Concord Monitor: Edwards is Seabiscuit in New Hampshire

While other candidates were busy speaking to their choirs at the Dinner's Club, Edwards began his final grassroots push in New Hampshire, answering questions and speaking with voters. Yesterday he held three events, all with large crowds, and the campaign will hold several more rallies, house parties, and canvassing kickoff events today before Edwards takes part in the New Hampshire debate tonight. Yes, John and Elizabeth are still fighting hard for our cause and we should continue to fight on too. There is a lot of goods news coming from NH, from new polling numbers, large crowds, undecided voters going to Edwards, SEIU and union support, and record fundraising. The campaign is also beginning to make major distinctions with Obama.

The Concord Monitor gives a fair and very positive overview of Edwards' events from yesterday and how the campaign is going forward. I highly recommend reading the whole thing, it gave me a boost reading it.

Firstly, Edwards embraces the idea of being Seabiscuit.

He painted himself as the rough-and-tumble fighter - not the candidate with money or with "glitz," but the one with gritty resolve who can "galvanize America to this cause" of fighting corporate power.

By afternoon, he had embraced the metaphor that his wife, Elizabeth, had introduced in the morning of Edwards as Seabiscuit, the race horse of the 1930s who started his career with a losing record and became a champion.

"Seabiscuit was the horse of the working class, owned by a bicycle repairman and ridden by someone who wasn't supposed to make it," Edwards said to a crowd of about 350 at the Radisson Hotel in Nashua.

Later, during a speech to a standing-room only crowd of at least 550 at Portsmouth's Frank Jones conference center, he used a different analogy.

Wow, 550 people. That's more than he was even getting at most events in Iowa and must be one of his largest crowds ever in New Hampshire. I'm telling you, I think the other campaigns are really going to be surprised next Tuesday. I like this idea of being portrayed as Seabiscuit, so that way if we do well it will have even more of an effect after NH. It's a very positive meme and doesn't do anything but help us.

"New Hampshire knows what it's like to be the underdog and to run against a team from New York with all the money in the world," he said.

He said he likes being the underdog.

"I embrace it," he said. "I'm ready for this battle."


The last event of the night, for which he skipped the Democratic Party's 100 Club dinner, was his strongest of the day. The crowd listened with quiet attention as he talked about loosening the "iron grip" that corporate power has on the United States.

"We're going to rise up as a people and say, 'Enough is enough,' " he said.

That's right. No more compromises, no more negotiation. Enough is enough, let's end the power that big business has on this country and take it back for ourselves.

There are more distinctions with Obama and the campaign is starting to make them clear.

He [David Bonior] said Edwards differs from Obama on three major points: Edwards opposes building more nuclear power. His health care plan includes a mandate that would cover everyone. And he opposes trade deals in the spirit of the North American Free Trade Act.

Very good job by Bonior. New Hampshire is very much opposed to nuclear power and Edwards shares that opinion. I hope Edwards can make that distinction with Obama very clear during the debate. No more nuclear power plants. It's time to stop them, so we can have a healthy and renewable energy economy.

The trade difference is also a good one. While Hillary and Obama were supporting various trade deals, Edwards was openly opposing them. He also has campaigned all across the country for increases in the minimum wage and is still calling for a $9.50 living wage, easier and better bargaining rights for workers, and economic policies that will benefit all of us, like his universal health care plan and investment packages.

At the Portsmouth event, Edwards faced some of the toughest questions he has heard in New Hampshire in recent months. He was asked about immigration, human rights abuses in China, abortion and why the media perceives him as the angry candidate.

To the latter, Edwards said presidents like Teddy Roosevelt and Harry Truman were likely called angry.

"But they weren't," he said. "They were just strong."

I think it's another terrific respose by Edwards. We all really know why the media is calling him angry. Anytime they see someone like Roosevelt or Truman that threaten the establishment they know they are in trouble. Edwards is strong, not angry. He's strong for us and he's going to fight for us.

