Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

Last Monday John Edwards appeared on the Ed Schultz Show at a town hall meeting in Chapel Hill, N.C. I've never been much of a fan of Ed Schultz, but that's a whole different story. Back in 2004, we had to witness what I call "Kerry Speak". Kerry became a victim of run on sentences and over explaining issues to death. I do not think he was able to get his point across clearly and concisely, whether the subject was Iraq or health care. The thing is, I really like Kerry and I think he would have made a fantastic President, he just came off wrong.  

This is one of the big differences between Edwards and Kerry. Edwards can explain complicated policy proposals with ease. Edwards can talk about his bold, progressive policy proposals without coming off as a socialist. He can talk about Universal Health Care without putting people off. He can talk about policies to help the urban and rural poor without sounding like he's all about big government. I think he can do this because of his ability to connect with working Americans. He doesn't over explain his ideas and he doesn't gloss things over with fancy adjectives. He tells it like it is, simply and plainly.

I've been thinking about this since the 2006 elections. People like Jon Tester got elected in red Montana because he connected with folks on dinner table issues. Tester often talked about the rural poor and affordable health care. The rural folks are people the Democrats have largely ignored the past couple elections. This is where many Democrats can connect with moderate Republicans on domestic issues. Tester wasn't complicated or sleek, he was straight forward and plain spoken. Tester's brand of populism in the rural mountain west won him his seat and helped give the majority of the Senate to the Democrats.

Back to Edwards on the Ed Schultz show, it's no secret on the blogs that I support Edwards, so I found myself surprised at how much I loved this appearance. I thought it was one of the best appearances I had ever heard from a politician. His answers were to the point, and he nailed every single one of them. His wife did amazingly well, which is always expected, she is quick on her feet and extremely witty. Ed asked Edwards about his Universal Health Care plan and here's what Edwards said:

John: I'll give you a very short version. What I'd do is require employers to cover their employees or pay into a fund. We'd set up healthcare markets across the country - consumers can choose either a private plan or a government plan and there would be a government plan in there. We subsidize healthcare costs to just under 100k of income. We cover the cracks in the healthcare system. Complete mental health parity. Mental health treated the same as physical health. Chronic care, preventative care, long-term care all covered. We'd bring down the cost of the care for the entire system through preventative care from birth to death. Healthier. The mandated use of technology, lowered administrative costs, mandated use of electronic record keeping. If you have your healthcare in one of these markets you can take it with you so you are not locked in to a particular job. We outlaw pre-existing conditions; there will be no such thing as pre-existing conditions....And by law every man, woman and child has to be covered. The cost is 90 to 120 billion dollars a year paid for by getting rid of Bush's tax cuts for those who make over 200k a year.

I swear he said it without hesitating at all and said it in less then thirty seconds. It was really awesome, and as someone who doesn't know the ins and outs of health care, I understood everything he said. Here's what Elizabeth said when Ed asked her if John was a good attorney:

Elizabeth: He did some of that, he...I'll tell you what was really great about John as an attorney. What he did is he took really complex cases, this ability is great in a politician too, takes a really complex set of facts and explains them to a jury in a very plain way so that all these people from different educational backgrounds can understand what he is saying. And then he moves them to a position they ought, to where he thinks they ought to be on this complex issue. Now if you talk down to them they'd know it. If he said something that isn't true the other side is going to call him on it. So he had to be completely truthful but speak plainly about complex issues and move people on them. That's exactly the kind of ability we are lacking right now in the White House.

This is a big part of the reason I think Edwards can seal the deal in the general election. He can talk plainly and people will listen to him with ease He can propose his progressive policies and connect to people's current struggles.

Tags: 2008 Preisdential election, Ed Schultz, John Edwards, John Kerry, universal health care (all tags)

Comments

120 Comments

Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

If Hillary can be knocked down a notch, it will be fun to watch.

by TarHeel 2007-04-25 03:30PM | 0 recs
Yes! And anchor for Edwards News pieces.

There was a complaint about Edwards diaries with few words and little substance getting onto the reclist, hogging the limited number of reclist slots.

Since this diary is already on the reclist, this would be a good place to insert those "Edwards News" pieces that that previous diary was complaining about.

by BruceMcF 2007-04-26 05:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

Edwards is a good communicator. He has to get past Obama to have a shot.

by robliberal 2007-04-25 03:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

Both Edwards and Obama are good communicators, they both are charasmatic and inspire change. If Edwards wins Iowa then my bets are on him to win the whole thing. Actually, whoever wins Iowa will have so mcuh mojo going in to the next few primaries they'll be hard to beat.

by Sarah Lane 2007-04-25 04:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

Maybe... I still think this primary is going to defy general convention.  I'm not banking on the Iowa winner to take the whole thing, UNLESS the winner is the perceived front runner at the time.

by yitbos96bb 2007-04-25 05:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

If Hillary wins Iowa, she'll be the inevitable candidate she looked like a few months ago; she'll be the nominee.  If Barack wins, he'll be the candidate that beat the odds, and he'll go on to be the nominee.  If Edwards wins, it'll be his only shot at possibly gaining enough ground in New Hampshire to come at least as a close second, and then fight it out in Michigan and South Carolina.

by jallen 2007-04-25 06:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

Agreeable prediction IF the Iowa caucus was tomorrow. I find it hard to imagine the polls not changing dramatically over the course of the next 8 months.

by LandStander 2007-04-25 07:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

Please, Obama isn't a great communicator.  He is a great inspirational/motivational speaker.  To communicate, one has to have a message.  To inspire, one simply needs a dream, pipe or otherwise.

by dkmich 2007-04-26 01:52AM | 0 recs
Completely Disagree

Having met him twice and heard him speak 4 times

by faithfull 2007-04-26 06:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Completely Disagree

He inspires you.  Anything else?

by dkmich 2007-04-27 02:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

That is a good point to make. Obama is a great speaker and has charisma but so far it does not translate into voters feeling comfortable he can lead.

by robliberal 2007-04-26 08:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

"does not translate..."

Big statement with no analysis, no facts.  Perhaps you are stating a personal opinion?

The guy is breaking all historic records for turn-out at his events.  Fundraising in a way that almost none of the pundits thought was possible.  Doesn't this suggest that people are eager to follow him?

by upper left 2007-04-26 11:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

Jerry Falwell and the mega churches turn out big numbers, too.  I absolutely agree he has devout followers, and he captivates them.  What he doesn't do, IMO, is present a message that would make me want him to be our President when we are in a huge mess.  He is kumbaya - more of the same.  We don't need more of Reagan because that is what we have had to some degree or another for the last 30 years.  I want FDR back in charge.  If I could channel him, I would.  

by dkmich 2007-04-27 02:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

Snark.  

You may not like Obama's message, but he definitely has one.  Messages are not synonomous with ten point plans on every concievable public policy issue.

In fact, most voters, outside of about 10% of the die-hards on each end of the political spectrum, know little about the specific policy stands of the candidates.  Candidates are "brands" and voters choose a brand primarily based on values, judgement, and character, more than experience and policy.  

The obsession of progressive political junkies with demanding that our candidate have perfectly PC positions on every issue is highly destructive.  It is a significant part of why Dems have been losing for a generation.

The smug condecension implied in your post is both disrespectful and wrong-headed.

by upper left 2007-04-26 11:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

You may want PC, not me.  Obama is the PC guy - why can't we all get along...  I want somebody who will kick ass (take risks) and create dramatic change in this country's direction.  That isn't Obama.  

by dkmich 2007-04-27 02:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

Edwards is currently slightly ahead in Iowa.  Winning Iowa would not be a big surprise, given the polling that shows him slightly ahead.  So, if Edwards does NOT win in Iowa (the one hope state for him,) he is more than likely finished, as that would be the surprise there.

Edwards is far behind in all aspects, nationally, aggregate state polling, the money race.  If things stay aligned largely as they have been with Edwards running third by double-digit defitics to the leader, even an Iowa win won't do him much good.   Sure, Iowa is an absolute must for Edwards, but unless the other states show him a dramatic increase in support it won't be enough to shake up the race appreciably.  Lose in Iowa, and it will be almost impossible for him to save the campaign, IMHO.  

by georgep 2007-04-26 06:25AM | 0 recs
I love coming

to My DD, cause everytime I do, someone posts an Edwards-is-in-trouble comment. (A month ago there were several Edwards-is-done comments.) Let's see now...

