Superdelegates to Decide Democratic Nomination

Everyone says superdelegates does not matter. Well, welcome to reality. They matter.

At this point, it is mathematically impossible for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama to win the nomination with only pledged delegates.

Here is the math using CNN delegate counts.

Hillary Clinton currently has 1033 delegates according to CNN. 840 of those are pledged and 193 are superdelegates. Barack Obama has 937 delegates according to CNN. 831 are pledged and 106 are superdelegates. John Edwards has 26 pledged delegates. There are a total of 3,253 pledged delegates. Doing the math, there are 1,556 pledged delegates left to be allocated. 2,025 delegates are needed to win the nomination. This means, Clinton will need to win 992 pledged delegates to win the nomination. That is 64% of the remaining pledged delegates. Obama will need to win 1088 pledged delegates to win the nomination. That is 70% of the remaining pledged delegates. So far, no candidate has won such large shares of the delegates, even in the states where Obama beats Clinton 3-1. Get the picture?

Now, this does not mean we will have a brokered convention. There are still 500 superdelegates up for grabs and they can support anyone from now through the convention. Including pledged and superdelegates, there are just over 2000 delegates up for grabs. This means Clinton will need to win 48% of them, and Obama will need to win 53% of them to secure the nomination. So, if every superdelegates expresses their support before the convention, we will not have a brokered convention (in the loosest terms) and the nominee will be chosen on the first ballot.

The only way superdelegates do not decide the nominee is if one of the candidates drop out, or God forbid, one of the candidates become incapacitated, or if a major scandal rocks one of the candidates, or if a deal is struck between the two candidates.

(Posted on my blog at Reliable Politics)

Tags: Hillary Clinton Barack Obama Delegates Superdelegates Convention (all tags)

Comments

13 Comments

Re: Superdelegates to Decide Democratic Nomination

I want Clinton to have 3 things going into he convention.

1) the most popular votes

2) The most pledged delegates

3) The big states CA , OH , TX , PENN

by lori 2008-02-07 09:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates to Decide Democratic Nomination

I agree.

I could live with just the most popular votes though. If Obama gets more delegates, she could point to the popular vote, work hard to seat FL and MI and get the superdelegates on her side.

by RJEvans 2008-02-07 09:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates to Decide Democratic Nomination

According to the Green Papers. She has about a 525,000 popular vote lead thus far. She needs to keep the race close for her to keep that lead and win the big states.

by RJEvans 2008-02-07 09:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates to Decide Democratic Nomination

She has about a 525,000 popular vote lead thus far.

Is that including or excluding the results from Michigan and Florida?

by markjay 2008-02-07 09:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates to Decide Democratic Nomination

I don't think so. But why should it. That is 2 million voters.

by RJEvans 2008-02-07 10:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates to Decide Democratic Nomination

That is, it is included. I misread your comment.

by RJEvans 2008-02-07 10:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates to Decide Democratic Nomination

Popular votes are skewed since they don't count the caucuses...

by lordmikethegreat 2008-02-07 09:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates to Decide Democratic Nomination

Well judging by the numbers, the popular vote is counted in MN, CO, ID, KS, and ND. Their numbers are just too large for it to be state delegates. You can do an estimation on the popular vote in AK, NV and IA with the entrance poll and estimated turnout.

by RJEvans 2008-02-07 10:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates to Decide Democratic Nomination

State delegates are what's reported in caucus states.  If the party actually releases the raw vote totals from the caucus sites, then a popular vote could be totalled.  But if it's partly estimated from entrance polls (which weren't even done in the smallest states) then any discussion of the popular vote is as meaningless as the Michigan primary

by mddem456 2008-02-08 12:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates to Decide Democratic Nomination

Clinton won Mass handly. Shouldnt Kerry and Kennedy  cast their vote for Clinton. Do you think they will?

This is going to be a mess.

by Safe at Home 2008-02-08 12:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates to Decide Democratic Nomination

If this happens, expect the party to be divided in November.

I just don't see this happening well at all.  If Clinton wins because the superdelegates swings over to her at the last minute and she doesn't put Obama on the ticket, I know African-Americans, and they will be so pissed saying stuff like "the establishment stole the election" that I predict they just don't show up at the polls in November.

African-Americans are considered the base of the Democratic party and the most reliable Dem voters.  If they do not come out in huge numbers for the winner of the primary in the Fall, the Dems could LOSE swing states in the Fall.  This is the scary scenario that could happen this year.

I hope this ends well and we are united as a party for if we are not we are going to lose.

by puma 2008-02-08 03:22AM | 0 recs
Democratic votes

Can we talk about the fact that this is a Democratic convention, and that the Democratic superdelegates help to offset the votes by Independents and some Republicans in our Democratic primaries and caucuses?

by nascardem 2008-02-08 05:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates to Decide Democratic Nomination

If Clinton wins this race by getting  more super delegates than Obama, then there should be no complaining about it from the Obama camp.  Those are the rules, and it is not as if the contested, unsolved states (and their delegates) of Florida and Michigan are in his pocket, quite to the contrary.  

by georgep 2008-02-08 06:03AM | 0 recs

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