The DNC got the primary schedule wrong

(cross-posted at Deny My Freedom and Daily Kos)

In an earlier post on the issue of the Democratic Party's potential changes to the primary calendar in 2008, I had supported the changes. I remember how Howard Dean, my favored candidate in 2004, sank like a stone after his dismal 3rd-place showing in the Iowa caucus. As I became more involved in politics, I thought that Iowa and New Hampshire had a disproportionate influence in the nomination process. I commented as such a couple months ago:


This is a good step forward for our nomination process. Even though the small size of Iowa and New Hampshire allow for true retail politics, and both are swing states in this day and age, they simply aren't representative of the demographics of the Democratic Party. Furthermore, just how important is retail politics? In local races, I think that retail politics is an absolute must; however, in the race for president, most people won't even get to see the candidates in person, much less interact with them on a personal level. Frankly, most politicians are going to come off as nice guys (or women) when you speak to them up-close.

Today, the changes I was speaking about earlier came into effect. By a voice vote, a new schedule for the 2008 primary was approved. The plan calls for Nevada - a state with a large labor base and a sizeable Hispanic minority - to hold a caucus between Iowa's caucus and New Hampshire's primary. South Carolina will also hold the first primary after New Hampshire, as soon as a week after the Granite State. While I was initially enthusiastic about such changes, I think that the DNC knows there is a problem with the nomination calendar - but after giving the matter some thought, they have made the matter worse instead of better.

The politicians at today's DNC meeting who opposed the changes had various reasons for doing so.


New Hampshire objected loudly to the lineup and has threatened to leapfrog over the other contests to retain its pre-eminent role.

[...]

Eager to avoid such a rebellion, Democrats also adopted sanctions to penalize presidential candidates who campaign in states that cut in line by denying them delegates from those contests.

But party officials acknowledged the effort was a gamble. Candidates eager to curry favor with Democrats in the early states could simply ignore the sanctions, particularly if the states jumping ahead are small and have few delegates to offer.

[...]

Brewer said he agreed the schedule needed change, but argued the new lineup ignored the populous and union heavy industrial rust belt.

Most of these objections are mostly nonsense. New Hampshire's cherished 'first-in-the-nation' primary is merely a reaction to the sense of entitlement the state feels it should have. The prospect of states simply ignoring the rules and changing their dates would further exacerbate the main problem, which I'll elaborate on below. The argument for holding a primary in a Rust Belt state is a good one, but in the end, I don't feel like the problem with the primary schedule comes down to one of demographics, even though I believed that to be so before. While it is something that might need to be changed, I don't believe that should be a top priority.

Instead, the problem, I feel, lies in the unbelievable front-loading that such a schedule creates. In the AP article, such concerns are commented upon:


Opponents complain that adding contests in Nevada and South Carolina crowds the early stages of the nomination process and the party's nominee could be determined by the beginning of February, before most states even get a chance to vote.

[...]

Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University in Des Moines, said the proposed schedule would make Iowa's influence even more disproportionate.

"If there was a big stretch between the caucuses and New Hampshire, you have time to recover from a stumble and, if you do well, you have time to show some real weaknesses further down the road," he said.

To me, this is the biggest problem with the new schedule. You have four races in the time period of two weeks. Markos did an examination of the effect that Kerry's Iowa win had on his poll numbers - they shot through the roof in New Hampshire, erasing a once-solid margin that Dean had held. Kerry won New Hampshire, and the rest is history - despite losing a couple of primaries due to the regional influences of other candidates (Clark in Oklahoma, Edwards in South Carolina), he essentially had the nomination locked up in 3 weeks, as his two initial victories snowballed into additional wins in primaries the following week. If you look at the 2004 primary calendar, you can see how front-loaded the schedule was - Super Tuesday was essentially a civic exercise in voting that had no real effect on eventual outcome.

In a Brookings Institution panel voiced similar concerns about the front-loading of the primary schedule:


Mayer worries that front-loading was diluting the democratic process. "It greatly condenses the time that voters have to learn about the candidates and make their decisions," he said. "Most Americans don't really start paying attention to the nomination race until the delegates are already selected?.By the time the nominee is chosen, voters still won't have any idea of who they are or who the defeated candidates are."

Anthony Corrado, a professor at Colby College and a visiting fellow in Governance Studies at Brookings, agreed, saying "we have a process now that--in the best case--will disenfranchise the voters in at least a third of the states because the die is already cast before they go to the polls."

