Some observations of TX 23

by politics64, Wed Dec 13, 2006 at 04:16:51 AM EST

I was surpised to see from the results taken off the SOS site that Ciro actually won the early voting in TX23. Here are the numbers by county:

County       Bonilla Rodriguez Total   Precincts Total
              REP     DEM     Votes    Reported Precincts
ALL COUNTIES  32,165  38,247  70,412       267 267
Early         14,419  16,896  31,315  
BEXAR         19,921  25,603  45,524        92  92
Early          9,191  11,846  21,037  
BREWSTER         630     692   1,322         9   9
Early            343     280     623
CROCKETT         369     103     472         5   5
Early            217      47     264
CULBERSON         68      78     146         5   5
Early             31      10      41
DIMMIT           292     867   1,159         8   8
Early             83     161     244
EDWARDS          325      82     407         6   6
Early            154      34     188
EL PASO          226     422     648         8   8
Early             60     119     179  
HUDSPETH         130      36     166         6   6
Early             13       7      20
JEFF DAVIS       321     189     510         6   6
Early            163      80     243
KINNEY           416     216     632         5   5
Early            196      97     293
MAVERICK         471   2,857   3,328        15  15
Early            154   1,402   1,556
MEDINA         3,174   1,511   4,685        24  24
Early          1,080     434   1,514
PECOS            875     444   1,319         8   8
Early            441     236     677
PRESIDIO         161     299     460         8   8
Early             88     131     219  
REEVES           476     361     837        12  12
Early            239     189     428  
SUTTON           146      53     199         5   5
Early             63       7      70  
TERRELL          100      61     161         5   5
Early             49      26      75
UVALDE         1,867   1,220   3,087        15  15
Early            754     437   1,191
VAL VERDE      1,942   1,873   3,815        18  18
Early            993     901   1,894
ZAVALA           255   1,280   1,535         7   7
Early            107     452     559

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There has been a great deal discussed on these MYDD pages in support of Howard Dean's 50 state project and more discussed abpout the blueing of rural America and the Southwest. What I find interesting in these results is that when Democratic Bexar County (San Antonio) is taken out of the equation, Ciro still won the district by over 300 votes in the remaining mostly rural populated sections of the district.  It would seem that the Democratic Party truely is competitive again in rural America!

Tags: Ciro Rodrigues, Henry Bonilla, Teaxas 23 runoff (all tags)

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4 Comments

Shadow_head_small
Re: Some observations of TX 23

Well, maybe sort of. Remember that
this district is 55-65% Hispanic,
quite a different thing than say,
rural downstate Illinois.

And two of the big counties besides
Bexar, Val Verde and Maverick, sit
right on the Rio Grande border. The
big industry in those places is the
maquiladora factories on the other
side of the river, and the warehousing
and trucking of the supplies to and
products from those factories.

The thinly populated counties are
mostly ranchland, with a smattering
of oil fields, and a trace of tourism
jobs and retirement-second home stuff
around Big Bend National Park.

Except for the Hispanic voters in the
wide open spaces, I'd bet the landowners
and other Anglos almost all voted R.

But every district is different, with
a different mix of populations and
industries, even the rural districts.
And in this one we won, for sure.

by Woody 2006-12-13 05:12AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Some observations of TX 23

Thanks for your insights into the TX23 district. It was remarkable victory in a part of America that Democrats have not seen success in for a while.

by politics64 2006-12-13 05:15AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Some observations of TX 23

I think the racial make-up for the district doesn't hold in the analysis if both the candidates are Latino, both Mexican. Sure, it isn't rural Illinois, but it plays like two white men running there. There's isn't a different in this sense.

by Alex Flores 2006-12-13 10:55AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Re: Some observations of TX-23

Late getting back to you.

Bonilla is Hispanic by heritage, but he's uh, uh, uh, let me say he's highly assimilated into the Anglo culture. For example, he lives in a mostly upscale, mostly Anglo section of North San Antonio, while the bulk of Mexican-Americans and almost all the poor ones, live on the Southside, as does Ciro.

Besides, he's a Republican, the only Repubican Congressman, with a thin, weak Republican organization in the Texas Mexican-American community. Ciro was backed by Hispanic office holders from State Senator and State Rep down to County and City Council members. He could get on a stage in the majority-Hispanic counties with the local politicos y todos hablan espanol. Bonilla could not do that.

I shouldn't get into skin color. But by this time (May) it's just you and me so I will. Let me tell a bit of history. San Antonio was "settled" -- so the history books say -- when Spanish missions were founded along the spring-fed river. The Indians already living there when the settlement occurred were converted. Over time, the local Indians interbred with the white soldiers, traders, and ranchers who had come there. Three hundred years later, San Antonio has elite clubs whose members can trace their bloodlines back to those first white settlers. But the majority of the Spanish-speaking citizens are more Indian in origin (I haven't done any DNA testing, but it's clear). Most of them are not so rich as the lighter-skinned elite. To put it bluntly, Bonilla looks like he came over with Cortez, and Ciro looks like an Aztec.

All to say that issues of class and color did not work in Bonilla's favor in this heavily Hispanic district.

by Woody 2007-05-22 12:01PM | 0 recs

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