He convinced some voters at the event, which I think was a lot more than anyone convinced at that supporter media show event the others went to. Actually 550 people showed up to the Edwards event, which Edwards had to himself, and I think also had a lot more undecideds than the dinner.

Debbie Goldfarb, 57, of Portsmouth said she came to the event undecided and left feeling sure about Edwards, particularly after hearing him say government shouldn't tell a women what to do with her body, regarding abortion.

"He's the only one who's had the nerve to say it how I feel it," she said.

This is something a lot of voters don't know about Edwards. He is the best on women's issues, he's the best on young people's issues, on environental and health care policy, and the list goes on and on. Edwards is a true progressive and if voters inform themselves before voting, I think Edwards will do very well in New Hampshire, because his views are very well suited for the state.

Even before this last push, there are signs that Edwards' message is catching on. From the latest Zogby tracking poll, taken before the Iowa results:

Clinton: 32%
Obama: 26%
Edwards: 20%

This is a very good place to start off, as we're not far away from either Hillary or Obama. I have to imagine Hillary's support is going to drop a bit and undecideds will break heavily for Obama and Edwards, so there is definitely a good chance Edwards could surpass her. Luckily, we are in the backseat now, we're the underdogs. Any kind of good performance Edwards gets in NH is going to be shocking to the media and would make headlines, so we're in a very good position right now. If we're really lucky, Hillary and Obama might even tear themselves apart, allowing Edwards to sneak up on both of them.

If fundraising numbers mean anything, then we definitely have momentum.

"We have been absolutely overwhelmed by the response to Sen. Edwards' strong finish in Iowa," said Edwards' senior strategist Joe Trippi. "We're on track for our best online fundraising day ever, since went up a year ago - and half of the contributions we're seeing are from new donors to the campaign. That speaks volumes to the strength of John Edwards' message of standing up and fighting for the middle class."

Half of the contributions were from first-time donors and 93% were less than $100. That's pretty impressive people movement.

The SEIU and other unions are also lending support.

Edwards also remains well positioned to compete in his home state of South Carolina - which he won in 2004 by 15 percentage points. And to help Edwards compete in the February 5th states, last night the coalition of 12 SEIU state councils that have endorsed Edwards announced they would spend an additional $1.5 million on communication and voter turnout among the more than 750,000 SEIU members in those states.

Much of their support will be in the form of convassing and GOTV from the New Hampshire and Massachussetts SEIU, which both endorsed Edwards locally in those states. It's going to be a big boost to counter the money for paid staff coming from the other campaigns. It's also good to have local workers campaigning on Edwards' behalf.

Some of this canvassing for the Edwards campaign will begin today. Long-time progressive activist Ben Cohen from the Ben and Jerry Ice Cream chain, will be lending his help in Lebanon. Edwards, meanwhile, will kickoff convassing in Portsmouth. Both events will be at 9:00 AM. It looks to be a very busy day for volunteers, staff, Ben Cohen, Elizabeth, and John. Here's the schedule.

Canvass Kickoff with John Edwards
Portsmouth, Jan 5th, 9:00 AM

Canvass Kickoff with Ben Cohen
Lebanon, Jan 5th, 9:00 AM

Rally with John Edwards
Concord, Jan 5th, 10:15 AM

House Party with Elizabeth
Derry, Jan 5th, 12:30 PM

Town Hall with John Edwards
Lebanon, Jan 5th, 1:15 PM

House Party with Elizabeth
Peterborough, Jan 5th, 3:00 PM

ABC Debate
9:00 PM

Just four candidates will be at the debate, so it will give John a great opportunity to give his uplifting progressive message and allow it to contrast with the manipulative work going on in the other campaigns about their records and use of talking points that hide the truth.

Let's keep the momentum going!

[Donate ibute/form] to the campaign. If we contribute, we keep our voices going.

