Action: Write Real Clear politics

When Obama got a nice bounce from the Democratic convention, Real Clear Politics did not include both the Gallup tracking poll and the USA Today/Gallup poll in their poll average.  Why? Because the USA Today/Gallup poll included the very same poll data. They said that their policy was not to do so.

But now with the post-Republican convention bounce, they are using both.

Please write them (courteously) and ask them why they are employing a double standard:

 John McIntyre: john@realclearpolitics.com
  Tom Bevan: tom@realclearpolitics.com

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Rasmussen: From tie to +4 in one day

Wow -How can you go from a tie to +4 in a four day tracking poll in one night?  Now, that is some bounce!

Rasmussen shows major movement - and that's before taking into account the impact of Obama's speech.

Thursday's tracking poll O 47 -M 47
Friday's tracking poll O 49 - M 45

Chuck Todd said that if Obama could go from 80% Democratic support to 89% Democratic support, he would gain four points. That might have happened - or these new numbers might also include movement from independents and even Republicans.

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Rasmussen: From tie to +4 in one day

Wow -How can you go from a tie to +4 in a four day tracking poll in one night?  Now, that is some bounce!

Rasmussen shows major movement - and that's before taking into account the impact of Obama's speech.

/Thursday's tracking poll/ O 47 -M 47 /Friday's tracking poll/ O 49 - M 45 Chuck Todd said that if Obama could go from 80% Democratic support to 89% Democratic support, he would gain four points. That might have happened - or these new numbers might also include movement from independents and even Republicans.

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What a night - What a convention

Something has changed. Tonight is amazing. I can feel a turn of the tide.

This wouldn't have happened without Michelle's speech on Monday and, most of all, without Hillary's speech yesterday.

But tonight the intensity and quality of speeches have been amazing.  Bill Clinton is still a genius, of rhetoric and of the mastery of policy. Kerry was so strong. And (at the time this diary was written) we still have Biden on deck.

We know what matters, we know what politics is about. It's about our lives, our hopes, our possibilities. It's about the world we live in and the world we want to create.

I wanted earlier to write a diary on the amazing Obama campaign, on their ability to work at a state and local level. And if you want to read some of what I was going to draw from, you can read this: http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump /archive/2008/08/27/the-view-from-plouff e-s-office.aspx

But that can wait until another day to have that discussion.

Tonight let us revel in a belonging to a party that has improved the lives of Americans and that will do more. Let us revel in belonging to a party that can lodge tough policy attacks but will not stoop to the personal and the petty -- but can vigorously criticize when others do so.  Let us revel in belonging to a party that has always sought to involve and empower the people.

Tonight I am so very proud to be a Democrat.

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Gallup: Looks like a convention bounce starting

The new Gallup poll is out and Obama picked up three points, putting him ahead of McCain again, albeit by a narrow margin.

But, more importantly, it looks like the Tuesday number was great. Those reflect what happened on Monday night.  Gallup says, "a convention bounce may be developing.

BTW, the bounce usually does not fully develop until after the convention.

Gallup's official "post-convention bounce" reading on Obama's support will be based on interviewing conducted Friday through Sunday.

But Gallup notes

With the McCain campaign hinting that it will attempt to dampen an Obama bounce with a quick announcement of the Republican vice presidential nominee on Friday, any effect from the Democratic convention may be short-lived.

Personally, I don't see any of the possible vp picks that are talked about a lot helping McCain much, but I guess...we will see.

Meanwhile, let's get ourselves ready to work for Obama. I'm signed up for a one night a week shift and will see if I can do more.  How about you?

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Thank you, Hillary Clinton

Thank you, Hillary!

You did a great job today in telling everyone, that when it comes to McCain putting you in his ads, you do not approve the message - You are great!  

I'm looking forward to you saying more things like this,

   "Let there be no mistake about it, We are united. We are united for change.

   We are, after all, Democrats, so it might take awhile. We're not the fall in line party -- we're diverse, many voices. But make no mistake, we are united. We are united on behalf of the Democratic party, the values we hold dear, the reason we work so hard in politics to make the changes that we know will matter in the lives of hard working Americans and for the future of our children.

