Great post, RD. I like your statement that the middle class has, in effect, always been an artifical creation of government policy. When "free" enterprise gets too free, the middle class disappears and all that is left is a population that consists of a few ultra-wealthy plutocrats, with the remaining 98 or 99 percent of the citzenry living in abject poverty. I know, this scenario has been the GOP's goal and dream for the last 30 years. I am hoping that maybe we as a nation can now begin to slowly turn things around, and hopefully tip the balance back toward workers and middle class people. It is certainly a change in direction that is long, long overdue.
I think Huck and Palin appealed to essentially the same voters: the hard-core base. Just look where Huck actually won primaries: states of the deep South, Appalachia, and a few scattered pockets of the Plains--precisely the only areas where McCain won. Huck didn't have the "newness" of Palin, and he wouldn't have turned on the old (white) men of the party the way Palin did(does).True, Huck doesn't have some of Palin's liabilities, but to the base she flaunts other assets that more than compensate for this. In the end, I think the results here would have been close to the same, with maybe a few minor differences in demographic composition of the vote.
Actually, I think the fact that Romney was a former CEO might have worked against him, rather than for him. He might have been viewed as part of the greedy Wall-Street insider crowd that caused the melt-down in the first place. It's hard to say though, your argument for his economic credentials being a strength rather than a liability is certainly a plausible one.
I don't believe that Romney would have been nearly so gaffe- and mistake- prone as McCain, and this would have made Obama's job tougher. And also remember, the pick of Palin was viewed as brilliant at first. It wasn't until those "moose in the headlights" looks in her interviews that her weakness as a VP candidate was ultimately revealed. But, as a base pick, she was very successful. I guess what I'm trying to say here is, with a different candidate choosing a different running mate, it could be that other states may have been in play, which would have possibly changed some of the dynamics of the race. With Romney, for example, Michigan and Florida may have been much tougher for Obama; on the other hand, a state like Georgia might have been somewhat easier for Obama to win with Romney at the top of the ticket. One other point: I do believe Romney would have made a more thoughtful choice for VP than McCain did.
In the end, they would both be losers. Fortunately for Obama, the economic crisis and Palin turned what could have been a fairly close election into a landslide.
Amazing, ONLY 3 in 10 Republicans view Gov. Palin as unprepared. I think they are going to be a minority party for a long time... and with views like this, after next Tuesday, they will also be a minor party for a good long while.
I guess there comes a point in time during a losing campaign when you've gotta just stand and fight, regardless of how hopeless it looks. As election day draws closer and closer, there are only so many states that McCain can pull out of, and still have any hope of winning. At this point, if he pulled the plug on all the states he is lagging behind in, he would only be playing for about 185 electoral votes. That isn't going to get the job done; so I suspect that is what we are seeing here. McCain is down in so many places now, his dart board is about as good a strategy-maker as anything. And so the noose gets a little tighter....
Not so fast here. I think Palin puts both MI and NH out of reach for McCain, the only two Kerry states that I feel McCain had a realistic shot at poaching. When you combine that with IA and NM, where Obama is doing very well, Obama is at 264. All of the following are in play, with what I believe is a slight lean in Obama's direction: CO, VA, NV. OH seems to still be in play, but I am not sure how big the "Appalachia effect" is, and if Obama can overcome it. FL is a question mark, but does seem to lean McCain. I also think MO is off the table, it will go for McCain.
The map is indeed shrinking, but this thing is nowhere near being in the bag for either of these guys at this point.
If McCain is really and truly ahead by 10 in Ohio, we don't have to worry about polling in Florida or any other state, for that matter--McCain will win in November by an electoral landslide.I don't believe for a minute that McCain
has a 10-point lead in any REAL battleground state, much less Ohio. Then again, neither does Obama, at least, not at this point. Obama ahead by one in FL? It does seem more plausable than the OH poll, but still...not while trailing by 10 in OH at the same time. I think these polls contradict one another; we WON'T see this kind of result come election day. Also, as others have stated, I feel most of these early state polls shouldn't be taken too seriously. This is the political silly season,after all, and we will know more of what is really out there come September.
There is some very good analysis here. The firewall can only be moved so many times, before one loses all credibility. And in a campaign as close as this one is, credibility and perception are critically important.
For my own part, I am not paying too much attention to those OH and TX polls-yet. In MO, Clinton had a 20+ point lead until just a few days before the primary. Then, it vanished.There is obviously a lot of fluidity in this race.
I would also like to say that it is hard to see how Clinton can win the nomination without BIG wins in BOTH TX and OH. I can only imagine the wave of panic that the Clinton camp experienced when that ARG poll hit a day or two ago that showed Obama up by 7 in TX. Now, personally I have a hard time accepting this, and I am sure there was a hearty round of scoffing by the Clinton people as well. But still...what if it is really this close? I am going to keep tuned in, this is going to be really interesting...!
