I agree that Iran will not escalate anything, since it is not in their interest to do so.  They are hurting us enough by destabilizing Iraq with their armed and trained militias.  A war with the U.S. will be hard on us, but they will be obliterated and Bush might even go nuclear.

But that does not mean Bush will not attack Iran.  Despite not having much political support, if you beat the drums long and hard enough, a wisp of a smoking gun, such as a few Iranian soldiers being caught fighting American troops amongst the militia, will be enough to garner enough political support for an attack.

That is why we must turn on the PR machine and blast Bush now.  Whatever shreds of support he has must be destroyed, and any efforts to provocate Iran must be exposed before they actually work. Never underestimate these guys.  It may seem like an overreaction, but we must kill this idea of attacking Iran before it grows.

I have a post on how to message this at my site - www.progressivemovement.net.

Cudos to Biden for taking the opening salvo.  

Paul was certainly vulnerable this cycle, given that he voted against hurricane relief funding, even though his districts encompasses half the Texas coast line and was almost hit by Rita.  Galveston has a large African-American population, and Sklar could not even win there.  

True, if its open we might have a better shot, and if the national mood sours against Republicans further - likely given Bush's desire to engulf the entire Mid-East in war by attacking Syria and Iran - who knows?  

But living in that district, let me tell you its a hard sell.

We can move Congressional seats around all we want, but at the end of the day we are gaining population.

And more people in a confined space means bigger and denser urban areas.  And urbanization almost universally creates more liberal leaning voters.  That is why you have Democrats representing large cities in very conservative states.

Combined with the Republicans screwing themselves with the Latino population, I expect the Dems will be doing fine after 2010.

One other thing, we have to fight for statistical sampling in the 2010 Census, as opposed to the hard count the Repubs want.  They got it in 2000 and it short changed the urban areas, where most of the undercounted live.  If we get statistical sampling, we will get more official population in the cities.  Consequently, districts will have to be shifted more towards urban areas, picking up seats for the Dems, even in the South.

Of all that has happened so far in the nascent Dem controlled Congress, this one is by far the best.  45% of the public wants Congress to deal with Iraq, crushing any other issue.  If the Dems do not deal with this firmly, their chances in 08 are dimmer.  If they can stop the escalation by cutting off the funds, you can stick a fork in Bush's ass and turn him over.  He's done.  

Pelosi knows this.  I am really psyched right now.  So psyched I linked to this post on my site.  Let's hope there is follow through.

That means Abazaid and Casey are Trotsky?!  Brilliant.  Thanks for this insight.  I mentioned the mail thing made W a despotic dictator on my website, www.progressivemovement.net, but the transferring of those two generals elsewhere really smacks of Stalin.  Cudos.

30%!  wow, that really sucks.

While it is true we have to think more about flexing our power and getting stuff done, if we accomplish stuff and no one hears about it, or only hears the negative spin on it from Limbaugh, Hannity, and Coulter, we will have a short lived majority. We should redouble our efforts to improve our message and make sure our champions stay on it.

I am much less sanguine about how much the Dems will accomplish, simply because they do not have a track record of doing so.  So in that sense, I agree we need to think more about strategy and policy so we can hold the Dem leadership's feet to the fire.  But even if they do accomplish great things, having a great product means nothing unless you sell it.

So bottom line is more work for us.  But I would rather have this problem than the one we have before Nov. 7th.

Of course we do not know why everyone voted the way they did, and voter turnout clearly played a big role.  But I just want to put out there the notion that with Bush's poll numbers now at 31 percent, and the public dislike of the war at historical (i.e. Vietnam) levels, people in the district saw Bonilla as a big, fat, tool for Bush and his failed policies.

I bet if they held a FL-13 revote right now that Buchannan would get trounced by Jennings.

I agree we need a more aggressive response to these sorts of questions.  And yes, the entire party needs better media training.  The Republicans get it, why don't we?

I would simply say "So Glen, you obviously believe that stablizing Iraq is unpatriotic, since the only way to make Iraq secure, and give us the chance at success is to start withdrawing our troops..."

This turns the unpatriotic attack onto the stay the coursers, and allows you to explain what your policy is on Iraq while the other person is on the defensive.

If the election results were not enough to hurt Bush's approval rating, the resignation of Rumsfeld after the election and the renomination of Bolton sealed the deal.

Rummy's firing clearly was in the works before the election, even when Bush said he had complete confidence in Rumsfeld.  The Republicans caught lying for political purposes again; smacking of the same philosophy that lead to covering up Foley's behavior.

Then immediately after the rhetoric of working with Dems, Bush renominates Bolton?  The public is beginning to understand there is no honesty in the man.

One other interesting tidbit in the numbers.  Bush's approval rating was 42 percent from midterm voters.  An increase of 4% from Gallup's poll rating of 38% approval.  Shows that the Republican  base still outhussles ours.

with the dems now in power, you may see that compromise scratched, but you have to add 2 votes in order to keep the total votes uneven.  so they have to add one somewhere else.  i would prefer adding real votes to puerto rico, the virgin islands, guam, etc...

not sure the utah vote would count as an extra electoral college vote until after 2010.  have to check the language on that.  the dc vote does not add any electoral votes, so why would the utah one?

Moreover, there were thousands of reports of faulty machines, not enough machines, poll workers not having the right equipment to turn the machines on, etc...  Even the Republicans were complaining about this!

In a Dem year, we should have won more seats in the House than we did.  And even in places like VA, where Webb did beat Allen, the final results did not meet exit polls.  So there is definitely evidence that some fishy stuff was going on.  Again, witness FL-13.

With all the recounts happening, the main question is this:  how do you recount an electronic vote with no paper trail and no access to source codes?  Answer:  You cannot.

What kind of democracy is it where we cannot have a recount and yet we know it is very easy to rig the machines?  Why not put everyone's mind to rest and either get rid of the machines or demand paper trails and access to the source codes?  It seems pretty straightforward to me.  And completely non-partisan.

Sweet.  Now, when I go up to my Republican brother in law's in PA-08 this weekend I can rub it in his face.

I agree that Rummy is a political move, but it actually plays into the theme that the public repudiated Bush, particularly Iraq.  So it is not a news cycle favorable to them.

I agree with the general sentiment that we need to start now on establishing our ground game and candidates for 08, and a lot of that is done by assessing what worked yesterday.

So we have to take credit where it is due, and by hitting Emanuel hard publicly, and vigorously promoting how liberal Dems won big last night and our role in those victories, we might be able to force him to acknowledge what we accomplished.

But none of that needs to stop us from hitting the ground running and improving our tactics for 08.  If we know we are right, then we should continue pressing forward with our agenda.  Success gets noticed and copied.  Expect the Repubs to figure out our role by, like, last night.  The sooner we can get the DLC and Emanuel to figure it out, the better for us.

As far as Congress, we should promote wildly popular policies like increasing the minimum wage, renewable electricity standards, stem cell research, and opposing Bush on Iraq.

Good policy will speak louder than anything Rahm says.  And hey, Rummy is gone, so its not all that bad.

Awesome.  That is the message we need to promote, especially the one about expanding the playing field.  This is a key point most pundits miss. One of our roles is to help candidates out on the cheap when they cannot raise big money and the party will not touch them.

Its late and MT will not be decided until tomorrow, so I am cashing it in.  We are going to have to fight this one in court I am afraid, but I have been wrong before.