Barack Obama WILL Win Democratic Presidential Nomination

by Obamafan, Sun May 11, 2008 at 12:27:30 AM EDT

If the Sunday Daily Telegraph in United Kingdom is to be believed which I have no doubt Barack Obama will win the Democratic Presidential Nomination.
According to Senior Strategists for the Democratic Party as well as Senior Strategists from the Obama Camp the Campaign is now confident to have 120 Superdelegates out of the remaining 260 ready to support him. The Obama Campaign estimates that they'll only need 80-90 of those once the Primary Season has been concluded.

What's more interesting is that there is apparently a Deal in works to persuade Hillary Clinton to drop out of the Race. The ENTIRE Michigan & Florida Delegation WILL BE SEATED to get Hillary out of the Race.

When you saw FL Rep. Tim Mahoney how confidently he said that the FL Delegation will be seated it makes a lot of sense.

To let Voters decide or push their Candidate over the magic Number of 2.208 now with FL & MI the Obama Campaign is in works to slowly start enrolling those Endorsements and to end it by June 3rd.

The 20 Supers or so we saw to commit to Obama this week is part of the Strategy.

I must say that's a brilliant move by the Obama Camp. If they believe they need only 80-90 I could see that happen by June 3rd to push him over the top.
Huh, so it looks like there backing of from the plan to declare Victory May 20th. Instead they'll declare it June 3rd.

OBAMA 08

Tags: MI & FL Delegations to be fully seated (all tags)

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Re: Barack Obama WILL Win Democratic Presidential

I have heard about how its impossible for Hillary soooooo many times that its now impossible for me to vote for Obama in the general.

by DTaylor 2008-05-11 12:32AM | 0 recs

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Re: Barack Obama WILL Win Democratic Presidential

How on earth does that make any sense? You are going to vote against a Democratic president who supports pretty much everything your favored candidate does because for several months she has been campaigning from a position as progressively more of the underdog, and so the prognosticators among us have been steadily prognosticating that she wasn't going to win it? Why?

by letterc 2008-05-11 12:35AM | 0 recs

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I don't think it makes sense to you

because you are not at the receiving end. DTaylor is a very big fan of the Clintons. After the opposition does everything but drag Hillary out into the street and shoot her, metaphorically speaking, I would imagine its hard not to feel that way... Just as Obama supports didn't like the brief 'cult member' meme, HRC supporters don't and didn't like the racist, more of the same, willing to do anything to win memes that are still running strong with the Obama folks. Its not welcoming, it very disheartening. But thats not DTaylor, rather my take on the position DTaylor is taking. I don't blame DTaylor.

by linc 2008-05-11 12:40AM | 0 recs

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Re: I don't think it makes sense to you

After the opposition does everything but drag Hillary out into the street and shoot her, metaphorically speaking

I troll rated you on this one because I'm tired of the double standards. If a Clinton supporter made a statement like this one...There would have been an avalanche of troll ratings.

by soyousay 2008-05-11 04:14AM | 0 recs

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Re: I don't think it makes sense to you

i take that as a clinton supporter. perhaps I'm wrong, but I think you are in fact. Maybe the original commentor should clarify?

by swissffun 2008-05-11 04:29AM | 0 recs

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Re: I don't think it makes sense to you

My apology, I misread your statement, I thought you were saying it was OK to do that.

by soyousay 2008-05-11 04:35AM | 0 recs

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I am a Clinton supporter

maybe I didn't clarify properly- I was saying that DTaylor has every right to feel the way he/she does... oh well. I was writing that late last night while simultaneously finishing up a massive PR plan- I should probably review the pr plan too!

by linc 2008-05-11 10:35AM | 0 recs

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Re: I don't think it makes sense to you

Brief?
Brief cult member theme?
Seriously?
Brief?
It is still a daily occurrence here and elsewhere. In fact, one particular Clinton supporter's tagline says something like "I'm already a Methodist. I don't need another Messiah."....so that, even if the actual comment from them is not offensive, they get in the offensive 'cult' dig. If anything, next to 'Obamabot', alluding to the 'cult' BS is one of the most common insults seen towards Obama supporters here (right up there with labeling all Obama supporters 'kids').