- steadily rising in national polls

  • leading in Iowa
  • strong second in New Hampshire
  • strong with unions, which will help in everywhere, including Nevada
  • leading on the issues
  • running the most progressive campaign
  • been though it before, so temperment, stamina not in doubt
  • developing an alarming knack for candor

Shit, if this trouble, I hate to see success.

by david mizner 2007-04-26 07:21AM | 0 recs
Re: I love coming

and i love reading MYDD cause every time i do i see some post from a deluded edwards supporter!!!!!!!

if only there was some truth to them..if only edwards weren't running a distant third.. if only he was actually getting some press coverage..if only he WASN'T running a distant third..if only the last time edwards got any national attention was over his $400 hair cuts..

if only.

by serge in dc 2007-04-26 07:25AM | 0 recs
Re: I love coming

if only his fundraising wasn't lagging far behind hillary and obama

i only

by serge in dc 2007-04-26 07:26AM | 0 recs
Re: I love coming

You seem to be under the impression that the Feb 5 primaries are coming up in a month or two.

I expect Obama to overtake Clinton in the national polling sometime this year, and when that happens the national media narrative will change.

Of course, the national polling only really matters at this point in terms of how it affects the national media narrative. And when Obama overtakes Hillary, Edwards will also be at a higher position in the national polling than he is today, and the two media narratives will be Obama as front runner and Edwards threatening to overtake Hillary.

by BruceMcF 2007-04-26 07:39AM | 0 recs
Re: I love coming

I see it just the opposite. If Obama overtakes Clinton that is even a worst scenario for Edwards. Edwards needs for Obama to implode for him to have a shot at Clinton. It does not help Edwards any at all for Clinton and Obama and swap the 1st and 2nd positions it just leaves him still in 3rd.

by robliberal 2007-04-26 08:10AM | 0 recs
Re: I love coming

Obama and Edwards take different voters away from Clinton, not each other. Obama's presence in the race, especially a leading position, is more beneficial to Edwards than a race without Obama, at least at this stage of the race.

by clarkent 2007-04-26 08:27AM | 0 recs
Re: I love coming

We will soon see but I think if the media makes it a two person race between Clinton and Obama that will make it much more difficult for Edwards to get out of the teens and single digits in the state polls. The press will make this a two person race as quickly as they can.

by robliberal 2007-04-26 08:38AM | 0 recs
Re: I love coming

I think you are forgetting that the national media are lazy and that a horse race narrative is the easiest narrative to construct. If Edwards is "gaining ground" and Hillary is "losing ground" going into the first turn, that will shift the focus to the comparison between Edwards and Hillary for those soft Hillary supporters who ... evidently because they are not the ones who shifted to Obama ... are not as taken with Obama.

If they have a choice between protraying it in static terms and portraying it in relative terms, they'll pick relative terms. It makes for sexier sounding headlines and programming teasers without being any more work.

And the magic of decimal places will also kick in ... Edwards will continue to attract uncommitted Democrats, so he will be coming into the low twenties from below when Hillary is coming into the high twenties from above.

by BruceMcF 2007-04-26 08:30AM | 0 recs
Re: I love coming

There's nothing deluded about what the above poster said. He said he's leading in Iowa, the polls averaged out show Edwards leading Hillary by 6 points, and leading Obama there by more then 10. The polls in NH are much closer but Edwards is in second place there. Edwards is running a fiscally responsible campaign, he's running a progressive campaign and has layed out all his proposals for people to criticize or praise. How is his post deluded? It's the truth.

by Sarah Lane 2007-04-26 08:07AM | 0 recs
Re: I love coming

I think it's pure irony.

Five months ago, Edwards couldn't get arrested let alone any support from the netroots. All we heard was Clark, Feingold, and oh yes, Clark. Then it was Gore. The things said about Edwards was: 1. His war vote; 2. His "inexperience;" 3. "He couldn't carry his own state." Now he's the netroot's darling because they say that Hillary isn't "electable" or Obama "lacks experience."

Wow! What a difference five months and some policy ititiatives make.

by Nedsdag 2007-04-26 09:24AM | 0 recs
Yeah, it's

amazing what can happen to a candidate's support in the netroots when a candidate, uh, does things the netroots likes.

by david mizner 2007-04-26 10:33AM | 0 recs
I agree...

I can't imagine that the Edwards camp isn't thrilled with their current position.  Nobody has a straight shot at the nomination...

by rashomon 2007-04-26 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Rality Check

Edwards got a nice bump out of the coverage around Elizabeth.  He has developed some momentum on the left at places like MyDD.  It remains to be seen whether he has consolidated the gains he made last month.  The polls are up and down and no clear trend has emerged.

The fact that he has been saying things that you and others on the net agree with does not mean that he is poised for inauguration.  Politics is about perception, position, and image more than it is about white papers.  Many on the left don't seem to understand this.  

I think Edwards is a great guy, and he has a shot.  I may even vote for him, although at this point I lean towards Obama.  The point is that you need to look at the big picture.  There is probably only room for one un-Hillary in the race.  Right now I would give Obama the edge in money, enthusiasm, and positioning.  Edwards has to show that he has a better chance of stopping HRC than Obama.  The jury is still out.

by upper left 2007-04-26 11:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Rality Check

It seems to be that Hillary's numbers are starting to drop, Obama's staying pretty stagnant in 2nd place and Edwards is climbing up the polls, slowly but surely. I think there is a chance that Edwards and Obama will both pass Hillary in some of the early states.

by Sarah Lane 2007-04-26 02:22PM | 0 recs
That depends on whether ...

... Hillary can hold onto a plateau, or whether she continues her slide. If both Obama and Edwards pass Hillary, then this could be a long campaign, upsetting all the conventional wisdom.

by BruceMcF 2007-04-26 05:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Wishful thinking I fear...

I don't see HRC completely imploding.  She has money, she has organization, she has a lot of institutional support among the Dem establishment, and she has a strong base among women and a lot of good will in the African American community.  

I think a much more likely scenario is a gradual loss of altitude as more Dems question  her likability and her electability.  I expect Obama to be ahead of her in most of the national polls by Labor Day.

I think a lot of Edwards supporters underestimate the difficulty of being the second insurgent in a race that already has an insurgent, Obama.  I think JE is between a rock and a hard spot.  His natural base is with working class, older Dems, and rural voters, the more he tries to ramp up support on the left, the more difficult it will be for him to hang on to these more moderate supporters.  I am not saying it is impossible, I just think it is low odds.

by upper left 2007-04-26 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Wishful thinking I fear...

Of course, I did not say that Hillary would completely implode.

However, on the core thesis:

I think JE is between a rock and a hard spot.  His natural base is with working class, older Dems, and rural voters, the more he tries to ramp up support on the left, the more difficult it will be for him to hang on to these more moderate supporters.
... since a large part of his appeal to the left is offering programs that take bold, unapologetic steps to help people trampled by globalization, like working class, older Dems, and rural voters, he's got a better shot at building that coalition than anybody in a good long while.

Indeed, those are precisely the type of Clinton supporters where I would expect that he will be making the best inroads as Obama continues to shake the tree.

by BruceMcF 2007-04-26 12:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Wishful thinking I fear...

I wouldn't argue with your point, but the anti-war, lefty blogger crowd strikes me as very unwilling to give their chosen candidate much room to manuever.  Some of the stands that are likely to please the blogosphere are going to raise some eyebrows among the more conservative older and rural voters.  Edwards has to walk a fine line without appearing to calcualate ala HRC. It isn't going to be easy.

You didn't adress my other point about JE being the second outsider, insurgent candidate.  I question if there are enough voters in this category to go around. What do you think?

by upper left 2007-04-26 01:48PM | 0 recs
I don't think they are the same insurgencies ...

... and I kind of agree with the drift of Chris Bowers thinking that at this stage, they simply are not really chasing the same voters at this point in time, so they both can grow.

If they were both heavily dependent on mainstream media coverage, that would be a limiting resource, but Edwards isn't heavily dependent on mainstream media coverage at this stage in his campaign.

Obama's co-sponsorship (together with Hillary) of a pro-nuclear, pro-big coal global warming bill that falls short on the scientific consensus target for carbon reduction may hurt him among Gore supporters looking for a candidate ... for example, some of those 6% of black voters in the PEW poll that favor Gore would be real handy in cracking into double digits among black voters.

by BruceMcF 2007-04-26 07:40PM | 0 recs
Re: An Alternate Framework....

I am going to repost a comment I made, in another thread, in response to Chris's argument that Obama and Edwards are going after different voters. I was disappointed at how little response I got to this comment, because I think it tries to make an important point:

"Each of the big three (HRC, JE, BO) pull voters at higher rates from certain demographic and ideological sub-sets from within the overall pool of voters. Clinton is perceived as more centrist, but she pulls a disproportionately high number of young women and a high number of African Americans.  Obama does well with African Americans, but also well with highly educated whites.  Edwards is gaining strength among lefty netrooters, but his real base is with older voters and rural whites.

Under this analysis each of the big three are fighting over voters in different smaller subsets.  In some subset the competition is primarily Clinton-Obama (African Americans), in others it is Clinton-Edwards (white working class) in others it is a three way fight (white professionals). The success rate of each candidate varies depending on how well their "brand" lines up with each demographic and ideological group.  

