Why Has The Race Tightened UP?

Why has the race tightened up?  I think it is a combination of three factors.

1.  The Republican base is coming home to McCain.  Of course if he picks a pro-choice VP, then he will put this group into a lather which will like cost him a point or two in the polls, but probably less, when all is said in done in the voting booth.  Its one thing to tell a pollster you haven't made up your mind because you are pissed off, its another to not vote at all, or, gasp, vote for the all pro-choice ticket.

2.  The attack ads have had a modest effect on Obama, by playing to the meme of "otherness." This has lead some independents who were earlier saying they would vote for Obama (based largely on general anti-Republicanism) to slip back to "I haven't made up my mind" when polled.

3.  The whole VP dance, and "putting her name in nomination or not" dance has served to reopen the barely scabbed wounds of the really angry part of Hillary's support.  Let's call it about 20% of her primary season voters.  When the pollsters call these women (my assumption is that is mostly women) they are too angry to say that they will vote for Obama.  And McCain's flirting with a pro-choice VP, gives them a little cover, as they toy with the idea of violating every core principle they have, out of anger.  But again, it is hard to imagine that in November, with a pro-choice, progressive ticket within smelling distance of the White House, that they will stay home, or vote McCain.

So..  If I were McCain, I would shoot for the independents, reclaim my maverick brand, and pick Tom Ridge, let the base chips fall as they may.  But, I don't think he will do that.  He will pick a safer VP, who is anti-choice, firm up his base, but also further dilute his "maverick" brand, and look like just another Republican in a year when the Republican brand is toxic.

If Obama picks a women VP, the Hillary really angry group will come home to him sooner than if he picks a white male, but either way, when it comes time to vote, that group will sigh deeply about how close they came to electing one of their own President, and vote for Obama.  Indeed, they may well deny it to pollsters right up to the moment in the voting booth, but when the actual votes are counted, I bet more than two-thirds of that group comes home to Obama.  

Tags: Hillary, obama, polls, VP (all tags)

Comments

39 Comments

"That group will sigh...and come

home to Obama"??????

Yup, like a battered wife returns to her abusing "other".

No thank you.

by Shazone 2008-08-21 06:36AM | 0 recs
Re: "That group will sigh...and come

Are you insinuating something here because belittling abused spouses because your whiny, insignificant, barely able to complete a coherent sentence, stupidity didn't get there way, pampers?

by Dog Chains 2008-08-21 06:42AM | 0 recs
Re: "That group will sigh...and come

Please.   Trolls are ugly.  You don't want to be a troll.  Do you?  'Dog Chain'?  You want to be a classy guy, I know you do.

by GoldLame 2008-08-21 07:07AM | 0 recs
Re: "That group will sigh...and come

Sorry, here I thought comparing BHO to a wife beater was wrong and disgusting, my bad

by Dog Chains 2008-08-21 09:19AM | 0 recs
Re: "That group will sigh...and come

Now there's a coherent statement...

by Sabrina Duncan 2008-08-21 07:12AM | 0 recs
Re: "That group will sigh...and come

Yep, and this is the kind of political discourse that will propel us to the White House.  Comparing our candidate to a wife beater?

Newsflash-if Obama loses it will there will have to be glaciers forming in Hades before HRC gets close to a nomination thanks to comments like this one.

by xenontab 2008-08-21 07:00AM | 0 recs
Re: "That group will sigh...and come

I don't agree with the comment you berate, for obvious reasons, and I think the commenter comparing female voters 'returning' to Obama with females who return to 'wife beaters' needs a good dose of counseling and community service.

Likewise, I feel your last comment causes you to need the same.

Just more "it's Hillary's fault because (insert cause of the day for kooks here)" crap.

If Obama loses, it's because it's his to loose, and because he missed opportunities to mend the party and kick GOP ass when he had them.

by emsprater 2008-08-21 07:13AM | 0 recs
Re: "That group will sigh...and come

"he missed opportunities to mend the party"

Ummmmm, no. Let's see, they wanted a role call, he's giving a roll call. They wanted Clinton to have a big role, every Clinton has a PRIME TIME CONVENTION SPEAKING GIG. It may not be Hillary's fault, I agree, but it's definitely not for lack of him trying...

by Dog Chains 2008-08-21 09:20AM | 0 recs
Lets see

..we have Bill Clinton on TV refusing to say Obama is qualified for president, and praising McCain's green stance.  We have HRC's brother and supporters having meeting with McCain reps.  Constant sniping from supporter likes Ms Buell and Mr Wolfson.

