So we still have 9 House races that are too close to call.

Please give your predictions. Who will win the recounts in:

• Conn. 2, Rob Simmons vs. Joe Courtney
  
• Ga. 12, John Barrow vs. Max Burns
  
• Pa. 8, Mike Fitzpatrick vs. Patrick Murphy
  
• N.M. 1, Heather Wilson vs. Patricia Madrid
  
• N.C. 8, Robin Hayes vs. Larry Kissell
  
• Wyo. At Large, Barbara Cubin vs. Gary Trauner
  
• Wash. 8, Dave Reichert vs. Darcy Burner
  
• Ohio 15, Deborah Pryce vs. Mary Jo Kilroy
  
• Ohio 2, Jean Schmidt vs. Vic Wulsin

There are also 2 races requiring December runoffs:

• La. 2, Bill Jefferson vs. Karen Carter (both Democrats)
  
• Texas 23, Henry Bonilla vs. Ciro Rodriguez (GOP incumbent vs. Dem challenger)

Start your predictions. Who wins these tight ones?

UPDATE: PA-8 called for Murphy. Since LA-2 is guaranteed to go to a Democrat, we just don't know which one, I include that in the numbers, and thus the House has 230 Democrats and 196 Republicans. 8 seats not called yet, and 1 (TX-23) to be determined by a runoff.

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How sweet. Turns out Peter Roskam (GOP candidate in my district) is having a fundraiser on the 12th with President Bush and...(drum roll)...Speaker Hastert. Aw, feel the love!

There's lots of it: Roskam, as of June 30, has gotten more $$$$ from leadership PACs than any other Congressional challenger in the nation. Roskam's campaign manager doesn't even dispute this, crediting Speaker Hastert for the contributions. "That's related to how important [Hastert] is for us in this race. I think it also shows that, if elected, Peter Roskam can make an instant impact on Washington, D.C."

Yeah, instant impact. I won't even go to the obvious disgusting joke there. Suffice to say, cough FOLEY cough

Amazing that these days anyone would want Hastert on their side of the aisle.

More than wanting Hastert on his side of the aisle, Dear Senator Roskam also said in the Chicago Trib several days ago that he "takes the Speaker of the House at face value". This last spring he said he "would support whatever Speaker Hastert does...". Wow, that is one loyal dude. Then again, he should be. He was handpicked by Hastert and Henry "Youthful Indiscretion" Hyde to run for this seat, remember?

Apparently Roskam is in so deep with the GOP leadership he doesn't even know that it might not be a good idea to kiss up to Dennis Hastert these days. But hey, money is money, right?

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Not only is this a crucial election year in the United States, Canada, Israel, and many other countries, but it is also a whirlwind election year in Latin America.

The first of these Latin American elections began this winter, with Honduras on November 27. Then came parliamentary elections in Venezuela, presidential in Bolivia, and just yesterday, Chile.

You may be asking, "Who cares? Why do elections in Latin America matter to the U.S.?"

Read! Below the fold...

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Today the Census Bureau released its new population estimates for all 50 states. Three states - New York, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, lost population. The fastest growth was in Nevada, Arizona, Idaho, and Florida.

These trends are unsurprising. They've been continuing for decades. But they have a real effect on the apportionment of seats in the House of Representatives every decade.

Read my estimated changes below the fold...

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Go here:

http://committeeforfairelections.com

What is this? It's a group that has written three petitions that would create nonpartisan redistricting in Florida, ending decades of hideous gerrymandering (this last time most egregiously by Republicans) in favor of a fairer system.

I'm not affiliated with the Committee. But I am strongly behind this cause. Florida is the most unrepresentative state in the Union because of gerrymandering by the GOP. What should be a congressional delegation of 13 Republicans and 12 Democrats has become a delegation of 18 Republicans, 7 Democrats (over 72% GOP in a 50/50 state!). The State Senate should be 21 Republicans, 19 Democrats; instead, it's 26 Republicans, 14 Democrats. And the State House should be 62 Republicans, 58 Democrats; instead, 84 Republicans, 36 Democrats!

All of this can change if we pass nonpartisan redistricting in the state. But first, it must make it to the ballot. That's where you come in.

Read below the fold...

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A disappointment in LA-07. Former Rep. Chris John (D-La.) says he won't run.

http://www.acadiananow.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051201/NEWS01/51201001&SearchID=73228350 185069

What a shame. With even a slight Democratic breeze, he would have had this one in the bag.

Oh well.

Luckily, they are still trying to recruit Ken Lucas (D-Ky.) for his old seat, KY-04: http://www.draftkenlucas.com

The last installation, from http://www.oursenate.com

Pennsylvania - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Rick Santorum (R) - elected in 1994

Like many Democrats, State Treasurer Bob Casey has lost a little bit of ground in the last month according to a new poll, but he still retains a good lead. Santorum is truly endangered, more than any other Senator in 2006, and Casey is the only challenger in the country who is consistently leading an incumbent. But Santorum will raise more money and has a reputation as a fierce campaigner. Watch this one.