Let me use Edwards as an example.  Edwards is working very hard to build support on the left.  However, his natural base, because his brand is as a Southern, white male from a working class background, is with white working class and rural voters, who are as a group more ideologically conservative.  In the internals of a poll I looked at last week (sorry I can't remember the poll) Edwards voters were much less likely than Obama or Clinton voters to support a cut off of funds for the war.

This is counterintuitive, because you would think JE's voters would be more ideologically left because he is trying to position himself on the left.  The reality is just the opposite, because voters are not responding to JE policy position and ideological positioning, they are responding to his image and biography.  This is true generally, a relatively high percentage of voters respond more to biography, character, and image than ideological position.

The same is true for Obama.  He is doing well with African American voters, but because of his position on the war and his brand image, he is doing very well among college educated whites.  I lean towards Obama for a variety of reasons, but my biggest concern about Obama is whether he can appeal successfully to the white working class.  We will see.

Bottom Line: I think it is a real mistake to think that Clinton and Obama are going after one set of voters and Edwards after another. It is more about "brand" than about ideology or policy.  Lefties, who tend to be policy freaks and want a ten point plan for everything, need to be reminded that voters make decisions based on values, judgement, and character more than policy. This is why I think the netroots obsession with politically correct policy positions is extremely counterproductive."

by upper left 2007-04-27 07:39AM | 0 recs
One of the striking features of the PEW crosstabs

... is that Edwards is very stable across liberal, moderate and conservative.

I think its important to understand where his rising tide of white papers fits into this.

He does not appeal to liberals (most likely self-described progressives) by saying, "these are my ideals, and I will fight for them". He appeals to progressives by saying, "here is a serious problem that needs fixing, and here is how I will fix it".

But the narrative framework for "this problem should removed" is very much in terms of, "America is better than that, we are better than that", and "that does not represent the real face of America".

And that is a very elastic framework, since it can appeal to people even further out on the leftwing than myself, who can tell themselves, "sure are, those radical right wing crazies don't really represent American ideals" ... through to moderates, "we need to get a consensus together to fix these problems, those are very real problems", to a more conservative, "America used to be a country that had a can-do attitude, and we are letting that slip away".

The problem in that "problems to be fixed" approach is if the proposals start to sound like a laundry list. The only way to really avoid that is to provide a genuine narrative that takes you from one main policy area to another ... and Edwards can do that.

When that is built on top of a frame of a Working America, its got some coalition building potential.

Of course, Hillary will be fighting tooth and nail behind the scenes to avoid an AFL-CIO endorsement of Edwards, which could provide a substantial opportunity to make substantial inroads in her blue collar support.

by BruceMcF 2007-04-27 08:51AM | 0 recs
Re: It is not about policy

Regarding your comment about the global warming initiative, I think you are making the same mistake that many in the liberal blogisphere make:  you suggest that people primarily make voting decisions based on policy positions.  As I pointed out in my post above, I think this is fundamentally wrong.  Voting is about "brand", brand is created by frames,  and by general impressions about a candidates values, judgement, and character.  I doubt that more than 10% of voters could even tell you the broad outlines of the candidates' policy positions at this point.

by upper left 2007-04-27 07:48AM | 0 recs
Yeah, that's why I normally call it by name.

Obama's co-sponsorship, along with Hillary, of the McCain-Lieberman global warming bill has more rhetorical punch than Obama's co-sponsorship of a bad bill with nuclear subsidies and loopholes.

But then the branding goes with the territory ... Gore supporters know who their friends (if not allies) are in Congress, and its their enemies who will be sponsoring a bad bill with nuclear subsidies and loopholes.

by BruceMcF 2007-04-27 08:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Yeah, that's why I normally call it by name.

Look, I am happy to have a converstaion with you, but you didn't respond to my central argument that PC, policy obsession is the wrong way to think about politics.  General elections are decided by the third of voters in the middle, who not only do not know about the details of proposed legislation, most don't have a very coherent ideology of any kind.  

My basic response to your argument is, "who cares?"  The details of a complex piece of proposed legislation have nothing to do with who would be the strongest nominee for our party, and little to do with how they will actually govern if elected.

by upper left 2007-04-28 07:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Yeah, that's why I normally call it by name.

On this point:

The details of a complex piece of proposed legislation have nothing to do with who would be the strongest nominee for our party

I agree, but it is entirely beside the point for the discussion at hand. In the effort of attempting to win the election and then be able to go on and gain sufficient early policy successes to go into the first midterm election in strong shape ... able to point with pride to what are broadly seen as accomplishments, and point to addition reasons to vote for Congressmen and Senators that will help push through what the Republican opposition have been able to stymie ... the purpose of a reform candidate going into the campaign with specific detailed policies they want to accomplish is the political leverage they gain for those policies when they win election.

Quite obviously viewing detailed policies as part of the strategy for gaining election has got it backwards. The policies are not to support the win, the win is to support the policies.

Specific policies have the opportunity to have more influence in the early stages of a primary fight, if they bring out favorable reviews from people who are effective opinion leaders, and if they help to mobilize dedicated grass roots supporters. However, it is just one dimension of primary campaign strategy, and I don't think anybody could reasonably suggest that anyone could gain the nomination based on that strategy alone.

The details of a complex piece of proposed legislation have nothing to do with who would be the strongest nominee for our party, and little to do with how they will actually govern if elected.

And this, of course, has nothing to do with the remark I made regarding Obama and Clinton co-sponsoring McCain-Lieberman when there is an available alternative that is preferred by most or all of the main environmental lobby groups.

The importance of that for how they will govern is that they are willing to ignore the NRDC etc. in order to pander to the nuclear and coal lobbies. That gives substantial reason to expect that the actual global warming policy that they pursue will include larger than necessary doses of greenwashing.

However, more generally, the discussion is not about which candidate for the nomination had the best prospects in the general election, the discussion is coming off the "I don't think they are the same insurgencies ..." which is about the stage of the primary race in the summer ahead of us.

I found the remark:

Regarding your comment about the global warming initiative, I think you are making the same mistake that many in the liberal blogisphere make: you suggest that people primarily make voting decisions based on policy positions.
interesting in the first place precisely because of the misperception of what I said.

by BruceMcF 2007-04-28 09:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

I've been making the same point in comments at dKos. Obama supporters kept knocking Edwards as a Kerry-type candidate, saying that the fact that he initially supported the war and now opposes it would make him vulnerable to charges of flip-flopping. But Kerry's problem in 2004 was that he had trouble concisely articulating his position on Iraq (and everything else, for that matter), not that his position on the war evolved. Edwards doesn't have that problem at all.

by clarkent 2007-04-25 03:51PM | 0 recs
I'm not sure I agree with that completely.

While Edwards has given a strong position currently on Iraq, he needs to be prepared to articulate exactly WHY he was wrong on Iraq.  It's not so much that he's evolved, because that's not as big of a deal.

He just needs to be prepared to explain in detail why...and not just with the "we were all misled by the evidence" line.  I don't think he'll be able to get away with "I was wrong" as the only answer forever.  The debates will be interesting on this point.

by rashomon 2007-04-25 03:58PM | 0 recs
Maybe a better way to say this...

the question for Edwards is..."If you believe now your vote in 2002 was a mistake, what did you learn from that mistake and how would that apply to your Presidency?"

The key element is judgment.  If you were wrong, explain what you've learned that would allow you to make a better call if you were President.

by rashomon 2007-04-25 04:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Maybe a better way to say this...

That's a good, fair question.

by clarkent 2007-04-25 04:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Maybe a better way to say this...
His argument is that he was wrong to trust Bush.
And trusting Bush to have the authority to do anything was a mistake.
by TarHeel 2007-04-25 04:15PM | 0 recs
That's true...

but I still think it would be a better answer if Edwards could tie it to decisions he might make as President.

by rashomon 2007-04-25 04:30PM | 0 recs
Re: That's true...

I've seen him answer something similar on Iran that shows me he understands the lessons learned from Iraq:

what happens if America were to militarily strike Iran? Well you take this unstable, radical leader, and you make him a hero -- that's the first thing that'll happen. The Iranian people will rally around him. The second thing that will happen is they will retaliate. And they have certainly some potential for retaliating here in the United States through some of these terrorist organizations they're close to, but we've got over a hundred thousand people right next door. And most people believe that they have an infrastructure for retaliation inside Iraq. So, that's the second thing that'll happen. And the third thing is there are a lot of analysts who believe that an air strike or a missile strike is not enough to be successful. To be successful we'd actually have to have troops on the ground, and where in the world would they come from?

by clarkent 2007-04-25 04:39PM | 0 recs
Thats a good point

I think he's been actively trying to do that. You see a lot of it in his plan for Darfur and international poverty, showing alternative ways the US can lead than how Bush is leading.

by okamichan13 2007-04-25 06:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Maybe a better way to say this...