You may not blame DTaylor for his behavior...but, I sure as hell do. I don't see how such individuals will still be on this site come November. They will either leave in a snit on their own accord or they will be banned for their troll'ish behavior. Either way, it will be a relief.

by Kysen 2008-05-11 04:34AM | 0 recs

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Re: I don't think it makes sense to you

There are also the other themes that linc doesn't mention, like, well the racist theme, and the hard-working white voters theme, and the Farrakhan theme. But it does demonstrate the point. The ardent sup[porters of both sides mostly see what was done to their candidate as inexcusable, while what their candidate or their candidate's supporters did didn't even happen, or was just a little something for a moment maybe.

by letterc 2008-05-11 11:46AM | 0 recs

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Re: Barack Obama WILL Win Democratic Presidential

Hey, wasn't president Clinton telling us a few weeks ago about the difference between those who "want a president" and those who "need one"?

by lizardbox 2008-05-11 12:42AM | 0 recs

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CDS

There's a bad case of CDS (Clinton Derangement Syndrome) floating around here. It came over from TaylorMarsh/Hillaryis44 and efforts to eradicate it have been less than successful.

by GFORD 2008-05-11 02:38AM | 0 recs

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Apologies to non-crazy

Clinton supporters everywhere. I was only talking about a small group of people who have elevated Clinton beyond political candidate to some kind of minor deity.

by GFORD 2008-05-11 02:41AM | 0 recs

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Re: Barack Obama WILL Win Democratic Presidential

integrity counts...Obama has none, IMO.

by soyousay 2008-05-11 04:11AM | 0 recs

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Re: Barack Obama WILL Win Democratic Presidential

yes - exactly! BO has much the same positions, and pinches positions from HRC (and JE early) shamelessly ---- then he turns around and slams her for them. perfect case point, the whole 'HRC=Bush because she puts preconditions on talking to dictators' bullshit. Well, hello, what does BO's top foreign policy advisor reveal but that OF COURSE he will not meet with Iran, etc. without appropriate preconditions and preliminary diplomatic groundwork.

Yes, they may have on paper the same positions, but I take real offense that his seem to be half-hearted, deceptively framed, and certainly not backed-up by the experience needed to follow through.

by swissffun 2008-05-11 04:33AM | 0 recs

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Re: Barack Obama WILL Win Democratic Presidential

Shall we mark you down for McCain, then?

by ReillyDiefenbach 2008-05-11 09:16AM | 0 recs

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Re: The math is the math

Hillary Clinton remains 165 pledged delegates behind Barack Obama with only 217 pledged delegates remaining. What does that mean? If Sen. Clinton wins 61% of the remaining pledged delegates -- something she has only done in Arkansas (77%), Oklahoma (63%), and Rhode Island (62%) -- then she still finishes over 110 pledged delegates behind Sen. Obama. It's hard to believe that the superdelegates would come to that vastly a different conclusion than the pledged delegates.

by Brad G 2008-05-11 03:34AM | 0 recs

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Re: Barack Obama WILL Win Democratic Presidential

That written, Hillary Clinton won CA, TX, NY, PA, OH, and NJ. That's no small feat and the reason she has lasted this long. Hillary Clinton remains a remarkable woman and a strong candidate; it's just not enough to get you over the top against an even better candidate this election cycle.

by Brad G 2008-05-11 03:45AM | 0 recs

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So go already

Do you think anybody cares if you take your ball and go back home to McCain?

by Kobi 2008-05-11 11:29AM | 0 recs

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Ah yes

the Sunday Telegraph- a right wing, british paper gets the scoop on it all....

by linc 2008-05-11 12:35AM | 0 recs

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Re: Ah yes

lol

media: "once BO wins NC, the dam of superdelegates will burst"
so far not so much. weird considering he, his supporters and the media are declaring him the presumptive nominee - no?

by canadian gal 2008-05-11 01:01AM | 0 recs

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Re: Ah yes

there have been like 14 in the past two days

by amiches 2008-05-11 02:30AM | 0 recs

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Re: Ah yes

How many Obama superdelegates have flipped to support Clinton?

by ragekage 2008-05-11 06:22AM | 0 recs

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Current events disagree with you....

Not only does Obama now have MORE superdelegates than Clinton, he's gotten twenty six since MAY 4. Clinton since then? 1.5.

Not only has the dam burst, the flood is picking up momentum (see the NINE (9) SD's for Obama on Friday).

Expect more this week...

by Seeking Cincinnatus 2008-05-11 07:39AM | 0 recs

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Re: Barack Obama WILL Win Democratic Presidential

We all know Barack will win; thus why I am accepting him as the nominee. The numbers of SD's that have to go to Hill are almost impossible to attain, end of discussion.

But the question I have is this: wouldn't the Florida and Michigan delegate seating give Hillary more of a reason to stay in the race? I don't see how it could be politically expedient to help her get out of the race by seating the delegations in question, especially in full.

