Obama Is A Fox, Not a Hedgehog
by QTG, Wed Jul 29, 2009 at 08:27:09 AM EDT
John Dean writes a scholarly analysis, based on Philip Tetlock's book Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Philip E. Tetlock (now a professor at the School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley) interviewed and re-interviewed 284 men and women with advanced degrees and professional training in law, political science, economics, business, journalism, public policy, and international relations to judge their skill in predicting future political events. Over two decades, he asked and tested responses to basic questions such as: Who will win the presidential election and by how much? Will the GDP increase, decrease, or stay the same? Will defense spending rise, fall, or stay the same? Which nations will likely develop weapons of mass destruction? Where will we go to war? Is the dot.com growth on NASDAQ a bubble and if so, when will it pop? What nations will ratify the Kyoto Protocol to regulate carbon emissions?
Dean explains how why he classifies recent Presidents.
....This bit is happy news for all of us:
Tetlock reported his findings in Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? As one of his peers, Paul Sniderman, pointed out in reviewing his friend's book, its sober findings might obscure its importance because Tetlock found that "[c]himps do nearly as well as experts in forecasting the future; and experts do no better in their area of expertise than dilettantes."..... more
After reading his short and interesting article, I think we could all agree with his conclusion. "let us be satisfied that we no longer have a hedgehog in the Oval Office. "