CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE

A rumor is spreading through DC (my town) like wildfire from high ranking sources:

Hillary Clinton will avoid humiliation and drop out this Friday, FEBRUARY 29th.

Suddenly, on Intrade, shares of "Dropout.Feb08.Clinton" have surged almost 800%.

Is that a result of the rumors or is someone in the know putting their money where their mouth is?

Intrade right now:

Last: 14.9 (up +12.9)
Ask: 35.0

Drudge hasn't picked it up, and usually that's a good sign that it's not true (since Drudge would run it even if it weren't true). But this is still an interesting turn of events.

I wouldn't blame Hillary Clinton for avoiding the humiliation of a devastating final defeat at the hands of a political neophyte. It would be the best thing for both her party, and her.

UPDATE: IT'S UP TO 35.0!!! That means there's a 35% chance that she's going to drop out BY THIS FRIDAY!!!

UPDATE #2: WOAH. Someone else hears the same thing!!!

Clinton to drop out Friday?

Tags: Hillary Clinton, Intrade (all tags)

Comments

40 Comments

Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29"

Hillary has read the writing on the wall and decided its time to unite, not divide the party in a long contentious battle all the way to the convention.   Good for her.

by soros 2008-02-27 11:55AM | 0 recs
Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29"

This is just speculation.  I seriously doubt she will drop out before Tuesday.  If she wins both OH & TX by a fairly clear margin, which is not entirely out of the realm of possibility at this piont, she still has a legitimate campaign.  If she loses both, she'll be out either Tuesday night or Wednesday.

by NJIndependent 2008-02-27 11:59AM | 0 recs
Re: a fairly clear margin,?

That's right.

by americanincanada 2008-02-27 12:27PM | 0 recs
well..

a one vote win in TX probably means a net gain of a dozen delegates by Obama, which isn't really a win at all.

by omar little 2008-02-27 12:48PM | 0 recs
Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29 LOL

This is the most insane thing I have ever read. She will not drop out before Texas and Ohio. she has just opened offices in Wyoming today.

LMAO

by americanincanada 2008-02-27 11:57AM | 0 recs
Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29 LOL

I don't know...it's up to 35.0 now!!!

by pastor john 2008-02-27 11:59AM | 0 recs
Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29 LOL

WOW...realy?!?!? /sarcasm

by americanincanada 2008-02-27 12:07PM | 0 recs
Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29 LOL

When you look at prediction markets you have to note the volumes, at 713 this one is very low.  $1000 would change the odds dramatically, if I understand they're betting methods correctly.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-27 12:49PM | 0 recs
It's spelled

whoa.

by Beltway Dem 2008-02-27 01:57PM | 0 recs
River103
Snark is no reason to troll rate someone, please read the rules.
Do not troll rate (rating as 0) another user's comment unless it is a comment that violates one of the guidelines. Abusing this privilege will result in all your ratings being erased and/or getting a warning or being banned.
by Its Like Herding Cats 2008-02-27 02:35PM | 0 recs
Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29 LOL

You realize, don't you, that these prediction markets are just that...predictions. They have no determining factor in what actually happens...

It could go to 99.9999999996 percent and that is just the result of people betting; it in no way increases the liklihood of the event actually happening.

by arkansasdemocrat 2008-02-27 03:48PM | 0 recs
Makes absolutely no sense.

I call bullshit.

There is no logical reason for her to drop out before Tuesday. None.

Even if she were to lose both contests, she could still gracefully bow out after Texas and Ohio.

I think this report is baloney.

by Bob Johnson 2008-02-27 12:05PM | 0 recs
Re: wow. look at me giving a mojo to bob johnson

It's a ridiculous assertion. There is absolutely no reason for Clinton to drop out at this point.

by Bob Johnson 2008-02-27 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29"
Just goes to show you how little the folks on Intrade know what they are talking about. Its wishful thinking, pure and simple.
 
by Scan 2008-02-27 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29"

She won't withdraw until after March 4.  However, it is highly likely she withdraws before Mississippi and Wyoming vote the next week, assuming poll trends hold and Obama wins Texas and ties Ohio.

by Skaje 2008-02-27 12:28PM | 0 recs
Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29"

That's a pretty big assumption but I respect the fact that you don't buy into this 'story' of her getting out now.

by americanincanada 2008-02-27 12:32PM | 0 recs
Re:HRC To Drop Out Before 2-29

Don't you just love the smell of pure capitalism at work? Especially when it feeds on the democratic political process.  

Since we are advocating political execution by markets, if the stock market drops 500 points or more while we are in the midst of an Obama Presidency, will you require him to resign? After al,l like all presidencies, the Obama bubble will burst, its only a matter of when. Be careful what you advocate, it may well come back to haunt your candidate.

by superetendar 2008-02-27 12:36PM | 0 recs
Highly doubt it...

Don't see this happening at all.  While it's almost impossible for her to win the nomination right now, she may as well ride it out until OH and TX just in case she gets another surprise win like NH.

by leshrac55 2008-02-27 12:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Don't Think So

How is this damaging?

by pastor john 2008-02-27 01:00PM | 0 recs
In fact -

I'm pretty confident that that is exactly what this rumor-mongering is meant to do.  It's pretty transparent.  

by mgee 2008-02-27 01:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Don't Think So

Ha - you think? In that case, I'm all about this diary!

by pastor john 2008-02-27 02:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Don't Think So

Just to be rational - no candidate stops their campaign before they actually stop their campaign. There could be an office opening on the same day she drops out - that would not be surprising or strange.

by LandStander 2008-02-27 01:07PM | 0 recs
Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE

Why am I getting a feeling that you have a position on this deal?