They attributed the reason for condensing the schedule due to 'New Hampshire envy' - other states want to have the attention (and perhaps the economic benefits) that Iowa and New Hampshire enjoy as the first caucus and primary in the nation, respectively. Other states may be jealous, but in 2004, they certainly didn't do anything aside from validate Kerry's early victories in 2004 without much real thought. While one could argue that it put primary participation in several states just below or above previous participation records in the Democratic primary, there's no denying that the effect of states that voted later was severely diminished by throwing up so many primaries early on.

To evaluate what happened in 2004, I looked at the 1992 primaries, the last time there was a truly competitive Democratic presidential primary (Clinton ran for re-election in 1996, and Gore was the de facto nominee in 2000 as the incumbent VP). In examining that year's primary calendar, one will notice that there was a three-week period between Iowa and a primary date that had multiple states voting at the same time - and it was only 5 states at that, compared to the 7 states in 2004. It's true that some regional influences must be accounted for in 1992: Senator Tom Harkin won Iowa on the strength of living there, and former senator Paul Tsongas, who won the New Hampshire primary, resided in Massachusetts. Then-Senator Bob Kerrey had a base of support in Nebraska that probably influenced next-door South Dakota. However, it wasn't until Clinton had a string of victories on Super Tuesday - one month after the Iowa caucuses - that a clear front-runner was established. On the other hand, after Kerry won New Hampshire, he was widely accepted as the front-runner, a notion that was cemented by his victories on February 3, 2004 - a mere one week after his win in the Northeast.

I don't dispute the claims that Iowa and New Hamsphire are not representative of the Democratic Party. The right-wing reasoning on our primary changes, which hints at thinly veiled racism, isn't the true problem with our party, which is that we need to focus on winning back white voters at the expense of minorities. Instead, we need a primary schedule that is more drawn out and allows for Democrats in many different states take a good look at all of our nominees and determine who they think the best one is. One of the arguments for front-loading in 2004 was that by determining our nominee earlier, we would unite behind one candidate quickly and would be at less of a disadvantage when it came to fundraising. In 2008, it will be a free-for-all on both sides, as Bush cannot run again and Cheney has shown no inclination to run for the top spot. We needed changes in the 2008 calendar, to be sure. I wouldn't have any problem putting Nevada and South Carolina a couple weeks after New Hampshire - but to bunch them together in a 2-week timespan may force our voters to make a hurried choice for our next nominee - and it may not be the best choice.

Tags: 2004 Elections, 2008 elections, caucus, Democratic National Committee, DNC, Iowa, New Hampshire, Primary (all tags)

Comments

9 Comments

Re: The DNC got the primary schedule wrong

Mark Brewer is a complete piece of crap.

What sort of asshole will listen to a speech about blogs changing politics and then kick out the people who are cited (i.e. Stoller, Armstrong, Trippi)?

If people listened to Brewer, we would be stuck with Donnie Fowler as DNC Chair.

Luckily, anyone who isn't an insider realizes he is worthless.

by Bob Brigham 2006-08-19 06:51PM | 0 recs
Re: The DNC got the primary schedule wrong

Okay...his suggestions were fairly worthless, IMO. But that wasn't the main focus of my piece - I tended to focus more on the front-loading aspect, which I think is a genuine problem.

by PsiFighter37 2006-08-19 07:22PM | 0 recs
Re: The DNC got the primary schedule wrong

I just think it is important to remember the Fact that Mark Brewer is the problem.

by Bob Brigham 2006-08-19 08:04PM | 0 recs
Re: The DNC got the primary schedule wrong

I have been deeply suspicious of this whole thing from the start. Why not just leave New Hampshire and Iowa alone? Current history is proving to be less than kind to those who want to change things without considering all the repercussions.

Even more importantly, there has been an easily discernible trend for party committees to impose changes without considering or consulting party members. Here in Massachusetts, the main Democratic party committee has, just a few months ago, endowed itself with the power to meet in total secret, and to impose any rules it sees fit during those secret enclaves. A star chamber, it has become. It even granted itself the power to dismiss the candidates voted in by the members in any primary in such a secret session, and replace them with candidates of its own choosing!!!

