Black vote will eaily grow by 2% or even 3%. Hispanic vote has been growing 2% every four years and accelerating - also it trends D by far this year from 60% to 70%. These two factors alone create a Kerry plus 5% which is a 2% lead for O. Add another set for Ds outpolling Rs (probably by more than 4 this year and it is probably included in the Black and Hispanic sampling) and you have a extremely difficult R roadmap. VA is already trending O by 6 (SUSA)- and believe- that ain't changing. Soldiers are stupid and do not want to die. The military vote will be close to 50/50. An interesting observation by someone- the R motivation is starting to fade for several reasons and this will probaly create an insurmountable problem for Rs. As to which poll? Rasmuseen had an easy election last time= very steady- remember he was way off in 2000- so there is a house bias; however, he did pick up the +5 to +6 O gain last week- I think RCP average has a great track record and I would stick with that. Once Obama is out the MOE (a 3+ lead in the polls) he will be out of the danger zone.
JA- I agree that national polls are mostly worthless but they indicate trends. I think the 2004 turnout model is off- and I lean more towards a 2000 model (+4 D) because of registrations, incumbency and because the Palin pick will wear off. PA is always kind of a close state so it should not be unusual to have odd results every once in a while. I am certainly fascinated by OH, VA and FL which seem trending towards O- I can't make sense of COL. Someone help? As to VA, where I am, let me say that I never saw Obama winning the primary by as much as he did despite losing Appalachia 10:1. With the numbers of registrations going D and the military getting tired of wars- I think VA will go O- one reason- the type Palin's christianity does not wear well among religious conservatives here (on the other hand, this may be the reason COL. is polling the way it is).
Diageo is a very highly rated outfit. Pew leans D-Gallup rates above average but it is because their polls go all over the place and their average is around the middle- personally- I consider them reliable only one month out of the election when they adjust their swings.
Just read your post - pretty good- you even good JA to post. We all agree then that CO is the state. (I actually said this in another diary a month ago). It would be nice to get someone in the ground to report from there. As to the some of the Great Lakes being in contention? I really have not seen anything that makes believe it- yes the polling is tight but not unusual. Something interesting about the polling- O swings more than Mc who seems to have a cap. I think voters are still learning about O.
Concerned? Of course! The race ought to be run as it were even. But what's your point? Ignore all polls? I do notice you have a propensity to cherry pick data and thus hurting your credibility. I would like it more if you explained the poll as some have. I do not like the weekend theory but the sample size does look awfully small. How good have USA commissioned Gallup polls fared? What are the internals? Why does the likely voter skew R in this poll when it is Ds who seem more enthusiastic?
Oil as an issue is overrated. Even more than Rev. Wright, this issue will fade to memory as people adapt. I do agree that we need oil for the foreseeable future but I doubt Floridians are willing to risk their sunny beaches and tourism industry for a one act dog. My point here is, JA, that you seem to overreact with every poll that goes the wrong way. I think we all need to be attentative and apprehensive but certainly not hysterical.
How many times must this canard be repeated. It seems as if both sides have an interest in propagating this falsehood. The exit polls were wrong as shown by Rudy Texeira (I believe it was him). The polls were later normalized to show Bush getting 40% in 2004. Please, let's be accurate.
Obama most assuredly will win 269 votes-while loosing OH, NH and NEV- he will carry COLO and NM- a 269 EC result would lead to president Obama because Congress with its Democratic majority will vote for Barrack (an exact state tally needs to be done to confirm this last point). Ohio is pretty much in flux - Bush carried the state by slightly less than his overall margin- if Obama wins the popular vote as he probably will because of Iraq, he should carry Ohio. NM and NEV are currently toss- ups.