Rhode Island - Toss-Up
Incumbent: Lincoln Chafee (R) - appointed in 1999

Chafee is walking a political tightrope. He needs to keep Republicans in his corner so that he can win a tough primary against conservative Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. But because Rhode Island is one of the most anti-Bush, Democratic states in the Union, he needs to keep support from Independents and Democrats. He is trying hard to do all of this, but it seems to me that he can only survive so long in this kind of limbo. The problem is that he is too moderate to keep the Republican base happy, and that may depress GOP turnout. Yet he is too Bush-happy for most Ocean State Democrats, many of whom backed him in 2000. And on top of everything else, despite a healthy approval rating his polling numbers hardly indicate a slam-dunk against either Laffey or the two Democratic candidates, U.S. Attorney Sheldon Whitehouse and Secretary of State Matt Brown. To paraphrase the immortal words of former Texas Gov. Ann Richards: "Poor Lincoln. He can't help it. He was born with spaghetti in his spine."

Keep reading below the fold...

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From http://www.oursenate.com

Minnesota (OPEN) - Toss-Up
Incumbent: Mark Dayton (D) - elected in 2000

Some liberal bloggers eagerly label this "lean Democratic", but that is hardly reasonable. Yes, President Bush is unpopular in the Midwest. Yes, Minnesota showed signs of Democratic trends in 2004. But the Democratic field is messy and hardly breathtaking, while Republicans have gone all-out for Rep. Mark Kennedy, crowning him their next Senator from Minnesota. Definitely, this is the Republicans' best pickup opportunity for the Senate in 2006, by far, as Florida, Michigan, Nebraska, New Jersey, and Washington all lean towards staying in Democratic hands. But nothing is known until the DFL convention, in which Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar is the frontrunner. A Klobuchar vs. Kennedy race would likely involve mudslinging and a lot of national attention. Klobuchar has a reputation as a good speaker, but Kennedy is a "rising star" in Minnesota politics and will be rested and backed by the Rove machine. He will likely take the opportunity to label Klobuchar a Twin Cities liberal, etc. She has a good background as a prosecutor, but in the end is she too wonkish for suburban and exurban Minnesotans? This whole race is definitely the biggest "who knows?" of the Senate contests.

Mississippi - Solid Republican if Lott runs, Likely Republican otherwise
Incumbent: Trent Lott (R) - elected in 1988

If Lott runs for reelection, he wins. It's as simple as that. But Hurricane Katrina has hurt him financially, and rumors are spreading that he might retire. My guess is he runs, keeping this one solid for the GOP. But if not, Democrats have a deep, deep bench in Mississippi.

Keep reading below the jump...

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From http://www.oursenate.com:

At last, it is October, and you know what that means. Monthly update time.

Arizona - Likely Republican
Incumbent: Jon Kyl (R) - elected in 1994

John McCain, always surprisingly willing to drink the Kool-Aid, has endorsed Kyl in no uncertain terms, and will be heading his reelection campaign. Luckily for Democrats, Jim Pederson, the former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party and one of the wealthiest men in the Grand Canyon State, is running. Pederson should run a well-financed campaign, and Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, a heavy favorite for reelection herself, plans to pull out all the stops.

California - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Dianne Feinstein (D) - elected in 1992 special election

Feinstein retains a healthy approval rating and is respected as a voice of moderation. No prominent Republican is running, as all attention is on saving Gov. Gropenegger...oh, sorry, Schwarzenegger.

Connecticut - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Joe Lieberman (D) - elected in 1988

Sorry, liberal blogs. Lieberman has sealed the deal.

Delaware - Solid Democratic
Incumbent: Tom Carper (D) - elected in 2000

Big, big yawn. If Carper doesn't get 60% it will be shocking.

Keep reading below the fold...

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And finally, our dramatic conclusion.

Pennsylvania - Lean Democratic
Incumbent: Rick Santorum (R) - elected in 1994

No polls have been released for a few weeks, but it is safe to assume Santorum is still struggling for air. Every single poll has shown State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr., the shoo-in for the Democratic nomination, leading Santorum, usually by a good margin. Most D.C. "insiders" still cling to calling this a toss-up, but when an incumbent can't even crack 42% against a challenger who hasn't even begun really campaigning, that is not a toss-up. Barring a major change of dynamic, Casey will win this, probably by more than 7 points. Then again, once the Republican slime machine gets going, you never know.

Rhode Island - Toss-Up
Incumbent: Lincoln Chafee (R) - appointed in 1999

Chafee is sweating right now, and if he's not he should be. Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey looks to be challenging Chafee in the Republican primary, endangering GOP chances of keeping this seat in heavily Democratic Rhode Island. The Rhode Island GOP is not happy with Chafee, and Laffey could scare Chafee into spending lots of money just in the primary. Even if Chafee were to win renomination, that would leave him financially drained going into November, and he will already be facing a tough reelection against either U.S. Attorney Sheldon Whitehouse or Secretary of State Matt Brown. Chafee is polling in the low 40's against either Democrat, and his renomination battle is hardly a slam-dunk. After Pennsylvania, this is the second most endangered Republican seat.

The rest below the fold...

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