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Time: Edwards a Winner, Campaign Continues on Strong to NH

In Iowa, voters chose change by an overwhelming majority. Edwards turned out 70,000 caucusgoers, 30,000 more than the campaign expected. The pundits predicted a high turnout would put Edwards in 3rd. They told us this for weeks, so it must have been true. But they were proven wrong again. With his progressive call for change and standing up for everyone in this country against the powerful well-financed interests in Washington, Edwards rallied thousands of first-time and repeat caucusgoers to come out and caucus for him. He finished second for the young vote, above expectations, and second for the independent vote, which will also be important in New Hampshire.

Time has an interesting article on this perspective, that Edwards is also a winner and the real battle will now be between Obama and Edwards.

John Edwards went into the Iowa caucuses last night a fighter and he emerges from them as scrappy as ever. In other words, don't assume, because he lost to Barack Obama, that Edwards is down for the count. After all, as his campaign advisers are quick to point out, by finishing second Edwards's David can claim victory over at least one Goliath. "The person hurt in all this is Hillary Clinton," Joe Trippi, an Edwards senior advisor, told TIME minutes after his candidate claimed the silver medal in Des Moines. "The former president of the United States flew all around this state and so did she. They outspent us three-to-one at least. And we beat her."


His aides, though, argue that his victory over Clinton, who has also raised over $100 million, shows his message is resonating despite his comparatively thin wallet. In Iowa he was limited to spending $1.5 million, though he benefited from spending by supportive unions and privately funded outside groups that ran television commercials on his behalf. "I have to be honest, I didn't think with a turn out of more than 200,000 that we'd be where we are in this thing," Trippi said. "We only had 42,000 hard count [i.e., committed voters], so to go from 42,000 to 65,000 or 70,000 -- the message had to have been so strong that people got up out of their homes and went to a caucus without the campaign getting them there. Now the campaign that everyone thought was going to happen to or knew that was going to happen to was the Obama campaign, but it turns out that there were two of those campaigns." To be sure, Trippi was spinning the best-possible story for his candidate. But it is certainly true that a large turnout was expected, by many observers, to do more damage to Edwards' chances than to Clinton's.

Even as Edwards was speaking last night, member states of the Service Employees International Union that have endorsed Edwards were sending out a press release claiming victory out of second place and laying out their strategy to work for him in the upcoming contests. And you can be sure the same outside groups that helped Edwards in Iowa will appear in New Hampshire. Still, the tidal wave that Edwards' spoke of, at least for tonight, is not his own. It will take another tidal wave for Edwards to wrest the mantle of change -- and a victory -- from Obama.

So the campaign continues on strong to New Hampshire. In fact, I don't know how he does it, but Edwards is holding a rally at 6:15 AM in Manchester upon his arival. Please let's make this guy our next President. I have been absolutely amazed by the energy and passion Edwards has put into this campaign and the issues facing America. He cares so deeply about fighting for us and on the sake of our behalf to return America to the people it belongs to, all of us. It's time the working people have a voice. On this front, I think there is no doubt Edwards has done a terrific job on pushing the party back to its base. He's led on universal health care coverage, a strong plan to take on climate change, and a plan to get our of Iraq. He's also led on how we get any of this change: by taking down the corporate barriers blocking it.

As the campaign continues on in New Hampshire voters will have to make a decision between two candidates of "change." There are many big differences though. On our future, Edwards will make no compromises with big business. John Edwards will never sit at a table and negotiate with the major health care company that would deny a liver transplant to a 17-year old girl. He will never sit at a table with the major trade industries when drafting or changing bad trade policy. He will not listen to oil or auto companies when he is considering legislation for a new energy policy. And rightfully so.

That's what we need from our candidate. No Compromises, No Negotiating. Why is it so difficult for the other candidates to adopt this position? It's what the American people want. Big Business has never played nice to us. They've never showed anything but greed to the American people. It's time we reject them and look for a new wave of change in government. John Edwards is showing the leadership to take them on and when he is viewed up personally the momentum will continue.