If she does not start publicly and privately reigning them in, people will start thinking her support for Obama now is just a cover.  And there wont be much forgiving and forgetting this type of behavior

by xenontab 2008-08-21 10:02AM | 0 recs
Re: "That group will sigh...and come

Now this is good.  When Hillary supporters were run out on a rail from sites like this over the last few months all we heard was "Don't let the door hit your asses on the way out, you hysterical insignificant losers!"  

And now we will be to blame if Obama loses because the voting public (and the media, surprisingly) is starting to see how banal, empty, disengaged, uninspiring and plain awful Obama is as a candidate?  We did try to warn you people.  But blame us for his loss - we are so very used to it.

by Sabrina Duncan 2008-08-21 07:17AM | 0 recs
Run out on a rail?

Gaah, your culture of victimhood knows no bounds.  No Hillary Clinton supporter was ever banned or even asked to leave (by non-trolls) from MyDD or dailyKos simply for being pro-Clinton.

I'd wait until the election post-mortem before posting your um, counterintuitive arguments about Obama being uninspiring.  Do you have a plan for pretending you never wrote these posts in the (still) likely event Obama wins?

by corph 2008-08-21 09:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Run out on a rail?

Beware the sock puppets, they have been staying in old gym shoes too long

by Dog Chains 2008-08-21 09:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Run out on a rail?

Thanks for the analysis of my "victimhood".  And italicize all you like, limpdick, I don't need a plan for anything but how many kegs to buy for the party I am going to throw when Obama loses.  You idiots were so fucking cocksure of yourselves and of him.  Shifty Sandals is already looking to run for Governor of Illinois when he loses.

by Sabrina Duncan 2008-08-21 10:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Run out on a rail?

If Obama loses, the only people to blame (or to praise) for his loss are the people who won't vote for him or who won't contribute to his campaign for selfish or petty reasoning.

That's how democracy works. If you honestly support Obama, you're not to blame for his loss, you're only to congratulate for his potential victory.

If you honestly oppose Obama, you're not to blame for his potential defeat, you're to be congratulated on it (since his defeat will be your result you were seeking).

In short, you're not to "blame" for any honest informed decision you make, you're only to blame for the decisions you make out of spite or out of laziness.

by Aris Katsaris2 2008-08-21 11:25AM | 0 recs
Italics rule!

You're still here, aren't you?  I don't even care enough to trollrate your post.

Poor little victim of the Democratic primaries.  You sound, I dunno, bitter about something.  Do you feel down periodically?  Don't know why, after all, you're able to predict the majority opinion of 120 million people 3 months in advance.  Wall Street beckons!  Why waste your time here with all these bloggers trying to run you out of town on a rail?

I know, maybe you can coordninate with the other PUMAs (I can use boldface too!) with all those kegs you plan to buy, and book a big Washinton downtown hotel for an I told you so party.  Won't even matter who actually wins, you can always invent another reality.

Oh, and you might have a few kegs left over.

by corph 2008-08-21 02:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Italics rule!

No poor little victim here you pantywaist.  I'll enjoy the coming apocalypse even more thanks to effete schmucks like you.

by Sabrina Duncan 2008-08-21 02:27PM | 0 recs
Ooh, this is fun.

Don't worry, given that you're clearly no older than twelve, it's a pretty good bet you will see a woman in the White House during your lifetime.

Oh, and don't forget to cash in on the Apocalypse!  You can more than double your allowance buying McCain contracts on Intrade.

by corph 2008-08-22 08:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Has The Race Tightened UP?

"If Obama picks a women VP, the Hillary really angry group will come home to him sooner than if he picks a white male,"

Actually I have been told the opposite.

If Obama picks ANOTHER female (Sebelius?) the ardent feminist core at NoQuarter and Alegre'sHellHole will burn the party to the ground.

That's because ALL of Feminism has really ONLY been for one single person....

Screw my daughter, who will have to live with a right wing USSC for most of her life after McCain sticks some middle righty on their, this is about punishment....

by WashStateBlue 2008-08-21 06:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Has The Race Tightened UP?

Why must your hatred (reasonable or not) for a group so small that they wouldn't fill Mr Toad's Wild Ride at DIsney World if all of them showed up at the same time cloud your commentary every day with negativity?

They are of no matter.  I repeat, THEY ARE OF NO MATTER.

by emsprater 2008-08-21 07:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Has The Race Tightened UP?

I could not disagree more, they DO matter, and I think they will prove how a small group can cause havoc.

My opinion is, some of the coverage in Denver will be the coverage of the Puma Effect.

You know the media, they LOVE a controversial story.

Maybe only 500, or a 1000 will show up, but they will look like an army on TV.

And CNN et all will give them blanket coverage.