   And we are united behind Barack Obama and Joe Biden and we are gong to make sure that we win on November 4th."

   "We are gathered here in Denver for a very clear and simple purpose, and that is to come out of this convention energized, excited and ready to elect Barack Obama the next president of the United States."

And thank you for releasing your delegates. By saying that one's vote is a "personal decision," you've made it clear that those delegates are no longer pledged to vote for you. This especially affects delegates from the ten states that require delegates to stay with their original candidate until they are released by that candidate or until the second ballot.

I salute you, Hillary Clinton!

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Democratic unity and the Biden pick

So, what was the impact on Democratic unity from the Biden pick?

John McCain is certainly betting on it and he's trying to nurse disunity along with an ad saying that Clinton was dissed.  But what do the first polls show?

Gallup found that, among Democrats

21% say they are more likely to vote for Obama as a result of Biden's presence on the ticket, and only 2% say less likely.

You heard that - that's a 19 point pick up (21 minus 2) for Obama among Democrats with the Biden pick. Only 2% are less likely to vote for him.

Props to Democratic unity!  

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Springfield, Illinois - Saturday

Obama is having a big event in Springfield, Illinois this Saturday.  Perhaps his vp pick comes from that same state - and is new a Senator from NY.

After thinking that it's very unlikely, I've started to think that Hillary Clinton will be the vp candidate.

BTW, another possible pick from Illinois - Wesley Clark.

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Lanny Davis on the roll call

Lanny Davis, clearly a strong supporter of Hillary and Bill Clinton is on record saying that he was opposed to having a roll call - but that the ultimate choice to do so was good because --- it will show how marginal are the delegates who won't vote for Obama.

Here's the quote:

"I was on record saying I didn't think this was a good idea, because I was worried about the PUMA [Party Unity My Ass] supporters, people who are indifferent to a McCain presidency and are only driven by anger, which is not to criticize them, that is a genuine emotion," Lanny Davis, one of Clinton's more vocal supporters, told the Huffington Post. "That is reality and I thought that giving her a roll call vote would be destructive and counterproductive at the convention, because it is impossible to control the way the media would cover it. The most vocal Obama critics would be surround by 50 television cameras and be given their 50 seconds of fame."

It turned out, Davis went on, "that I had less faith then my candidate and Sen. Obama... The compromise they have just announced pulls off the exact solution that allows people to cast their votes and allows people like me to separate ourselves from the five percent of folks who weren't going to support Obama no matter what."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/15 In short, don't expect a lot of votes for Clinton at the roll call. BTW, when do you think the msm will start reporting that Ron Paul is holding a counter-convention that will be almost as large as the Republican convention?  http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/22/paul-casts-a-larger-shadow-convention

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More insight on the nomination campaign

Just as it looked like things were calming down somewhat from the nomination campaign, a whole lot of documents will be coming out from within the Clinton campaign.  We'll learn quite a lot about their decision-making and strategies.

Just when you thought everyone had moved on... former advisers to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton are in a tizzy over an upcoming piece in the Atlantic Monthly that chronicles the inner workings of the now-defunct campaign. Of particular concern are nearly 200 internal memos that the author, Josh Green, obtained -- 130 or so of which he plans to scan in and post online. When the piece is published sometime next week, readers will be able to scroll through the memos, from senior strategists such as Mark Penn, Harold Ickes and Geoff Garin, and see what exactly was going on inside the infamously fractured Clinton organization.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-tra il/2008/08/07/atlantic_scores_internal_c lint.html

Last fall I was sure - like many - that Clinton would win the nomination. She had the name recognition, strength in the polls, lots and lots of money, and a 100 superdelegate lead.  We all know her campaign made some dumb mistakes (even as the Obama campaign did an excellent job in longer range planning).  

A lot of times this kind of stuff doesn't come out until after the general election, maybe even years later.  I tend to think it would be better if that were true now.

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Diaries

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