On the politics side, going into New Hampshire now, we simply need to beat the expectations game. Another second place finish would certainly do exactly that. If looking at history tells us anything, then Edwards will get a bit of a bounce heading into NH. The latest polling shows us at around 20-21% there. Hillary should also see a bit of a fall according to history. This gives us a very good opportunity to surprise everyone. And with a campaigner like Edwards and dedicated supporters like the Steelworkers and the SEIU, who each worked so hard in Iowa, I believe we can do it.

Edwards sure will be working hard for a strong finish.

Upcoming events:

Jan 4th 6:15 AM
Manchester, NH

I hope he and Elizabeth get some sleep!

Organizing Convention
Jan 4th 2:00 PM
Nashua, NH

Jan 4th 6:30 PM
Portsmouth, NH

Ben Cohen from Ben & Jerry's Ice Cream will also be helping out with canvassing and campaigning fo Edwards. I'm sure several more events will added to the schedule for the last couple of days as well once they get in New Hampshire. There is a superb team of staff and volunteers working for the campaign and I think he's going to do well.

Also, there will be a very important debate going on Saturday on ABC at 7 PM.

Let's keep this momentum going! It starts in two hours!

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IA: Edwards to Win Iowa Caucuses

Insider Advantage, which correctly predicted the 2004 Iowa caucus results, is predicting Edwards will win Iowa this year.

Here is their final polling after second choices are added in:

Edwards: 41%
Clinton: 34%
Obama: 25%

Much of these results depends on Richardson, Dodd, and Biden not becoming viable in many precints.

Here's some of what they had to say.

"What many who look at the Iowa Democratic Caucus may miss is that its delegates are apportioned much like the old "county unit system" once used in Southern states. This gives rural areas, where Edwards is running strong, the opportunity to have a disproportionately significant impact on the ultimate outcome.

"Regardless of geographic areas of support, the Edwards `second choice' percentage has remained well over 50% since we first released a second-choice survey in early December," he said. As a follow-up to that earlier survey, InsiderAdvantage has polled the race every night since Dec. 26.  

"The overall trend lines have changed very little over the last several days," Towery said. "Generally, every night shows Clinton with a slight lead, Obama losing steam, and Edwards hanging in close to Clinton. Moreover, the trends show that Edwards consistently is the second choice of those whose first choice candidate is below 15%.

Edwards is likely to gain very much from the fact that delegates in rural areas will give Edwards a larger share of the vote than entrance polls would suggest. It doesn't matter how much Obama increases turnout, if it's only in a few counties with a set amount of delegates. Meanwhile, if Obama can spreadout this turnout, then he could benefit. This remains to be seen.

Basically, there are many ways weights can be used showing either candidate winning. Personally, I think Edwards will win with strong support in central Iowa and holding his own in eastern Iowa. He will also benefit from second choices. I also don't believe the DMR poll, which predicts massive turnout and 45% independent/Republican voters.

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Florida State Senate Part 2: The Swing Districts

This is Part 2 on a series focusing on the Florida State Senate and our efforts to take back the chamber. In Part 1 of the series, the current state of the Florida Senate was discussed, districts were put in categories based on Democratic strength, and our chances of picking up seats in those various categories was discussed.

Part 2 will focus on the "swing" or Category 4 districts for which elections will be held in 2008. These are districts where Gore took between 47-53% of the vote in 2000. There are four of these such districts that will have elections in 2008. They include the 7th, 11th, 13th, and 25th districts. At this time, it looks like Republican incumbents will be running for re-election in all of them, but this could change, particularly if Bill Young (US FL-10) were to retire from Congress. Two Republicans on this list could conceivably run for that seat.

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Florida State House Numbers Analysis

I was reading Mike Lux's post at Open Left on Congressional districts and why the Democratic caucus votes the way it does when an idea popped in my head. I was thinking why don't we do something like this for the Florida legislature, but instead use it to see how we can take back the legislature.