Wow, just noticed lovingj is here now...

oboy, just what we need

by okamichan13 2007-04-25 07:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Maybe a better way to say this...

Good question.  There is nothing wrong with changing your mind but you do have to be prepared to answer for past actions/decisions.

by John Mills 2007-04-25 08:43PM | 0 recs
Re: I'm not sure I agree with that completely.

I think it's going to be a bigger hurdle for Edwards in the primaries rather then the general election. On the other hand, most caucus goer's are very informed politically and I think it's more important to them to know what plan Edwards has for getting us out of Iraq. If he's up against a guy like McCain in the general, Edwards looks like a saint when it comes to Iraq. Plus, the large majority of Americans were for the war in the beginning, which is why I think they'll accept Edwards admitting voting for it was a mistake.

by Sarah Lane 2007-04-25 04:18PM | 0 recs
Re: I'm not sure I agree with that completely.

But 2004 was a very different time. Opposition to the war was just warming up. Remember, before the war began the public was very much for it. Most people agreed with Edwards then, and most people agree with him now.

Kerry was in the unfortunate position of defending a position (against the war) that was still lukewarm with the public. He had a tougher sell.

by LandStander 2007-04-25 07:55PM | 0 recs
Re: I'm not sure I agree with that completely.

yes he - edwards- would have had to exercise leadership back in 2003 / 2004..

by serge in dc 2007-04-26 04:28AM | 0 recs
Wondering

How do you reconcile in your mind that great leaders occasionally lead poorly?

For example, FDR was one of our greatest leaders.  But he also is remembered for making one of the poorest presidential decisions ever - interning thousands of innocent American citizens based solely on their ethnicity.

How do you reconcile that a person can have the intelligence and decency to be a great president, yet can sometimes make very poor decisions?

Can one person have the capacity both to accomplish great things - and also to make great errors of judgment?

History seems to indicate the answer is yes.

I believe John Edwards has the capacity to be a great president - which I suppose means that, while I recognize he isn't immune from making poor decisions (like any other leader), I believe it is likely that history would remember him more for his great accomplishments as president than for his errors of judgment.

by Rob in Vermont 2007-04-26 07:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Wondering

where are these great edwards leadership decisions???

tell me we aren't comparing him to FDR now!

by serge in dc 2007-04-26 07:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Wondering

I was trying to engage you in a philosophical discussion, but I guess that doesn't interest you.

I could compare Sen. Edwards to Pres. Roosevelt in terms of their rhetorical style, in terms of their tendency to focus on people at the bottom, and at the very bottom, of the economic ladder.

Of course, it would be apples and oranges to  compare the leadership accomplishments of someone who is now running for president to someone who was our longest-serving president.

But history may one day have the opportunity to judge an Edwards presidency.  As you can gather from my previous comment, I am optimistic that history would judge his presidency very well.

Certainly a good part of being able to accomplish great things is to set your sights high.  Edwards is doing so.  

by Rob in Vermont 2007-04-26 11:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Wondering

well i appreciate your post..

but while great leaders often make mistakes i don't think great leaders make a mistake on the biggest decision to come before them in their entire political career..

by serge in dc 2007-04-26 01:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Wondering
Serge, I hope that if he is elected, John Edwards is the greatest president we have ever had.  I don't really believe that would be possible, though.
If Barack is elected, I hope all the good things his supporters say about him are true.  I hope he would be the greatest president we've ever had.  Not that I think that's possible.
If Hillary is, well, you get the idea.
by jallen 2007-04-26 01:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Wondering

Bush decided to cut off the inspection process and invade Iraq. That was indeed a terrible, horrible decision.  This was not John Edwards's nor any other Democrat's decision.  It was Bush's.

The decision you are referring to was the decision Edwards made not to align himself with the two dozen or so Democrats in the Senate, and the one Independent, who didn't trust Bush's decisionmaking skills. Their skepticism was proved right. His faith was proved wrong, but even if he had voted with the skeptics, it would not have made a difference in the outcome.  The mood of the country, and of many Democrats, at that time, was not to filibuster the president on this issue. The country wanted the inspectors back in Iraq, and that is what the AUMF was supposed to do.  And it did. It worked.  The inspectors got back in, after years of not being allowed in. This was a good accomplishment. But it wasn't good enough for Bush, obviously.

My senators, Leahy and Jeffords, both voted the right way, but that didn't make any difference either.

by Rob in Vermont 2007-04-26 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Wondering

nonesense..

i knew that bush was talking hooey..

giving him the authority which he asked for based on lies (we all saw them with colin powell embarassing himself at the UN, etc.) was a mistake

worse yet edwards took a long time to "reflect" on his mistake..now that he's out of the senate and useless suddenly he's the man with the plan

and how about the fact that edwards cosponsored a bill very much like the one that passed with joe lieberman?

we know what happened so lets not now pretend otherwise because we like him: he wanted to appear tough on terror because he was a junior senator from north carolina who intended to run for president

by serge in dc 2007-04-26 03:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Wondering

The AUMF was supposed to get inspectors back into Iraq through the threat of force. And it did. That's not nonsense, it's what actually happened.  

I appreciate your opinion of what you believe was going on inside Edwards's mind, and you might be right, of course, but it's just conjecture.  Of course, I don't know any more than you do about what was going on inside Edwards's head.  (We can't all have Bush's uncanny ability to look into a man's soul and determine if he's a good man! :-)

So let's stick with the facts. Here is what we do know.  Edwards has said he believed there were WMD in Iraq.  Other well-known Democrats who publicly stated the same belief were Gore, Obama, Feingold, and Wellstone.  So it is clearly true that some very smart people were mistaken about WMD.  It is also an undisputed fact that getting inspectors back into Iraq was a goal not only of this country, but of the U.N. as well.  Given the widespread belief that the WMD existed, and given the national and international goal to get inspectors back into Iraq, some or many members of Congress may well have voted for the AUMF for non-political reasons.  They may well have believed it was in the best interests of our country and of the world.  This does not excuse Congress from the huge mistake of giving this president what amounted to a blank check.  But it's quite possible that their motives may not all have been as cynical as you've ascribed.

by Rob in Vermont 2007-04-26 06:11PM | 0 recs
Already has explained.

When asked, never hesitates or flinches.  He was wrong, says he was wrong, and why he changed his mind.  I wish he had been a no, but then I wish all of them had been a no.  Freaking lying war and great american rip off.

by dkmich 2007-04-26 01:54AM | 0 recs
But he has elaborated on why he was ...

... wrong ... it was wrong to trust Bush with the powers in the IWR resolution.

The only justifiable use of those power was to support the actions of the UN (as Clark noted at the time when he argued in favor of passing a resolution along the lines of the IWR, and argued strongly that it should be passed with as strong a majority as possible), and even at the time we knew enough about Bush to know that he would be willing for the US to act like a rogue state if he thought there was a political payoff in it for him and the Republican party.

by BruceMcF 2007-04-26 05:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

I've been an Edwards supporter since '03, he's already sealed the deal for me, the rest is just details :)

by catchawave 2007-04-25 04:00PM | 0 recs
Seal the Deal and Make the Case

What drew me to him and how I described him to people in 2003 was his eloquence.  I defined eloquence as the ability to take complex ideas and make them immediately understandable to everybody.  That's what Elizabeth was saying.  No matter what your background or education, John Edwards talks to you as a peer as an equal.  He believes in the best of you and expects the best of you.  At great times of crisis there arises a plain talking leader.  Lincoln too was a man of few words and a man "of , by and for THE PEOPLE".  The elites of both parties have lead for quite a while.  It's time that the people led for a change.  

by Feral Cat 2007-04-25 04:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

This is the very thing I like about Edwards.  He talks about things in a way that people understand.  It is like a personal conversation.  Plus, he's in the right place on a lot of issues I (and other rural Americans) care about.

by Mooncat 2007-04-25 04:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

i like the fact that he's a good bullshit artist.

he makes you believe what he says is what he believes.. this is a huge asset.

by serge in dc 2007-04-26 06:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

Part of why I support him is the language he uses, which uses some openly liberal frames, but also subtle social ones.  Part of the reason I support him is that his policy proposals fit my preferences best.  Part of the reason that I support him is that I have hope that those who are left behind among the poor and in inner-cities and rural areas will not be left out in a new Democratic era, but without people like him in power, they will be.

by jallen 2007-04-25 04:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal
Yeah - Hillary  can keep preaching to the same middle-to-middle-upper-class Democratic voters that weren't enough to give Kerry the election. And Obama can keep preaching to the same youth that never actually turn out to vote.
But Edwards is reaching out to those people who should vote Democrat -  rural, inner city, underprivileged, struggling middle class -  and they will vote Democratic if Edwards is the nominee. Hair style be damned, Edwards appeals to the people
by LandStander 2007-04-25 08:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

Young people came out in record numbers in 2004 and they were the only age demographic that Kerry won. I believe young people also came out strong and broke heavily for democrats in 2006 too.

by Quinton 2007-04-25 08:17PM | 0 recs
And coming out in record numbers ...

