Here is a poll you won't hear Obama supporters talking about.  One way to put this into perspective is to imagine that Obama is only four points away from Hillary in a New York state poll. Such a revelation would have Obama supporters dancing in the streets, or at least all over mydd.com

It is also important to remember that Hillary only recently visited Illinois to begin campaigning and fundraising. Obama headed right to New York to fundraise and campaign, after he announced he was running for President.  

Another surprise is that Hillary and Obama split the Independent vote 50/50.  

I realize this is just one poll, but it certainly calls attention to the state of Illinois and what many people just took for granted, ie:  That Obama would stay well ahead in his "home" state.  Is this a reflection of Obama's popularity, or lack thereof, as a Senator for Illinois?  Are the Rezko stories hurting him in his own state?  

And where is Obama's "fundraising bump"?  

http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2007/07/ sweet_blog_special_clinton_in_1.html

WASHINGTON--White House hopeful Barack Obama does not have a lock on the primary in his home state, according to a new American Research Group Illinois poll. The ARG poll--600 telephone interviews of likely Democratic voters and 509 people who said they were Democrats and 91 who said they were Independents--was taken between July 6-9. That period includes all the upbeat publicity Obama gained in the Illinois press coming in first in the money primary. In Illinois, a voter declares a party preference on primary day. Margin of error plus or minus 4 points.

Overall, It's 37 percent for Obama and 33 percent for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.). In a breakdown, it's 39 percent of Democrats for Obama and 34 percent for Clinton. Among Independents, it is an even split--26 percent each. The gender gap persists in Illinois: Obama leads Clinton 41 percent to 24 percent among men, while Clinton leads Obama 40 percent to 33 percent among women.

ARG polled Illinois in January; in this July edition former Sen. John Edwards (D- N.C.) doubled his support from five to ten percent.

On the GOP side in Illinois, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads at 30 percent in Illinois to 21 percent for former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.), who is poised to jump in the Republican primary. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is at 12 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is at 11 percent.

For the poll highlights ... read on.

Presidential Primary Preference:
Illinois
Likely Democratic Primary Voters Jan 2007 Jul 2007

Biden 3% 1%
Clark 1% 1%
Clinton 30% 33%
Dodd 2% 1%
Edwards 5% 10%
Gravel - -
Kerry 2% ni
Kucinich 1% 1%
Obama 36% 37%
Richardson 3% 4%
Vilsack 2% ni
Undecided 16% 12%

Preference by party:
Illinois
Likely Democratic Primary Voters Democrats (85%) Independents (15%)

Biden 1% -
Clark 1% 2%
Clinton 34% 26%
Dodd 1% -
Edwards 7% 27%
Gravel - -
Kucinich 1% -
Obama 39% 26%
Richardson 4% 2%
Undecided 12% 17%

About this Survey -
Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

The American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since 1985.

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Democratic primary voters living in Illinois (509 Democrats and 91 independent voters).

Sample Dates: July 6-9, 2007

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Question Wording:

If the 2008 Democratic presidential preference primary were being held today between (names rotated) Joe Biden, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Christopher Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote?

Would you say that you definitely plan to vote in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, that you might vote in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, or that you will probably not vote in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary?