No No, Mike, Obama got 57% of his 38% of the total vote from youths. That means he won even more than 57% of the youth vote (I estimate more like 75%). And youths had a 50% increase in turnout, 8 percentage points not 8%.
My hunch is, although I haven't analyzed the exit polls, that any ground Steele gained with black voters (and 10% is significant in a state that is 30% black) was negated by ground he lost among racist conservative white voters (of which there are actually many in Maryland. Although, unlike in other states, that does not translate into Republicanism since even Maryland whites are strongly Democratic). The tightening of the race at the end was probably part of the trend of white voters saying they will vote for an African American when they wont (and I didn't think Ben Cardin's performance in the meet the Press debate was all that great; he sounded kind of angry).
I think you and Chris are misinterpreting Rove. Rove wanted to imply that 1938 is OUR 1938 election. That we're going to gain like 6 seats but fundamentally the conservative ideology in America marches on, just how the New Deal consensus was unphased after the very minor Democratic defeat in 1938. Remember, Republicans have been in power 12 years now, they're not the underdogs in this race.
Not that I agree with him or anything (we're pretty certain to gain way more than 6 seats), I just think you both misunderstood Rove's analogy.