... and breaking for Kerry, they did not deliver the election.

Granted, coming out in record numbers nationwide does not necessarily have the impact you need in a battleground state when the attorney general is willing to cheat and suppress the vote in college precincts, so with an honest Ohio Sec'y of State in place for 2008, they may have stronger electoral impact this time around.

by BruceMcF 2007-04-26 05:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

I think you have something just a bit off...

Edwards may be able to come across with progressive populism and not sound like a socialist; but he could come across with socialism and sell it to people.

It's about his communication style and ability.  

He'll explain liberalism to the American people once again as THEIR political philosophy.  That's not just about swinging voters, it's about fundamental political realignment.

Remember, building an ascendant progressive movement is less about the strategy of winning elections and more about changing our culture and society as far as politics goes.  Edwards can do that.  Ipso facto, movement candidate (for this, among many other reasons) and ipso facto ipso facto, my candidate.

by Peter from WI 2007-04-25 05:47PM | 0 recs
He's sealed it for me also

some more on the Schultz talk and more here:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/4/25/ 192957/916

by okamichan13 2007-04-25 06:34PM | 0 recs
Good Diary

I agree that Hillary needs knocked down a notch. I day-dreamt today of an Obama/Edwards candidacy, in both directions.   It was a good dream.

peace,
jw

by faithfull 2007-04-25 07:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Good Diary

I keep saying it...Edwards is not going to accept the VP spot again. He absolutely hated it last time. This is probably his last shot and I'm guessing he's going all out this time for his lost son, Elizabeth and the American people. I think, he's going to play very hard because it's coming from a deep emotional place. I think at least.

by cosbo 2007-04-25 07:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Good Diary

Edwards has already said he would accept VP again.

by robliberal 2007-04-25 09:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Good Diary

Please provide a source for this, because last I heard he was explicitly ruling out another run on the bottom half of a ticket.

by McSnatherson 2007-04-26 12:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Good Diary

This is either typo or factually inaccurate.

He has said he won't accept VP nomination again.

by Peter from WI 2007-04-26 07:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Good Diary

I don't have the link but he said it in recent months.

by robliberal 2007-04-26 08:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Good Diary

I keep saying it...Edwards is not going to accept the VP spot again. He absolutely hated it last time. This is probably his last shot and I'm guessing he's going all out this time for his lost son, Elizabeth and the American people. I think, he's going to play very hard because it's coming from a deep emotional place. I think at least.

by cosbo 2007-04-25 07:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Good Diary

I believe he said the opposite a few months ago, that he would be willing.

by jallen 2007-04-25 08:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Good Diary

I don't so think...maybe a misstatement, cuz from what I understand, he found it the most frustrating experience of his life and he will not do it again. Even if he did say it, Elizabeth's prognosis has changed. I don't imagine him running for VP a second time much less running for VP for a job where he won't be able to accomplish anything of his ideas. And he wouldn't even if he accepted the VP nod from either Clinton or Obama. Their positions are less progressive than his and he would be restricted to what he can accomplish.

So in essence, Edwards accepting a VP slot would gain him nothing. So I think he's going for broke. Hard...while Elizabeth is still strong enough to help him and probably make it through two terms or even longer with him. But what I do know....I'm just watching the play, like everybody else.

by cosbo 2007-04-26 07:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

by cosbo 2007-04-25 07:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal


A little off topic, but some of the comments made about Edwards on this site recently need to be addressed.

Considering Iowa, it isn't the only reason why he is going to win the nomination.  His numbers are rising in the entire midwest, the northeast (11 point bump), and the southwest.  He's only 2 points behind Obama in an Arizona poll that made no real attempt to eliminate none primary voters AND the poll included Gore.  Gore's support will mostly go to Edwards.  Look at the schedule.

Iowa - He has won every reliable poll (the ARG polls are not reliable, I've explained it a billion times as someone else), 12 of them (tied once with Obama but the poll included Gore and once with HRC right after her annoucnemnet) since 11 months ago.  Even if the polls change slightly they'll probably change back to him.  If you don't realize that Iowa gravitates towards Edwards then pull your head out of your a$$.he has the best organization, Iowa breaks toward electability in the end (if you don't think Edwards is the most electable then you haven't seen the bulk of the general election polling, including the Rasmussen polling that shows him doing far better than either Clinton or Obama, Obama just lost 3 more points to Giuliani today), and Iowa voters are generally high information.  They don't like Hillary's fear of the word "mistake", her acting as a proxy for Bill, her attempt to run as the Clinton administration vs. the Bush administration, and her DLC style politics as usual crap.  Obama is waiting until the last minute to add any substance to anything he does and his "personality driven" campaign is well...fluffy B.S.

Nevada - This is a caucus people, maybe you should read about how it is (at this point likely) to operate.  Edwards' huge labor support with UNITE is just the beginning.  With the momentum from Iowa, Hillary's shattered "inevitability" (hell, it's already shattered) and Obama coming off of a likely third place finish in Iowa (sorry, I want him in second, he deserves second and there's a really stupid reason why he probably won't get it, but he probably won't, hope I'm wrong)

NEW HAMPSHIRE - He's doing a lot better in polling then many imagined, he's in second.  And he just recieved 50 important NH endorsements including members of the NH House and Senate (one of which no other Dem has recieved)

South Carolina - He won it in 2004.  He can win it again.  Three big endorsements just went his way and more are on the way.  People are beginning to see that the health of the lower ticket candidates depends on him being on top.

If this came across as too fiery then sorry but I am so sick of robliberal and the "donate to Obama" person (who actually weren't that bad today but are usually full of it)who not only advocate for their candidate (which is all good) but they spin for their candidate which is really pathetic because if the progressive movement isn't based on substance and facts then what is it based on?  People like them like to make little remarks alluding to some of the GOP smears of Edwards.  

The fact that the GOP is trying so hard to get something on him should tell you a lot.  We all know his life story and their is a lot of positive in their.  Look what the GOP has thrown at him and you will see why it's more than Karl Rove, Ben Ginsburg, and Gov. Matt Blunt (MO) (who thinks Edwards can win the White house even if he ignores Ohio, Florida, VA, WA, NM, CO, NV ,which he won't, he'll win most of them, by winning IA and MO.  It puts him at exactly 270 if he wins just those two but Blunt thinks he can pass 350 electoral votes) who think he can beat any Republican and help our state and local candidtes in states where we can expand our playing field.

- They went after Edwards for being an advocacy lawyer in the NC Senate race but he still beat an incumbent Senator in a six year itch election (clinton's second mid-term) although Faircloth was heavily favored going in.  Edwards beat him by 4 points and then told the GOP that he was "in their base (the south) taking their votes".  Polls showed that before he decided not to run for re-election to the Senate to pursue the White House he was beating Richard Burr (current Senator who beat Erskine Bowels who tried to hold on to Edwards' seat) by anywhere from 6 to 10 points.  And that was after having one of the most progressive voting records in the Senate in 2003.  Considering that this is in NC, a state that's other Senator was JESSE FREAKING HELMS this is very imperssive.  

If you ask why he didn't turn NC blue in 2004 I'll ask refer you to the desk of stupid questions.  Come on.  We're not talking about Iowa we're talking about a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat for president in 30 years!  And you think that they are going to ignore JOHN KERRY because one of their Senators is on the ticket.  Come on.  This is part of the "home state" fantasy that people still use against Al Gore.  If you want to actually...uh...what's that called...stand for anything resembling progressive values in a national campaign and you are from the south you are going to have to kiss your home state goodbye.  This is not 1992.  The south has very few Democratic Senators when we used to own Georgia and we had Senators in SC, and 2 in LA. The 2004 election was about national security and to a lesser extent foreign policy (not "values" like the MSM says) and NC voters didn't trust Kerry on those issues, largely because of the campaign Kerry ran.  John Kerry is a great Senator (post 04' he's been great) and he deserves respect but if you want to know why NC didn't turn blue ask Kerry why he wasn't able to do what no DEMOCRAT has done in 30 years.  Ask him why he can't make a unicorn appear and do the humpty dance while you're at it.  

- GOP SMEAR #2 - The Christopher Reeve Thing.

Edwards never said that if Kerry was elected Reeve would walk.  He said that if the stem cell research that Kerry was for was funded that some day people LIKE Christopher Reeve could walk.  He was talking about  THE FUTURE.

- GOP SMEAR #3 - The Playstation 3 thing.