This top-down trend is a potential disaster.

by blues 2006-08-19 08:26PM | 0 recs
Re: The DNC got the primary schedule wrong

The current setup freezes out most voters from participating in choosing the party nominees.  I think this is a bad thing.  Actually, a very bad thing.  Part and parcel of this, of course, is that the demographic makeup of the early voters (the only ones that have counted) bears little resemblance to the Democratic Party as a whole.

Beyond that, the present system does not work for Democrats.  True, we are dealing with a limited set of data here, but no Democratic candidate has won in either Iowa or New Hampshire since Jimmy Carter in 1976 and gone on to be President.  None. (Iowa has produced only two winners, Jimmy Carter and George W. Bush, in its short run).

The biggest player in that stakes is not New Hampshire but Iowa.  The winner in Iowa went on to win contested nominations in five of six cycles for Democrats.  This represents not only the triumph of "retail politics" but also the triumph of caucuses rather than primaries.  One can argue that the system tends to bland out the results because a) voters first choices may be canceled due to failure to meet "viability" making second choices more important b) public pressure from "neighborhood leaders" may cause some voters to shy away from more controversial candidates.  Not only are retail politics not representative but a caucus environment is clearly not typical of American elections, either.

I have argued in the past, and I still believe, that the easiest step to prolong the process would be to make Iowa and New Hampshire dates identical (throw in a less white bread state, too, please).  This would have the likely effect of producing multiple winners.  No clear choice means that the rest of us take part in the process.  And, of course, a longer process means that candidate flaws and weaknesses are likely to be examined and debated well before the party selections are made rather than surprising us in August or September.

Should we leave things alone?  Hell, no.  Will the existence of a Nevada caucus change the oversize dominance of Iowa?  Who knows.  We won't know the effects until it is over.  

by David Kowalski 2006-08-19 10:45PM | 0 recs
Re: The DNC got the primary schedule wrong

I hate the idea of a front loaded primary. In 2004, when we still had a race, the Democratic Primary was being covered in the news and Bush was pushed off the front page.  As soon as we picked a nominee Bush commanded the front pages again.  As long as we held the news we were able to promote our message but that ended way too soon for my taste.

by lisadawn82 2006-08-20 04:35AM | 0 recs
It's not all about the states...

Campaigns make the decision to participate in the front-loaded race, and choose to be the hare, not the tortoise.  When the advisory board for the DG08PAC sat down to write our campaign plan, we eschewed the traditional wisdom that we had to, or more importantly, that we could, play the game the way everyone else does.  So instead, we laid out a strategy for the long-run, where we would actively compete only in blue or purple-trending-blue contests, many of which happen much later in the calendar.

We're doing this because 1) our strength will be in our grassroots and netroots organizing and 2) without a committed candidate, we won't be able to (not that we want to) raise the cash needed for large media buys.  But there is no reason why other campaigns, particularly those which claim to be "grassroots" based, can't do this as well.  

by MBW 2006-08-20 05:54AM | 0 recs
Re: The DNC got the primary schedule wrong

It's more than likely already been bought by Hillary Clinton as far as I am concerned. People can't even stand up and fight her in the NY primary for Senate, so I doubt there would be much fighting her otherwise for all of the talk of the "netroots" that claim to be fighting for the people and against the war in Iraq, but goes with the money like everybody else in the political world in the end. It is obvious that yes, this IS all a game to the political operatives who play this as business as usual. And all of this talk as if this process is actually decided by the people is laughable to me. Front load, back load, it's all a load as far I am concerned. And since people in this country don't seem outraged enough for all of their talk to make sure Bush is impeached and that he doesn't get to continue his crimes until January 2009, I have no illusions about this toxic process staying the same as it always was and going where the money is... it has nothing to do with the people.

There will be no "brokered" convention, no draft, and in my view no counting of all the votes especially if DIEBOLD is still allowed to count them. I certainly don't see aything to make me believe otherwise. So perhaps instead of blowing smoke up our butts on these blogs as if all is above board with this process and we live in a real Democracy, people should for once tell the truth about this system really works, and how in the end no matter how you load primaries, it is always the Party pick and the one "who plays ball" that gets the nomination.

by thinkforyourself 2006-08-20 08:15AM | 0 recs
Re: The DNC got the primary schedule wrong

I vote to make Florida and Ohio first  since they are really the swingest of states.

by jasmine 2006-08-20 07:16PM | 0 recs

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