NE-03 Big News, It's A Race.

This just showed up in my mailbox:

A new poll conducted by national polling firm Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates September 20-21 shows that the 3rd District congressional race is up for grabs as we enter the last six weeks of the campaign.

When asked who they would vote for "if the election were held today," 41 percent of definite voters said they would vote for Adrian Smith and 37 percent said they would vote for Scott Kleeb. The margin of error for the entire sample is ±4.87%.

Considering the margin of error and the high percentage of undecided voters - this race is most definitely in play.

There are likely a lot of people who don't believe Democrats can compete in Nebraska. Well, I think we are about to prove that wrong.

Historically, when there is an open seat in this district it's always close, even with an almost 2 to 1 Republican registration advantage.

Kleeb has appeal among Republicans.

From

The Kearney Hub:

KEARNEY -- Some Kearney-area Republicans are crossing party lines to support a Democrat in the race to replace 3rd District Rep. Tom Osborne.

"I wish Scott Kleeb were a Republican, but in this case we have to support the candidate who is better for the district," said retired Kearney businessman Ron Larsen, a Republican.

Scott Kleeb is a great candidate. We are lucky to have 3 candidates running for congress this year that are willing to do what it takes to win.

This is what the 50 state strategy is all about. Adrian Smith, Kleeb's Republican opponent was backed by the Club for Growth in the primary. They spent over $300,000 to get him elected. Now people in the district, which is almost completely farm and ranch country, are beginning to wonder:

Some of the Kearney Republicans for Kleeb said they had supported candidate John Hanson of Kearney in the Republican primary because Hanson had the best grasp of agricultural issues. They said Hanson's loss disappointed them, but they are angry because Smith won the primary using contributions from an organization that opposes farm subsidies.

"What disturbed me the most in the primary," Kearney businessman Tom Henning said, "was that Club for Growth gave Adrian Smith $325,000. They (Club for Growth) are in favor of eliminating the USDA. I'm not certain what Smith's motive was."

We will not have this good a pickup opportunity again for a long time if Adrian Smith wins.

There is a tidal wave building. This is great news.

Here's my actblue page:

Turn the Plains Blue

You should consider giving to the other two candidates listed on that page, too.

For those of you who live in solidly blue areas and don't have to worry about their Democratic candidates winning. Think about helping us out here in Nebraska.

Thanks.

phat

Tags: Kleeb, NE-03 (all tags)

Comments

12 Comments

Re: NE-03 Big News, It's A Race.

There's a lot of these this year, aren't there?

Can't believe how little play this NPR poll is getting here and at Kos.  Because it's starting to look as if, if we take back the House, we're gonna do it in what had been some very red territory.

by RT 2006-09-22 04:16PM | 0 recs
Rural America

Rural America has always taken it in the shorts when these types are in power.

phat

by phatass 2006-09-22 04:20PM | 0 recs
Re: NE-03 Big News, It's A Race.

37 is a long way from 50%+1... but a good place to be I guess.  And he's hot ;)

by HoosierJosh 2006-09-22 07:18PM | 0 recs
Re: NE-03 Big News, It's A Race.

Damn, you beat me to it.  Now I have some concrete evidence to point to when I tell people what has been obvious for several months now: Scott Kleeb is on the path to win this race. This story in the Kearney Hub is especially illustrative: http://www.kearneyhub.com/site/news.cfm? newsid=17222312&BRD=268&PAG=461& amp;dept_id=577571&rfi=6  

Kleeb is shattering the traditional stereotype of Democrats as elitist, bicoastal snobs who disparage the Plains as "flyover country".  You and I know this isn't true, but our party machinery in such states has detiorated to such a point that we've been unable to effectively challenge these Republican memes.  And Smith, the substandard lawmaker with strong financial ties to outside, anti-agricultural interests is the perfect foil for this bull-riding PhD with big ideas and a small-town charm.

by Ryan Anderson 2006-09-22 07:48PM | 0 recs
Re: NE-03 Big News, It's A Race.