Another attempt to undermine his progressive populism, which is why his message is so effective. A VOLUNTEER was asked by a STAFF member to get a playstation 3 for Edwards' son.  Edwards himself was never involved in asking for anything, except for someone to get a playstation 3 for his son. Of course he assumed that it would be BOUGHT.  The volunteer looked in the phone book and ended up settling on wal-mart.  but when he called he tried to be a hero and get Wal-Mart to give "the senator" one.  He had no idea that Edwards, being the strong supporter of labor that he is, is heavily involved in Wake Up Wal-Mart.  Wal-Mart then decided to release a press release accusing Edwards himself of trying to ask for a freebie.  This is a pretty pathetic attempt.  A sign of desperateion.

GOP SMEAR # 4 - THE BLOGGER INCIDENT

We all know about this.  Edwards did the right thing.  And by the way, he NEVER said that Marcotte was fired.  He wasn't even at the office when all of this happened.  He had to fly back to deal with it and he BUCKED HIS CONSULTANTS who where worried about the incident costing them millions in donations and kept the bloggers on.

GOP SMEAR # 5 - THE HOUSE THING

He is a presidential candidate and a prominent figure.  He has children.  Imagine the kind of response he gets from some people.  Imagine the hostility from the wingers.  Why hasn't ANYONE mentioned the security aspects of his home?  
Also many presidents have a second "White House" like Bush's "Western White House".  Edwards is the most elecatble of the 3 candidates in the party most likely to win the next election.  If you where in the top 5 most likely people to be the next president, you had a family, and you had grown up in a working class family, worked your way through college, and worked your butt off as an advocay lawyer, and even worked on the board of a company just to show that you can be a progressive populist without "hating business", what kind of property would you buy?  

This whole thing is based on the lie that those who are well off cannot care about those who aren't.  What about FDR, JFK, and RFK? Edwards ran a far more populist campaign (includig making his opposition to NAFTA a major issue) than many people wanted him to and this time he has kept making poverty a central theme (and now part of the debate as we saw both Obama and Hillary talk about dealing with it) even though DC meida elite turds think it is "terrible politics".  

GOP SMEAR %6 - The hair cut

We've heard a lot about this yet his favorability numbers and his numbers both in national polls of Democrats (which are pretty much meaningless) continue to go up.  In fact the new NBC/WSJ poll shows him gaining 5 points since last month.  Why is this?

Because the hair cut story is crap.

Look at his schedule.  He is about as busy as it gets.  Appearances matter in politics.  They do.  It sucks but it's a reality.  Kennedy beat Nixon in 60' in part becuase he looked better during the debate.  If his looks help get him elected then, which they do, then what exactly is the problem.  He's getting a hair cut not a facial or something.  But $400 is  a lot of money.  Edwards has admitted that.  So why did he have his campaign pay fot it?  He didn't.

He was busy so his campaign FLEW the stylist out.  The stylist cut his hair and then THE STYLIST BILLED THE CAMPAIGN, the campaign paid the stylist, and then it got reported in the FEC reports.  As soon as Edwards found out he repaid the campaign.  The campaign got a bill sent to them and they paid it, big deal.

There, smears addressed.  

   

by Edwards Supporters United 2007-04-25 09:30PM | 0 recs
One minor point:

"Gore's support will mostly go to Edwards."

There is no real basis for this claim. Gore's numbers, when he is included in polls, come from all of the main candidates as well as from other candidates and "Other/Unsure" category as well. Please see.

by NuevoLiberal 2007-04-26 04:25AM | 0 recs
Re: One minor point:

I should have gone into further detail.  Among those most likely to actually vote in a primary or take part ina caucus most of gore's support will go to Edwards. We've seen this in some of the online polls were former Gore hold outs are finally jumping to Edwards.

The "basis" for this claim is commom sense.  Obama will clearly get support from Gore as well.  If Gore endorses it will likely be one of those two.  

Polls, especially national one, are off base at this point.  The fact that they show that Gore's supporters back Clinton when he's not there PROVES that the sample has a lot of Democratic leaners who say "Hillary" or "Gore" because those are the two names they are most familiar with.  I am not talking about them.  I am talking about Democrats whos opinion actually matters.

I do beleive, and I am not alone in this belief that as the debate becomes more about issues even more of the Gore supporters in the national polls will lean towards Edwards.

Why?

Gore is popular because of his anti-war stance, his knowledge, his experience, being right on a lot of things for a long time, and beating Bush in 2000 (in the alternate world where all ballots are actually counted).  He is also popular for being more progressive period.

Who fits that mold?

Obama does on Iraq but Edwards has led on the issue far more than Obama since 2005 (supporting Kerry - Feingold,supporting cutting of funds for the surge (obama did neither), hell the Senate is even going moving closer to adopting Edwards idea of attemtping to send the bill back to Bush over and over and over.

Overall I think, once again, among actual primary voters who are not very prominent in the relatively small samples that many national polls who used to back Gore are going to move mainly towards Edwards.

I have no concrete proof but it makes sense if you look at the motivations for why voters  back different candidates.  Also, when GOre got his post Oscar bump whose numbers dropped the worst, even in the crappy national polls?  Edwards.

It's the same common sense that would lead to me to guess that if national polls were accurate, and considering how soft support is right now, national polls would look like this...

Clinton - 28%
Obama - 27%
Edwards- 22%  
Richardson - 4%
Biden - 2%
Dodd - 1%
Kucinich - 1%
Gravel - 0%
Unsure - 15%

Next time I'll be more careful to make it clear what I think can be backed up with common sense analysis, and what is fact.

Gore supporters going mostly to Edwards is not proven fact but I do think that common sense analysis would come to a simialar conclusion.

by Edwards Supporters United 2007-04-26 04:48AM | 0 recs
Re: One minor point:

Edwards has led on the issue far more than Obama since 2005 (supporting Kerry - Feingold,supporting cutting of funds for the surge (obama did neither), hell the Senate is even going moving closer to adopting Edwards idea of attemtping to send the bill back to Bush over and over and over.

Edwards never explicitly endorsed either Kerry-Feingold or Reid-Feingold, IIRC.

On troop surge, Obama also opposed the surge, and has a de-escalation bill from which the appropriations bills draws some aspects.

Bush sent the surge troops anyway because congress can't really stipulate how to conduct a war. It can either authorize a war (which it did back in 2002, via the Iraq War Resolution, which Edwards championed back then) or regulate funds.

However, if Congress gives less money, it doesn't directly have to result in troop reduction or preventing a surge because Bush can still send those troops in with less money to support them (or divert other military funds).

Further, Edwards explicitly said he does not want to cut off funds for troops on the ground, which means that once the surge troops are already there, if asked now, he'd probably say no to cutting off funds for them.

Edwards keeps going back to his "plan", which is a  very sketchy outline (not a detailed plan) that a willing President could probably implement, but it's not actual legislative scheme for getting things done now with Bush still in office. Edwards straddles that fence in almost everythig he says about withdrawal.

Also, I have not seen any detailed treatement from a military standpoint of what he means by "withdraw 40-50K troops immediately" (except for  saying "they should come from North and South of Iraq"). It has been argued (by some folks at DKos, eg), that reducing the troops level by a third IMMEDIATELY could put the remaining two thirds at risk, if that is done "immediately." (instead of doing over a period with a detailed plan that ensures that batallions are not undermanned or made vulnerable from a sudden drop in strength).

Bottomline as I see is that Edwards' talk on Iraq is more campaign rhetoric/gaming than real legislation or militaristic plan to get the job done as soon as possible.

by NuevoLiberal 2007-04-26 05:17AM | 0 recs
Re: One minor point:

Edwards' plan is better that Reid-Feingold.  It gets the troops home faster.

Obama voted for the Gregg Bill. He betrayed the anti war movement again.  His ambition knows no bounds.

by littafi 2007-04-26 05:36AM | 0 recs
Re: One minor point:

Edwards' plan is better that Reid-Feingold.  It gets the troops home faster.

Nope. You're mistaken.

First, Edwards' 40-50K "immediately" will probably be rejected by military commanders, even if he were President.

Second, Edwards says 12-18 months for withdrawal of most of the remaining troops, which puts us in Sep/Oct of 2008 time frame. Whereas, Feingold-Reid would end occupation by March 31, 2008. Obama's de-escalation bill also ends occupation by the same date.

So, going by stated plans (or sketches), Reid-Feingold AND Obama's bill would pullout faster than Edwards plan sketch timeline.

Obama voted for the Gregg Bill.

Gregg bill was a trap, and nothing substantive. Obama could and should have probably voted "Present" on it and ripped it apart, but voting Nay on could severely undermine the Dem nominee in the general election, which would not have been worth risking on a symbolic bill.

He betrayed the anti war movement again.

False rhetoric.

His ambition knows no bounds.