TX and OH are shaping up to be MUST WIN states for Clinton. She can get away with a string of big losses in Febuary with wins in these states. The big question is, what effect will a poor Febuary have on her standing in these states? Her national poll leads? It is hard to see making a strong case for her candidicy if she is swept (again) on March 4. What about a split decision on March 4? Ah, so many questions, so few answers...still, if she is leading in national polls at this point, it is hard to see her conceding, even with losses on March 4. Then again, with a string of losses that long, it is hard to envision her still leading in national polls. Polls with Obama I mean, not the (at this point) meaningless ones with Mc Cain. We have some interesting times yet ahead, and right now I would be surprised if this thing is settled on March 4.
Steve M has it right here, Mc Cain 2008 is NOT Mc Cain 2000. Right now, he is the "maverick" in places with high numbers of independents, and in "Red" states he is the hard-line right-winger. The Dems should have no problems tearing him to shreds by simply not allowing him to enjoy his dual status in a head-to-head match-up. I agree, I think his age (and hot temper) will be real detractions in the all-out campaign ahead. That said, though, I don't think Clinton or Obama will win a landslide, and it will take focus and perserverance to insure defeating this guy.
I keep reading that Guilani is the GOP's best shot at defeating Clinton, and that the evangelical wing of the GOP cannot stop his nomination. This all may be true; however, these same pundits also say that evangelicals will(should) just shut up and quit whining, and vote for Rudi.All this talk of a third party candidate is just bluff and bluster, they say, and that in the end evangelicals will flock to Rudi. This is where I take issue with the analysis; I live in the buckle of the Bible belt, and I can assure you that evangelicals will NOT flock to Rudi. Certainly, lots of them will vote for him, but many will not; they will stay home, or vote third party. What these "expert" GOP pundits are forgetting is the fact that it takes evangelicals voting as a near monolithic bloc--and in high numbers--to elect a GOP candidate to the White House. Rudi will achieve majority support with this group, no doubt, but enthusiasm and large numbers will not be decidedly lacking. This spells doom for any GOP candidate.
Mose, I tend to agree with your analysis. Living here in the buckle of the Bible Belt (SW MO), I can say from first-hand knowledge that there are large numbers of Conservative Christian types that will NOT vote for Rudy under ANY circumstances. The GOP is under some delusion that the social issue crowd will somehow be forced to vote for Rudy. Believe it or not, social issues are much more important to these people than simply electing a Republican to the White House. Talk of a third-party, far-right candidate does not surprise me at all; in fact I fully expect this scenario if Rudy is nominated. And as we all know, if this happens the GOP candidate has NO CHANCE of being elected, no matter who that candidate may be.
My wife and I went and voted this morning at our local precinct here in SW MO, and I can honestly say turnout seemed heavier than usual for a mid-term--it "felt" like a presidential year, and many of the poll workers felt the same way.
Other "feelings", for what they are worth, from here in MO: I think McCaskill is going to win. Talent bringing Bush to Springfield was a last-ditch, "I-have-nothing-to-lose" move of desparation. Watch early returns from SW MO; McCaskill needs to poll between 40 and 45 percent here for a reasonable shot at winning. I think she is there.
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Great post, RD. I like your statement that the middle class has, in effect, always been an artifical creation of government policy. When "free" enterprise gets too free, the middle class disappears and all that is left is a population that consists of a few ultra-wealthy plutocrats, with the remaining 98 or 99 percent of the citzenry living in abject poverty. I know, this scenario has been the GOP's goal and dream for the last 30 years. I am hoping that maybe we as a nation can now begin to slowly turn things around, and hopefully tip the balance back toward workers and middle class people. It is certainly a change in direction that is long, long overdue.
I think Huck and Palin appealed to essentially the same voters: the hard-core base. Just look where Huck actually won primaries: states of the deep South, Appalachia, and a few scattered pockets of the Plains--precisely the only areas where McCain won. Huck didn't have the "newness" of Palin, and he wouldn't have turned on the old (white) men of the party the way Palin did(does).True, Huck doesn't have some of Palin's liabilities, but to the base she flaunts other assets that more than compensate for this. In the end, I think the results here would have been close to the same, with maybe a few minor differences in demographic composition of the vote.
I don't believe that Romney would have been nearly so gaffe- and mistake- prone as McCain, and this would have made Obama's job tougher. And also remember, the pick of Palin was viewed as brilliant at first. It wasn't until those "moose in the headlights" looks in her interviews that her weakness as a VP candidate was ultimately revealed. But, as a base pick, she was very successful. I guess what I'm trying to say here is, with a different candidate choosing a different running mate, it could be that other states may have been in play, which would have possibly changed some of the dynamics of the race. With Romney, for example, Michigan and Florida may have been much tougher for Obama; on the other hand, a state like Georgia might have been somewhat easier for Obama to win with Romney at the top of the ticket. One other point: I do believe Romney would have made a more thoughtful choice for VP than McCain did.
In the end, they would both be losers. Fortunately for Obama, the economic crisis and Palin turned what could have been a fairly close election into a landslide.
