We lost for several reasons and little do do with ACA. And as stated by some, the loss is more situational than ideological.

1-Economy

2-Gerrymanding

3-Lower turnout in a midterm.

4-First midterm of a pres.

So what about 2012? Here is where it gets interesting.  The EC will shift 6 seats to the Reps. Also the SW is turning hard D- so when everything is said and done Ds win w/o Ohio and FL and with NM, NV, COL and IA. We need to focus on those states now- especially IA.  In fact, the path to victory should be pretty easing barring a native son (Pawlenty?).  As to the gerrymanding - TX FL and PA are gerrymanded to death- not much to gain on the part of R. OH and MI are a different story.  However, NY may bear fruit. The CAL initiative may shift a couple seats from the historical 3:2 ratio but I doubt it.