Yes, Edwards'.

by NuevoLiberal 2007-04-26 06:26AM | 0 recs
Re: One minor point:

The military commanders actually work under the president and secretary of defence, not the other way around. And from most reports, the military, besides possibly Petreus, is pretty ready to start drawing down in Iraq.

Baracks plan allows the president to basically certify that things are going okay, and things can keep going. And without any kind of link to funding, it has no teeth. The main falsity in the plan is that the idea behind it is that we can still "win" a military victory in Iraq. Obama also apparently wants to keep a relatively large force in Iraq to fight Al Queda (according to his recent speech). Its unknown where they will stay. So he doesn't seem to quite get the fact yet that our troops are actually fueling Al Quaida and helping them get recruits.

Interestingly enough Obama had the chance to vote for a timetable bill previously and voted against it. Still don't quite get that. It was too early? What exactly have we accomplished in Iraq between then and now? More dead Americans and more violence in Iraq seems to be about it.

Obama has also had several chances since he joined the Senate to oppose war funding or at the least put conditions on it. This would seem to be an easy choice if he was against the war and followed his convictions. Yet he waited a full 11 months after being elected Senator to even speak on the war and has supported every funding increase since then. And only had a sudden change in heart regarding timetables AFTER he announced his candidacy for the White House.

So yes Edwards vote was horribly wrong, everyone knows that, including himself. But since then he's been moving in the right direction and helping to push others in that same direction. Obama is to be praised for starting off in the right direction, but since then its really hard to say which direction he's been going in.

by okamichan13 2007-04-26 08:27AM | 0 recs
Re: One minor point:

You are on crack and you cannot read.

On an interview with George Stephawhatshisnane on ABC Edwards was ASKED SPECIFICALLY ABOUT KERRY- FEINGOLD and REED - LEVIN,

He said, and I quote, "I SUPPORT BOTH BILLS"

Do you just think you can lie your ass off and get away with it,

Notice I said that Edwards supported CUTTING OFF FUNDING FOR THE SURGE

not the surge in general

Obama stopped short off backing cutting of funding

Do facts even matter to you?  Somehow i think that you have adapted the GOP tactic of just muddying the waters.  And Edwards and his speech at Riverside were credited by many as making the surge such a big deal.

Go ahead and disagree with me but it was Chuck Todd (who noted that Edwards has been leading the Iraq debate on one of his recent WH 08'rankings, , Charlie Cook, Mike Allen, and other DC media types who said that they believe Edwards has been driving the IRaq debate.  I beleive it as well.  I don't always agree with DC media types but this time they got it right.

Obama is too busy running a "personality driven" campaign.

Noticed how WALL STREET is in love with him?

by Edwards Supporters United 2007-04-26 08:11AM | 0 recs
Al Gore

likely will endorse John Edwards this fall, if not sooner.  Obama and Clinton are centrist politicians, afraid to lead.  Gore sees that.

by littafi 2007-04-26 05:38AM | 0 recs
Gore did not endorse Edwards in 2004,

mainly because of the war. Here is what he said in 2003:


Al Gore endorses Howard Dean

Gore also praised Dean's opposition to the U.S.-led war in Iraq. The former vice president called the Iraq war a "catastrophic mistake" by the Bush administration, a move that leaves the United States less effective in the nation's battle against terrorism. He said the United States is now in a "quagmire" in Iraq.

"He was the only major candidate who made the correct judgment about the Iraq war," Gore said. "And he had the insight and the courage to say and do the right thing. And that's important because those judgments -- that basic common sense -- is what you want in a president."


So, dream on, but I don't think you will see an endorsement of Edwards by Gore in 2008.

by NuevoLiberal 2007-04-26 06:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Gore did not endorse Edwards in 2004,

I don't think we'll see an endorsement by Gore in 2008, mainly because Gore can exert more influence by sticking to the issues. Besides, his endorsement of an ascendant Howard Dean blew up in his face.

by clarkent 2007-04-26 06:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Gore did not endorse Edwards in 2004,

his endorsement of an ascendant Howard Dean blew up in his face.

That's a myth. Howard Dean fell from becoming the target of attacks by everyone. That was in the works in late Nov and early December.

Actually, Gore's endorsement gave strong bounces for Dean in:

  1. national polls
  2. Iowa polls
and may have helped him stay steady in NH, despite the onslaught of attacks. Here is some polling data showing that Gore's endorsement helped Dean beyond Dean's ascendence which was already subject to oncoming attacks:

national:
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm (search for Gore)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2003/12/13 /222421/35

iowa:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2003/12/12 /31510/809
http://www.surveyusa.com/2003_Elections/ IA031211demcaucuses.pdf


(There's more if readers are interested.)

by NuevoLiberal 2007-04-26 06:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Gore did not endorse Edwards in 2004,

I agree that Gore's endorsement of Dean helped Dean, but it didn't secure him the nomination.

by clarkent 2007-04-26 07:00AM | 0 recs
but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

"I don't think we'll see an endorsement by Gore in 2008", except that Obama does have an outside chance of receiving an endorsement if Gore doesn't enter the race, because on issues and in their ways of thinking (as I read them from actions and words by both), Gore and Obama do have a quite a bit in common.

by NuevoLiberal 2007-04-26 06:43AM | 0 recs
Re: but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

if anyone gets a gore endorsement it will be obama.

by serge in dc 2007-04-26 06:46AM | 0 recs
Re: but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

Edwards has a better chance at gaining Gore's endorsement than Obama.

by clarkent 2007-04-26 07:00AM | 0 recs
Re: but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

i have to disagree

obama would get the endorsement for the same reasons  that dean did  which are

1. he exercised good judgement in opposing the war since day one..as we know edwards voted to authorize bush to go to war.. this was bad judgement in the eyes of gore..

2. he has awakened a feeling of great excitement in democrats, in the grassroots, who are inspired by him... the nearly 40,000 new donors-most small- since the close of quarter 1 etc...edwards has just not tapped into that level of support..

but i don't know whether gore will endorse... and i don't think it much matters....

by serge in dc 2007-04-26 07:11AM | 0 recs
Re: but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

Sometimes the comments on MyDD slip into the retarded zone.

Politicians don't just endorse because of ideological alignment and issues.  

by Peter from WI 2007-04-26 07:51AM | 0 recs
Re: but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

yes your comment is retarded!

read the post again..try to UNDERSTAND what i'm writing

i did not write that gore would endorse obama just because of agreement on issues..altough as we have precedent for gore endorsing dean pretty much over his opposition to war i think we can say it helps obama..we also know gore passed over edwards last time..must be a reason.

try looking at point number 2 again..

and don't go calling my posts retarded again, JERK

by serge in dc 2007-04-26 07:55AM | 0 recs
Re: but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

You sort of proved the point again.

Politicians do not endorse for reasons simply relating to policy, issues, etc.

Much of it is about politics, power-brokering, long-standing relationships, connections, simple like/dislike for candidates from endorsers, etc.

Don't be so naive, and don't be so quick to snap.

I'm not saying Gore will endorse Edwards or Obama or Hillary or whomever...I'm just saying as an outside observation.

Not everything someone posts, if they have something pro-candidate in their tag, is about their candidate or some sort of spin for their candidate.

by Peter from WI 2007-04-26 09:45AM | 0 recs
Re: but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

Gore will endorse Edwards for one reason only: The environment. Edwards have a strong progressive agenda on the environment as well as plan for creating an economy of what he calls green collar jobs. http://johnedwards.com/about/issues/ener gy/new-energy-economy.

Gore will endorse whoever has the best idea on Global Warming and the Environment.

by cosbo 2007-04-26 07:54AM | 0 recs
Re: but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

I could see arguements for Gore endorsing either Obama or Edwards.

Obama because he said he was against the war while running for the senate in IL and because he's exciting a lot of people currently. Going against Obama is that he's not been a leader on ending the war since he got to the senate and he also supports liqufied coal being used as a fuel source for cars, which is very dirty, not at all progressive and no doubt doesn't go over well with Gore at all.

Edwards because though he voted to give Bush authorization if necessary to begin miltary action against Iraq, he's long since said that he was wrong to do so and has been a leader on calling on congress to block the surge and withdraw the troops already in the field. He's also putting out great environmental policies that would truly address global warming and is running a carbon neutral campaign, which in my mind is an overt play for Gore supporters and a Gore endorsement.

by Quinton 2007-04-26 10:21AM | 0 recs
Re: but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

I should have added that I think a lot will depend on how Gore views the dichotomy of Obama's promise of a different sort of politics and his large crowds seemingly indicating a people powered campaign and Obama playing politics as usual by supporting the free-trade loving DLC/centrist Hamiliton group (rubinomics) and his hoovering up of wall street and k street cash (via the lobbyists wives and networks - sneaky!).

Does Gore decide that Obama is really a people powered progressive fooling wall street and k street, or that he's really a politics as usual snake oil salesman that is fooling the people?

