For keeping a level head.  We're winning.  This is a bounce.  The number of advantages we've got is frightening.  Do NOT forget that.

If so, that may help us out as the national service forum with McCain and Obama will take place on that day as well.  I feel that Obama is once against on McCain's turf, just as Saddleback was McCain's turf.  Palin's interview could take away attention from the event if it doesn't go down so well.

Why cannot we have one of these forums focused on labor issues?

Hillary Clinton voters now?  

More than once or twice, Obama supporters on the blogs triumphantly claimed that he didn't need her voters.
I wonder if they have snapped out of that shit.

This is excellent!  Exactly what I needed.  After seeing the photo, I'm envisioning Samuel L Jackson in Pulp Fiction.  I do believe Obama and his team no what they are doing, and what they need to do next.

great picture! now THAT'S the Obama I want to see more of.

Thanks Reap for the much needed shot in the arm.  I didn't need it myself, but my there's been much CONCERN around here.

You had to see it coming. Open races are destined to be tight. I'm confident Obama will prevail but the odds all year have been in the correct range, 60/40, and not lopsided favoritism as many posters preferred to believe.

Virtually every major decision has chipped away at our potential advantage. When we narrowed it to either a woman or black atop the ticket, that was essentially forfeiting opportunity for a rout. I'm not avoiding that topic simply because it's uncomfortable. It's the reason I supported Mark Warner initially. He would have been in ultimate cruise control mode now, "the true map changer," as Jerome called him.

The other side refused to nominate a hard line conservative who could easily be linked to Bush. Those pictures of McCain hugging Bush are swell, but the public doesn't think of him that way, so we have our hands full. Then the VP choice was brilliantly cynical, essentially challenging apolitical women not to fall for it.

My major frustration is we continue to botch the situational priority list. In an open race you need unquestioned credentials, since the course of the nation is at stake and there's no direct comparison to an incumbent. Versus an incumbent you want a charismatic nominee. Otherwise you have no chance unless the incumbent is inept with 40ish approval.

In other words, we nominated Kerry when an Obama-type would have been preferable, and Obama when a Kerry-like resume would have made us invulnerable. It's not something I invented for 2008. I was posting it long before I ever heard of Barack Obama. If Obama loses, it will be due to concerns of his readiness. You never want that question front and center in an open race, not when the major swing stages are slightly more conservative than the nation as a whole. It's the reason I turned to Hillary above Obama. When we have more natural margin for error through demographic changes, mistakes will be easier to overcome.

I second what you have said Reaper0Bot0.

And I want to add two more things.

1. Go Donate to Obama.

2. Keep repeating that Palin is just more of the same.

The benefits:

1. Will keep Obama's war chest full to keep expanding the map.

2. What you say here, and what you repeat here does indeed get picked up by the MSM and by both candidates.

Palin: Just an extension of McSame.

Linking McCain to Bush will fail, people already belive he is some sort of maverick/POW BS so it would be better to attack him on his own record. As for Palin, she can go shove a hockey stick up her ass for all I care, that is one unqualified dumbass, she makes Cheney looks good. Hell, she is the reason I am supporting Obama, even though I think he is completely inexperienced.

Unlike that nasty little person who just suggested something awful a la Abner Louima, I recommend your diary. Love the picture and caption. This is a US Senator. A Harvard Law School grad. A man with great intelligence and uncanny political skills - his timing is near perfect. He is our next President and he's the one I want to have telling Russia or Iran to chill out. Daddy Obama also has two children and he probably would rip the throat out of anyone who tried to harm them - or any other little girl for that matter. Obama is not a pacifist, he's pragmatic. There is nothing different about this man than any other man who protects and defends this country.  This old white Latino guy says Obama/Biden 08, and so do my white skinned kids. Imagine someone who says hey don't pick on the little brown ones at the same time knowing that his priority is fighting for any working and middle class person trying to work and provide. It's called strong leadership. No props required.

I'm actually encouraged by the size of the bump.  It is relatively small.  Also, unlike the last Repub convention, the main topic of discussion is someone on their ticket.  The luster will eventually wear off as people get to know her (it does for every single politician regardless of belief system).

What made '04 so unbearable was that every thing they threw at Kerry stuck and that was all anyone was talking about out of the convention.  So the huge bump was a move away from Kerry.  I see this move as a move toward Palin.  So there is absolutely nothing to see here.  A good debate performance by Senator Obama and the numbers will move back.

Seriously.  The RNC just ended: what did people expect?  Anyway, Rasmussen just put out a bunch of swing state polls and... we're pretty much where we were two weeks ago.  Leading in Colorado, down a couple of points in Ohio and Florida, tied in Virginia.

