs, builds bigger prisons, passes a three-strike law and then wants us to sing 'God Bless America.' No, no, no, God damn America, that's in the Bible for killing innocent people," he said in a 2003 sermon. "God damn America "Here is his pastor of 20 years preaching anti-American, racial hatred, anti-seminitc, revenge-seeking language. That candidate wouldn't last 15 minutes! (Neither should this one.) No wonder Michelle Obama felt so comfortable saying she finally has a reason to be proud of her country! Bet she hangs on every word her Pastor says! The hatred he spews toward whites is about as bad what the KKK is noted for spewing toward blacks. Neither has any place in this country. Obama has been going to this church for 20 years, listening to this subversive, anti-American crap and continues to go to the church and call this man his spiritual advisor. Why is the media not going after Obama and asking him why he didn't leave this anti-American's flock? How can someone be President of the United States when for the past twenty years he has been going to an "I Hate America" lecture every Sunday. I want a President who is committed to America 100%. Obama himself stated that he did support the committment to Africa. Just think of how "God Damn America" will be played over and over and over again in Republican ads. The Democratic party needs to wake up and realize that we're being sold a bill of goods where Obama is concerned. What has the man accomplished during his short time in the U.S. Senate?The Rev. Jeremiah Wright's anti-American, hate speech sealed the deal for me and millions of other citizens of this Great nation. Wakeup American we do not need to have three mistakes in row. This Guy singing for 20 years "God Damn America" and now some people want to give him the honor to be president.
To insult our country and to damn our country, while this man enjoys the very blanket of freedom that I (being military) provide, is absolutely unforgivable. I would NEVER vote for Obama. Not even for the president of the PTA. I HOPE THE SUPERDELEGATES OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY TAKE A GOOD HARD LOOK AT THIS BEFORE THEY MAKE THE DECISION TO GIVE THE NOMINATION TO SOMEONE WHO SEEMS TO BE LACKING IN GOOD JUDGEMENT WHERE HE RECEIVES HIS SPIRTUAL GUIDANCE