by Obamafan, Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 08:29:20 PM EDT
Hillary Supporters got very excited about the Insider Advantage Poll.
Now here comes the real Poll:
Mason-Dixon North Carolina Poll
Barack Obama 49 %
Hillary Clinton 42 %
Undecided 9 %
conducted April 28-29/MOE 5.0
A bit of concern for us is that Local NC TV Station WRAL says Wright is dragging Obama down.
Tags: BREAKING Poll (all tags)
Speaking as a Hillary supporter, that's pretty exciting, too. There are 3 recent polls, and Obama's lead is 7, 5, and -2. That's significant movement from where they were pre-PA.
Obama is now under 50% in three polls out of NC. Will it be like PA, OH, TX and NH where he get +/- 1 or 2 from his preelection polling or will it be like SC, VA and WI where he outperforms his polling by a lot. Well, the undecideds are the ones who may decide that.
he's under 50 in this one too. ALL of the polls confirm one common fact...Hillary has the 'mo in NC
Looks like. Keeping it close here with a near-10-ish win in Indiana, backed up by a net gain of at least a few delegates for the day, would be enough to keep Clinton in the race (marginally). Winning North Carolina would be enough to give her an actually decent shot at the nomination, as it would be the first major upset of Clinton's in an Obama state.
(disclaimer: Obama supporter)
And you are celebrating??
Let's see.
Clinton has consistently closed the margin in the last week of nearly every primary in the past two months. Clinton has also gained the lion's share of the undecideds. What that suggests is that Obama may win NC by only the small single digits - and has a chance of losing, now. In North Carolina.
At best he is going to have to divert time and resources away from Indiana - where most polls show him falling further and further behind.
Nope - this WRAL poll isn't exactly good news for Obama.
Although I'll grant you - it isn't as bad as the Insider Advantage poll.
http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/ story/2691961/
In this early April poll, Obama led Clinton 56% to 33%.
So Obama's lead has evaporated.
Another poll showing a single digit race. I'll take it. Anything to show Obama's weakness and give superdelegates pause or sway them, I will take it.
87% of African-Americans for Obama, 62% of whites for Clinton. The margin will depend of African-American turnout and the ability of Clinton to run up the margins in Appalachia and get out the white vote.
The latest poll taken by tonight is only showing Obama with a 60-20 spread with AA.
No, this poll shows Obama winning 87% of the African-American vote. Follow the link for the poll.
I'm referring to the poll which shows her leading by 2%
That I understood, but this diary is dedicated to the Mason-Dixon poll. I highly doubt Obama is only getting 64% of the African-American vote.
You know, you've gotta stop with the "this diary is dedicated to" stuff, trying to shut out dialogue about polls. The diarist specifically cited the IA poll in the original post. No poll like this should be discussed in a vacuum. All of them should be examined for possible trend lines, regardless of the actual numbers.
Whether you "highly doubt" Obama is only getting 64% of the AA vote really doesn't matter. If that's what a particular poll shows, that's what it shows. We'll see on election day. But it's not as if the number was pulled out of whole cloth.
The earlier Poll was conducted by Rasmussen. This one is conducted by Mason-Dixon.
Honestly that poll is pretty damned good news for a Hillary supporter. Do you have a link?
This is great news.
I was so worried about a 25% loss in North Carolina. I had to factor that Obama blow-out into all of my analyses. If it's under 10%, Hillary's going to close the gap bigtime with the other eight remaining contests. It's soon going to be at the point where they could exclude Michigan outright (which they won't) and just plain old Florida would put her over the top.
It certainly looks like most polls if not all of them are showing a significant trend in her direction. Rev. Wright is dragging him down as is Hillary's huge movo coming out of Pa.
I just think about the two prominent images North Carolinians are seeing right now:
Rev. Wright
Maya Angelou
No they aren't analogues and no it's not entirely fair, but those are the two images folks in NC are seeing, nearly side-by-side. That has to be helping Hillary.
not good for Barack. Wright may just have been his Donna Rice, as his preaching goes beyond mere "monkey business"
You should read what the SF gate is saying about Obama's belated condemnation of Wright. They refer to it as disingenuous and dishonest.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cg i?f=/c/a/2008/04/30/EDP910DPN2.DTL
I was deeply troubled with Obama's comments, especially after he said "I can no more disown him than I can disown the black community. I can no more disown him than I can my white grandmother..." It comes off as he will say or do anything to win, even at the expense of those close to him and that goes completely against what is campaign is about. Obama had to denounce Wright, but I think they set themselves up for this.
if he had done this 2 months ago, he'd be the nominee right now. he thought he was gonna keep this non-politician image, but while money talks, bullshit runs a marathon, and so now, when he has to be politically expedient, he misses the mark and comes off rather obvious
Who said Clinton couldn't close .
All you hear is when Obama hits the ground in a state he closes , like Clinton can't close as well.
This is one of the many myths of the campaign.
From Obama saying he is practicing a new type of politics , to him being the bi partisan candidate when it is clinton that has consistently worked across the aisle.
Talk Vs. Action.
By the way apart from the racial divide in some of the recent polls , women are closing ranks for Clinton , if she wins the women vote she has a chance to keep it close.
With ads like this I believe she would win that vote . It is a powerful rallying cry directly aimed at women.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOjD7Grrp C0&eurl=http://thepage.time.com/2008 04/30/new-clinton-north-carolina-tv-ad- features-maya-angelou-testimonial
If I was in the Obama campaign team , I would be extremely concerned.
People keep forgetting that this is a
North Carolina Primary with updated rules & a changed demographic electorate.
More open primary with lots of new registered voters coming from GOP & Independent ranks.
This will be the first post-Wright National Press Club, NAACP Damage Tour & the first Post-Obama " I am outraged speech".
The way polls are looking , anything is possible
Clinton wins IN & keeps it very close in NC. That would be bad news for Obama.
But if Clinton pulls off a Huge Upset & Wins both IN & NC - WE ARE TALKING ABOUT EARTHQUAKE PROPORTIONS HERE !
This is one scenario that ALL TV NETWORK pundits agree on. From Russert, Matthews, Keith O, Buchanan, Maddow, Scarborough to Martin, Cooper, & Bill Schneider.
If Obama losses both IN & NC, this could literally cause a COLLAPSE of his campaign.
If he somehow losses both IN & NC, he could very likely be swept in the entire month of May & on June 1st in Puerto Rico.
You want to see a sudden Collapse in Super Delegate confidence & Poll numbers ????
That's what NC means to the Obama camp.
in the 9 to 12 undecided voters that i keep seeing in one poll after the other. If those undecided break late just like they did in CA, MA and OH, i think Senator Clinton could pull a unbelievable surprising upset that would spell pretty much doom for us.
However, if they break for Senator Obama, well he could win the state by almost 10 points or more.
The polls over the weekend would be very telling.
Can't find an earlier Mason-Dixon poll for NC, so no trendlines for this one. But all the other ones clearly show movement to HRC.
I expect to see the Clinton campaign try to tamp down expectations a bit. "We would be delighted to keep it under 12 points" or some such thing. Although at this late stage, I don't know how valuable that would be if (as this poll has it) they lose by 7, except to move the spotlight more onto the Indiana results.
To get her out of the race, he needs to win both Indiana and NC. If he wins one but loses the other, this goes on and on. If he loses both expect all of the mass media to concentrate on how Obama's campaign collapsed due to Rev. Wright and wondering when he will concede (despite the fact that he'll still be in the lead).
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myDD - skin
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