If Gore does believe that something seems fishy here, then which side of that question he lands on will probably make a huge difference in who and whether he endorses.

by Quinton 2007-04-26 10:29AM | 0 recs
Re: but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

Gore was a founding member of the DLC.  I doubt he'd hold  against either of them their connections.

by jallen 2007-04-26 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

Quite true, but Gore has since very much so repudiated the DLC as has Edwards who the DLC wanted to claim as their golden boy after he was elected to the senate from NC, but who never really fit their mold.

They also tried to claim Obama as a member (as in actually list him as a member until he told them to repeatedly to stop listing him).

If you look at which of the top three candidates are running as DLC type centrists it's clear as day that Hillary is and it's becoming clearer and clearer that Obama is too. It's the reason why Obama's support has been bleeding away in the netroots - we're highly engaged and highly informed as to what's going on compared to the general populance at this point.

by Quinton 2007-04-26 02:31PM | 0 recs
Re: but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

I think Gore may be playing the outsider role, but I don't think he's rejected neoliberal policies or social moderation.

by jallen 2007-04-26 02:35PM | 0 recs
Re: but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

No one will get an endorsement from Gore until the nomination is a done deal.

by Sarah Lane 2007-04-26 08:11AM | 0 recs
Re: but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

Not only have you drank the pro - Barack "Wall Street" Obama Kool - Aid.  You have chugged it.

Hey, isn't it cool how Obama was the point man for ethics and then agreed to save the Republians the shame of being called out on their shit by agreeing to team with McCain.  Then when the Dems called Wall Street on it he did the right thing, but then McCain went off on him and Obama went and hid.  that was so cool.

Just what we need in a Democratic leader.

Lost of happy talk.
Lots of talk of "consensus"
Lots of talk about how he doesn't accept lobbyist money.

But then he has his finance team CALL THE WIFF's of Lobbyists.  Don't believe me.

Google the words "Obama" and "K street"  I'm sure it's there.

He's loved by the lobbyists on K Street. He even admitted that his pledge was "sybolic.  It's a symbol alright.  A symbol that says "I act like a change agent, the end of "small politics", but really I take the advice that Daschle gives me and that is "show the lobbyists the love".

And he's loved by Wall Street.

He even has 3 Bush "Pioneers" backing him.

1 is doing so because he sounds genuinely upset with the GOP so you can't fault him for that.

But the other 2?  Mixed with all the K and Wall Street love?  When Edwards has "no discernable support whatsoever".  

The Hill reported that Edwards "tapped" David Bonior to develop relationships on the hill.  That is the same David Bonior who is Edwards' freaking campaign manager.  He believes in the campaign so much that he doesn't take a salary, he is one of the most important economic populists of our time and he was brought on because of his connections to organized labor.

organized labor and K and Wall Street don't play on the same team if you get my drift

Geez NeuvoLiberal that story is almost as silly as you are, isn't it?

Hey, maybe Obama will release his health care plan today! Or maybe he's going to postpone it like he did his foreign policy speech.  Maybe he's still waiting for your e-mail so he can figure out what to do.

Isn't it cool that he called Giuliani "America's Mayor".  Was their a vote for him to be called that because I live in America and I would have voted for you NeuvoLiberal, instead of him, and I think you're a real whippersnapper hahaLOLhahahaha.

You got to love 50's insults.

You know what food Barack Obama reminds me of?

Cotton Candy.  You want to know?  It looks all sweet from the outside but once you get past the surface you see that their is no substance.

by Edwards Supporters United 2007-04-26 08:27AM | 0 recs
Re: but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

really I take the advice that Daschle gives me and that is "show the lobbyists the love".

And he's loved by Wall Street.

He even has 3 Bush "Pioneers" backing him.

1 is doing so because he sounds genuinely upset with the GOP so you can't fault him for that.

But the other 2?  Mixed with all the K and Wall Street love?  When Edwards has "no discernable support whatsoever".  

The Hill reported that Edwards "tapped" David Bonior to develop relationships on the hill.  That is the same David Bonior who is Edwards' freaking campaign manager.  He believes in the campaign so much that he doesn't take a salary, he is one of the most important economic populists of our time and he was brought on because of his connections to organized labor.

organized labor and K and Wall Street don't play on the same team if you get my drift

Geez NeuvoLiberal that story is almost as silly as you are, isn't it?

Hey, maybe Obama will release his health care plan today! Or maybe he's going to postpone it like he did his foreign policy speech.  Maybe he's still waiting for your e-mail so he can figure out what to do.

Isn't it cool that he called Giuliani "America's Mayor".  Was their a vote for him to be called that because I live in America and I would have voted for you NeuvoLiberal, instead of him, and I think you're a real whippersnapper hahaLOLhahahaha.

You got to love 50's insults.

You know what food Barack Obama reminds me of?

Cotton Candy.  You want to know?  It looks all sweet from the outside but once you get past the surface you see that their is no substance.

by Edwards Supporters United 2007-04-26 08:28AM | 0 recs
Re: but, I do kind of agree with your prediction:

Not only have you drank the pro - Barack "Wall Street" Obama Kool - Aid.  You have chugged it.

Hey, isn't it cool how Obama was the point man for ethics and then agreed to save the Republians the shame of being called out on their shit by agreeing to team with McCain.  Then when the Dems called Wall Street on it he did the right thing, but then McCain went off on him and Obama went and hid.  that was so cool.

Just what we need in a Democratic leader.

Lost of happy talk.
Lots of talk of "consensus"
Lots of talk about how he doesn't accept lobbyist money.

But then he has his finance team CALL THE WIFF's of Lobbyists.  Don't believe me.

Google the words "Obama" and "K street"  I'm sure it's there.

He's loved by the lobbyists on K Street. He even admitted that his pledge was "sybolic.  It's a symbol alright.  A symbol that says "I act like a change agent, the end of "small politics", but really I take the advice that Daschle gives me and that is "show the lobbyists the love".

And he's loved by Wall Street.

He even has 3 Bush "Pioneers" backing him.

1 is doing so because he sounds genuinely upset with the GOP so you can't fault him for that.

But the other 2?  Mixed with all the K and Wall Street love?  When Edwards has "no discernable support whatsoever".  

The Hill reported that Edwards "tapped" David Bonior to develop relationships on the hill.  That is the same David Bonior who is Edwards' freaking campaign manager.  He believes in the campaign so much that he doesn't take a salary, he is one of the most important economic populists of our time and he was brought on because of his connections to organized labor.

organized labor and K and Wall Street don't play on the same team if you get my drift

Geez NeuvoLiberal that story is almost as silly as you are, isn't it?

Hey, maybe Obama will release his health care plan today! Or maybe he's going to postpone it like he did his foreign policy speech.  Maybe he's still waiting for your e-mail so he can figure out what to do.

Isn't it cool that he called Giuliani "America's Mayor".  Was their a vote for him to be called that because I live in America and I would have voted for you NeuvoLiberal, instead of him, and I think you're a real whippersnapper hahaLOLhahahaha.

You got to love 50's insults.

You know what food Barack Obama reminds me of?

Cotton Candy.  You want to know?  It looks all sweet from the outside but once you get past the surface you see that their is no substance.

by Edwards Supporters United 2007-04-26 08:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

The ability to explain complex ideas in simple language is a sign of great intelligence.

Exactly right, Sarah.  It's a big difference.

by littafi 2007-04-26 05:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

I'm one of those young people you're talking about, except I have insurance, only it doesn't really cover anything except if I break all my bones. I'm still paying off a medical issue because the insurance I pay for only covered $150 of my $700 bill. I work full time and barely make ends meet. Thanks for the comment.

by Sarah Lane 2007-04-26 08:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

Sorry about that, only meant to post that once.  My bad.  

by Edwards Supporters United 2007-04-26 08:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Edwards Can Seal the Deal

Sarah Lee implicitly states that socialism is bad. I disagree.

by kingsbridge77 2007-04-26 08:02PM | 0 recs
Light as a feather

He still has not solved that problem.  He just looked light up there on stage last night.  Hillary, Obama, Biden, even Dodd, all looked more Presidential.

by dpANDREWS 2007-04-27 08:20AM | 0 recs
Without Black Support, Edwards Is Toast

And I'll be damned if I can understand why Edwards does so poorly among blacks (other than perhaps getting squeezed out between Clinton and Obama), but he is.  The Pew poll yesterday showed him getting 6% of black Dems, as opposed to 46% for Clinton, and 36% for Obama.

And while the Survey USA poll of last night's debate showed Obama's capacity to pull black voters away from Hillary, Edwards didn't get very far with blacks.

If Edwards can't make inroads amongst African-Americans, he's cooked.  You can't win the Dem nomination on the white vote alone.

by RT 2007-04-27 09:15AM | 0 recs

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