by Progressive America, Wed Nov 07, 2007 at 11:39:42 AM EST
Just a quick diary on the latest Rasmussen numbers (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_2008__1/daily_p residential_tracking_polling_history). Over the last week Hillary has been sinking in the Rasmussen daily tracking poll. Now she has dropped below 40% for the first time since September. The question is, how much farther will her numbers fall? She's already gone from 49% on the 22nd October to 39%, where she now stands, or in other words a 10% drop in 15 days. In the last four days alone, she's dropped 1% each day. Because it's a 4-day tracking poll, we'll have to wait to see if the drop in support is correct and even continues or if it's a short blip. In the best of circumstances, however, it would put her at 41-42% support, which is why I think it's fair to post this.
For Obama, it looks like he has remained stable over the last couple of weeks at around 20-22% with no major changes.
Meanwhile, John Edwards earns his highest level of support since September. He now earns 16% support from national voters and has gradually been increasing over the last week. Some people were saying if Edwards takes on Hillary's record, his numbers would fall. Apparently that hasn't happened, according to data from several polls, including the new Rasmussen New Hampshire poll, which puts Edwards at 15%, his highest level ever in a Rasmussen poll there. So it would seem these numbers would legitimize the current campaign strategy. Hillary is losing support, while Edwards is seeing slight pickups with Obama remaining stable. If Edward's support is going to remain the same or see a gain while Hillary falls, then it would legitimize continuing taking on her "double talk" record.
In general, I would point out that the national polls are meaningless, however this does seem to confirm the fallout Hillary is seeing after the "double talk" moment and the changes in the latest New Hampshire and Iowa polls. We now have a race guys.