Ode to Teflon Man

Teflon Man

What if I told you there once was a Teflon man who ran for president
A man against whom everything was thrown,
A Rezko, a Wright, and even a Bittergate.
Would you believe me if I told you nothing stuck?

What if I told you there once was a Teflon man who ran for president
A man who was called all sorts of name
An empty suit, an elitist, and even a race baiter.
Would you believe me if I told you nothing stuck?

What if I told you there once was a Teflon man who ran for president
A man who was continually being written off:
Empty suit will go nowhere, Rezko is the big one, Wright is the end of him, bittergate now that will do him in, elitist - this one goes to his Achilles heal
Would you believe me if I told you nothing stuck?

What if I told you there once was a man who ran for president.
What if I told you the man was made of Teflon
Would you believe me?

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Another look at polling outfits

Not to pick on SurvayUSA, But I generally don't put too much stock in these polls. So, considering that SurveyUSA is considered the most accurate, I thought I'd look at how they've performed so far. Basically, I've listed the difference between SurveyUSA's poll and the actual result. -4.5 in Texas means SurveyUSA predicted a +1 Obama win and Hillary won by +3.5. 0 in Ohio mean SUSA was dead on (or close to it since I do some rounding). I general, I think they are doing a great job--although I won't think twice before betting.

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Updated Superdelegate trend (w/ figure)

As must have occurred to anyone who has been following the Democratic nomination, superdelegates are going to play an important role in this year's nomination. I have been keeping track of superdelegates for Clinton and Obama. The figure bellows shows the total number of superdelegates for each candidate and how that figure has changed over time.

I thought about commenting on trends but decided against it. Like everything else in this race, there are, am sure, different ways of interpreting the data and depending on the candidate you support - at least for most people - your interpretation of the trends will be colored by that support. Therefore, I'm posting the figure and inviting you all to enjoy. In any case, the figure speaks for itself -so to speak.


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Solution to the superdelegate mess--borrowing from SCOTUS

Perhaps I can propose another solution for the superdelegate problem. The superdelegates should borrow from the Supreme Court. Lawyers and Law Students will probably recognize the words "Caroline Products  Footnote 4". yes, we lawyers like to dabble in such seemingly mundane pieces of information such as footnotes. What seemed like an innocent enough footnote has become the basis for a significant part of constitutional theory called the Caroline Products Theory, Political Process Theory, etc--at least this is what I was thought in law school.

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Funding PA School projects - the PA challenge

It appears more Obama supporters have taken up Stephen Colbert's challenge to help fund Pennsylvania classroom projects with a lot more interest, judged by donations, than Clinton's supporters. (See Colbert push the challenge here http://www.comedycentral.com/colbertrepo rt/videos.jhtml?videoId=164383)

Basically, the challenge asks Obama and Clinton supporters to make donations to fund school projects in PA in the name of their candidate.  Supporters of each candidate are being asked to donate a total of $66,001. As of noon-ish today (3/24), nearly nine-hundred Obama's supporters have donated a total of $58,287, impacting 9789 students. Nearly one-hundred Hillary's supporters have donated $11,699, impacting 1744 students. The average donation for an Obama supporter is ~$64 compared to ~$124 for a Clinton supporter.

Supporters of senators Obama and Clinton who have contributed to this worthy cause aught to be commended. This is at least one good outcome of this extended nomination process

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Obama speech response preview (w/ poll)

According to reliable sources, DailyKos and myDD are going to split on whether Obama's speech is successful or not. My insiders tell me that the diarists at myDD will argue that Obama totally failed to convince anyone of anything, that he is a liar, and he is therefore unfit to be president. They will follow with a call for all to support Hillary.

At dKos, the authors will take the other side. I hear a glowing diary delving into the wondrousness of Obama's speech is already being penned over at Kos. This diary will be published a few minutes after the speech and will explain how wonderful the speech was, highlight Obama's great ability to convey important issues and generally call for a rally around Team Obama. The is a possibility that the diary will included references to math and how Hillary cannot win the nomination or that information will be included in a followup diary. I'm waiting on my source to confirm this bit.

Now, don't get my wrong. It is possible that my sources are wrong so don't quote me on this. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

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Help make a difference for Team Obama

Help Team Obama win Wyoming. Don't be lulled into a false sense of security. Hillary is competing in Wyoming and Mississippi. No longer is she giving up on small (or "insignificant") states. She has been in Wyoming and Mississippi during the last few days and so has Chelsea and Bill.

Also, Team Obama's get out the vote effort for this weekend will be frustrated because of yesterday's freezing rain / snow in parts of Mississippi. As some of you may know, any snow in is South can cause serious problems--at times, it can cause problems for several days.

So, today, please pick up the phone and call for our Team

Call Wyoming
http://my.barackobama.com/page/contact/s plash/callwyoming

And also, please take some time to call Mississippi
http://my.barackobama.com/page/contact/s plash/callms

Thanks!
Go Team!

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[updated] (with chart) More superdelegates joining team Obama this week

[Updated] Superdelegates keep joining Team Obama. Granted this is not the 50 superdelegates we've all heard discussed around here. However, it shows that the trend, despite tuesday night's results, are still toward Obama--at least in terms of superdelegates, which, according to many people around here, is what matters.

Supers who have joined this week:

Ian Carleton (VT) 3-4-08
 Link

Carol Fowler (SC) 3-4-08
 Link

Roy LaVerne Brooks(TX) 3-4-08
 Link

Mary Long (GA) 3-4-08
 Link

Rhine McLin (OH) 3-5-08
Link

Jane Kidd (GA) 3-5-08
 Link

Darlena Williams-Burnett (IL) 3-5-08
 Link

Connie Thurman(IN) 3-6-08
 Link

Nick Rahall (WV) 3-6-08
 Link

Teresa Benitez-Thompson(NV) 3-6-08
 Link

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Two superdelegates join team Obama

Today, so far, two superdelegates have announced they are joining Team Obama. Granted this is not the 50 superdelegates we've all heard discussed around here. However, it shows that the trend, despite last night's results, are still toward Obama--at least in terms of superdelegates, which, according to many people around here, is what matters.

The two superdelegates are Dayton Mayor Rhine McLin (Obama won her county by huge margins) and Jane Kidd (Georgia Democratic Party chairwoman)

Here are links:

Mayor McLin Link Jane Kidd Link

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Diaries

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