In this edition, I've compiled the Florida House seats list. Like Lux did with Congress, I put the Florida House seats into seven categories based on Democratic Party performance. Unfortunately good data is not available for 2004 performance on the presidential level in individual state house districts, so I've had to stick with 2000 data, which is provided by the government. Some districts have seen demographic changes, particularly in central and southern Florida, so this list is not going to be completely accurate, but it will give us an idea of what we should be thinking about when we choose what seats we want to go after for the next two cycles.

Let's keep in mind the goal is taking back the Florida House by 2010, so first of all we can have good policies again in our state. On the national level it also might interest outsiders, because if we win a chamber in government, then Democrats would have a say in the redistricting process that will affect the maps of Florida's likely to be 27 Congressional seats for the next decade. It is obviously very important to the Democratic Party both inside the state and on the national level that we succeed in winning one chamber by 2010.

So now let's get on to how we win back the Florida House. Currently as it stands, Republicans hold 78 seats to our 42 seats. That's a 36-seat majority, meaning we need to win 18 seats to move into a tie with Republicans. Luckily we do have two more election cycles to accomplish this task. In 2006, we got off to a good start (if I remember correctly we picked up six seats?). Then in 2007, we built on that momentum, winning the 49th district (Cat. 3) seat in a special election.

2000 Democratic Performance

Statewide: 49 %

Category 1: 70 - 100: 20 districts, 20 D, 0 R

Category 2: 60 - 69: 10 districts, 10 D, 0 R

Category 3: 54 - 59: 5 districts, 5 D, 0 R

Category 4: 47 - 53: 19 districts, 5 D, 13 R

Category 5: 41 - 46: 40 districts, 1 D, 40 R

Category 6: 31 - 40: 19 districts, 1 D, 18 R

Category 7: 0 - 30: 7 districts, 0 D, 7 R

From this data we can see that as Democrats we already have the odds stacked against us. Despite having a 49 - 49 % split in the 2000 elections, the Republicans gerrymandered the districts to give a 66 - 35 district lean advantage to the Republicans, with 19 tossup districts in the middle. Even if we carry every tossup district, that still gives us only 54 seats. So to get to the magic 60 number, giving us 50% of seats, we must win an additional 6 seats from the lean Republican categories (We already have two of these, so four more), assuming we win every tossup and every lean-Democratic district. At the moment, we do hold every lean-Democratic district, but we only hold 5 of the 18 tossup districts. We hold two Republican favored districts, one in a 38% and the other in a 44% Democratic performing district. We therefore need to win at least four more of the Republican favored districts and for every district we don't win in Category 4, we will need to win additional ones in Category 5.

From this I would say a central part of our strategy should definitely be going after those tossup districts. We really must win quite a few of those if we want to win back the House. It also should be noted that Democrats performed quite well actually in several of the Category 5 districts in 2006. We actually won the 107th district in 2006 and two of our four closest losses were from the 48th and 70th districts, where we captured 48 % and 49 % of the votes, whereas Gore pulled in only 45 % and 43 % in those districts, respectively. I'm not going to speculate on the possible causes of this movement here, though it could be any sort of things (good candidates, demographic changes, bad Republicans, statewide sentiment, etc...). The main good news though is that many Cat. 5 districts are certainly within reach for Democrats.

Another thing we should look at going into 2008 and 2010 are seats that will open up due to term limits. I looked at this particularly for the tossup districts. In 2008, we will see four open seats, one currently held by a Democrat and three by Republicans. In 2010, there will be five open contests, all seats currently held by Republicans. This gives us eight golden opportunities to pick up seats over the next two election periods. Like with the case for lean-Republican districts, just because a seat is not open does not mean Democrats are not able to compete. In 2006, the Democratic candidate captured 49% of the vote in the 83rd district against a Republican incumbent running for a 3rd term in office. Of course the open seats probably offer a better chance at victory for Democrats in most cases, but if we compete with a strong candidate and finances, then we can really compete in any of the Category 4/tossup districts and likely some of the Category 5 ones, as well. In particular, there are ten open seats that will be fought for in Cat. 5 districts. There will also be a special election in 2008 in the 38th district, a Cat. 5 district. We may have a chance there, especially given Bob Allen's scandal-ridden resignation that opened this seat up.

