2008 Poll digest: Nov 15, 2006

This is a "digest" of 2008 polls that I have come across since Obama entered the landscape.

The general trend is that, Obama has essentially risen to the number two spot for the nomination in national polls, but in strategic vision state polls (covering some key states), Gore is in a strong second place, somewhat ahead of Obama. Edwards is hovering around 10% in most polls, and hence remains a factor.

Recent National polls

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Nov. 9-12, 2006

N=544 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide
MoE ± 5.

Hillary Rodham Clinton     31
Barack Obama 19
John Edwards 10
Al Gore     9
John Kerry 7
Joe Biden 4
Wesley Clark 3
Bill Richardson 2
Evan Bayh 2
Russ Feingold 1
Tom Daschle 1
Christopher Dodd 1
Tom Vilsack 1
Someone else 2
None (vol.) 1
Unsure 6

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CNN Poll:
conducted by Opinion Research Corporation.
Oct. 27-29, 2006. N=472 registered voters nationwide who are Democrats or lean Democratic.
MoE ± 4.5.

         11/7 (8/30)

Hillary Clinton: 28 (38)

Barack Obama:    17 (na)
Al Gore:     13 (19)
John Edwards:     13 (12)
John Kerry:     12 (9)

Evan Bayh:     2 (2)
Joe Biden:     2 (3)
Russ Feingold:     2 (3)
Bill Richardson: 2 (3)
Tom Vilsack:     1 (-)

Unsure:         8 (8)

McLaughlin & Associates (R)

Nov. 7, 2006. N=1,000 Nov. 2006 general election voters nationwide.

Hillary Clinton: 31

Barack Obama:    19
Al Gore:     10
John Kerry:     10

John Edwards:      6
Joe Biden:      2
Bill Richardson:  2
Russ Feingold:      1
Evan Bayh:      1
Tom Vilsack:      -

Unsure:         18

Rasmussen: This survey of 1,170 Democrats and 232 unaffiliated voters who would vote in a Democratic Primary was conducted from November 4-7, 2006. In many states, unaffiliated voters are allowed to vote in party primaries.

Hillary Clinton: 29

Barack Obama:    22
Al Gore:     13
John Edwards:     10

John Kerry:      4

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Recent State polls (all from 11/06, pre-Obama numbers in Parens, when available. October)

Michigan (11/06)

Hillary Clinton 33%

Al Gore 17%
Barack Obama 15%
John Edwards 10%

Russ Feingold 6%
Wesley Clark 2%
John Kerry 1%
Joseph Biden 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Tom Vilsak 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Ed Rendell 1%
Christopher Dodd 1%
Undecided 10%

Florida (11/06)

Hillary Clinton 33%

Al Gore 16%
Barack Obama 15%
John Edwards 10%

Russ Feingold 4%
Wesley Clark 3%
John Kerry 1%
Joseph Biden 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Ed Rendell 1%
Tom Vilsack 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Christopher Dodd 1%
Undecided 12%

Pennsylvania

Hillary Clinton 32%

Al Gore 19%
Barack Obama 18%

John Edwards 6%
John Kerry 2%
Russ Feingold 2%
Wesley Clark 2%
Joseph Biden 1%
Christopher Dodd 1%
Ed Rendell 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Tom Vilsack 1%
Undecided 13%

Georgia
Pre-Obama (10/18)

Hillary Clinton 31% (33)

Al Gore 16% (20)
Barack Obama 16% (-)

John Edwards 9% (18)
Wesley Clark 3% (2)
Russ Feingold 2% (2)
John Kerry 1% (2)
Evan Bayh 1%
Joseph Biden 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Ed Rendell 1%
Tom Vilsack 1%
Chris Dodd 1%
Undecided 16% (16)

NJ (11/06)
Pre-Obama (10/05)

Hillary Clinton 33% (35)

Al Gore 17% (24)
Barack Obama 15% (-)

John Edwards 9% (12)
Russ Feingold 5% (5)
Christopher Dodd 4% (4)
John Kerry 2% (5)
Joseph Biden 1%
Wesley Clark 1%
Ed Rendell 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Tom Vilsack 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Undecided 9%

Washington (11/06)
Pre-Obama (10/20)

Hillary Clinton 32% (35)

Al Gore 23% (22)
John Edwards 10% (14)

Russ Feingold 7% (9)
Barack Obama 6% (-)
Wesley Clark 3% (3)
John Kerry 2% (5)
Joseph Biden 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Ed Rendell 1%
Tom Vilsack 1%
Christopher Dodd 1%
Undecided 11% (6)

Wisconsin (11/06)
Pre-Obama (10/11)

With Out Russ Feingold

Hillary Clinton 32% (30)

Al Gore 28% (30)
John Edwards 12% (14)

Barack Obama 9% (-)
John Kerry 1% (5)
Joseph Biden 1%
Wesley Clark 1%
Tom Vilsack 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Ed Rendell 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Christopher Dodd 1%
Undecided 11% (8)

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General Election matchup polls

this early in the game, these polls are only rough indicators, because most potential candidates are only getting started with their campaigns and hence these polls do not exactly reflect where things could stand in the fall of 2008.

First, Survey USA has released a MEGA 2008 poll of 60 different matchups, but they are available by subscription only, except for one free matchup per visitor. Results for some matchups can be found in this myDD diary.

Regular matchup polls are being posted by Rasmussen. Here are the current matchup standings for HRC, Gore, Obama vs McCain and Giuliani:


HRC

John McCain (R)      48%
Hillary Clinton (D)     43%
Some Other Candidate     5%
Not Sure     4%

Rudy Giuliani (R)      46%
Hillary Clinton (D)     46%
Some Other Candidate     4%
Not Sure     4%

Gore

John McCain (R)      48%
Al Gore (D)     41%
Some Other Candidate     7%
Not Sure     3%

Rudy Giuliani (R)      47%
Al Gore (D)     44%
Some Other Candidate     5%
Not Sure     4%

Obama

John McCain (R)      47%
Barack Obama (D)     39%
Some Other Candidate     8%
Not Sure     6%

Rudy Giuliani (R)      48%
Barack Obama (D)     39%
Some Other Candidate     7%
Not Sure     5%

Mitt Romney (R)      33%
Barack Obama (D)     48%
Some other candidate     9%
Not sure     10%

To follow is a poll including only the top four candidates in field polls. Please enjoy voting (please do not promote the poll in any mailing list, blog, or website. Thanks).

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, State polls, Strategic Vision (all tags)

Comments

1 Comment

You can now see all of the head-to-head 2008...

...Electoral College matchups for Free at SurveyUSA.

Looks like you still have to pay if you want to see the individual state-by-state percentages.

by MeanBoneII 2006-11-15 09:55PM | 0 recs

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