Is way to early to pick on polls; especially in MO- in that sense the numbers are not that bad-now, I am curious about the polling methodology- does Rasmussen balance the polls with the current R/D balance which is unfavorable to Rs? My guess is that he hasn't yet- and I think Gallup does- which would explain the 10 point gap in the national polls. Also he polls likely voters. Considering the that R field is set and the D is not, that would be an advantage. And one thing- Hillary is overdoing it and it is costing her.
I supported Hillary in VA because of the electability issue like you bring up- especially because of those blue collar voters you talked about- however, the pastor issue will be water under the bridge soon enough-Obama has his work cut out for him to appeal to a wider sect but by and large the specifics of Wright should hurt him that much-
The speech was brillant- he condemned Rev. Wright w/o reservations several times and involved Ferraro once and only as a comparison on how to deal with special matters. Jerome's take is too narrow- the totality of the speech invokes a growing culture with warts and all- he is a true American.
Many a gasbags here: Pelosi's comments many be inopportune and oddly against self interest if she's for Obama as reported since he will surely prevail in the total votes category. But the rules dictate that the superdelegates vote any way they want by the criteria they set. Electablity should be a critical criteria but it is the superdelegates themself, like Pelosi, who determine the criteria, any criteria they want. Pelosi is right to argue for her own standard.
Yes, but it was close and as long as the island mantains the current status, the issue will be at the forefront. Also, this cycle may represent the best chance of statehood in many generations (IF: Dem. Congress and Statehood island government)- it is supected that part of the reason that the island rejects statehood is because Congress would not grant it- that may change.
The issue of future island status will determine the winner here. Obama is allied with Rep. Gutierrez (D-ILL) who was born in the island and has communist afiliations- my guess is that Hillary will lean for statehood and will carry the vote.
Thanks- maybe you should post a diary with this since it contains interesting information. The way I read it is that basically, the elected delegates, not counting FL and MICH, control the whole thing.
How is the electoral college favoring Dems?
Looking at the last two elections we see that 47 states voted one way. That's the base. The three states that changed were NH, IA and NM. All now lean D, meaning if nothing changed, a D would win. Now McCain probably has some appeal in NM, so NM is not a given. AZ is close to swing but obviously McCain would carry it. The following is a short list of states that McCain would need to retain to win: OH, AK, WVA, VA, FL, COLO, NC. I don't think he can carry AK or WVA. OH wants out of Iraq. FL is truly a swing state again. McCain will need to win absolutely every swing state in this scenario. On the other hand, PA does becomes closer. On a close election, I think the Ds have the edge just because the R have no margin of error.
I sense a lot of anxiety and with some reason on the Rs presumptive nominee. So let me delineate some thoughts.
1- It is way to early to predict how McCain will perform against either Hillary or Obama. McCain got the equivalent of a convention bump and leads Obama by 6 in Rasmussen. The generic congressional ballot by the same pollster has Ds leading by 5 which tells me that Rasmussen is oversampling Rs a tad. Both Obama and Hillary are bringing in new voters that are not tallied in the polling models.
2- With apologies to Sommersby, it is my earnest opinion that the media can swing 2.5 pts from one side to the other (afterall, Gore did receive more votes than Bush). This number is substantial but not determinative.
3- McCain will be trashed and will be hurt by it. It is possible that he will literally implode, harming himself even more.
4-McCain may perish, he is after all, the oldest candidate and not of good health.
5-A Clinton/Obama ticket would be formidable.
6-Obama is the most electable D because of the inchoate Hillary hatred. Conservatives will stay home and not vote if Obama is the candidate instead of supporting a tax increase, pro-immigration, pro-gay, soft on life (abortion), campaign reform; anti-torture and too compromising with the Ds on many issues unlike the current occupant. McCain would need Ds legislators because of the Rs legislator's hatred of the man (with reason).
7-Iraq: bad position for McCain.
8- Electoral College: overall favorable to Ds.
Word to the wise: Nobody should get any credit for predicting Iowa (e.g., Zogby). The projections involved were pure guesswork and someone was bound to guess right. CNN is also highly unrealiable. At this juncture only robo-calls (Rasmussen and Survey USA)- have any reliability, and even then there is some guesswork. The best thing about them is the trendlines.