Nice diary.
A quote from Barack that bear repeating - The Democrats are professional hand-wringers.

I was watching the news tonight and Heather Wilson was on and was asked what John McCain is going to do to get the economy back on track. She said "keep taxes low" and then went into the "drill here, drill now" mantra.
Wait until the debates - Obama is going to destroy McCain's notion that the GOP ticket stands for "change."

What was underestimated was how the cocky behavior of the Obama supporters turned people off.  Your unity BS.  Now that you threw Hillary under the bus and her supporters.  The Dnc included.  Nobody could figure out what might happen.  All I can say is shame on you.  Not everyone drank the cool aid.

We own the economy, folks.

I know some staunch GOP-types (actual Bush defenders), and they are very worried about losing this. It doesn't seem like a slam dunk from the other side, not sure why people feel it's a sure loss from this one.

Interestingly, one of the GOPers said that the blog reaction was why he doesn't want "the libs" in power. He believes we crumble under pressure. On the other hand (and I quote) "Obama stays cool though.".

Thanks Reaper. I also feel confident that the election is ours to lose, that this is likely McCain's high water mark. We do need to recalibrate our attack, and yesterday's "Whoa" commercial was a good start. I hope there is some video of Palin campaigning pro Bridge to Nowhere so that we can run another ad that is just the two of them back to back contradicting themselves over the bridge, over the Bush tax cuts etc.

Problem is a lot of saw this coming and have been urging that the Obama campaign "snap out of it."  As many feared Obama is running a soft, overly verbose campaign, and is letting the Republicans define the race.

I agree.  McCain bounced, only to be even.  

That's not to say we should be concerned, but this isn't a reason to go apeshit.  Help Obama out organize McCain.  Help him reach out to voters.  Donate:

http://www.actblue.com/page/united_democ ratic_party_money_bomb

Obama is underperforming Congressional Democrats.   In previos cycles our Presidential candidate has actually outperformed Congressional Democrats, according to Bower's numbers.

I think that sums it up rigth there.  Obama is running an ineffective campaign.  

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do;jse ssionid=7850AD9B6B2DB2E3C1019210E457D5F5 ?diaryId=8069

What I thought would happen was a Hillary candidacy blowing McCain out of the water.

..... Obama campaign better damn well be concerned.  

We ALL knew going up against Hillary was nothing in comparison to going up against a party who has the voting machines put in place to win this thing.  They have stolen so many elections and got away with it, what's to make them think otherwise.

The closing in the polls is ALL the thieves need to do their dirty work.

Sorry, I'll be called a gloom and doom person, but I've been concerned about the theft of this election from the word go!

The thought of Sarah Palin as VP makes me want to puke.  I was unhappy and disappointed in "evangelicals" as they marched behind Bush.  Now, as they gather behind Palin, I am completely disgusted!

I am angry about this .... we can hope that MORE Democrats, those who supported HRC until she lost, will be angrier and we can hope that the Republicans have played their Palin card just in time to wake Americans UP to the fact that this fight is far from over!

This is the game changer that Mark Penn has been waiting for.

We're on the bus, but having seen similar versions of this mistake made in the last two presidential elections (Dems taking women voters for granted) we're tired of shutting up about it.

We're on the bus, we're raising money and volunteering, but we're also using this as a "teachable moment" to get our party to stop acting like jackasses when it comes to women voters.

You will continue to hear complaints about it now because the party and its leaders refuse to listen any other time.  We've got your attention and we're going to make sure you learn to stop making the same dumb mistakes.  It's your choice. Learn or deal with it.

When will people realize that this election is also about TIMING. McSame is peaking now, so how is he going to sustain that momentum, especially when they just keep digging themselves in deeper and deeper with all their lies. Now you see Obama call them out on their lies. Next step he will connect those lies to issues of trust, i.e. how can you TRUST people who have been lying to you about their records. So the election turns to trust and issues and change. Well guess who wins on those platforms?

Heck, I'd rec it ten times just for the picture. ;)

In case anyone doubted that this race is still favoring Obama, Gallup just came out with its regional polling for the week of September 1 -7 (through the RNC).

You can see it here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/108037/Candid ate-Support-Region.aspx

Prior to the RNC, Obama was up 17 points in the East; he's still up 11.
McCain was up only 4 in the South--he's now up 13.
In the Midwest Obama was up 10, and is now up by 6; and in the West his lead has remained the same: 7 points.