The only possible benefit I could see on that end is answering the question that Barack has ended with more delegates at the end of the day, with all 50 states counted. Maybe that's the road they are trying to go down.

I don't doubt that the delegations will be seated, but I still don't see how it could be used as a bargaining chip for Hillary's departure, like described above.

by zcflint05 2008-05-11 12:38AM | 0 recs

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Re: Barack Obama WILL Win Democratic Presidential

Seating FL and MI will end the nomination hunt for Senator Clinton. You cannot possibly fight for the voice of the people to be heard, their votes be counted, only to have the voice of the people be overturned by the super delegates.

by lizardbox 2008-05-11 12:44AM | 0 recs

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Re: Barack Obama WILL Win Democratic Presidential

That's how the Democratic nomination process works. Candidates can poach as many delegates from each other as they possibly can. She's entitled to do that just as Obama is.

by Little Otter 2008-05-11 01:33AM | 0 recs

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Re: Barack Obama WILL Win Democratic Presidential

Are you referring to superdelegates? Because it's not actually accurate. Even though HRC claims pledged delegates are not pledged, they actually are. You have to sign a pledge of support and get it notarized before you can even be a candidate to be a pledged delegate. So I'm not really sure where you're going with this.

by The Distillery 2008-05-11 02:16AM | 0 recs

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Re: Barack Obama WILL Win Democratic Presidential

Okay, and this year, part of the Democratic presidential nomination process is that votes in Michigan and Florida are not valid.

Which is it? Rules or democracy? You can't have it both ways.

by amiches 2008-05-11 02:32AM | 0 recs

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Re: Barack Obama WILL Win Democratic Presidential

Once Obama is over 2025 total delegates he probably gets another large bunch of uncommitted superdelegates, which would put him so far ahead that he could seat MI and FL and in that case he would be over 2209 or whatever the final number is. With that, Clinton's last justification for continuing to run would disappear, and it gives him a better image of legitimacy, that he won fair and square counting all 50 states, even in two that he couldn't compete with Hillary's name recognition in.

Obama probably already has a bunch of MI and FL superdelegates waiting to endorse, he's just been telling them to hold off due to the confusion of their status.

by Skaje 2008-05-11 02:01AM | 0 recs

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FL and MI

FL and MI did not hold valid elections. So, while everyone agreed that after the nomination was settled they would be seated in some manner, they were never going to be part of the decision process.

That said, Obama will have more delegates at the end of the process even if Florida and Michigan are seated in full. So, I think they will be seated in full. Whatever needs to be done will be done to prevent a battle at the convention.

I think everyone needs to relax at this point (assuming Hillary stops attacking the likely nominee and focuses on McCain, party unity, and important issues) and let the process play out. Three more weeks.

by map 2008-05-11 12:48AM | 0 recs

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Re: FL and MI

Yes, everyone should relax as long as you're getting your way. Like it or not, negative campaigning is a part of politics and has been used by both campaigns.

I'll never understand this stuff about how it's "ok" for Hillary to stay in the race as long as she doesn't say anything negative about the Obama campaign. It's like saying, play the fourth quarter, but only call running plays and don't try too hard to catch up. There certainly are tactics that would be unacceptable, but they would be tactics unacceptable at any point in the campaign.

by therealdeal 2008-05-11 01:06AM | 0 recs

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Bad analogy

They are saying, we have our presumptive nominee. There is no chance that Clinton can catch up in pledged delegates or popular vote. She is welcome to stay in the race, but it is very bad form for a [so called] Democrat to go negative on the Democratic presidential nominee.

by rf7777 2008-05-11 05:04AM | 0 recs

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Re: Bad analogy

Disagree with your take on the situation. She has a slim, probably very slim chance, but she can catch him in the popular vote with FL and MI included and make that case to the supers. More than likely that chance will disappear in the next few weeks, or the SDs will make it clear such a case is not convincing to them. Hillary should withdraw from the race at that time, but while she remains in the race she should proceed as normal.

by therealdeal 2008-05-11 11:32AM | 0 recs

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Re: Bad analogy

And by "proceed as normal" you mean going negative. I disagree. At some point, she (as a Democrat) needs to stop going negative on the presumptive Democratic nominee. Why can't she just campaign on her own merits to pass the time until May 20th?

by rf7777 2008-05-11 12:31PM | 0 recs

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Maybe, Maybe Not

If Obama has 120 super delegates ready to support him, he would announce them. this is fantasy - just like Gore getting ready to endorse him, and Edwards getting ready to endorse him BEFORE the NC primary. That didn't happen and this probably won't either. No one asks SD's to withhold their endorsement for more than a few days.

