Superdelegates to Decide Democratic Nomination
by RJEvans, Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 09:22:20 PM EST
Everyone says superdelegates does not matter. Well, welcome to reality. They matter.
At this point, it is mathematically impossible for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama to win the nomination with only pledged delegates.
Here is the math using CNN delegate counts.
Hillary Clinton currently has 1033 delegates according to CNN. 840 of those are pledged and 193 are superdelegates. Barack Obama has 937 delegates according to CNN. 831 are pledged and 106 are superdelegates. John Edwards has 26 pledged delegates. There are a total of 3,253 pledged delegates. Doing the math, there are 1,556 pledged delegates left to be allocated. 2,025 delegates are needed to win the nomination. This means, Clinton will need to win 992 pledged delegates to win the nomination. That is 64% of the remaining pledged delegates. Obama will need to win 1088 pledged delegates to win the nomination. That is 70% of the remaining pledged delegates. So far, no candidate has won such large shares of the delegates, even in the states where Obama beats Clinton 3-1. Get the picture?
Now, this does not mean we will have a brokered convention. There are still 500 superdelegates up for grabs and they can support anyone from now through the convention. Including pledged and superdelegates, there are just over 2000 delegates up for grabs. This means Clinton will need to win 48% of them, and Obama will need to win 53% of them to secure the nomination. So, if every superdelegates expresses their support before the convention, we will not have a brokered convention (in the loosest terms) and the nominee will be chosen on the first ballot.
The only way superdelegates do not decide the nominee is if one of the candidates drop out, or God forbid, one of the candidates become incapacitated, or if a major scandal rocks one of the candidates, or if a deal is struck between the two candidates.(Posted on my blog at Reliable Politics)