Overall, from this data for 2008 I would say we definitely want to take a good look at those three open Republicans seats and look at defending our own. We're also going to have to make a strong effort to win some of the other tossup districts and take a deeper look at several of the Cat. 5 races to see which ones will offer us our best chances of pickups. Remember, demographics have been changing in many of the districts, so those would be the ones to really look at. As an example, we know the 119th district (Cat. 5) where Michael Calderin is running has been growing in independent registration, while Republican registration has been declining most rapidly. Gore took 43 % in the district, but if that election were held again today perhaps that performance would be 45 % or higher. Of course it's difficult to say, but it's something to think about.

Here are the categories with their respective districts and open seats for 2008 are indicated for Categories 4 and 5, where we'll surely be making several of our prime targets in 2008. For information on state house representatives, you can visit the Florida Progressive Coalition's Wiki Page and for information on the district performance see here.

Category 1: 08, 39, 55, 59, 78, 84, 86, 90, 93, 94, 95, 96, 98, 103, 104, 105, 106, 108, 109, 118

Category 2: 14, 15, 23, 27, 58, 88, 89, 92, 99, 100

Category 3: 36, 49, 53, 85, 97

Category 4: 09 (open-D), 22, 26, 28, 35 (open), 44, 45, 46, 50, 51, 52, 65 (open), 69, 81 (open), 83, 87, 91, 101, 120

Category 5: 03, 10 (open), 20, 21 (open), 24, 25 (open), 29, 30, 31 (open), 32 (special election 2008), 33, 34, 37 (open), 38, 40 (open), 41, 42 (open), 43, 47, 48, 54, 56 (open), 57, 60, 61, 63, 64, 66, 68, 70, 71, 72, 73, 79 (open), 80 (open), 82, 107, 114, 116, 119

Category 6: 05, 06, 07, 11, 16, 17, 62, 67, 74, 75, 76, 77, 102, 110, 111, 112, 113, 115, 117

Category 7: 01, 02, 04, 12, 13, 18, 19

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Joe Garcia: Stop the demagoguery about Cuba

In a new ad called "Decades", Joe Garcia, chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party, and the New Democrat Network calls on Republicans to stop the demagoguery on Cuba and act responsibly.

Watch the Ad

If you're not able to listen, the ad shows a man washing his car and listening to hardline Cuban-American talk radio. At the beginning of the ad, we are in 1962. Then it changes to 1979 and finally ends in 2004, with new times and the same man washing his car, but still the same demagoguery from Republicans on the radio.

Enter Joe Garcia: "Enough is enough. There comes a time when we have to act responsibly. I've taken a stand. Will you?"

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Updated: New Iowa, New Hampshire, and SC Poll Numbers

There is a new Iowa poll out from ARG. The poll shows Obama in the lead with 27%, followed closely by Hillary with 25% and Edwards at 23%. The momentum is all Obama and Edwards. s08/iadem8-713.html


Nov 26 - 29
Obama: 27%
Clinton: 25%
Edwards: 23%
Biden: 8%
Richardson: 3%

Nov 10-14
Obama: 21%
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 20%
Biden: 5%
Richardson: 12%

Obama: 22%
Clinton: 32%
Edwards: 15%
Biden: 5%
Richardson: 7%

33% of likely caucus participants are undecided (8%) or say that they could switch candidates between now and January 3 (25%).
80% of those saying they support Clinton say their support is definite.
57% of those saying they support Edwards say their support is definite.
75% of those saying they support Obama say their support is definite.
Among men, Clinton is at 22%, Edwards 22%, and Obama 30%.
Among women, Clinton is at 28%, Edwards 24%, and Obama 25%.

This is obviously good news for the Obama camp. It also shows momentum for Edwards. He's gone from 15% in October to 20% earlier this month to now 23% support. On the other side of things, I don't see how this could be anything but bad news for Hillary. This poll indicates her slide has continued from earlier this month.