The thing Hillary has going for her is the same thing that is preventing more SDs from endorsing Obama - she runs better against McCain and her base is more reliable than a lot of Obama's base. Most of us have no confidence Obama really can win. Kerry and kennedy are so used to losing they aren't even bothering to try.

As far as I can tell, there is a slightly better than half chance he'll get the nomination. But if Rezko is convicted, particularly on the bribery charge (and his attorney presented no defense on his behalf), then it's a whole new ballgame for Obama - and his nomination gets a lot dicier.

There are a lot of us doing everything we can to prevent him from getting the nomination. I find his race baiting charges and his misogynist comments unworthy of any Democrat.

by Little Otter 2008-05-11 01:29AM | 0 recs

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Re: Maybe, Maybe Not

Actually if you'd read the article, they said they would not endorse until after June 3rd, unless HRC becomes more combative. Now, I don't know if it's true or not, but no you don't just release your SD's willy nilly. There is a strategy to their announcements, for both campaigns.

by The Distillery 2008-05-11 02:20AM | 0 recs

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he needs 2209 delegates - he will not get

and he will not have it until august: vote of superdelegates cannot be cast until convention.
meahwhile will win WV, KY, PR and may be something else, popular vote, FL&MI will be seated and eventually she will get enough supers.
If not McCain will win November.

by engels 2008-05-11 02:31AM | 0 recs

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Re: he needs 2209 delegates - he will not get

talk about a fairy tale

by amiches 2008-05-11 02:33AM | 0 recs

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Hillary Clinton WILL NOT win the nomination

With the super delegates Obama picked up yesterday combined with his current super and pledged delegate totals and after taking the Pelosi club and apportionment into account, it is now mathematically impossible for Hillary Clinton to win the nomination.

She's now got a very narrow window whereby she could also deny the nomination to Obama.

That window closes when Obama picks up 17 more super delegates.

by Walt Starr 2008-05-11 03:46AM | 0 recs

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Re: Barack Obama WILL Win Democratic Presidential

silly. to have a deal that seats the FL/MI delegations in exchange for their votes essentially not counting since it requires HRC to give up is insulting to anyone's intelligence.

they're essentially tied and the twisted bullying to force her out is only further alienating major blocks of voters. win the nom but lose the GE. that your plan?

by swissffun 2008-05-11 04:27AM | 0 recs

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Barack Obama is the Messiah.

1. Barack Obama will turn water into wine.

2. Barack Obama will heal the sick.

3. Barack Obama will feed the multitudes with five loaves and two fishes.

4. Barack Obama will walk on water.

5. Barack Obama will rewrite the Sermon on the Mount and make it better.

6. Barack Obama will raise the dead.

7. Barack Obama will die on the cross for the remission of sin.

8. Barack Obama will rise on the third day, ascend to the Father, and from there not just reign but on the last day, judge the deeds of women and men and send them to an everlasting reward.

Praise be to the Master of Life, Barack Obama, my Lord and my God.

by Beltway Dem 2008-05-11 04:36AM | 0 recs

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Didn't you read the diary

"Obama as the cult leader" was only a "BRIEF" meme. This is SOOOOOO two months ago.

by Slim Tyranny 2008-05-11 05:31AM | 0 recs

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Until he fixes

this messianic adoration thing, there's a snowball's chance in hell that I will support him.

by Beltway Dem 2008-05-11 06:00AM | 0 recs

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Re: Until he fixes

OH NOES!!! OMG!!! We can't win in November without Beltway Dem's support.

Please please please change your mind. We are doomed without you. I can't take four more years with Republican in the White House. The Horror!!

by Blue Neponset 2008-05-11 06:05AM | 0 recs

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haha

The problem is, the "messianic adoration thing" is only in your mind, and I'm not sure how Obama is supposed to "fix" a problem in your head.

by Slim Tyranny 2008-05-11 08:21AM | 0 recs

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Re: Until he fixes

So we'll mark Beltway Dem down for McCain?

by ReillyDiefenbach 2008-05-11 09:21AM | 0 recs

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Re: Barack Obama WILL Win Democratic Presidential

I think when the FL/MI group meets at the end of the month and the number changes to 2,208 (or 2209 whatever it is), after the June 3 contests, Hillary will be much closer to BO in pledged delegates (within 70-80) and she will have won the popular vote.

I believe if she takes it to the convention floor (which I hope she does) - she can and will prevail.

by nikkid 2008-05-11 07:38AM | 0 recs

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can't wait for the mission accomplished

victory declaration, before its over...

by 4justice 2008-05-11 09:10AM | 0 recs