Then, Hillary and Obama will be questioned about it endlessly....

So, I agree with you, this is NOT about Hillary and this is NOT her fault.

But, it WILL be a big story, coming out of Denver none the less.

Unity or not?  

And, BTW, folks who have sworn to me they weren't PUMA have made that statement to me here:

If Sebelius is choosen, it is an insult to Hillary and more sexism.

I promise you, (and, you KNOW I prefer Hillary, but not to placate the PUMAs) if Obama picks Sebelius, folks who SWEAR they are not PUMA will scream bloody murder on these boards....

Sebelius is not even in my top 5, but I don't think picking her has anything to do with insulting Hillary, I just think she is not a good choice.

But, I think IF HE chooses Sebelius, you can count on a flood of TV coverage of the protestors....

by WashStateBlue 2008-08-21 07:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Has The Race Tightened UP?

Well, you know I am on record as not wanting Hillary as VP.  Not because I don't support her or her ability, but because she would be a wasted asset sitting in a 'second bananna' slot, and she deserves more than a 'Miss Congeniality' prize.

I think  Sebelius is an unknown, untested personality who could bring to tthe ticket ot detract from it, but I don't dee the energy needed for a win coming from her selection.  In my thoughts, now only two men no longer being talked about can do that, Wes Clark or Mark Warner.  Biden, Byah, Kaine are all 'ho hum'.

The 'pumas' are so insignificant a group they are like a Phelps group at a funeral; detested, reviled and yes, covered by the media but not in a positive way.  Also, did you hear recently that Hillary herself has put together a group of supporters to work to control the 'puma types' at the convention because she does not want their crap to cause any problems?

The more attention that 'we' give them (the SOWs as I call them, 'puma' is too akin to cougar) the more import they absorb.  They, like the Phelps clan, are best ignored when not present and obstructed from view when present and shouted down by the masses when vocal.

by emsprater 2008-08-21 08:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Many pseudo-PUMAs exist

There are misinformed, ignorant people everywhere, what's your point?

by Dog Chains 2008-08-21 09:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Glad you know yourself Dog Chains

yeah, OK, any time you would like to discuss actual issues, give me a call, Sparky. You're ignorant, I know myself quite well, I also know that people like you are pretty pathetic

by Dog Chains 2008-08-21 10:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Glad you know yourself Dog Chains

I agree with you that the commenter's anecdote of a Democrat who hopes to have the supers give the nod to Clinton is just ludicrous, that's not going to happen.

You don't have to be downright insulting to say all that, it weakens your credibility.

by emsprater 2008-08-21 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Glad you know yourself Dog Chains

I have no credibility to begin with so that's not my point;) This is the same person who rec'd the person earlier for comparing BHO to a wife beater. You people put up with that, I haven't the time or energy to

by Dog Chains 2008-08-21 12:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Glad you know yourself Dog Chains

'you people'?

I rarely HR or TR, but if you read the thread you will see I speak out against the 'wife beating' comparison, and have not uprated any of the 'puma'commentary, and have actually stated disagreement with at least one.

Of course, to you I am just 'you people'.

Isn't that a 'dogwhistle' phrase?

by emsprater 2008-08-21 05:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Why Has The Race Tightened UP?

I think come home may be the wrong phrase :) Will most of the present folks saying no finally hold their noses and vote for Obama probably.

However there will also always be a small group who finds more to their liking to cut off their noses.

by jsfox 2008-08-21 06:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Has The Race Tightened UP?

I'm not convinced the race has tightened all that much.  I think the polls from early this summer were a mirage and it was always going to be a horse-race.  

by the mollusk 2008-08-21 06:59AM | 0 recs
When Obama was up 5-6

earlier this summer, it stemmed from the actual existence of Obamacans and Obama's performance among independent men, many of which used to be Republicans.

Since then, Obamacans have all vanished; the pubs are "fired up and ready to go."  The enthuisiasm to defeat Obama is reaching its boiling point, I can even feel it here in Seattle among these "moderate" pubs.  Independent men have abandoned Obama as well, which accounts for McCain running up the score against Obama among white men to an even greater degree than Bush against Kerry, even though independent women from the suburbs have stayed in his corner by a decent margin.

HRC's support among conservative democratic, older white women have not expressed all summer and remain undecided.

by Blazers Edge 2008-08-21 07:00AM | 0 recs
should read

"HRC's support among conservative democratic, older white women have not expressed a preference all summer and remain undecided."

These women will decide the election; they voted for Gore but didn't vote for Kerry.  Obama's hope is to perform as well as Gore among women and as well as Kerry among men.

by Blazers Edge 2008-08-21 07:02AM | 0 recs
Re: When Obama was up 5-6

point, I can even feel it here in Seattle among these "moderate pubs...