Similar findings were found in the latest Rasmussen poll ( ontent/politics/election_2008__1/2008_pr esidential_election/iowa/democratic_iowa _caucus), which still had Hillary in the lead but dropping in two consecutive polls.

These polls also appear to be bad news for Richardson. Whatever momentum he gained earlier now appears to be gone. Biden, meanwhile, does seem to be making gains, so it would be interesting to speculate where his supporters will go for their second choices.

Update [2007-11-30 12:29:48 by Progressive America]: New New Hampshire numbers too. Clinton: 34% Obama: 23% Edwards: 17% Richardson: 10% This is the highest Edwards has ever performed in a New Hampshire poll in the last few months if my memory is right. For the last couple of months, Edwards has been gradually moving up in New Hampshire and now with an Iowa win, it's more likely he could also take New Hampshire too. Also, South Carolina numbers from ARG. Clinton: 45% Obama: 21% Edwards: 12%

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Joe Garcia: "The Netroots are the courage of our Party"

Florida Progressive Radio, with Kenneth and Alison, focused their show today on the Draft Joe Garcia movement. Joe Garcia, Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chair, joined in on the show, as well as Michael Calderin, candidate for the 119th district Florida House seat. I was also on the show, it was my first time ever doing any kind of radio or tv interview, so I was a bit nervous, but got through it.

You can listen to the show here.

In the radio show Joe talks about the new grassroots movement taking place in America. Here's some of what he said to say, with a bit of paraphrasing:

"Democrats talk in a much more horizontal matter [than the Republicans]...we're talking about an open format, where the debate amongst us is going to get us to a better place.

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FL-25: Enough of Mario Already, Ask Joe to Get In!

Over the weekend, people have been talking, activists have been working, and momentum has been building. Now it's time to act.

It all started a few weeks ago. Joe Garcia, who serves as Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chairman and Cuban American National Foundation Executive Director (as well as a host of other activities), was interviewed by The Hill. In the interview, he said he would consider running for Congress in the 25th district, if he was asked to.

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Updated (New ARG Numbers Too!) Iowa: Edwards 26%, Obama 26%, Hillary 26%

Here are the latest Rasmussen Iowa Caucus numbers, just released: ontent/politics/election_2008__1/2008_pr esidential_election/iowa/democratic_iowa _caucus

Likely Democratic Caucus Participants (November 12th)

Clinton: 29%
Edwards: 25%
Obama: 24%
Richardson: 10%
Biden: 3%
Other: 3%

Certain Caucus Participants

Clinton: 26%
Edwards: 26%
Obama: 26%


Edwards: 84%
Obama: 81%
Clinton: 79%

For trends, this was the same poll a month ago:

Likely Democratic Caucus Participants (Mid-October)

Clinton: 33%
Edwards: 22%
Obama: 21%
Richardson: 7%

Basically, Hillary has lost 4% support, while Edwards, Obama, and Richardson have each picked up 3%. And that's right, there is a three-way tie with "certain" caucus participants, meaning this poll found that Hillary's supporters are the least likely to attend the caucuses.

I think the trends speak for themselves. And these polls don't even include the latest double talk by Hillary by again changing her position on driver's licenses.

Also, so much for the theory that Edwards would tumble for pointing out Hillary's double talk, War-hawkishness, and corporate record. Edwards is viewed most favorably by Iowans, who I'm sure have been paying much closer attention to recent events than the nation as a whole.

Finally, the poll indicates most voters may change their minds before the caucuses, so this race is likely going to be what we always knew it would be, a dead heat until the end.

Update [2007-11-15 11:3:12 by Progressive America]: American Research Group Poll From 10/26-10/29 Hillary: 32% Obama: 22% Edwards: 15% Now 11/10-11/14 Hillary: 27% Obama: 21% Edwards: 20% ARG has always given bad poll numbers for Edwards in Iowa, so the fact that even they are showing this gain in momentum (5 points) is something. Meanwhile, Hillary has also lose 5% in the ARG poll.

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