Pump-and-dump, perhaps?

by Bob Johnson 2008-02-27 01:23PM | 0 recs
(Comment Deleted)

This comment has been deleted by an administrator.

by Firefly4625 2008-02-27 01:29PM | 0 recs
Firefly...Out of LINE!

Firefly...

While I (as an Obama supporter/former Edwards) agree that this is, BY FAR the most stupid thread I have seen in weeks.  

NO WAY does HRC fold up her tent this Friday.  She's already spent the $$ in the 4 states, and has to still pay herself back the 5M I do believe.

I don't know where this rumor came from, but it is incredibly foolish to buy it or be upset by it.  Pure Jackassery.

BUT...you wrote this:

"...They know polls are moving in her favor.
They know SHE KILLED HIM IN THE DEBATE LAST NIGHT.
They know she just opened an office in Wyoming TODAY - sound like she's going ANYWHERE?
They know THEY COULD LOSE TX, OH, RI, and others and then WHO WOULD HAVE THE MOMENTUM? You got it.

Obama's a filthy sleazebag - "transparency" my *ss!"

I must respond.  I respect Hillary and the Clintons as well as 95% of her supporters, but Firefly...four of your five sentences are pure, unmitigated rubbish, and indicative of a vapid regrettable lack of substance so disturbing...it will be likely to keep me up tongiht worried for you.

1) The polls are not moving in her favor..except maybe in Rhode Island.  What polls are you talking about, for Crissakes?  BO has been moving UP steadily for the last 2 months almost EVERYWHERE.  

2) Killed him in the debate?  You could argue an opinion that she did just that.  But asa statement of fact, I'd like to see the data you claim demonstrates her "win" as a surety.  Evey poll and/or pundit I saw (even NPR) said it was either a wash or a slight Obama win, given his calm Presidential delivery.

3) Wyoming...Good point.  However, offices CAN be closed too.

4)Obama is not likely to lose all 3, though I will give you Rhode Island.  In fact it is far more likely that if he loses TX and/or OH it will be by less than 10 points, which given the math and momentum, is almost like a win as the delgate split favors Obama.  I would guess you know this though.

5) Finally, you call Obama a fithy sleazebag.  

You are either a GOP Troll, or a terribly deluded anger-laden person.

WE MUST find a way to get along here!  Firefly, I thin kyou are the former...a troll trying to stir things up.  To quote Mrs. Clinton herslef...SHAME ON YOU.

by a gunslinger 2008-02-27 05:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Filthy Obama politics

They know you don't know what you are talking about.  

She embarassed herself at the debate.  The polls are NOT trending to her and she is going to lose the nom to Obama, the 44th President of the US.

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-27 05:24PM | 0 recs
Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE

You guys are Hillaryous!

You just Hope she will.

by Fleaflicker 2008-02-27 01:43PM | 0 recs
Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE

Hillary has a large enough army of supporters, willing to stick with her until the convention. And beyond. There is no reason to drop out.

by DaleA 2008-02-27 02:01PM | 0 recs
Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE

Beyond the convention?  To where?  The Connecticut For Lieberman convention?

by NJIndependent 2008-02-27 02:11PM | 0 recs
Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE

2012 perhaps. She has a large and loyal following, probably more than any other Democrat among Democrats.

by DaleA 2008-02-27 03:12PM | 0 recs
Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE

2012?  Trying to primary a sitting President is definitely bad form.  Or do you mean her 2012 Senate race?

by NJIndependent 2008-02-27 03:15PM | 0 recs
Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE

Although I hope the democratic nominee will win the general election it's by no means certain.

And even if Obama would win it also isn't certain that he would run again in 2012, for whatever reason.

by Ernst 2008-02-29 01:53AM | 0 recs
Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE

This has to be rumor.  First of all, there are other candidates and maybe referendum issues which might suffer if she drops out.  And the money is pretty much spent.  If she loses, she can drop out after Tuesday.  Even Obama benefits from another few days of shutting McCain out of the headlines.  Plus, if he has to agree to the public financing for the GE, he might as well talk Clinton into keeping the campaign going until Pennsylvania where he can use the money raised for the primary to tour the country.  Hell, maybe he ought to finance her campaign at that point!

by Drummond 2008-02-27 02:38PM | 0 recs
Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE

There's no way Obama will agree to public financing when he has the ability to raise a billion dollars in private financing.

by NJIndependent 2008-02-27 03:16PM | 0 recs
Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE

...from high ranking sources

The silliest part of this rediculous diary is that you reference "high ranking sources" and then only cite DailyKos, a refuge for Obama hacks.

by arkansasdemocrat 2008-02-27 03:51PM | 0 recs
No way

IF she lost badly in both Ohio and Texas, she still wouldn't drop out for at least a week or two.

by Walt Starr 2008-02-27 04:54PM | 0 recs
Re: No way

Not a chance in hell.  She's out if she loses both.  

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-27 05:25PM | 0 recs
I heard a rumor that obama was a muslim!!!

and he's announcing the truth on Friday.

by nikkid 2008-02-27 07:03PM | 0 recs
Re: I heard a rumor that obama was a muslim!!!

This is a load of rubbish. No way she drops out before TX and OHIO. But the rumor came from a guy named Jay Severin on 96.9FM in Boston.

by fugazi 2008-02-28 07:50AM | 0 recs
Stay classy
"rag hat" = xenophobic racist comment.
by John in Chicago 2008-02-28 06:55AM | 0 recs

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