Blazer where do you live and what part of the moderate pub population are you talking to?

Most of the Repubs I am talking to are sticking to the "Obama/Rossi" plan.....

by WashStateBlue 2008-08-21 07:05AM | 0 recs
Re: When Obama was up 5-6

My take on the 'Obamacan' mythology:  Republicans who crossed over during the primaries to defeat Clinton.  That's who they were, are, and forever will be, and now are returing to the 'blessed' GOP having sucessfully assisted in finally defeating a Clinton.

by emsprater 2008-08-21 07:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Has The Race Tightened UP?
As a male supporter of Hillary, and there are many of us, I find your logic incredibly twisted.
And if BO picks another woman, Sibelius?, for Veep, the Hillary supporters will only be angrier - not mollified - because it would be a patent (and ultimately unsuccessful) pander.
WHY pick any other female, when Hillary is obviously the most qualified?
Frankly, his whole VP dance has been amateurish, narrow-minded and foolish.
by M1513 2008-08-21 07:43AM | 0 recs
Drill, Drill, Drill.

We need to dramatically increase domestic energy exploration, and the Republicans are killing us on this issue. Even the Chinese Communists--who with Cuba's help will soon be drilling sixty miles off our coast--understand that to lower price, you have to increase supply.

Nancy--I have to save the planet--Pelosi is dragging the party down to defeat with her intransigence on drilling; by not even allowing a House vote to lift the OCS ban on drilling, she is appearing unreasonable and obstructionist. Ironically, this is preventing a discussion of drilling based on the merits or environmental concerns; she has shifted the debate to the issue of why House members are not being allowed to vote on an issue of concern to most Americans. And there's no way she'll win that one, trust me. Her imperial stance seems to say "members don't have to vote; I know best". Did someone say "Newt Gingrich?

There is a way out: Obama could use the Russian crisis to change his stand on offshore drilling, given that two critical pipelines flow through Georgia. As John Maynard Keynes once said, "when facts change, I change my opinions; and what do you do sir?" McCain was late to the party on drill/drill/drill, so that will neutralize any charges of flip-flopping. But Obama has got to act soon, and in the process tell Pelosi to screw off.

by BJJ Fighter 2008-08-21 08:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Drill, Drill, Drill.

and while he's at it, he could promise to immediately bring Georgia into NATO and almost guaranteeing a war with Russia.  He could adopt a "round 'em up" policy on illegal immigrants.  Then he could promise to extend the Bush tax cuts.  And he could raise the specter of a war with Venezuela unless they cut their ties to "the terrorists."  This would leave John McCain with no issues to run on.

Oh yeah, and maybe he could step on a few puppies just to prove that he's larger than them.

snark

by the mollusk 2008-08-21 09:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Has The Race Tightened UP?

The reason the race has tightened up is McCain is running a better stronger campaign than Obama.

1)  He has led and Obama has followed on drilling, visiting Iraq what has Obama led on that McCain followed?

2)  McCain attacks by saying Obama isn't ready and Obama can't defend.  Obama attacks by saying McCain isn't change and McCain responds by offering a new kind of debate, new policies on power generation (nuke and offshore drilling) and basically pulls a draw on the change metric.

Hence McCain can reach into Obama's base more than Obama with their base defined as support polled a few months ago.

Obama has lost control of the fundamentals of this election.

by dtaylor2 2008-08-21 09:25AM | 0 recs
But

if Obama picks a white male, and McCain picks a competent female, McCain picks up the undecided former Hillary supporters. According to a CBS news poll, one-half of undecided voters (7%), said the Clinton was their first choice to be president.

However, I don't think McCain will pick a woman as VP. He was thinking about nominating Sarah Palin, but the possibility of scandal has thrown her off the VP list.

by Zzyzzy 2008-08-21 10:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Just pick a token woman

I want you to tell me any woman besides Clinton that you would not consider to be a mere "token".

Your misogyny shows.

On my part, I hope Obama chooses anyone, male or female, who will want the ticket to win in November. Clinton doesn't qualify because she very obviously wants him to lose.

by Aris Katsaris2 2008-08-21 11:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Has The Race Tightened UP?

I think part of it is because Sen. McCain's handlers have stopped his informal chats with the media and are making sure there's not much opportunity for him to stray from his talking points.

He still manages to do it every now and again, like with the "rich-is-an-income-of-$5M" and not knowing for sure how many houses he and Mrs. McCain own.

But in as much as they can control it, they have shut down his off the cuff chatter.

by Liberal Monk 2008-08-21 01:18PM | 0 recs

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