Hey, Ryan I think we met at the Snap Pac Fundraiser in New Haven and I mocked the race. I am sorry. here is my appology publically.

by Democraticavenger 2006-09-22 08:09PM | 0 recs
Re: NE-03 Big News, It's A Race.

Haha, I appreciate the sentiment, but that wasn't me in New Haven. :)

by Ryan Anderson 2006-09-22 09:05PM | 0 recs
Re: NE-03 Big News, It's A Race.

Kleeb is running his campaign the old fashioned way - one door, one county at a time.  However, I am disappointed that he is not using more high tech features - like the tubes.  Being on the eastern end of 03, I have only seen one ad on local TV.  However, my county and one other were gerrymandered into that eastern edge and will afford Kleeb more Democratic votes as they always vote Democratic.

by JFinNe 2006-09-23 03:08AM | 0 recs
Re: NE-03 Big News, It's A Race.

Kleeb is a great candidate, and running a smart campaign too.  (I have given a little money, and based on this will probably give again.  I don't think that makes me a pais shill, but a paying shill).

For the long term of the party I think this is an important race to win.  So long as he keeps his nose out of the special interest trough, he can be the kind of candidate that really connects to rural America, young America, and shake up some of that elitst rap.

by Orlando 2006-09-23 02:20PM | 0 recs
I want to believe you

I totally believe in the 50-state strategy. However, when I see poll numbers like this I assume that the lion's share of the undecideds are Republicans who will come home when the hate radio hosts, or their church elders, tell them to vote Republican.

It's important to build up the Democratic Party brand with good candidates everywhere, however. When the Labour Party won the 1997 election in the UK, they won districts where they'd been running no-hoper candidates for decades, districts where no one ever thought Labour could possibly compete.

by desmoinesdem 2006-09-23 07:39PM | 0 recs
Re: I want to believe you

Even if the undecideds break for Smith, the time spent here by Cheney and the like will pull from other districts. 50 state strategy at work.

I think the RNC are a little nervous about this race.

Kleeb is very obviously more qualified for this seat than Smith. Smith cannot win on merits, just party affiliation. At the risk of insulting previous candidates in the district, we haven't seen anyone quite like Kleeb in NE-03 for a long time. It's quite good timing, as it's an open seat.

I'm not even sure how Smith got involved in politics in the first place. His first elected office is in the Unicameral and in that district, it's not that hard to get elected if you do the work. I can't imagine he actually did the work, knowing what I know about the guy. But he must have done something.

I'm rambling...

Suffice to say, Smith is not qualified for the position. He would make a terrible Congressman. This is put into more relief when you compare him to Kleeb.

This is the first election cycle I've seen in a long time where the Democrats seem willing to ignore the conventional wisdom and really try and win.

Kleeb leads the way on that score.

The weaknesses in the Republican party in Nebraska are quite stark right now. If we don't take advantage of that right now, well, we won't have another good opportunity for awhile.

phat

by phatass 2006-09-23 10:23PM | 0 recs
Re: I want to believe you

"I'm not even sure how Smith got involved in politics in the first place. His first elected office is in the Unicameral and in that district, it's not that hard to get elected if you do the work."

Actually, his first elected office was on the Gering City Council.  He got involved in politics "in the first place" as a legislative aid for the Unicam.  So I think you're overplaying your hand when you say "Kleeb is very obviously more qualified for this seat than Smith."  Smith's is well qualified, but Kleeb is definately far more distinguished.  Smith's spent plenty of time in politics already without distinguishing himself in the slightest.  Kleeb's been in politics for a little over a year now and is already taking the country by storm.  

Well, okay, maybe that was a tad hyperbolic, but this race really gets me excited :)

by Ryan Anderson 2006-09-23 10:57PM | 0 recs
Re: NE-03 Big News, It's A Race.

You're right.

I was getting a little excited.

Don't post after too many beers.

Remember that.

phat

by phatass 2006-09-24 12:27PM | 0 recs

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