It will be interesting to see how this looks next week, when the polling is all post-convention.  But what this shows is that McCain has mostly only managed to solidify his base; the South is now crazy for him.  Obama was never going to win in the South anyway.  And unless things get a whole lot uglier in the next week or two, Obama will still have significant leads in the regions that will decide this election--the mid-West and West.

Please note that Charlie Gibson's interview will be this Thursday and Friday.  In it, you will probably see tearful goodbyes between Sarah Palin and her oldest son as he goes off to Iraq.  You will see Charlie Gibson asking soft ball questions so that the he can continue the interviews into Friday.  You will see the softer side of Sarah Palin, the lies told through a smiling mouth, and the attacks on Obama/Biden while offering Gibson cookies.

The repubs will love her.  The ignorant independents (not all indies are ignorant btw) will love her.  The polls will be ecstatic.  You will see a Palin bounce next week, and even more crying and gnashing of teeth by us more knowledgeable Dems.

Obama will still have 50 days to crush McCain/Palin after those polls come out.  50 days is an eternity in politics.  Ask Jeremiah Wright.  Oh what was that?  50 days after Fox played him for 2 weeks straight every hour on the hour he was a distant memory?  Thank you.

Great dairy but if for nothing else that fabulous picture!

I used to be a Hillary supporter and I swore NEVER to support Obama under any circumstances until the Democratic convention, and ESPECIALLY when McCain PICKED PALIN.I WILL be voting for the Obama/Biden ticket this November. It REALLY hurts now to see something shocking such as this Gallup poll.I knew as soon as I saw Palin's face that this woman was going to be major trouble for the Dems. She is appealing to those voters who could not bring themselves to support Obama in big states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania.She has also done something that has not happened since Reagan: Giving the GOP a candidate they can WORSHIP and at the same time knowing that she is protected with a "Teflon" coating that Reagan was born with.Obama and Biden ignores Palin at their peril. They MUST figure out a way to go after her on the ISSUES that really matter to the American people this year and that our side can win on.If it is her personality vs. Obama/Biden we will LOSE. You all can count on it...

I'm more concerned that, since July, most of the major tracking polls began including more Republicans in their samples. It's less accurate and misleading when the number of registered Democrats likely to vote outnumber Republicans. People want to vote for a winner. If an undecided reviews a series of polls that suggest McCain is the "winner" then his/her vote might be covertly influenced by the misleading data.

From Huffington Post

Abramowitz simply doesn't think the overall spike in Republican sampling among all three polling firms is an accurate reflection of the electorate. "It's just not likely," he says. Given how important polls can be in the coverage of the race, even a slight assist to McCain during a period in which he is exciting the Republican base could help him solidify a new narrative in the race, regardless of the partisan facts on the ground.

thanks for your concern. I will keep looking at reality myself and take things seriously and try to not let this chance slip out of our fingers as much as it is possible for one person to do so.

I saw this coming unfortunately. I was hoping to be wrong. I am hoping I am wrong about what I see coming, which isn't a change in perspective at all.  I think we lost this in the primary. But I will vote & get everyone I know to vote Dem.  Timewise though I have to dedicate myself to preserving my future as best as I can b/c I don't believe any of my efforts to campaign will yield any fruit.  This country is going to be in for an even WORSE state affairs with as time goes on with the GOP in charge.

jrsygrl and the rest of you chicken littles. Understand some things please. For all the talk of McSame's surge in the "national polls" he still is losing in the polls that count- the EV polls. Not that any of us should put much faith in any poll. Regardless. If you beat the mind, the body is irrelevant. Too many of us have allowed our minds to be beaten by the past. ENOUGH! The way you make a bully back up is to hit him. They may hit you back, maybe even beat you up, but after that, they never, ever, bully you again. This goes for middle school and politics. We have to work like we are going to TAKE this thing. We cannot have a mindset that we a going to back into a win. We can and we will win IF we believe that we will, and we operate as though all we have to to is TAKE it! Everyone who reads this, quit fretting. Quit whinning. And QUIT BEING AFRAID!. In the end, all we can ever do is the best we can do. After that, it's up to faith, GOD and destiny. If you as individuals know that you did all you could do to win, then you have nothing to hang your head about, and it will be alright. Actually, it will be better than alright. You will thrive. We will thrive. LET'S GET IT! "NEVER GIVE UP. NEVER GIVE UP. NEVER GIVE UP" Winston Churchill.

a few months ago. That's Nate from fivethirtyeight.  Every poll has to be paid for by someone (or some group).  That group owns the poll results and can choose to release them to the media or not.

We shouldn't assume that just because there are some polls out there that make M/P look good they are the only ones.  

Obama's campaign has polls too but they don't release them to the media.