Amazing, ONLY 3 in 10 Republicans view Gov. Palin as unprepared. I think they are going to be a minority party for a long time... and with views like this, after next Tuesday, they will also be a minor party for a good long while.
I guess there comes a point in time during a losing campaign when you've gotta just stand and fight, regardless of how hopeless it looks. As election day draws closer and closer, there are only so many states that McCain can pull out of, and still have any hope of winning. At this point, if he pulled the plug on all the states he is lagging behind in, he would only be playing for about 185 electoral votes. That isn't going to get the job done; so I suspect that is what we are seeing here. McCain is down in so many places now, his dart board is about as good a strategy-maker as anything. And so the noose gets a little tighter....
The map is indeed shrinking, but this thing is nowhere near being in the bag for either of these guys at this point.
And as Democrats said of Goldwater in the '60's, it applies here: "Palin is right....FAR right".
has a 10-point lead in any REAL battleground state, much less Ohio. Then again, neither does Obama, at least, not at this point. Obama ahead by one in FL? It does seem more plausable than the OH poll, but still...not while trailing by 10 in OH at the same time. I think these polls contradict one another; we WON'T see this kind of result come election day. Also, as others have stated, I feel most of these early state polls shouldn't be taken too seriously. This is the political silly season,after all, and we will know more of what is really out there come September.
For my own part, I am not paying too much attention to those OH and TX polls-yet. In MO, Clinton had a 20+ point lead until just a few days before the primary. Then, it vanished.There is obviously a lot of fluidity in this race.
I would also like to say that it is hard to see how Clinton can win the nomination without BIG wins in BOTH TX and OH. I can only imagine the wave of panic that the Clinton camp experienced when that ARG poll hit a day or two ago that showed Obama up by 7 in TX. Now, personally I have a hard time accepting this, and I am sure there was a hearty round of scoffing by the Clinton people as well. But still...what if it is really this close? I am going to keep tuned in, this is going to be really interesting...!
TX and OH are shaping up to be MUST WIN states for Clinton. She can get away with a string of big losses in Febuary with wins in these states. The big question is, what effect will a poor Febuary have on her standing in these states? Her national poll leads? It is hard to see making a strong case for her candidicy if she is swept (again) on March 4. What about a split decision on March 4? Ah, so many questions, so few answers...still, if she is leading in national polls at this point, it is hard to see her conceding, even with losses on March 4. Then again, with a string of losses that long, it is hard to envision her still leading in national polls. Polls with Obama I mean, not the (at this point) meaningless ones with Mc Cain. We have some interesting times yet ahead, and right now I would be surprised if this thing is settled on March 4.
Steve M has it right here, Mc Cain 2008 is NOT Mc Cain 2000. Right now, he is the "maverick" in places with high numbers of independents, and in "Red" states he is the hard-line right-winger. The Dems should have no problems tearing him to shreds by simply not allowing him to enjoy his dual status in a head-to-head match-up. I agree, I think his age (and hot temper) will be real detractions in the all-out campaign ahead. That said, though, I don't think Clinton or Obama will win a landslide, and it will take focus and perserverance to insure defeating this guy.
My second to last sentence should read "...enthusiasm and large numbers will be decidedly lacking."
I keep reading that Guilani is the GOP's best shot at defeating Clinton, and that the evangelical wing of the GOP cannot stop his nomination. This all may be true; however, these same pundits also say that evangelicals will(should) just shut up and quit whining, and vote for Rudi.All this talk of a third party candidate is just bluff and bluster, they say, and that in the end evangelicals will flock to Rudi. This is where I take issue with the analysis; I live in the buckle of the Bible belt, and I can assure you that evangelicals will NOT flock to Rudi. Certainly, lots of them will vote for him, but many will not; they will stay home, or vote third party. What these "expert" GOP pundits are forgetting is the fact that it takes evangelicals voting as a near monolithic bloc--and in high numbers--to elect a GOP candidate to the White House. Rudi will achieve majority support with this group, no doubt, but enthusiasm and large numbers will not be decidedly lacking. This spells doom for any GOP candidate.
Mose, I tend to agree with your analysis. Living here in the buckle of the Bible Belt (SW MO), I can say from first-hand knowledge that there are large numbers of Conservative Christian types that will NOT vote for Rudy under ANY circumstances. The GOP is under some delusion that the social issue crowd will somehow be forced to vote for Rudy. Believe it or not, social issues are much more important to these people than simply electing a Republican to the White House. Talk of a third-party, far-right candidate does not surprise me at all; in fact I fully expect this scenario if Rudy is nominated. And as we all know, if this happens the GOP candidate has NO CHANCE of being elected, no matter who that candidate may be.
Other "feelings", for what they are worth, from here in MO: I think McCaskill is going to win. Talent bringing Bush to Springfield was a last-ditch, "I-have-nothing-to-lose" move of desparation. Watch early returns from SW MO; McCaskill needs to poll between 40 and 45 percent here for a reasonable shot at winning. I think she is there.